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all 14 comments

[–]sightl3ssSmoke meth, hail Satan 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Cool.

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (1 child)

point spread?

[–]gwern[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

No. Trying to keep things relatively simple. The bets are as listed, take'em or leave'em.

[–]reddingsanon 0 points1 point  (2 children)

At a time of heavy-handed paranoia, do we really need something like this?

Granted, this seems kinda fun in a way, but right now I would not start another scare.

[–]gwern[S] 5 points6 points  (1 child)

Yes. Because people are not paranoid enough. They aren't even using PGP regularly, if the Black Flag leaker is to be believed.

[–]reddingsanon 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Actually, damn, you do have a point there. Anyone not using PGP on black market=dumb.

[–][deleted]  (1 child)

[deleted]

    [–]gwern[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    No. No one took any of the bets.

    [–][deleted]  (1 child)

    [deleted]

      [–]gwern[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

      On which bet, the 6-month or the 12-month? With the latter, our stated odds are such that we don't have enough bitcoins to stake against ฿2, hence our bet offer is "you risk ฿0.66 against our ฿1".

      [–]mister_impossible -1 points0 points  (1 child)

      I agree, but I'd love to hear your reasons for the wager.

      [–]gwern[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

      I lay out my reasoning in detail in the link. (I'm trying to keep all the discussion in one place.)

      [–][deleted] -4 points-3 points  (3 children)

      this guy is obviously LE and knows exactly when its going to be shut down and is trying to profit off of it. If you can't see that then you have no business owning an internet access portal machine

      [–]reaperx2 1 point2 points  (1 child)

      Gwern is not LEO, he wrote a very detailed report about SR http://gwern.net/Silk%20Road . He even recommends that people use PGP LEO would never do that. Also, check out all the other research he's done there's no way a LEO would have enough time to do all that research and write those reports.

      [–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

      i really like that you have a sense of humor

      [–]gwern[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

      Bravo! That's much better than the theory that I am secretly Nanotube.