Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Historical and Projected Nuclear Power
Abstract
In the aftermath of the March 2011 accident at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the future contribution of nuclear power to the global energy supply has become somewhat uncertain. Because nuclear power is an abundant, low-carbon source of base-load power, it could make a large contribution to mitigation of global climate change and air pollution. Using historical production data, we calculate that global nuclear power has prevented an average of 1.84 million air pollution-related deaths and 64 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2-eq) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that would have resulted from fossil fuel burning. On the basis of global projection data that take into account the effects of the Fukushima accident, we find that nuclear power could additionally prevent an average of 420 000–7.04 million deaths and 80–240 GtCO2-eq emissions due to fossil fuels by midcentury, depending on which fuel it replaces. By contrast, we assess that large-scale expansion of unconstrained natural gas use would not mitigate the climate problem and would cause far more deaths than expansion of nuclear power.
Introduction
electricity source | mean value (range) | unitb | source |
---|---|---|---|
coal | 28.67 (7.15–114) | deaths/TWh | ref 16 |
77 (19.25–308) | deaths/TWh | ref 16 (China)c | |
1045 (909–1182) | tCO2-eq/GWh | ref 30 | |
natural gas | 2.821 (0.7–11.2) | deaths/TWh | ref 16 |
602 (386–818) | tCO2-eq/GWh | ref 30 | |
nuclear | 0.074 (range not given) | deaths/TWh | ref 16 |
65 (10–130)d | tCO2-eq/GWh | ref 34 |
Mortality factors are based on analysis for Europe (except as indicated) and represent the sum of accidental deaths and air pollution-related effects in Table 2 of ref 16. They reflect impacts from all stages of the fuel cycle, including fuel extraction, transport, transformation, waste disposal, and electricity transport. Their ranges are 95% confidence intervals and represent deviation from the mean by a factor of ∼4. Mortality factor for coal is the mean of the factors for lignite and coal in ref 16. Mean values for emission factors are the midpoints of the ranges given in the sources. Water pollution is also a significant impact but is not factored into these values. Additional uncertainties and limitations inherent in these factors are discussed in the text.
TWh = terawatt hour; GWh = gigawatt hour; tCO2-eq = tonnes of CO2-equivalent emissions.
Range is not given in source for China, but for consistency with other factors, it is assumed to be 4 times lower and higher than the mean.
Some authors contend the upper limit is significantly higher, but their conclusions are based on dubious assumptions.(35)
Methods
Calculation of Prevented Mortality and GHG Impacts
Methodological Limitations
Results and Discussion
Mortality
GHG Emissions
Uncertainties
Implications
Comparison with avoided GHG emissions in projection periods of prior studies; figures showing upper and lower bounds for prevented deaths and GHG emissions assuming nuclear power replaces fossil fuels from 1971–2009, projections of nuclear power production by region, and total electricity production from 1971–2009 by fuel source for the top five CO2-emitting countries and OECD Europe. This material is available free of charge via the Internet at http://pubs.acs.org.
Terms & Conditions
Most electronic Supporting Information files are available without a subscription to ACS Web Editions. Such files may be downloaded by article for research use (if there is a public use license linked to the relevant article, that license may permit other uses). Permission may be obtained from ACS for other uses through requests via the RightsLink permission system: http://pubs.acs.org/page/copyright/permissions.html.
Acknowledgment
We thank Chuck Kutscher of the U.S. DOE National Renewable Energy Laboratory for helpful comments on our methodology and three anonymous reviewers for helpful feedback on our manuscript. Funding for this work was provided by the Lenfest Foundation and the Columbia University–NASA Cooperative Agreement (award NNX11AR63A).
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