The Ups and Downs of the Hope Function In a Fruitless Search

On Bayesian updating of beliefs in sequentially searching a set of possibilities where failure is possible, such as waiting for a bus; the psychologically counterintuitive implication is that success on the next search increases even as the total probability of success decreases.
topics: psychology, statistics, survey, Bayes
created: 01 Jul 2012; modified: 1 Apr 2019; status: finished; confidence: log; importance: 4


This transcript has been prepared from of chapter 15, pages 353-377 in 1994, edited by G. Wright & P. Ayton. All links are my own insertion; references have been inserted as footnotes at the first citation.


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  9. Konold, C., Lohmeier, J., Pollatsek, A., Well, A., Falk, R. & Lipson, A. (1991) “Novice views on randomness”. Proceedings of the Thirteenth Annual Meeting of the International Group for the Psychology of mathematics Education - North American Chapter, 1, 167-73.↩︎

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  11. Hacking, I. (1975) . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.↩︎

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