The Ups and Downs of the Hope Function In a Fruitless Search

On Bayesian updating of beliefs in sequentially searching a set of possibilities where failure is possible, such as waiting for a bus; the psychologically counterintuitive implication is that success on the next search increases even as the total probability of success decreases.
psychology⁠, statistics⁠, survey⁠, Bayes⁠, insight-porn
by: Ruma Falk, Abigail Lipson, Clifford Konold 2012-07-012019-04-01 finished certainty: log importance: 4 bibliography

This transcript has been prepared from a scan of chapter 15, pages 353–377 in Subjective Probability 1994, edited by G. Wright & P. Ayton. All links are my own insertion; references have been inserted as footnotes at the first citation.

  1. Bell, C.R. (1979) “Psychological aspects of probability and uncertainty”. In C.R. Bell (ed.), Uncertain Outcomes, MTP Press, Lancaster, England, pages 5–21.↩︎

  2. Jones, D.E.H. (1966) “On being blinded with science”. New Scientist, November, 465–7.↩︎

  3. Feller, W. (1957) An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications⁠, Vol. 1 (2nd edition). Wiley, New York.↩︎

  4. Meshalkin, L.D. (1973) Collection of Problems in Probability Theory (L.F. Boron & B.A. Haworth, trans.) Noordhoff, Leyden, The Netherlands (Original work published 1963).↩︎

  5. Falk, R. (1993) Understanding Probability and Statistics: A Book of Problems⁠. AK Peters, Wellesley, Ma.↩︎

  6. Gabriel, K.R. (1960) Nuptiality and Fertility in Israel⁠. Doctoral dissertation (in Hebrew with English summary). The Hebrew University, Jerusalem.↩︎

  7. Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1982) “Evidential impact of base rates”. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic & A. Tversky (eds.), Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases⁠. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pages 153–60.↩︎

  8. Falk, R. & Konold, C. (1992) “The psychology of learning probability”⁠. In F.S. Gordon & S.P. Gordon (eds.), Statistics for the Twenty-First Century. The Mathematical Association of America, USA, pages 151–64.↩︎

  9. Konold, C., Lohmeier, J., Pollatsek, A., Well, A., Falk, R. & Lipson, A. (1991) “Novice views on randomness”. Proceedings of the 13th Annual Meeting of the International Group for the Psychology of mathematics Education—North American Chapter, 1, 167–73.↩︎

  10. Gigerenzer, G., Switjink, Z., Porter, T., Daston, L., Beatty, J. & Krueger, L. (1989) The Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday Life⁠. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.↩︎

  11. Hacking, I. (1975) The Emergence of Probability⁠. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.↩︎

  12. Ennis, J. (1985) “Statistics, St Petersburg and Sellafield”⁠. New Scientist, May, 26–28.↩︎