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[–]CallMeOatmealLoves driving (but not all of it) 43 points44 points  (94 children)

Full text:

Waymo has begun charging passengers in Arizona for rides in its autonomous cars, making it the first self-driving car developer to launch commercial services.

Ruth Porat, finance chief at Google’s parent company Alphabet, which counts Waymo among what it calls its “other bets”, revealed the milestone on Thursday’s earnings call.

Ms Porat said that Waymo had expanded the number of people participating in its “early rider” programme during the third quarter, and is “beginning to test pricing models” in the Phoenix suburbs, where it has been piloting autonomous vehicles since 2016.

“We moved into very early days of commercialisation, we do now have people paying for rides,” she told analysts, while adding that the venture was still in the “very early days”.

The development marks a win for Waymo as it races against rivals including Uber, General Motors’ Cruise and Zoox to bring a long-awaited “robo-taxi” service to market.

Investors have become increasingly interested in Waymo’s commercial potential, after nearly a decade of development — the business started out as Google’s self-driving car project within its experimental X lab in 2009.

Thursday’s news will also come as a boost to advocates of self-driving systems, who claim the technology can save lives and improve access to mobility services, at a time when doubts have grown about its reliability and slow progress towards commercialisation.

Incidents such as an autonomous Uber vehicle’s fatal collision with a pedestrian in nearby Tempe, Arizona, have raised questions about whether self-driving cars can live up to their early hype, despite billions of dollars of investment across the automotive and technology industries.

Waymo began offering passengers rides in its self-driving cars in April 2017. In and around Phoenix, hundreds of families can use its app to hail a robo-taxi — many of which still employ a safety driver as a back-up — to destinations in a 100-square-mile testing zone. It is also testing its autonomous systems in 24 other US cities, including the San Francisco Bay Area.

Ride-sharing is the “perfect first use case” for autonomous cars, Waymo chief John Krafcik said in a recent interview with Condé Nast Traveler. “It will enable more people to try the technology more quickly when you can buy just a little slice of transportation for $6.”

Waymo announced earlier this month that its autonomous vehicles had driven more than 10m miles on public roads, up from 5m in February. It took until 2015 to clock up its first 1m miles. Almost 7bn miles have also been driven in computer simulations to help refine its algorithms.

But until now, those services has not generated meaningful income for Waymo. Wall Street analysts have only recently begun to assess Waymo’s potential value, with some estimating that it could be worth tens of billions of dollars to Alphabet in the coming years.

Alphabet’s “other bets” — which also include Verily, its life sciences unit, and biotech researcher Calico — brought in revenues of just $117m in the third quarter, up 25 per cent on the same period last year, the company said on Thursday. Operating losses from “other bets” increased by 12 per cent, to $727m, in the three months ending in September.

Those businesses will become increasingly important to Alphabet as growth at Google slows. Youssef Squali, analyst at SunTrust Robinson Humphries, said that Waymo would be “the next exciting story they’re going to roll out” for investors.

ARK Invest, a research group, has predicted that two out of every 1,000 miles driven in US urban areas could be in a Waymo autonomous car by 2020. Waymo has already struck deals with automakers such as Fiat Chrysler and Jaguar to deploy tens of thousands of self-driving cars. It has also entered local partnerships around Phoenix with businesses including Walmart and Avis to deliver customers to their stores.

“Once all 80,000 vehicles hit its fleet, Waymo could address half of Phoenix’s travel needs, or 0.3 per cent of US urban vehicle miles travelled,” ARK wrote in a research note earlier this year.

While Waymo is still deciding how much it ultimately plans to charge consumers for its rides, ARK has estimated that robo-taxis might cost 35 cents per mile, include 5 cents to cover the cost of remote operators who monitor the vehicles and intervene when something goes wrong.

Edit: to the nerd who reported my comment to me for "copywrite (sic) infringement", snitches get stitches.

[–]JimmyX10 22 points23 points  (82 children)

Is 35c a mile expensive? How much do regular taxis cost there?

[–]3plus3strings 47 points48 points  (36 children)

I lease a car for $175 a month, 15000 miles. $100 for gas per month, $100 for insurance. $375 * 12 = $4500. $4500/15000 miles = $0.30 per mile. Doesn't include maintenance. If there is a service for $0.35 a mile, with better safety than myself driving, I'm switching

[–]michelework 25 points26 points  (27 children)

I like your math, but you also need to factor in your time spent at the oil change shop, the tire shop, time spent refueling, time spent cleaning, topping off windshield wiper fluid. Also time hunting for parking. All these little and minor nuances of owning a car all add up. Also time spent driving is better spent resting, reading or socializing with your friends and famiy.

Exciting times. Can't wait to see what actually happens.

[–]cryptoz 8 points9 points  (6 children)

All these little and minor nuances of owning a car all add up

Okay, but a ride share / on demand car service has flaws too. I live in a moderate sized city with a solid Uber/Lyft demand, but I routinely have to wait in the freezing cold for ~20 minutes while I wait for the system to find a car and send it here.

It's not all roses, there are major inconveniences associated with an on-demand car service as well. I use them daily, I love them, but suggesting that they solve all problems and don't also make you wait or inconvenience you is ridiculous, that happens daily still. The problems are smaller, but there are new problems that come with the tech.

Yes I know Waymo isn't Lyft or Uber, by the way. But how fast will Waymo arrive and will it be reliable? Or will it some times take 2 minutes to arrive and sometimes 25?

[–]toprim 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am perplexed that there is very little information on how do you communicate now with Waymo's Chrysler Pacifics.

I imagine ot would be like an Uber/Lyft app.

What do you do to quickly stop the car if you need to urgently change directions?

[–][deleted]  (2 children)

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    [–]cryptoz 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    I've waited 35-40 minutes before. It depends on the type of drivers around you. I don't mean 20 minutes on 1 driver - usually Lyft will cycle through (or force me to cycle through) 3-4 drivers if they wait is going to be that long. It will go like this:

    Lyft assigns a driver. 4 minute wait. Driver doesn't move for 3 minutes. I cancel and get another Lyft. 8 minute wait. After 3 minutes of the driver coming towards me, Lyft cancels that driver and 'finds a better one'. Picks another drive that is 5 minutes away. Fine. I wait 5 minutes, the driver hasn't moved yet. Cancel. Get another Lyft, driver is 3 minutes away, picks me up.

    Happens maybe once a month? Not often really, but often enough that when it happens in below-freezing weather it can be a big deal.

    [–]3plus3strings 7 points8 points  (2 children)

    Agreed. Buying time and increased safety is something that's hard to put a price on, but for me it's at least $0.05 a mile. I think even $0.50 a mile makes me think about dumping my personal car.

    [–]aesu 1 point2 points  (1 child)

    My local train network charges about $0.50 a mile, for short journeys. I would happily pay more for a self driving cab. People already pay $2+ a mile, for a cab. Competition will obviously drive down rates, with many companies moving into self driving, and the insane economies of scale running a massive fleet, and the traffic planning, mileage and wear improements which come with self driving tech mean $0.20 miles are probably a real possibility in the next decade. It will becomes expensive to own and drive your own car, doubly so if you include for your own time which you can spend working/resting/whatever.

    [–]DoctorSteve 4 points5 points  (4 children)

    Time spent hunting for parking and money paid for parking >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> time spent filling windshield wiper fluid

    [–]michelework -1 points0 points  (3 children)

    It all adds up...

    [–]DoctorSteve 0 points1 point  (2 children)

    Not really.

    I enjoy taking care of my car. I don't enjoy parking and walking.

    [–]michelework 1 point2 points  (1 child)

    Your in the minority. Most people I have met dread maintenance. People love transportation and the freedom it provides, but would gladly surrender the required maintenance.

    [–]DoctorSteve 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    There is a big difference between maintenance and windshield wiper fluid. And even with all maintenance added up, you are not convincing anyone of the benefits of self driving cars with "you don't have to lose time maintaining it". Time and money for parking sure, but the COST of maintaining a car is a huge selling point for a self driving car. Go with that.

    [–]Ol0O01100lO1O1O1 2 points3 points  (3 children)

    but you also need to factor in your time spent at the oil change shop, the tire shop, time spent refueling, time spent cleaning, topping off windshield wiper fluid. Also time hunting for parking.

    I generally just drop my car off for an oil change or tire change and go in my girlfriend's car, but let's work it out. At most two hours per year for oil changes. Two hours every four years for tires, so half an hour per year. 4 hours for refueling, and I do most of my day-to-day tidying while it's filling up. I don't wash my car as often as I should, but let's say 4 hours a year. I don't live in a big city, so parking is a non-issue. Add in some random maintenance and let's call it an hour per month, which is an overstatement.

    But if we're going to do that, we also have to factor in time spent waiting for vehicles. I take an average of about three trips per day. If we assume even two minutes average waiting for vehicles, that's three hours per month.

    [–][deleted]  (2 children)

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      [–]CallMeOatmealLoves driving (but not all of it) 2 points3 points  (1 child)

      Most people use their garages for storage and workshop space. Also "most people" don't have garages. Out of the 6 or so relatives I have who are home owners I'm the only one who has a garage, and it's detached.

      [–]Mr_Icer 0 points1 point  (1 child)

      Is the car going to be waiting in your driveway in the morning the minute you walk out the door?

      [–]michelework 0 points1 point  (0 children)

      Absolutely. Google already knows your commute plans. They can easilly have a car situated immediately nearby to coincide with your commute plans. They have been using the android phones and know how many cars to build and how to distribute them so they are readily accessible for it's users.

      Once the cars become available, they'll push a phone update and tethered on the bottom of your phone adjacent to the home button will be the Waymo car app. They'll gift you a 1,OOO free miles to get you hooked good.

      That's my prediction.

      If you add an event in Google calendar, or accept an event via Facebook, there will be a radio button for ' arrive via waymo' which will send a car to wherever you are to transport you to the event. Remember Google already knows where you are and where you want to go via your smart phone.

      Exciting times, can't wait to see what actually happens. I'm in California and Google has received approval for truly empty cars to be driven.

      [–]pirateninjamonkey 0 points1 point  (4 children)

      ...when you lease, do you pay for our changes yourself? Never leased before.

      [–]minor_correction 0 points1 point  (0 children)

      The details of a lease can vary, but generally speaking, when you lease a car you are responsible for taking care of all the scheduled maintenance. That could mean doing it yourself or paying a shop to do it.

      This is not to be confused with the warranty. If a part breaks when it shouldn't have (for example, the windows or door locks stop working) then the warranty would function normally and hopefully fully cover the repair.

      [–]DoctorSteve 0 points1 point  (2 children)

      When you lease generally you pay for one service. First service is covered by the dealer and you turn it in at it's third service. Not sure you'd even need an oil change.

      [–][deleted]  (1 child)

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        [–]DoctorSteve 1 point2 points  (0 children)

        Logging 45000 in three years on a lease - bold strategy.

        [–]bandalorian 0 points1 point  (0 children)

        Also, I can sleep anywhere anytime. I have no problem with sleeping 3-4 hours per night if I can get a couple of 30 min naps in during the day, I just sit down somewhere quiet and let the magic happen. My commute is currently 45 mins each way, so I'd probably just use that for sleeping and have more time to do stuff at home. That would make a huge difference, I'd essentially get all lost commuting time back. I have a nice car and love driving it, but I'll drop it like a bad habit if I can make the sleepwagon thing work, esp since I'm way over 35 cents per mile. And I live in AZ and currently going through the application process with Waymo so this might be happening sooner than later xD

        [–]mhornberger 6 points7 points  (4 children)

        If there is a service for $0.35 a mile, with better safety than myself driving, I'm switching

        I'd pay that much just for the car not being my problem. Granted, it also wouldn't be my asset, but not being on the hook for unexpected maintenance, accidents, vandalism, etc is worth money to me. The older I get, the more valuable "not my problem" has gotten for me.

        [–]minor_correction 2 points3 points  (2 children)

        The older I get, the more valuable "not my problem" has gotten for me.

        Same reason I would gladly pay more for single-payer health care. If I could just pay my taxes and never look at another doctor's office bill or insurance policy ever again, but instead just know that everything is taken care of and I don't have to worry about it, I wouldn't mind paying more than I do now.

        [–][deleted]  (1 child)

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          [–]minor_correction 0 points1 point  (0 children)

          What is your profession specifically?

          [–]WeldAE 0 points1 point  (0 children)

          I think the big kicker for a lot of people will be when their 2nd car dies or needs like $2k in repairs and they are facing putting down $2k or more on a new lease or even more for a new car. Spending a few dollars a day might seem much better in that moment no matter what their reservations about it might be. Heck, it could even be more expensive and you would probably do it for months before you committed to parting with a big chunk of money.

          [–]Hoss2626 0 points1 point  (0 children)

          That is a REALLY inexpensive lease.

          [–]toprim 0 points1 point  (0 children)

          Is your car better than Chrysler Pacific or worth?

          [–]WeldAE 0 points1 point  (0 children)

          First, you are doing better than me at not spending a ton on transit so don't take my comments as a criticism. I think you are leaving some costs out of the picture. You're assuming you actually hit the 15k/year which is above average number of miles. If you only go average distance of 12,500 this ups your costs to $0.36/mile. Even worse you are assuming you don't go over which incurs a steep penalty from what I understand but this is very contract specific so it's hard to estimate for your situation.

          Next you are leaving off your down payment you must have paid to get into this lease. I picked the cheapest lease I could find which was a Subaru Impreza which is $175 for 15k miles with $2k down. Since this is a one time cost lets assume this is a 5 year lease so this is another ~0.03/mile in costs.

          Finally other than BMW, I don't think any leases include standard maintenance like oil changes and tire replacements. According to KBB for a Subaru Impreza this would be another $0.08/mile over 5 years.

          So if you perfectly hit the 15k miles/year I would think you would be closer to $0.40/mile. If you don't you would be closer to $0.46/mile. As stated by others, this also doesn't include parking costs or your dealing with the car.

          [–]fartinthewind69 11 points12 points  (0 children)

          Phoenix Uber rates: "Rides pay a per-mile charge of 90 cents, a per-minute rate of 9 cents and a booking fee of $1.80. The minimum fare is $5 including the booking fee. Sky Harbor passengers will pay an additional $3.25"

          [–]iphonehome9 12 points13 points  (2 children)

          Uber is approximately $2 per mile.

          [–]derangedkilr 2 points3 points  (0 children)

          (Sorry for metric and Australian dollars) waymo is 75c/km while the bus is 20c/km and Uber is $1.4/km

          Buses are still a lot cheaper but it’s definitely a 50% saving or more compared to taxi/ride sharing.

          I can’t wait for an automated bus service.

          [–]JimmyX10 4 points5 points  (0 children)

          Oh wow, big difference then!

          [–]danweber 2 points3 points  (0 children)

          And is this a rate that covers their costs, or is it still subsidized?

          I like that they are charging: it shows the market is maturing, and people will demand more of a service that they are paying for. I just wonder how far we are along the slope.

          [–]testedonsheep 3 points4 points  (37 children)

          It's not expensive, but it's not "autonomous ride sharing is going to replace your car" cheap.

          [–][deleted]  (32 children)

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            [–]danweber 1 point2 points  (1 child)

            I like your comment and you call out about using transport for work, but that still leaves lots of people who all need a car at two times per day (morning rush hour, evening rush hour).

            I encourage car sharing, but it's not for everyone, and there are negative side effects in no longer owning things. Compare to the Warner streaming service that is shutting down now: owning physical media isn't as convenient but you are protected against someone else deciding one day that the service isn't worth their time.

            [–]Airazz 3 points4 points  (29 children)

            Regardless of gas, maintenance, insurance, depreciation etc. you can easily hit 6,000.

            All of those things cost money in a SDC too. Guess who will pay for it.

            [–]TheVenetianMask 3 points4 points  (13 children)

            The riders that pay $10 a ride while maximizing the usage of a vehicle from a fleet that can get bulk discounts for maintenance.

            [–]Airazz 4 points5 points  (12 children)

            Maximizing the usage does not lower the price by much. Cost of fuel doesn't change, oil isn't cheaper, neither are tires. Insurance would probably be way more expensive because the vehicle would be on the road all the time.

            [–]Ajedi32 1 point2 points  (11 children)

            Cost of fuel doesn't change, oil isn't cheaper, neither are tires

            Not true. All of that is cheaper when you buy in bulk.

            Insurance would probably be way more expensive because the vehicle would be on the road all the time

            Insurance will be way cheaper per-mile, since Waymo can self-insure and since self-driving cars will be less likely to get into accidents than human-driven cars.

            [–]Airazz 3 points4 points  (10 children)

            Not true. All of that is cheaper when you buy in bulk.

            Yes, but not by much. A few percent at most, because profit margins aren't that huge to begin with. Ask a truck driver (who works for a large logistics company) how much they pay for fuel.

            Also, the car itself depreciates. If used all the time, it will be gone in 2-3 years, so the owner has to recoup the cost of the vehicle in that time, AND make a profit doing it. Guess where the profit comes from? Yes, from the consumer.

            since self-driving cars will be less likely to get into accidents than human-driven cars.

            We don't know that. At the moment they're not better than a decent human driver. Nobody knows how long it will take before they are.

            I have a pretty good real-life example for my statements. We have a car-sharing company in my city. This company has around a thousand vehicles all over the place. You pick one, unlock with an app, drive it around, lock with the same app and then your credit card is charged for how long you used the car. No monthly payments, everything is included in their per-minute rate. A competing company even has some Teslas in their fleet, so the user-facing side of SDC sharing is functional, it's just that you can't tell the cars to come to you yet, you have to walk.

            Using these cars is way cheaper than taxis, the Economy-class vehicles (Fiat 500 and such) are around 6 euro per hour, 50km is included in the price. They're not cheaper than buying and daily-driving an identical car, though.

            They work great for people who need a car just once or twice per week, but it would get very expensive very quickly if you used that service every day.

            [–]Ajedi32 0 points1 point  (9 children)

            Yes, but not by much.

            I didn't say it'd be much, but every little bit counts.

            Also, the car itself depreciates.

            Deprecation-per-mile is also lower for self-driving-cars, since the car is in use a much larger percentage of the time. It sits idle collecting rust far less often then a typical manually driven car.

            We don't know that. At the moment they're not better than a decent human driver.

            Well, it's true we have rather limited stats on self-driving accidents so far, but the information we do have is rather encouraging. 5 million miles without a single injury, and only one accident caused by the vehicle itself (which was a minor fender bender).

            Even if they aren't safer now though, self-driving car services ultimately will be safer than human-driven cars before they launch, because if they're not then they won't be allowed on public roads for long.

            I have a pretty good real-life example for my statements. We have a car-sharing company in my city. [...] They work great for people who need a car just once or twice per week, but it would get very expensive very quickly if you used that service every day.

            Interesting example. It'd be interested to find out why that service is so expensive. I'd assume its mostly a result of high profit margins, but I'm certainly open to alternative explanations.

            [–][deleted]  (14 children)

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              [–]Airazz 2 points3 points  (13 children)

              Well it won’t be me.

              It will be you, the consumer. Waymo servise is, well, a service. Waymo isn't a charity, they're here to make a profit. You will pay for everything, every expense, plus a little bit extra to make a profit for them.

              People say that Waymo will get way better deals because they'll be ordering cars/parts in bulk. Well, what if the owners of private cars teamed up and bought large quantities of cars/parts together?

              [–][deleted]  (12 children)

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                [–]Airazz -1 points0 points  (11 children)

                Short-term car rentals already exist, you don't have to pay the driver because you're driving. It's not cheaper than driving your own car.

                [–][deleted]  (10 children)

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                  [–]bartturner 13 points14 points  (2 children)

                  What? That is crazy cheap if accurate. 55.5 cents is the IRS deduct fee.

                  [–]vicegripper 0 points1 point  (1 child)

                  That is crazy cheap if accurate.

                  Agreed. I think $.35/mile is fantasy or a loss-leader rate to gain early market share. Remember that Uber still loses money at much higher prices.

                  [–]bartturner 0 points1 point  (0 children)

                  At scale they should be able to get to .55 cents with 25%+ margins. But that takes getting to scale which should be their #1 goal with safety. At that price should have no problem with demand.

                  [–]brettins 0 points1 point  (0 children)

                  It's cheaper per mile than driving your own car if you factor in maintenance.

                  [–]CirqueKid 1 point2 points  (1 child)

                  Phoenix resident here.

                  Uber’s fees in the area are the following:

                  Base fare: $0.40

                  Service fee: $2.65

                  Per minute: $0.17

                  Per mile: $0.81

                  [–]bartturner 0 points1 point  (0 children)

                  That sounds more realistic. 35 cents was too cheap. I also am skeptical can make money at 35 cents a mile.

                  I do think at scale can get to about 55 cents a mile with 25% margins. But that is at scale. Will lose a ton of money on the trip to scale and then make tons of money.

                  BTW, it is NOT simply electric versus ICE.

                  [–]madcuzimflagrant 4 points5 points  (9 children)

                  So not truly commercial yet as it is part of an expanded early rider program, but definitely a great sign. I doubt they would move from this into open commercialization before the end of the year though.

                  [–]WeldAE 3 points4 points  (8 children)

                  I agree, that article didn't give me the warm fuzzy feeling that they will have open commercial operation by the end of the year. I've launched more than a dozen retail products in my career and I know how hard it is to estimate and pull off. Given the scope of this product I'm fine with giving Waymo +/- 2 years to negotiate unknown unknowns. Until they announced 2018, I thought they wouldn't launch until 2020 so I'm fine if they miss 2018. I think GM is even further off and can't possibly launch until 2021 at this point from what I've read.

                  I feel a lot of participants on this forum will be decrying the obvious fraud of AVs on 1/1/2019 if Waymo doesn't launch.

                  [–]ExtremelyQualified 1 point2 points  (7 children)

                  Cruise CEO reiterated next year pretty recently.

                  [–]Mattsasa 1 point2 points  (6 children)

                  ? I don’t think he did ?

                  Was a long while since he said 2019, and even that he implied it likely won’t happen

                  [–]ExtremelyQualified 1 point2 points  (5 children)

                  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-selfdriving-cruise-insight/gms-driverless-car-bet-faces-long-road-ahead-idUSKCN1MY0CK

                  “Based on where we’re at and where we’ve been, we’re on track to hit that” 2019 goal, Vogt said.

                  [–]WeldAE 0 points1 point  (4 children)

                  I agree they say they are but I have a lot of doubt. Maybe they are hiding a 1000 person test rider program somewhere and no one has noticed. I think they need another year to get to that point and at least another year to give internal rides before they will be anywhere near ready. Waymo is about a year in and they might need another year with more riders. I hope I'm wrong though.

                  [–]ExtremelyQualified 1 point2 points  (3 children)

                  [–]WeldAE 0 points1 point  (2 children)

                  Thanks for the link. I was aware of this program but my impression is that it was of very limited scale. The article you linked makes it seem like they have deployed it at much larger scale. They say "grow by more than 100 vehicles in the next months" but don't say where it started from. Do you think they have 200 cars maybe?

                  Also, based on my own experience dogfooding products, it is extremely important but only takes you so far. With say 200 cars and no external rider testing can they launch can they really launch in 2019? Maybe they have 600 cars like Waymo by now and they launch a closed rider program in November. I guess that would put them on track for 2019 if they are in the same place Waymo was a year ago.

                  I don't know, seems like a stretch.

                  [–]ExtremelyQualified 2 points3 points  (0 children)

                  I think you're probably right. He's still not sounding extremely confident about the date. It could be that their definition of launch is an extremely limited public launch in a geofenced area at the very end of 2019.

                  [–]lleoh 1 point2 points  (0 children)

                  The hero we need 😀

                  [–]omg-dude 15 points16 points  (1 child)

                  Have never been so happy to hear that a company has started to charge for something!

                  [–]Mattsasa 4 points5 points  (0 children)

                  Yea seriously

                  [–]david_ranch_dressing 5 points6 points  (3 children)

                  [–][deleted]  (2 children)

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                    [–]the133448 2 points3 points  (1 child)

                    www.outline.com Enter a URL in and it makes it just the content

                    [–]AppleTechy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

                    They have a mobile app? I like the website :)

                    [–]walky22talkyHates driving[S] 7 points8 points  (1 child)

                    Go to /r/Waymo if you want the news on Waymo for before they tell you in their quarterly earnings call. I reported they started charging in mid July

                    [–]sdcsighted 6 points7 points  (12 children)

                    I am skeptical of ARK Research’s claim of $0.35/mile by 2020 and am interested to hear thoughts from others?

                    I read their white paper, and they were pretty hand wavy and didn’t show their calculations.

                    However it seems from this that median Uber commission is 39%, which means the driver takes 61%. Uber charges roughly $2/mile, so the breakdown would be $0.78/mile going to Uber and $1.22/mile going to the driver.

                    But we know that Uber is not profitable, which means that they are losing money while making $0.78/mile. So the actual cost just to break even is $0.78+/mile.

                    Keep in mind Uber doesn’t have to pay for the cars nor any operating costs related to the cars; gas/charging, maintenance, repairs, insurance, registration, etc are all paid for by the driver AFAIK and comes out of his/her $1.22/mile.

                    Also keep in mind that Waymo or any other robotaxi company would not only have those ongoing operating costs, but the huge costs of the cars themselves, plus the full self driving stack that powers them ($150K+ total at this point). Sensors costs will come down over time, but 2020 is not very far out.

                    So to summarize, for an apples to apples comparison, let’s even say that Waymo’s cars don’t cost $150K+, and instead cost $0. Let’s say that they have to pay $0 to operate them. Let’s say that John Krafcik didn’t say that Waymo would launch at or just below Uber/Lyft pricing initially.

                    ARK Research is claiming that Waymo can be profitable charging $0.35/mile by 2020, while Uber is charging $0.78/mile and losing money today? Is the increased utilization/volume and decreased deadheading time really enough to outweigh the capital and operating costs so significantly?

                    [–]walky22talkyHates driving[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

                    I agree. Maybe in 2030 with special 1-2 seater. Or maybe they mean $0.35/mile per seat?

                    [–]brettins 1 point2 points  (4 children)

                    But we know that Uber is not profitable, which means that they are losing money while making $0.78/mile. So the actual cost just to break even is $0.78+/mile.

                    Are they not profitable because of expansion and R&D, or is actually a loss on a per ride basis? Makes a big difference.

                    [–]sdcsighted 2 points3 points  (2 children)

                    Yeah I thought about that too. Not sure it really matters in this context though because Waymo et al also have R&D costs, expansion, etc.

                    Even if we assume profitability for Uber at $0.78/mile, it seems hard to get that down to $0.35/mile for Waymo by 2020.

                    [–]brettins -1 points0 points  (1 child)

                    I think it's important in the sense that a taxi service with a driver is a always going to be a high priced convenience item, whereas a self driving taxi can aim to be the standard, so the scalability is much higher. Eg, self driving taxis should drive way more miles than current Uber taxis, so the R&D cost should be proportionally smaller.

                    If R&D costs are proportionally smaller, then the cost per mile of R&D is much less significant. That makes the 'cost per mile' metric uncertain in applicability, I think.

                    I agree that it will be hard to get it down by 2020, I expect that profitability only comes with scale. 2020 shouldn't be the time for scaling, that should be the time for growing. I wouldn't expect a profit for at least 5-10 years. Papa Alphabet can foot the bill until then.

                    [–]danweber 0 points1 point  (0 children)

                    All leaked documents show they make money on each ride, but pour it into growing into new markets.

                    [–]chandler55 0 points1 point  (2 children)

                    we know electricity is ~4c/mile, and say a 75k electric vehicle that does 250k miles becomes 30c/mile. so right away it costs 34c/mile, then theres cleaning, maintenance, r&d, and insurance. doesn't seem feasible at all.

                    google can probably make money on data but I'm not sure how much

                    [–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

                    So they need cheaper electric cars, which should happen over time anyway as the technology improves and spreads, but is possible now if they use leafs rather than I paces. They also presumably get a big bulk discount on car orders

                    [–]macoylo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

                    Unskippable targeted ads for your entire ride. Unless you buy Waymo Red. It’s what their entire business is based on.

                    [–]bfire123 0 points1 point  (2 children)

                    Waymos sensors cost 150k???

                    [–]bartturner -1 points0 points  (0 children)

                    Waymo cut the cost by 90%. So highly doubtful $150k. Plus since they make their own the incremental cost should be lower than others.

                    "Google’s Waymo invests in LIDAR technology, cuts costs by 90 percent"

                    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/01/googles-waymo-invests-in-lidar-technology-cuts-costs-by-90-percent/

                    They should be able to continue to lower the cost and the key is to get to scale.

                    Use to be digital gyro and accelerometers cost over $100. Now you can get one for two bucks including shipping that are also 6DOF and far more accurate.

                    https://www.ebay.com/itm/LSM303C-3-Axis-6DOF-Accelerometer-Magnetometer-Sensor-Module-for-Arduino-D9Y4/183242667289?epid=24008042392&hash=item2aaa1d3519:m:mqadQM6qzDS3j3eHgvA6Nsw:rk:3:pf:0

                    [–]bartturner 2 points3 points  (0 children)

                    Good. Glad to see starting to charge.

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