--- title: June 2019 News description: "June 2019 Gwern.net newsletter with 5 new essays; links on deep learning, history, technological/cultural evolution, & Scott Alexander; and 2 books & 1 movie review" created: 2019-05-31 status: finished previous: /newsletter/2019/05 next: /newsletter/2019/07 confidence: log cssExtension: dropcaps-de-zs backlink: False ... June 2019's [Gwern.net](/newsletter/2019/06 "'June 2019 News', Branwen 2019") [newsletter](https://gwern.substack.com/ "'Gwern.net newsletter (Substack subscription page)', Branwen 2013") is now out; previous, [May 2019](/newsletter/2019/05 "'May 2019 News', Branwen 2019")/[2018 summary newsletter](/newsletter/2018/13 "'2018 News', Branwen 2018") ([archives](/doc/newsletter/index)). This is a collation of links and summary of major changes, overlapping with my [Changelog](/changelog); brought to you by my donors on [Patreon](https://www.patreon.com/gwern). # Writings - ["Dog Cloning For Special Forces: Breed All You Can Breed"](/clone "Decision analysis of whether cloning the most elite Special Forces dogs is a profitable improvement over standard selection procedures. Unless training is extremely cheap or heritability is extremely low, dog cloning is hypothetically profitable.")/[NBA recruiting using height polygenic scores](/clone#nba-screening-scenario "Analysis of selection of extreme height polygenic scores: nontrivial numbers of tall people can be found by genomic screening with a current PGS, and as PGSes approach their predictive upper bound (derived from whole-genome-based heritability estimates of height), selection is capable of selecting almost all tall people by taking the top PGS percentile.") - ["On Seeing Through 'On Seeing Through: A Unified Theory': A Unified Theory"](/unseeing "Defining the security/hacker mindset as extreme reductionism.") - [On Having Enough Socks](/socks "Personal experience and surveys on running out of socks; discussion of socks as small example of human procrastination and irrationality, caused by lack of explicit deliberative thought where no natural triggers or habits exist.") - [BigGAN for anime faces: 256px results](/biggan#biggan-256px-danbooru2018-1k "I experiment with 128px ImageNet transfer learning (successful) with ~6 GPU-days, and from-scratch 256px anime portraits of 1000 characters on a 8×2080ti machine for a month (mixed results). My BigGAN results are good but compromised by practical problems with the released BigGAN code base.") (not quite yet) # Media ## Links **Genetics**: - [Everything Is Heritable]{.smallcaps}: - ["Breed differences of heritable behaviour traits in cats"](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44324-x "‘Breed differences of heritable behavior traits in cats’, Salonen et al 2019"), Salonen et al 2019 - ["Diet for One? Scientists Stalk the Dream of Personalized Nutrition"](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/10/health/nutrition-diet-genetics-food.html "No single food regimen works for everyone. A new study is the most comprehensive effort yet to understand why") (in depth longitudinal phenotyping of twins to understand diet response) - [Recent Evolution]{.smallcaps}: - ["Evolutionary Perspectives on Genetic and Environmental Risk Factors for Psychiatric Disorders"](/doc/psychiatry/schizophrenia/2018-keller.pdf), Keller 2018 - ["The reach of gene-culture coevolution in animals"](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-10293-y), Whitehead et al 2019 - [Engineering]{.smallcaps}: - ["Breeding crops to feed 10 billion"](/doc/genetics/selection/artificial/2019-hickey.pdf), Hickey et al 2019 (review of 'speed breeding' plant breeding state-of-the-art) - ["Principles of and strategies for germline gene therapy"](/doc/genetics/editing/2019-wolf.pdf), Wolf et al 2019 - ["Russian biologist plans more CRISPR-edited babies"](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01770-x "'Russian biologist plans more CRISPR-edited babies: The proposal follows a Chinese scientist who claimed to have created twins from edited embryos last year', Cyranoski 2019") ([Kodyleva et al 2019](https://vestnik.rsmu.press/archive/2018/4/10/content "The efficacy of CRISPR-Cas9-mediated induction of the CCR5delta32 mutation in the human embryo")) - ["Transgenic Metarhizium rapidly kills mosquitoes in a malaria-endemic region of Burkina Faso"](/doc/genetics/editing/2019-lovett.pdf), Lovett et al 2019 ([media](https://www.bbc.com/news/health-48464510 "GM fungus rapidly kills 99% of malaria mosquitoes, study suggests"); [on the "Mosquito Dome"](https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/venomous-fungus-mosquito-dome "Inside Burkina Faso's Mosquito Dome, Where Venomous Fungus Is Put to the Test: An innovative research center dedicated to blood, biting, and beating back malaria")) **AI**: - ["XLNet: Generalized Autoregressive Pretraining for Language Understanding"](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.08237), Yang et al 2019 (NLP pretraining method that improves on BERT on 20 tasks: SQuAD/GLUE/RACE) - ["ICML 2019 Notes"](https://david-abel.github.io/notes/icml_2019.pdf), David Abel - [On "Meta Reinforcement Learning"](https://lilianweng.github.io/lil-log/2019/06/23/meta-reinforcement-learning.html#openai "'Meta Reinforcement Learning', Weng 2019"), Lilian Weng - ["Fast Task Inference with Variational Intrinsic Successor Features"](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.05030 "‘VISR: Fast Task Inference with Variational Intrinsic Successor Features’, Hansen et al 2019"), Hansen et al 2019 - ["Search on the Replay Buffer: Bridging Planning and Reinforcement Learning"](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.05253), Eysenbach et al 2019 - ["Finding Friend and Foe in Multi-Agent Games"](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.02330), Serrino et al 2019 (deep CFR for near-human level [_Avalon_](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Resistance_\(game\)#Avalon_variant) team play) - ["Cats, Rats, A.I., Oh My!"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1A-Nf3QIJjM), Ben Hamm (cat+rat NN detector powering an Arduino for locking out cats bearing gifts) - ["Waifu Synthesis: real time generative anime"](https://web.archive.org/web/20220803180645/https://everyoneishappy.com/portfolio/waifu-synthesis-real-time-generative-anime/), Kyle McLean (video: StyleGAN faces + GPT-2 lyrics + Project Magenta music + VST voice synthesis) - ["Does AI have a dirty mind, too?"](https://medium.com/@marekkcichy/does-ai-have-a-dirty-mind-too-6948430e4b2b) (technically SFW) **Statistics/Meta-Science**: - ["Meta-Research: A comprehensive review of randomized clinical trials in three medical journals reveals 396 \[13%\] medical reversals"](https://elifesciences.org/articles/45183 "'Meta-Research: A comprehensive review of randomized clinical trials in three medical journals reveals 396 medical reversals', Herrera-Perez et al 2019"), Herrera-Perez et al 2019 - ["Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project"](https://aiimpacts.org/evidence-on-good-forecasting-practices-from-the-good-judgment-project-an-accompanying-blog-post/) - ["Seeing The Forest From The Trees: When Predicting the Behavior or Status of Groups, Correlate Means"](/doc/statistics/order/1996-lubinski-2.pdf), Lubinski & Humphreys 1996 - ["An Empirical Approach to Economic Intelligence in World War II"](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/4211/401e77d5ddeef42f40f9854536b093c61f6f.pdf), Ruggles & Brodie 1947 **Politics/religion**: - [Book Review: _The Secret Of Our Success_](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/04/book-review-the-secret-of-our-success/ "'Book Review: The Secret Of Our Success, Joseph Henrich', Alexander 2019") (on cultural natural selection: [excerpts](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/05/list-of-passages-i-highlighted-in-my-copy-of-the-secret-of-our-success/); [comments](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/11/highlights-from-the-comments-on-cultural-evolution/)) - ["Predicting History"](/doc/history/2019-risi.pdf), Risi et al 2019 - ["The Empty Chamber"](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/08/09/the-empty-chamber "'The Empty Chamber: Just how broken is the Senate?', Packer 2010") (on US Senate dysfunctionality) - ["Money and School Performance: Lessons from the Kansas City Desegregation Experiment"](https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa-298.pdf), Ciotti 1998 - ["The Falling Man"](https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a48031/the-falling-man-tom-junod/), Junod 2003 - [Ceaușescu's Final Speech](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_Revolution#Ceau%C8%99escu's_speech) (preference falsification & signaling cascades) **Psychology/biology**: - everything is correlated: ["Can Psychological Traits Be Inferred From Spending? Evidence From Transaction Data"](/doc/psychology/personality/2019-gladstone.pdf), Gladstone et al 2019 ([specific items/personality trait correlations](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/suppl/10.1177/0956797619849435/suppl_file/Gladstone_Supplemental_Material_rev.pdf#page=12 "Table S3: The five spending categories most positively and negatively correlated with each of the psychological traits")); ["Behavioral Patterns in Smartphone Usage Predict Big Five Personality Traits"](https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/ks4vd/), Stachl et al 2019 - ["Stereotype Threat Effects in Settings With Features Likely Versus Unlikely in Operational Test Settings: A Meta-Analysis"](/doc/psychology/cognitive-bias/stereotype-threat/2019-shewach.pdf "'Stereotype threat effects in settings with features likely versus unlikely in operational test settings: A meta-analysis', Shewach et al 2019"), Shewach et al 2019 (still heavy publication bias; still doesn't exist in the real world) - ["Acute subjective and behavioral effects of microdoses of LSD in healthy human volunteers"](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6814527/ "'Acute Subjective and Behavioral Effects of Microdoses of Lysergic Acid Diethylamide in Healthy Human Volunteers', Bershad et al 2019"), Bershad et al 2019 (nulls; still no notable effects of [LSD microdosing](/lsd-microdosing "'LSD microdosing RCT', Branwen 2012")) - ["The Human Antivenom Project: Since 2000, Tim Friede has endured 200 snakebites & 700 injections of lethal snake venom---a masochistic quest to immunize his body & offer his blood to scientists seeking universal antivenom"](https://www.outsideonline.com/outdoor-adventure/exploration-survival/snakebite-antivenom-tim-friede/); cf. [_Cobras in His Garden_, Kursh 1965](/doc/biology/1965-kursh-cobrasinhisgarden.pdf "‘Cobras in His Garden’, Kursh 1965") on [Bill Haast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Haast) - ["Snake Venom Use as a Substitute for Opioids: A Case Report and Review of Literature"](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5968650/), Mehra et al 2018 - ["Ghosts of the Tsunami"](https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v36/n03/richard-lloyd-parry/ghosts-of-the-tsunami) - ["A Natural Mother: The Story Of An Intellectually Disabled Woman Who Had Long Wanted A Child But Decided To Adopt A Doll Instead"](https://www.thebeliever.net/a-natural-mother/) - ["An Exceptional Talent for Calculative Thinking"](/doc/psychology/1962-hunter.pdf "'An Exceptional Talent For Calculative Thinking', Hunter 1962"), Hunter 1962 **Technology**: - ["The changing structure of American innovation: Some cautionary remarks for economic growth"](/doc/economics/2020-arora.pdf "'The Changing Structure of American Innovation: Some Cautionary Remarks for Economic Growth', Arora et al 2020"), Arora et al 2020 (industrial labs may have higher R&D productivity than government-funded research, at least end-to-end) - ["Convergence"](/doc/sociology/technology/2010-kelly-whattechwants-ch7-convergence.pdf "'What Technology Wants: Chapter 7, Convergence', Kelly 2010"), Kelly 2010 ([multiple discovery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_discovery)) - ["Chain Letter Evolution"](https://carryiton.net/chain-letter/evolution.html) - ["_Final Fantasy 7_: An oral history"](https://www.polygon.com/a/final-fantasy-7) - ["Safecracking for the computer scientist"](https://www.mattblaze.org/papers/safelocks.pdf), Blaze 2004 - [Wade Davis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wade_Davis_\(anthropologist\)): ["From Haitian Zombie Poison to Inuit Knives Made of Feces"](https://web.archive.org/web/20080403020227/http://discovermagazine.com/2008/apr/27-from-haitian-zombie-poison-to-inuit-knives); ["The Key to Arctic Survival: Improvised Implements of Excrement"](https://chinamatters.blogspot.com/2014/01/the-key-to-arctic-survival-improvised.html) **Economics**: - ["Labour repression---the Indo-Japanese divergence"](https://pseudoerasmus.com/2017/10/02/ijd/ "'Labour repression & the Indo-Japanese divergence', Pseudoerasmus 2017"), Pseudoerasmus (Indian inefficiency in textile production & long run poverty vs Japan) - ["Obesity and economic environments"](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.3322/caac.21237), Sturm & An 2014 - ["The Fingerprints in the Paint: The man who keeps finding famous fingerprints on uncelebrated works of art"](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/07/12/the-mark-of-a-masterpiece) (profile of a forger/con artist) **Fiction**: - ["A Solar Labyrinth"](/doc/fiction/gene-wolfe/1983-wolfe-asolarlabyrinth.txt), Wolfe 1983 -
[Best Of Scott Alexander's `Raikoth.net`]{.smallcaps}: - ["The Last Temptation of Christ"](/doc/fiction/2012-yvain-thelasttemptationofchrist.html) - ["Atreus, Atreus, and Pelides: Attorneys At Law"](/doc/fiction/poetry/2011-yvain-iliadaslawsuit.html) - ["The Story of Emily and Control"](/doc/fiction/2011-yvain-thestoryofemilyandcontrol.html) - ["A Modest Proposal"](/doc/philosophy/ethics/2011-yvain-deadchild.html) - ["Blessed Are The Taxonomers, For Theirs Is The Phylum Of God"](/doc/fiction/2011-yvain-taxonomers.html) - [Fermi paradox short story](/doc/fiction/2011-yvain-fermiparadox.html) - ["The Ballad of John Darcy"](/doc/fiction/poetry/2011-yvain-theballadofjohndarcy.html)
## Books **Nonfiction**: - [_On Machine Intelligence (Second Edition)_](/doc/ai/1986-michie-onmachineintelligence.pdf), Michie 1986 (considerably less interesting than _Donald Michie: On Machine Intelligence, Biology and More_, and almost entirely obsolete; I continue to be mystified at how little interest Michie took in connectionism.) **Fiction**: - [_Waiting for the Wind: Thirty-Six Poets of Japan’s Late Medieval Age_](/doc/japan/poetry/shotetsu/1989-carter-waitingforthewind.pdf), Carter 1989 (a wide selection of lesser-known waka poets in Carter's usual highly-readable translation, exploring the descendants of [Fujiwara no Teika](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwara_no_Teika) in their centuries-long battle) ## Film/TV **Live-action**: - [_Hero_](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hero_\(2002_film\)) (2002; [review](/review/movie#hero))