N/A
2014-12-18–2021-01-04
finished
certainty: log
importance: 0
This is the January 2015 edition of the Gwern.net newsletter; previous, December 2014.
This is a summary of the revision-history RSS feed, overlapping with Changelog & including material from /
Writings
- “Silk Goxed: How DPR used MtGox for hedging & lost big”
- A/
B tests: no positive results from sidebar test; set up in-page metadata format
Media
Links
Genetics:
Everything Is Heritable:
Recent Evolution:
- “Rabbit genome analysis reveals a polygenic basis for phenotypic change during domestication”, Carneiro et al 2014 (the power of selection—complex behaviors influenced by many small changes)
Politics/
- “Reactionary Philosophy In An Enormous, Planet-Sized Nutshell”
- “The Credibility Paradox: Violence as a Double-Edged Sword in International Politics”, Abrahms 2013 (Why does terrorism so rarely succeed in policy goals compared to guerrilla warfare, and trigger backfire effects? Because use of terrorist tactics triggers the horns effect; given the same hypothetical, they are perceived as fundamentally hateful, unable to keep negotiated commitments, & intrinsically preferring violence.)
- “Blonde cargoes: Finnish children in the slave markets of medieval Crimea”
- “New poll finds majority of Americans believe torture justified after 9/
11 attacks” - “Jihadi Radicalization of Muslim Clerics”, Nielsen 2012
Statistics/
- “Framing For Light Instead Of Heat” (What do we mean by ‘controlling’ in statistics and is it what we think it means?)
- “Site Selection Bias in Program Evaluation”, Allcott 2014 (on one reason programs ‘fade out’; of particular concern in effective altruism)
- “Probable Points and Credible Intervals, Part 2: Decision Theory” (Bayesian search theory/
optimization) - “Bayes’ rule in Haskell, or why drug tests don’t work”
- “Kalkalash! Pinpointing the Moments The Simpsons became less Cromulent”
Psychology/
- “Artificial Selection on Relative Brain Size in the Guppy Reveals Costs and Benefits of Evolving a Larger Brain”, Kotrschal et al 2013 (fascinating little experiment—it’s odd the males showed no intelligence gain, and selecting on volume isn’t exactly what you want to select on, but I’d love to see what a larger experiment ran for more generations showed.)
- “Clinical outcome of preimplantation genetic diagnosis and screening using next generation sequencing”, Tan et al 2014
- Alexander Shulgin obituary
- “Wireheading: Towards a Consumer Market?”
- “Secrets of the Magus: Ricky Jay does closeup magic that flouts reality”
Technology:
- “Bitcoin and Me”, Hal Finney
- “Programming Sucks”
- “The explosion of No. 5 Blast Furnace, Corus UK Ltd, Port Talbot”, 2001
- “The Darkhotel APT: A Story of Unusual Hospitality” (cyberwarfare)
- “Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress”, Nagy et al 2013
- “Found on the Web, With DNA: a Boy’s Father”
- “Tokyo Polytechnic University Publishes Results of VOCALOID Study”
- A Linux audio tweak to compensate for hearing loss
Economics:
- “A colourful history of progress” (the Industrial Revolution, synthetic dyes, and the environment)
- “Forget It!”, Isaac Asimov (on the benefits of standardization, illustrated by an old practical mathematics textbook.)
- “Study of Men’s Falling Income Cites Single Parents” (2013)o
- “Redistributing from Capitalists to Workers: The Chamley-Judd Impossibility Theorem”
- “Net benefits: How to quantify the gains that the internet has brought to consumers”
- “Beware of the survivorship bias: Investors may have developed too rosy a view of equity returns”
Philosophy:
Books
Nonfiction:
- Empire of the Summer Moon: Quanah Parker and the Rise and Fall of the Comanches, the Most Powerful Indian Tribe in American History (see Yvain)
- Spam Nation (review)
Fiction:
Film/TV
Anime:
Music
Misc:
- “COME SWEET DEATH,SECOND IMPACT” (Shiro Sagisu feat. Megumi Hayashibara; The world EVAngelion JAZZ night =The Tokyo III Jazz club= {2014}) [jazz]
Touhou:
- “Extend Ash ~ Hourai Victim” (Studio A’; BorderLine {C68}) [instrumental rock]
- “Shanghai Alice of Meiji 17” (樋口秀樹; BorderLine {C68}) [instrumental]
Doujin:
- “きつねうどん (Kitsune Udon)” (marasy; Kitsune no Nikkichou {C84}) [classical]
- “狐の日記帖” (marasy; Kitsune no Nikkichou {C84}) [classical]
Kantai Collection:
- “Happy Wedding” (BubbleRecords; SUMMER AIRCRAFT {C86}) [classical/
electronic] - “Goodbye Admiral” (BubbleRecords; SUMMER AIRCRAFT {C86}) [trance]
Vocaloid:
- “Sadness” (Miku? hitsuji; にこにこ {2009}) [progressive rock]
- “アマツキツネ (Amatsu Kitsune)” (marasy; Kitsune no Nikkichou {C84}) [classical]
- “天照ラセ (Amaterase)” (marasy; Kitsune no Nikkichou {C84}) [classical]
- “Helianthus” (Gumi; PlantyP; Silent Paradiso -EXTEND- {2013}) [trance]
- “Clarity (Planty Arrange)” (IA; PlantyP; Silent Paradiso -EXTEND- {2013}) [vocal]
Link Bibliography
Bibliography of page links in reading order (with annotations when available):
“December 2014 News”, (2014-11-30):
N/A
“Changelog”, (2013-09-15):
This page is a changelog for Gwern.net: a monthly reverse chronological list of recent major writings/
changes/ additions. Following my writing can be a little difficult because it is often so incremental. So every month, in addition to my regular /
r/ subreddit submissions, I write up reasonably-interesting changes and send it out to the mailing list in addition to a compilation of links & reviews (archives).Gwern “/r/gwern subreddit”, (2018-10-01):
A subreddit for posting links of interest and also for announcing updates to gwern.net (which can be used as a RSS feed). Submissions are categorized similar to the monthly newsletter and typically will be collated there.
http:/
/ digitalcommons.unl.edu/ cgi/ viewcontent.cgi?article=1006&context=poliscifacpub#pdf https:/
/ slatestarcodex.com/ 2013/ 03/ 03/ reactionary-philosophy-in-an-enormous-planet-sized-nutshell/ http:/
/ citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/ viewdoc/ download?doi=10.1.1.661.618&rep=rep1&type=pdf https:/
/ pdfs.semanticscholar.org/ 091b/ c167f38254f8c942af1b6864ba79823b43cf.pdf https:/
/ slatestarcodex.com/ 2014/ 12/ 03/ framing-for-light-instead-of-heat/ https:/
/ wp.nyu.edu/ dri/ wp-content/ uploads/ sites/ 2459/ 2015/ 08/ Allcott_SiteSelectionBias-14.pdf http:/
/ www.sumsar.net/ blog/ 2015/ 01/ probable-points-and-credible-intervals-part-two/ http:/
/ www.randomhacks.net/ 2007/ 02/ 22/ bayes-rule-and-drug-tests/ http:/
/ citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/ viewdoc/ download?doi=10.1.1.659.8433&rep=rep1&type=pdf “Clinical outcome of preimplantation genetic diagnosis and screening using next generation sequencing”, (2014-12-04):
Background: Next generation sequencing (NGS) is now being used for detecting chromosomal abnormalities in blastocyst trophectoderm (TE) cells from in vitro fertilized embryos. However, few data are available regarding the clinical outcome, which provides vital reference for further application of the methodology. Here, we present a clinical evaluation of NGS-based preimplantation genetic diagnosis/screening (PGD/PGS) compared with single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array-based PGD/PGS as a control.
Results: A total of 395 couples participated. They were carriers of either translocation or inversion mutations, or were patients with recurrent miscarriage and/or advanced maternal age. A total of 1,512 blastocysts were biopsied on D5 after fertilization, with 1,058 blastocysts set aside for SNP array testing and 454 blastocysts for NGS testing. In the NGS cycles group, the implantation, clinical pregnancy and miscarriage rates were 52.6% (60⁄114), 61.3% (49⁄80) and 14.3% (7⁄49), respectively. In the SNP array cycles group, the implantation, clinical pregnancy and miscarriage rates were 47.6% (139⁄292), 56.7% (115⁄203) and 14.8% (17⁄115), respectively. The outcome measures of both the NGS and SNP array cycles were the same with insignificant differences. There were 150 blastocysts that underwent both NGS and SNP array analysis, of which seven blastocysts were found with inconsistent signals. All other signals obtained from NGS analysis were confirmed to be accurate by validation with qPCR. The relative copy number of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) for each blastocyst that underwent NGS testing was evaluated, and a significant difference was found between the copy number of mtDNA for the euploid and the chromosomally abnormal blastocysts. So far, out of 42 ongoing pregnancies, 24 babies were born in NGS cycles; all of these babies are healthy and free of any developmental problems.
Conclusions: This study provides the first evaluation of the clinical outcomes of NGS-based pre-implantation genetic diagnosis/screening, and shows the reliability of this method in a clinical and array-based laboratory setting. NGS provides an accurate approach to detect embryonic imbalanced segmental rearrangements, to avoid the potential risks of false signals from SNP array in this study. [Keywords: preimplantation genetic diagnosis/screening, next generation sequencing, blastocyst, cryopreserved embryo transfer, clinical outcome]
http:/
/ www.newyorker.com/ magazine/ 1993/ 04/ 05/ secrets-of-the-magus https:/
/ bitcointalk.org/ index.php?topic=155054.msg1643833#msg1643833 https:/
/ securelist.com/ blog/ research/ 66779/ the-darkhotel-apt/ “Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress”, (2012-11-19):
Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early hypothesis made by Theodore Wright in 1936 is that cost decreases as a power law of cumulative production. An alternative hypothesis is Moore’s law, which can be generalized to say that technologies improve exponentially with time. Other alternatives were proposed by Goddard, Sinclair et al., and Nordhaus. These hypotheses have not previously been rigorously tested. Using a new database on the cost and production of 62 different technologies, which is the most expansive of its kind, we test the ability of six different postulated laws to predict future costs. Our approach involves hindcasting and developing a statistical model to rank the performance of the postulated laws. Wright’s law produces the best forecasts, but Moore’s law is not far behind. We discover a previously unobserved regularity that production tends to increase exponentially. A combination of an exponential decrease in cost and an exponential increase in production would make Moore’s law and Wright’s law indistinguishable, as originally pointed out by Sahal. We show for the first time that these regularities are observed in data to such a degree that the performance of these two laws is nearly the same. Our results show that technological progress is forecastable, with the square root of the logarithmic error growing linearly with the forecasting horizon at a typical rate of 2.5% per year. These results have implications for theories of technological change, and assessments of candidate technologies and policies for climate change mitigation.
http:/
/ www.washingtonpost.com/ wp-dyn/ content/ article/ 2005/ 11/ 12/ AR2005111200958_pf.html /
docs/ technology/ 2014-12-14-gwern-linuxadjustmenthearingloss.html http:/
/ www.spiked-online.com/ newsite/ article/ a-colourful-history-of-progress/ 16212 https:/
/ web.archive.org/ web/ 20150422010811/ http:/ / www.kkbooks.net/ ScienceFiction/ Asimov37/ 27283.html http:/
/ econlog.econlib.org/ archives/ 2013/ 03/ redistributing.html https:/
/ slatestarcodex.com/ 2015/ 01/ 25/ a-philosopher-walks-into-a-coffee-shop/ http:/
/ www.amazon.com/ Empire-Summer-Moon-Comanches-Powerful/ dp/ 1416591060 /
docs/ history/ 2012-11-13-yvain-bookreviewempireofthesummermoon.html http:/
/ www.amazon.com/ Spam-Nation-Organized-Cybercrime-Epidemic/ dp/ 1501210424 “The Fractal Prince”, (2020-12-28):
The Fractal Prince is the second science fiction novel by Hannu Rajaniemi and the second novel to feature the post-human gentleman thief Jean le Flambeur. It was published in Britain by Gollancz in September 2012, and by Tor in the same year in the US. The novel is the second in the trilogy, following The Quantum Thief (2010) and preceding The Causal Angel (2014).
“The Causal Angel”, (2020-12-28):
The Causal Angel is the third science fiction novel by Hannu Rajaniemi featuring the protagonist Jean le Flambeur. It was published in July 2014 by Gollancz in the UK and by Tor in the US. The novel is the finale of a trilogy. The previous novels in the series are The Quantum Thief (2010) and The Fractal Prince (2012).
http:/
/ www.amazon.com/ The-Corpse-Exhibition-Other-Stories/ dp/ 0143123262 /
Book-reviews#the-corpse-exhibition-and-other-stories-of-iraq-blasim-2014 “Hozuki's Coolheadedness”, (2020-12-28):
Hozuki's Coolheadedness is a Japanese manga series written and illustrated by Natsumi Eguchi. The plot revolves around Hozuki, a demon who works for the King and Head Judge of Hell. It was serialized by Kodansha in the magazine Weekly Morning between March 2011 and January 2020, with chapters collected in thirty tankōbon volumes. The manga was adapted into a television anime series; Wit Studio produced the first season in 2014, and Studio Deen was responsible for a second season in 2017–2018. The former studio also produced three original animation DVDs (OADs) in 2015, while the latter produced one OAD in 2017, and Pine Jam produced three more OVAs in 2019 and 2020.
“Futakoi Alternative”, (2020-12-28):
Futakoi Alternative is a Japanese anime television series created by character designer Mutsumi Sasaki and planner & scenario writer Hina Futaba. The series was produced by MediaWorks, King Records, Lantis and Yomiko Advertising and animated by Feel, Studio Flag and Ufotable. It ran for 13 episodes from 7 April 2005 to 30 June 2005. The show features many of the characters from the original Futakoi, though the story and settings are completely different. A manga adaptation of the show is illustrated by Kanao Araki.
https:/
/ www.dropbox.com/ s/ 3px3we8tex8ikhr/ plantyp-silentparadisoextend-helianthus.ogg https:/
/ www.dropbox.com/ s/ g6rj0wc3cq6yvr4/ plantyp-silentparadisoextend-clarityplantyarrange.ogg “Gwern.net newsletter (Substack subscription page)”, (2013-12-01):
Subscription page for the monthly gwern.net newsletter. There are monthly updates, which will include summaries of projects I’ve worked on that month (the same as the changelog), collations of links or discussions from my subreddit, and book/movie reviews. You can also browse the archives since December 2013.
“Gwern.net newsletter archives”, (2013-12-01):
Newsletter tag: archive of all issues back to 2013 for the gwern.net newsletter (monthly updates, which will include summaries of projects I’ve worked on that month (the same as the changelog), collations of links or discussions from my subreddit, and book/movie reviews.)