newsletter/2014/07 (Link Bibliography)

“newsletter/​2014/​07” links:

  1. https://gwern.substack.com

  2. 06

  3. Changelog

  4. Nootropics#lithium-experiment

  5. Nootropics#magnesium

  6. Zeo#magnesium-citrate

  7. Zeo#alcohol

  8. Zeo#bed-time-for-better-sleep

  9. Zeo#rise-time-for-productivity

  10. Causality

  11. Statistical-notes#estimating-censored-test-scores

  12. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tGWMRoYbuJLzCnCE4/fifty-shades-of-self-fulfilling-prophecy

  13. Notes#tv-the-matrix

  14. Notes#tradeoffs-and-costly-signaling-in-appearances-the-case-of-long-hair

  15. About#information-organizing

  16. Traffic#january-2014july-2014

  17. AB-testing#floating-footnotes

  18. AB-testing#indented-paragraphs

  19. https://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/08/health/08fat.html?pagewanted=all

  20. 2010-hatemi.pdf: ⁠, Peter K. Hatemi, John R. Hibbing, Sarah E. Medland, Matthew C. Keller, John R. Alford, Kevin B. Smith, Nicholas G. Martin, Lindon J. Eaves (2020-07-01; genetics  /​ ​​ ​heritable):

    Variance components estimates of political and social attitudes suggest a substantial level of genetic influence, but the results have been challenged because they rely on data from twins only. In this analysis, we include responses from parents and nontwin full siblings of twins, account for by using a panel design, and estimate genetic and environmental by maximum-likelihood ⁠. By doing so, we address the central concerns of critics, including that the twin-only design offers no verification of either the equal environments or random mating assumptions. Moving beyond the twin-only design leads to the conclusion that for most political and social attitudes, genetic influences account for an even greater proportion of individual differences than reported by studies using more limited data and more elementary estimation techniques. These findings make it increasingly difficult to deny that—however indirectly—genetics plays a role in the formation of political and social attitudes.

  21. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982214006770

  22. ⁠, Mary E. Ward, George McMahon, Beate St Pourcain, David M. Evans, Cornelius A. Rietveld, Daniel J. Benjamin, Philipp D. Koellinger, David Cesarini, SSGAC, George Davey Smith, Nicholas J. Timpson (2014-05-22):

    Genome-wide association study results have yielded evidence for the association of common genetic variants with crude measures of completed educational attainment in adults. Whilst informative, these results do not inform as to the mechanism of these effects or their presence at earlier ages and where educational performance is more routinely and more precisely assessed. Single nucleotide polymorphisms exhibiting genome-wide statistically-significant associations with adult educational attainment were combined to derive an unweighted allele score in 5,979 and 6,145 young participants from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children with key stage 3 national curriculum test results (SATS results) available at age 13 to 14 years in English and mathematics respectively. Standardised (z-scored) results for English and mathematics showed an expected relationship with sex, with girls exhibiting an advantage over boys in English (0.433 SD (95% 0.395, 0.470), p <10−10) with more similar results (though in the opposite direction) in mathematics (0.042 SD (95%CI 0.004, 0.080), p = 0.030). Each additional adult educational attainment increasing allele was associated with 0.041 SD (95%CI 0.020, 0.063), p = 1.79×10−04 and 0.028 SD (95%CI 0.007, 0.050), p = 0.01 increases in standardised SATS score for English and mathematics respectively. Educational attainment is a complex multifactorial behavioural trait which has not had heritable contributions to it fully characterised. We were able to apply the results from a large study of adult educational attainment to a study of child exam performance marking events in the process of learning rather than realised adult end product. Our results support evidence for common, small genetic contributions to educational attainment, but also emphasise the likely lifecourse nature of this genetic effect. Results here also, by an alternative route, suggest that existing methods for child examination are able to recognise early life variation likely to be related to ultimate educational attainment.

  23. 2014-cronqvist.pdf

  24. ⁠, Gustavson, Daniel E. Miyake, Akira Hewitt, John K. Friedman, Naomi P (2014):

    Previous research has revealed a moderate and positive correlation between procrastination and impulsivity. However, little is known about why these two constructs are related. In the present study, we used behavior-genetics methodology to test three predictions derived from an evolutionary account that postulates that procrastination arose as a by-product of impulsivity: (a) Procrastination is heritable, (b) the two traits share considerable genetic variation, and (c) goal-management ability is an important component of this shared variation. These predictions were confirmed. First, both procrastination and impulsivity were moderately heritable (46% and 49%, respectively). Second, although the two traits were separable at the phenotypic level (r = 0.65), they were not separable at the genetic level (r genetic = 1.0). Finally, variation in goal-management ability accounted for much of this shared genetic variation. These results suggest that procrastination and impulsivity are linked primarily through genetic influences on the ability to use high-priority goals to effectively regulate actions.

  25. https://orbis.stanford.edu/

  26. https://apps.cla.umn.edu/directory/items/publication/332768.pdf

  27. https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/07/biology-ideology-john-hibbing-negativity-bias

  28. https://qwantz.com/index.php?comic=2658

  29. http://www.meteo.mcgill.ca/~huardda/articles/fernbach13.pdf: “Political Extremism Is Supported by an Illusion of Understanding”

  30. ⁠, James C. Davie (1962-02):

    Revolutions are most likely to occur when a prolonged period of objective economic and social development is followed by a short period of sharp reversal. People then subjectively fear that ground gained with great effort will be quite lost; their mood becomes revolutionary. The evidence from Dorr’s Rebellion, the Russian Revolution, and the Egyptian Revolution supports this notion; tentatively, so do data on other civil disturbances. Various statistics—as on rural uprisings, industrial strikes, unemployment, and cost of living—may serve as crude indexes of popular mood. More useful, though less easy to obtain, are direct questions in cross-sectional interviews. The goal of predicting revolution is conceived but not yet born or mature

  31. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/30/world/africa/ransoming-citizens-europe-becomes-al-qaedas-patron.html

  32. http://www.wired.com/2013/06/love-and-terror-in-the-golden-age-of-hijacking/

  33. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/06/14/nsa-proof-encryption-exists-why-doesnt-anyone-use-it/

  34. https://www.pri.org/stories/2013-06-07/inside-united-states

  35. https://web.archive.org/web/20130622085022/http://www.laphamsquarterly.org:80/roundtable/roundtable/a-faithful-hound.php

  36. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2002/12/23/cat-people

  37. https://schoolgirlmilkycrisis.com/2013/06/24/4025/

  38. http://bldgblog.blogspot.com/2010/01/nakatomi-space.html

  39. https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2012/05/09/welcome-to-the-future-nauseous/

  40. https://www.econlib.org/archives/2011/10/teachers_and_in.html

  41. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/09/the-small-schools-myth.html

  42. http://www.exp-platform.com/Pages/ControlledExperimentsAtLargeScale.aspx

  43. http://www.wired.com/2012/12/what-does-randomness-look-like/

  44. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/02/upshot/how-not-to-be-misled-by-the-jobs-report.html

  45. http://projecteuclid.org/download/pdf_1/euclid.ss/1009213726

  46. http://lo-tho.blogspot.com/2014/07/more-distributed-vectors.html

  47. http://www.sophia.de/pdf/2014_PT-AI_polls.pdf

  48. https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/17/heartmath-considered-incoherent/

  49. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fnhum.2013.00291/full

  50. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PBRWb2Em5SNeWYwwB/humans-are-not-automatically-strategic

  51. 2014-rosenbaum.pdf

  52. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/20/business/sometimes-early-birds-are-too-early.html

  53. https://mathshistory.st-andrews.ac.uk/Extras/Poincare_Intuition/

  54. ⁠, Ut Na Sio, Thomas C. Ormerod (2009):

    A meta-analytic review of empirical studies that have investigated incubation effects on problem solving is reported. Although some researchers have reported increased solution rates after an incubation period (ie., a period of time in which a problem is set aside to further attempts to solve), others have failed to find effects. The analysis examined the contributions of moderators such as problem type, presence of solution-relevant or misleading cues, and lengths of preparation and incubation periods to incubation ⁠. The authors identified a positive incubation effect, with divergent thinking tasks benefiting more than linguistic and visual insight tasks from incubation. Longer preparation periods gave a greater incubation effect, whereas filling an incubation period with high cognitive demand tasks gave a smaller incubation effect. Surprisingly, low cognitive demand tasks yielded a stronger incubation effect than did rest during an incubation period when solving linguistic insight problems. The existence of multiple types of incubation effect provides evidence for differential invocation of knowledge-based vs. strategic solution processes across different classes of problem, and it suggests that the conditions under which incubation can be used as a practical technique for enhancing problem solving must be designed with care.

  55. https://rjlipton.wordpress.com/2013/06/25/it-takes-guts-to-do-research/

  56. ⁠, Wilson, Timothy D. Reinhard, David A. Westgate, Erin C. Gilbert, Daniel T. Ellerbeck, Nicole Hahn, Cheryl Brown, Casey L. Shaked, Adi (2014):

    In 11 studies, we found that participants typically did not enjoy spending 6 to 15 minutes in a room by themselves with nothing to do but think, that they enjoyed doing mundane external activities much more, and that many preferred to administer electric shocks to themselves instead of being left alone with their thoughts. Most people seem to prefer to be doing something rather than nothing, even if that something is negative.

  57. weexperimentonhumanbeings.html

  58. https://thepsychologist.bps.org.uk/volume-27/edition-7/trail-elusive-successful-psychopath

  59. http://www.olerogeberg.com/2013/03/cannabis-iq-and-socio-economic-status.html

  60. https://www.funraniumlabs.com/2013/06/alcoholism-in-antarctica

  61. http://rjlipton.wordpress.com/2014/07/25/an-old-galactic-result/

  62. http://www.wired.com/2013/06/startup-skybox/

  63. https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2013/06/01/harnessing-human-computation

  64. http://www.buzzfeed.com/joshdean/are-we-warming-up-to-cryonics

  65. 2013-adkison-wizardsofthecostequitydistribution.html

  66. https://www.cato-unbound.org/2013/06/18/editors/comments

  67. https://www.clevelandfed.org/research/commentary/2012/2012-13.cfm

  68. 2013-06-24-schou-devilgametheory.html

  69. 2014-tamerlane-animeyearbyyear-2001.html

  70. https://old.reddit.com/r/HPMOR/comments/1h10vl/harry_potter_fanfiction_data_most_popular/

  71. http://www.coldbacon.com/writing/borges-quixote.html

  72. http://www.gutenberg.org/files/29614/29614-h/29614-h.htm

  73. Books#past-present-and-future-of-statistical-science-lin-2014

  74. Books#pioneers-of-soviet-computing-malinovsky-2010

  75. Books#eragon-paolini-2005

  76. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxx4fdpiYu4

  77. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_FSoDjqLIU

  78. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3AskhHOWD4

  79. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPr86dcnvpU

  80. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEA0o9Sydnw

  81. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=101BoAScs2M

  82. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wB240PC-MDQ

  83. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/243666993/music/%E3%81%B0%E3%82%93%E3%81%97-%E5%8E%84%E7%A5%9Edays-%E5%8E%84%E7%A5%9E%E6%A7%98%E3%81%AE%E9%80%9A%E5%AD%A6%E8%B7%AF.ogg

  84. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/243666993/music/%E3%81%B0%E3%82%93%E3%81%97-%E5%8E%84%E7%A5%9Edays-%E4%BB%8A%E6%97%A5%E3%82%82%E3%81%8F%E3%82%8B%E3%81%8F%E3%82%8B.ogg

  85. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRbpkM9uy1k

  86. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/280585369/music/xe-bracingskyblue-%E6%B7%B1%E5%A4%9C%E3%81%AE%E3%83%AC%E3%83%88%E3%83%AD%E3%82%B9%E3%83%9A%E3%82%AF%E3%83%86%E3%82%A3%E3%83%96%E5%A4%A9%E6%B0%97%E4%BA%88%E5%A0%B1.ogg

  87. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6a3ZQEg59uQ

  88. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efDAJwp_FqU

  89. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziPOl5Sspf8

  90. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iuk_mUdK288

  91. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/5317066/music/%E7%8B%90%E5%A4%A2%E6%83%B3-%E6%9D%B1%E6%96%B9vgm-merrychristmaswrnightbug.ogg

  92. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bwG0OYcFjI

  93. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0mzaCoYuJA

  94. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/5317066/music/toy-%E5%8D%94%E5%A5%8F%E7%AC%A6%E3%80%8C%E6%8B%BE%E9%81%BA%E7%89%A9%E8%AA%9E%E3%80%8D-bonustrack.ogg

  95. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/182368464/music/%E5%BD%BC%E3%81%AE%E4%B8%96%E3%81%AB%E5%AC%A2%E3%81%AE%E4%BA%A1%E9%AA%B8.ogg

  96. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtgUz7GjdvI

  97. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0Nz3wxaNy8

  98. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tu4C92w1DOI

  99. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVdb5v6kEnE

  100. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOyNihvpi8s

  101. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVH6t7nwfc4

  102. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1GThSDMOZk

  103. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEphsKl1g9M

  104. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fh8QtCO-wQ4

  105. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7GTkkA2q8o

  106. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-8L21tDmpo

  107. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUgMjTGavW8

  108. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qes0sfpkGPM

  109. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddXn9NGpuIA

  110. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QoeNKZsG-CM

  111. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z-WQIrDAMQ

  112. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ2YCtHkCrk

  113. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXXwkzB5eoY