Monthly reverse chronological list of recent major writings/changes/additions to (see also the monthly newsletter).
2013-09-152021-06-11 in progress certainty: log importance: 1 backlinks

This page is a changelog for a monthly reverse chronological list of recent major writings/changes/additions.

Following my writing can be a little difficult because it is often so incremental. So every month, in addition to my regular subreddit submissions, I write up reasonably-interesting changes and in addition to a compilation of links & reviews (archives).


May 2021

April 2021

March 2021

  • mobile “popins” are finally enabled! (example); new Wikipedia popups (this 7th implementation enables recursive WP popups)

February 2021

  • popups: can now be moved, stickied, and full-screened (another step towards our ambition of Windows-95-in-the-browser!)

January 2021


December 2020

  • recursive link annotations (memoized for efficiency); cross-page/document popups (demo); syntax highlighting of source code popups (demo); directory indexes

November 2020

  • On Development Hell
  • dark-mode rewrite complete (fixes page load flash & laggy scrolling) arabesque navigation bar in footer with JS keyboard shortcuts; Mono font & custom -like syntax highlighting for code blocks; new ⁠/ moon icons for horizontal rulers; images in Wikipedia popups; new internal link/citation convention for multiple citations

October 2020

  • more fixes of infelicities & outdated infrastructure: major ones: line-breaking on slashes, hyphenation & justified text on Chrome desktop browsers using Edward Kmett’s at compile-time1⁠; full-width mobile images; rewrote GoodReads conversion for much more readable book review page⁠; browsable directories; popup annotations now render more like body.

    Dark mode users should have noticed it’s improved considerably; most of the other fixes either are more subtle (consistency, correct formatting, edge-cases, bold rather than italics), or rewriting old hacks to pay off technical debt. In general, it should just look nicer and more pleasant, and be a little easier for me to write.

    Minor ones:

    • I wrote up things we’ve tried & abandoned

    • rewrote GoodReads conversion for much more readable book review page⁠; began compiling all movie/TV/opera reviews into a single page⁠; began copying all MAL anime/manga reviews & localizing into a single page⁠; all GR reviews have been moved to permanently

    • dark mode:

      • popup whiteness fixed
      • image handling fixed (images are inverted & colorspace-rotated based on automated heuristic + manual tagging); tweaks like highlighting to make inline code blocks readable
      • brightness decreased to enable a pure black background without the white foreground being blinding
    • new test/demo page: revealed a number of minor bugs, makes it much easier to test changes for correctness

    • popup annotations:

      • popup annotations now render more like body: they have link icons, paragraphs, properly indented lists, multi-column support etc

      • annotations (titles/authors/abstracts) are auto-smallcaps like the body, making them more consistent and reducing the annotation toil in adding smallcaps spans

      • automatic annotations get some rewrite rules like ‘N=’ → ‘n =’

      • annotations can now be ‘definitions’ (popup annotations for non-link text)

      • popups can now be arbitrary IDs, not just sections or annotations (same as the reverse-footnote popups)

        • links pop up with a ‘context’, to support my new citation convention: every citation is either a fulltext hyperlink with annotation, or a link back to another use of that citation with more context/discussion. (This exploits the new automatic ID generation so a link like [Foo et al 2020](/docs/ai/2020-foo.pdf) gets an HTML ID like #foo-et-al-2020, making it extremely easy to link elsewhere like for more details on the scaling laws, see the earlier discussion of scaling papers like [Kaplan et al 2020](#kaplan-et-al-2020).)
      • tooltips are shorted versions of link annotations, as a fallback for non-JS or mobile users

      • bolded abstracts (manual & automatically)

      • Arxiv abstracts now parsed as LaTeX first (fixing a lot of weirdness); wrong publication dates bug fixed & reported upstream (upstream refuses to fix, so forked)

      • PLOS/PubMed/Wikipedia abstracts formatting greatly improved (and fixed upstream)

      • MedRxiv support

      • <video> tag support

      • removed broken reverse search link

      • better author truncation

      • author initials get periods (“John H Smith” → “John H. Smith”; surprisingly common in a lot of bibliographic metadata)

      • rebuilt all Wikipedia & Arxiv link annotations to bring up to date and with new formatting

        • Wikipedia annotations now include image thumbnails, which get auto-inverted like regular images for dark mode viewers
      • automatic annotations stored as YAML; more consistent, simpler implementation, and makes a lot easier to copy automatic annotations into the manual annotations for improvement

      • annotations can now be selected/copy-pasted (this was disabled previously, for unclear reasons)

      • added columns

    • refactored the site infrastructure into a separate repo

    • mobile:

      • simplified mobile appearance, reduced italics over-usage
      • full-width (edge-to-edge) mobile images (uses ~20% more horizontal space)
    • typography: rewrite pass to insert <wbr> to enable line-breaking on slashes; rewrite pass to insert soft hyphens for hyphenation & justified text on Chrome desktop browsers using Edward Kmett’s

      • fixed Safari double hyphen bug, reported upstream
    • revised list hierarchy to use bold (ie bold → smallcaps → italics; smallcaps → italic → bold or smallcaps → bold → italic made no visual-emphasis sense, and I think it resulted in smallcaps overuse); switched ordered lists to uppercase Roman numerals to avoid confusion with lowercase alphabetic numerals; added a third-level icon, and made ordered/unordered lists & blockquotes cycle through 3 styles based on depth

    • ‘previous’/‘top of page’/‘next’ navigation links added to all pages beneath the footnotes

      • exploiting that new metadata about page sequencing, a JS widget will automatically load the next/previous page if you are at the bottom/top of a page & hit a down/up key twice within 0.5s
    • simplified sidenotes appearance (removed double-lining, merged the number box with the main box)

    • auto-smallcaps: catches more acronyms/initialisms, and rewritten to avoid deeply nested duplicate spans (an unfortunate consequence of substitution + Pandoc AST walking, requiring a switch to bruteforce string substitution); headers no longer smallcaps (which looked weird)

    • metadata blocks are compiled to HTML; before, they were inlined as raw Markdown, which was unfortunate, but tricky to fix

    • index is now a generated page rather than a pile of manually-edited HTML, so it will no longer be perpetually out of sync in style/content

    • custom based on the list icons instead of horizontal ruler

    • : tooltips were wrong; Bitcoin adjuster now interpolates or extrapolates for missing exchange-rate dates instead of crashing

    • browsable directories on & TWDNE (eg /docs/)

    • changed all dates to YYYY-MM-DD for consistency

    • cut down wasted whitespace margin in lists/blockquotes (which looked especially ridiculous on mobile), and headers

    • added missing link icons for 10+ domains, fixed spacing & overlapping, and harmonized opacity of all link icons; fixed Substack background, OpenAI size

    • Pandoc now uses Mathjax directly, enabling colored equations

    • collapse sections have ellipses

    • ‘abstract’ class generalized, so pages can have multiple abstracts, simplifying formatting (the manual drop-caps+smallcaps are then redundant)

    • internal links to a previous or later link ID (usually a section) now have an arrow icon pointing up or down (respectively) as a navigation aid

    • experimental use of prefetching

    • tag pages now in columns

    • improved admonition icons (ugly or didn’t show up in dark mode, or at all on Android) & spacing

    • the <code> syntax highlighting (outlined box) looks better inside links

    • removed dead CSS & code

    • shortened page descriptions & titles

    • updated last-modified metadata on most pages

    • checked all pages for MIME types and status, revealing a number of infinite redirect errors

    • WWW archive: no crawl headers; force UTF-8 charset header for Markdown sources (for Chrome)

    • all → (static, more reliable)

    • converted simple LaTeX formulas to HTML where possible; added spaces to various equalities/inequalities

    • fixed blurriness on highlighting/selecting text

    • margin notes are now selectable/clickable (z-index error)

    • set up /r/mlscaling as a more convenient way to browse “Matters of Scale” topic links

    Known outstanding bugs:

    • no popup annotations for mobile

    • some users report popups ‘cycle’ rapidly in and out of existence; we have been unable to replicate this and don’t know why it happens

    • dark mode is slow, because browsers implement filters like inversion very slowly. Sorry.

    • dark mode is slow to load, yielding a ‘flash of white’

      Injecting CSS doesn’t work because browsers seem to ignore it until after the page loads, with the exception of setting a class, which however breaks all the existing dark mode CSS.

    • margin notes overlap with sidenotes⁠, and sidenotes may be overlap as well (desktop)

    • sidenotes are laid out even when they’re in collapsed sections

    • popup annotations may not correctly display LaTeX/math

  • compiled all movie & anime reviews

September 2020

  • dark mode image handling fixed (images are inverted based on automated heuristic + manual tagging); annotations can now be ‘definitions’ (popup annotations for non-link text); expanded tooltips as fallback for link annotations; bolded abstracts & revised list hierarchy to use bold; changed all dates to YYYY-MM-DD for consistency; added missing link icons for 7 domains, fixed spacing & overlapping, and harmonized opacity of all link icons; Pandoc now uses MathJax directly, enabling colored equations; internal links to a previous or later section now point up or down (respectively) as a navigation aid; experimental use of prefetching; instead of horizontal ruler; simplified mobile appearance; many miscellaneous bug fixes

August 2020

July 2020

June 2020

May 2020

April 2020

March 2020

February 2020

January 2020


December 2019

November 2019

September 2019

August 2019

July 2019

June 2019

May 2019

April 2019

March 2019

February 2019

  • (background & implementation)

  • “Origin of ‘Littlewood’s Law of Miracles’”

  • CSS/HTML/JS changes: click-to-zoom images (using image-focus.js); headers are now self-links; Tufte CSS-style epigraph support; Table of Contents: Wikipedia-style section numbering, margin & size tweaks, lightweight subset of (for Mac users); nicer diamond list icons; sleeker sidebar (especially nice on mobile); PDF/internal/section links are now annotated with icons; borders on tables, image figures, and blockquotes; in text & tabular numerals in tables; (but not in Chrome due to decade-old lack of hyphenation); narrowed maximum body-width in characters & made line-height responsive to body-width (hopefully addresses the perennial complaints that pages are always too wide/too narrow/lines too close); quote highlighting disabled by default; collapsible code-blocks; inline smallcaps support; optimized SVG logo & favicon; page-specific CSS overrides enabled; list paragraph bugs in Pandoc fixed; compressed JPEGs; changed code syntax-highlighting scheme to match overall esthetics better; miscellaneous responsive design/mobile improvements

    • image-focus.js (JS⁠/ CSS): release of new, correct, lightweight, dependency-free JS library written by Obormot for implementing “click to zoom” on images (useful for large images/graphs)

January 2019


December 2018

November 2018

October 2018

September 2018

June 2018

May 2018

April 2018

March 2018

  • moved newsletter from MailChimp to TinyLetter due to exorbitant MailChimp fees

February 2018

January 2018


November 2017

October 2017

September 2017

  • updates: Google AdSense banner ads removed (due to initial analysis of A/B test results); URL scheme changed to replace spaces by hyphens & delete commas/apostrophes (due to persistent user error); footer moved to sidebar; re-tagging pages; font/CSS tweaked for faster loads & wider margins; hosted documents reorganized & expanded with personal archives; began buying & scanning all cited books to provide fulltexts; added sitemap generation to expose fulltexts to search engines

July 2017

June 2017

April 2017

March 2017

  • HTTPS now mandatory; HTML sections rewritten using HTML5 semantic markup for hopefully better compatibility with screen readers & offline browsers like Pocket/ReadItLater; “importance” metadata added to all pages to rank them; “belief” metadata renamed more intuitively as “confidence”; finish adding 301 Redirects for all broken links & common typos; renamed & all darknet market pages for current terminology; rewrote Patreon profile

February 2017

January 2017


December 2016

November 2016

October 2016

September 2016

August 2016

July 2016

June 2016

May 2016

March 2016

February 2016

January 2016


December 2015

October 2015

September 2015

July 2015

June 2015

  • rewrote CSS to be mobile-friendly; should now be readable in an iPhone 6 browser
  • wrote two summer poems⁠, on earthworms and the rain

May 2015

March 2015

  • LLLT self-experiment finished: no effect (so earlier correlative results were grossly overestimated; I’m starting to expect this from anything non-randomized…)
  • an ICE subpoena on my Reddit account caused me a good deal of trouble
  • playing with inferring Bayesian networks for my Zeo & body weight data (powerful generalization of SEMs, but requires a lot of data before networks stabilize)

February 2015

  • DNM arrests: split out of Silk Road page & began bringing up-to-date with all known incidents across all markets
  • electric vs stove kettle boiling-time analysis: collected some simple data on my kettles & demonstrated some statistics tools on the dataset like a Bayesian measurement-error model

January 2015


December 2014

Nothing finished.

November 2014

October 2014


  • Redshift self-experiment: screen-reddening software shifts bedtime forward by 20 minutes
  • LLLT re-analysis: no change in sleep as hypothesized by another LLLT user
  • analysis of sceaduwe’s spirulina/allergies self-experiment (no reduction in allergies)


September 2014




  • “Effective Use of arbtt”:

    My window tracker/time-logger of choice is arbtt which records X window info for later classification and analysis; but one of the challenges is you don’t know how to set up arbtt or improve your environment or write classifications rules. So I wrote a tutorial.

  • Time-lock crypto: wrote a Bash implementation of serial hashing time-lock crypto, link to all known implementations of hash time-lock crypto

August 2014

July 2014






June 2014

May 2014

April 2014

March 2014



February 2014

January 2014

Darknet markets:

  • I have begun systematically spidering all operational English darknet markets




  • diff of “Radiance” and part I of Radiance


  • rewrote configuration for Hakyll 4
  • converted site’s Darcs repository to Git & hosted on GitHub


December 2013

Darknet markets:





November 2013

Another busy month:

  • DNB meta-analysis: corrected multiple mistakes based on Redick’s review

  • Lunar cycle effect on sleep: split out, acquired 2 other Zeo users’ data, expanded into a multi-level model & power analysis (Cajochen still has not responded)

  • Modafinil: price table update

  • Silk Road:

    • estimating DPR’s net fortune based on the FBI numbers
    • Darknet market survival analysis
    • publicly betting Sheep & BMR to shut down soon (which was vindicated even quicker than expected)
    • Mike Power email interview
    • BBC Radio 5 interview (not yet broadcast)
    • doxed the owner of Sheep Marketplace (see & /docs/sr/2013-11-03-sheepmarketplace-doxxing.maff)
  • Bitcoin:

  • Radiance: finished transcription & added all notations

  • AB testing: blockquote finished⁠, status quo performed best

  • Site:

October 2013

My focus for October was coping with the fallout from the bust of Silk Road—dealing with the revelations, copying the SR forums, tracking down leads, talking to various people, recording the ensuing arrests, tracking the darknet markets popping up in its wake… I still have much material to work through, but some things I managed to do included:

I decided to post my most extensive self-experiment yet, on LSD microdosing⁠. While there was a lot of criticism, I still regard it as worthwhile and setting a new benchmark for any future research in that area.

My anti-linkrot system benefited from comments on Hacker News telling me how to use⁠; this may help me out quite a bit in the future.

A/B testing has been active since Hacker News traffic furnished large sample sizes:

September 2013

August 2013

  • A/B testing: the line-height test found no difference, so I did a quick one where I tested an empty test to check the A/B testing tool I’m using⁠; I successfully failed to reject the null. The next test is whether underlining hyperlinks annoys people or not.

  • Book reviews: I wrote a Haskell program to parse my GoodReads ratings & reviews into flat Pandoc Markdown; it works somewhat well, it seems to be eating blockquotes & neutering hyperlinks, I’m not sure why. Was also an opportunity to clean up some reviews: inline some of them, spellcheck, expand references & links, which was a lot of work. But it’s nice to have my reviews gathered somewhere with a readable interface. kiba thinks the work may pay for itself in affiliate revenue with Amazon, but I’m skeptical.

  • Scholz’s Radiance: Added a hundred pages or so. Annotating some of it is quite difficult; Scholz’s familiarity with Wagner’s operas is a challenge, since I’ve only ever read his Ring Cycle.

  • I’ve started two new self-experiments:

  • Touhou music growth rate: made a little more progress on Touhou music, with an analysis # of releases vs time: seems like we may’ve reached peak Touhou in 2009.

  • Silk Road mirrors: I’ve started hosting public copies of subsets of the darknet markets; these are backups for particular incidents or timeseries

  • Spaced repetition statistics: I’ve been analyzing my Mnemosyne data and the giant public database for time of day effects. While my results aren’t conclusive, my analysis of 48m flashcard reviews from the public database finds that the best time to study your flashcards seem to be noon. A little surprising, you’d think that late at night, before bedtime, would be the best time.

  • My forgotten cleaning methods like Sand polls aren’t done because I got a much lower rate of responses to the polls than I was hoping for and only got enough responses in the final poll the other day.

July 2013

Interesting things I wrote during July:

  • Google Alerts: Statistical analysis of all my emails from Google Alerts to see whether/when they started to be less useful.
  • 2013 Lewis meditation quasi-experiment: A Quantified Selfer and a few other guys did some meditation while doing an arithmetic game; turned out to be a perfect application for multilevel modeling
  • Sleep and lunar phases: A recent paper claimed that there’s a phase-of-the-moon effect on circadian rhythms; since I have so much sleep data on myself, I thought I’d see if there’s any effect…
  • Sand: continues to progress; I closed the LW poll and set up 3 new polls on to test problems with the original poll.
  • Betting Made a list of things I’ve bet on or at least tried to bet on with people (as opposed to prediction market use). Disappointingly short.
  • Scholz’s Radiance: I’ve started transcribing and annotating one of my favorite tech/lit novels. It’s mostly done.
  • Cicadas for dinner: I finally got around to eating the cicadas I caught during the most recent Maryland emergence; so of course I had to write up this outré dining.

Right now, I’m listening through my Reitaisai 10 downloads (more Touhou music work); and working with this coach who is interested in predicting triple-jump performance by college athletes, and has collected a bunch of data about triple-jumpers.

June 2013

Hm, what did I get done this June…

It was a little boring, honestly; jury duty was a mental distraction where I couldn’t plan to do anything but I ultimately wound up going in once and not being picked up for the jury! So I spent a lot of time simply digging up fulltext papers for citations, so at least there’s now something like another 100 papers available online for melatonin/nicotine/modafinil etc…

  • I was thinking of trying to meta-analyze the correlation of lithium in drinking-water with suicides/murders/mental-illness, but after I got copies of all the citations I knew of⁠, I’m not sure the data is homogenous to do that, which is disappointing, and the meta-analysis papers/textbooks I’ve checked don’t seem to be very encouraging about the utility of doing it with epidemiology stuff.
  • And reorganizing & fixing broken links & updating various pages (I figured out how to make a fun forest plot showing the active/passive split in dual n-back studies)
  • My long-running font A/B test finished but with the most boring possible results of close to zero difference between the 4 fonts
  • I researched an old family friend in his 90s who has never been willing to talk about his government work during the Cold War and found some stuff using released Census records, but that’s not really of interest to other people, and I decided to not make it public. Likewise when I added ~40 book reviews from my old notes to my Goodreads account.
  • I managed to trace an arrested drug dealer back to his Silk Road account, which was somewhat interesting: Reddit discussion
  • Is one familiar with Fukuyama & ‘the end of history’? I think he’s right but no one seems to agree with me, so I wrote a short essay defending him Like most political essays, it’s probably worse than I realize.
  • From my perspective, probably the most interesting thing I wrote all month was some criticism of early SF⁠, pointing out the obsolete science behind some stuff written off as fantasy.

May 2013

  • I’ve made a little more progress on the Touhou project

  • Added 2 new studies to the DNB meta-analysis and also a new covariate (whether payment reduces gains: it doesn’t)

  • updated my analysis of SDr’s sleep data

  • oh wait, I did do a new project: applied survival analysis to modeling fiction reviews

    And in my Google analysis (which I credit to last month and not May, even if it went viral in early May), I added in random survival forests⁠, fixing that gap in evaluating prediction methods, which was a little burden of guilt off my mind.

    While I was at it, I reproduced that recent paper analyzing Bitcoin exchange shutdown or theft risk. The dude’s since given me his source code. (What can I say? Survival analysis is a great hammer, and it cost me enough tears and sweat to learn how to use the R library that I plan to use it everywhere I can.)

  • I started a little Noopept self-experiment using the Noopept someone gave me, but unfortunately they gave me too little for the results to be very meaningful (see the power analysis); but maybe they will have a trend and I can try a bigger experiment later.

  • TruBrain sent me a month’s supply of their all-in-one nootropic, but I haven’t tried it yet because it would interfere with the Noopept. I also purchased magnesium l-threonate, which is a disappointment so far, and some nicotine patches, which I haven’t used yet. A small sample order from a new modafinil website selling the usual Indian Modalert is in progress but hasn’t arrived yet. (It ultimately did not arrive as the delivery required a signature.)

  • I have a weird little literature/historical/survey article in progress; we’ll see where that goes

  • I posted an analysis I wrote a few months ago in private of whether a particular vendor on Silk Road is a federal mole (probably not)

Actually, I guess it was overall a pretty productive month. Probably helped that jury duty has so far turned out to be a bust: I’ve been on call since 21 May but have yet to actually go into the courthouse to do anything.



“But where shall wisdom be found?
And where is the place of understanding?
Man knoweth not the price thereof;
neither is it found in the land of the living
…for the price of wisdom is above rubies.”

28:12 ()

Here is material I’ve worked on in the 477 days since my last update. In roughly chronological & topical order, here are the major additions to

Transcribed or translated:

More technical:




“I’d like to poison your mind
With wrong ideas that appeal to you
Though I am not unkind…”

“Whistling in the Dark”⁠, ⁠,

Per my past practice of linking stuff I think LWers will find interesting, here is what I’ve been up to lately:

  1. “Politicians are Ethical”: applying base-rate neglect
  2. Modafinil: a dual-pronged argument for low-balling estimates of modafinil harm by pointing to both temporal and quality discounting of health in old age. (If you missed it the first time around, I still think my mini-tutorial on drug ordering with Bayes’s theorem is worth reading.)
  3. “The Narrowing Circle”: argument that the usual belief of ‘moral progress’ and the ‘expanding circle’ assume many of their conclusions by pointing to the beliefs and classes of entities discarded along the way. (As many LWers share those assumptions and will be unsympathetic, the interesting parts may be the appendices on perpetuities and waqfs, inasmuch as those bear directly on cryonics.)
  4. Both Modafinil and Spaced repetition have been expanded with scores more links to studies & PDFs. (Nicotine and Melatonin are next.)
  5. “Worldbuilding: The Lights in the Sky are Sacs” is a silly bit of SF/alternate history speculation involving floating hydrogen-sac organisms.
  6. “Wikipedia and Knol” has been completed, as the 7 predictions I made on the matter have been judged thanks to Google’s recent announcements; I blew one⁠.
  7. Stuff which is incomplete or which is just a pile of notes:
  8. I stuck a link in the footer of every page to a Google spreadsheet form, borrowing the idea from Luke Muehlhauser - I’ve only gotten 1 feedback so far, IIRC, but that was before I put it in the footer and updated all the pages a few hours ago. (As of 2015, there are hundreds of responses and I consider the feedback form to have paid its way; see my later writeup detailing the benefits.)

  1. Since removed in April 2021 when Chrome desktop support for hyphenation became sufficiently widespread.↩︎