The Ups and Downs of the Hope Function In a Fruitless Search

On Bayesian updating of beliefs in sequentially searching a set of possibilities where failure is possible, such as waiting for a bus; the psychologically counterintuitive implication is that success on the next search increases even as the total probability of success decreases.
topics: psychology, statistics, survey, Bayes
created: 01 Jul 2012; modified: 1 Apr 2019; status: finished; confidence: log; importance: 4

This transcript has been prepared from of chapter 15, pages 353-377 in 1994, edited by G. Wright & P. Ayton. All links are my own insertion; references have been inserted as footnotes at the first citation.

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  4. Meshalkin, L.D. (1973) (L.F. Boron & B.A. Haworth, trans.) Noordhoff, Leyden, The Netherlands (Original work published 1963).↩︎

  5. Falk, R. (1993) . AK Peters, Wellesley, Ma.↩︎

  6. Gabriel, K.R. (1960) . Doctoral dissertation (in Hebrew with English summary). The Hebrew University, Jerusalem.↩︎

  7. Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1982) “Evidential impact of base rates”. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic & A. Tversky (eds.), . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pages 153-60.↩︎

  8. Falk, R. & Konold, C. (1992) . In F.S. Gordon & S.P. Gordon (eds.), . The Mathematical Association of America, USA, pages 151-64.↩︎

  9. Konold, C., Lohmeier, J., Pollatsek, A., Well, A., Falk, R. & Lipson, A. (1991) “Novice views on randomness”. Proceedings of the Thirteenth Annual Meeting of the International Group for the Psychology of mathematics Education - North American Chapter, 1, 167-73.↩︎

  10. Gigerenzer, G., Switjink, Z., Porter, T., Daston, L., Beatty, J. & Krueger, L. (1989) . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.↩︎

  11. Hacking, I. (1975) . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.↩︎

  12. Ennis, J. (1985) . New Scientist, May, 26-28.↩︎