newsletter/2016/01 (Link Bibliography)

“newsletter/​2016/​01” links:

  1. https://gwern.substack.com

  2. 12

  3. Changelog

  4. https://www.patreon.com/gwern

  5. Longevity#vitamin-d

  6. Milk

  7. ⁠, S. P. Hagenaars, S. E. Harris, G. Davies, W. D. Hill, D. C. M. Liewald, S. J. Ritchie, R. E. Marioni, C. Fawns-Ritchie, B. Cullen, R. Malik, Consortium, International Consortium for Blood Pressure GWAS, SpiroMeta Consortium, CHARGE Consortium Pulmonary Group, CHARGE Consortium Aging and Longevity Group, B. B. Worrall, C. L. M. Sudlow, J. M. Wardlaw, J. Gallacher, J. Pell, A. M. McIntosh, D. J. Smith, C. R. Gale, Ian J. Deary (2016-01-26):

    Causes of the well-documented association between low levels of cognitive functioning and many adverse neuropsychiatric outcomes, poorer physical health and earlier death remain unknown. We used linkage disequilibrium regression and polygenic profile scoring to test for shared genetic aetiology between cognitive functions and neuropsychiatric disorders and physical health. Using information provided by many published genome-wide association study consortia, we created polygenic profile scores for 24 vascular-metabolic, neuropsychiatric, physiological-anthropometric and cognitive traits in the participants of ⁠, a very large population-based sample (n = 112 151). Pleiotropy between cognitive and health traits was quantified by deriving genetic correlations using summary genome-wide association study statistics and to the method of score regression. Substantial and genetic correlations were observed between cognitive test scores in the UK Biobank sample and many of the mental and physical health-related traits and disorders assessed here. In addition, highly statistically-significant associations were observed between the cognitive test scores in the UK Biobank sample and many polygenic profile scores, including coronary artery disease, stroke, Alzheimer’s disease, ⁠, autism, major depressive disorder, ⁠, intracranial volume, infant head circumference and childhood cognitive ability. Where disease diagnosis was available for UK Biobank participants, we were able to show that these results were not confounded by those who had the relevant disease. These findings indicate that a substantial level of pleiotropy exists between cognitive abilities and many human mental and physical health disorders and traits and that it can be used to predict phenotypic across samples.

  8. 2016-plomin.pdf

  9. https://www.propublica.org/article/muscular-dystrophy-patient-olympic-medalist-same-genetic-mutation

  10. https://www.bmj.com/content/349/bmj.g6330.long

  11. http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2016/01/improved-crisprcas9-safe-and-effective.html

  12. 2016-kleinstiver.pdf: “High-fidelity CRISPR–Cas9 nucleases with no detectable genome-wide off-target effects⁠, Benjamin P. Kleinstiver, Vikram Pattanayak, Michelle S. Prew, Shengdar Q. Tsai, Nhu T. Nguyen, Zongli Zheng, J. Keith Joung

  13. 2016-slaymaker.pdf

  14. http://reprints.longform.org/perry-once-upon-a-jihad

  15. https://www.nytimes.com/2001/01/21/magazine/experiencing-ecstasy.html

  16. 1998-iannaccone.pdf: “Introduction to the Economics of Religion”⁠, Laurence R. Iannaccone

  17. https://web.archive.org/web/20161021040958/http://www.matthewklam.com/nonfiction/pilotstale.html

  18. https://www.overthinkingit.com/2012/09/17/star-wars-empire-inter-service-rivalries/?page=all

  19. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012/10/22/boss-rail

  20. http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=16938

  21. 2016-silver.pdf#deepmind: ⁠, David Silver, Aja Huang, Chris J. Maddison, Arthur Guez, Laurent Sifre, George van den Driessche, Julian Schrittwieser, Ioannis Antonoglou, Veda Panneershelvam, Marc Lanctot, Sander Dieleman, Dominik Grewe, John Nham, Nal Kalchbrenner, Ilya Sutskever, Timothy Lillicrap, Madeleine Leach, Koray Kavukcuoglu, Thore Graepel, Demis Hassabis (2016-01-28; reinforcement-learning):

    The game of Go has long been viewed as the most challenging of classic games for artificial intelligence owing to its enormous search space and the difficulty of evaluating board positions and moves. Here we introduce a new approach to computer Go that uses ‘value networks’ to evaluate board positions and ‘policy networks’ to select moves. These deep neural networks are trained by a novel combination of supervised learning from human expert games, and reinforcement learning from games of self-play. Without any lookahead search, the neural networks play Go at the level of state-of-the-art programs that simulate thousands of random games of self-play. We also introduce a new search algorithm that combines with value and policy networks. Using this search algorithm, our program AlphaGo achieved a 99.8% winning rate against other Go programs, and defeated the human European Go champion by 5 games to 0. This is the first time that a computer program has defeated a human professional player in the full-sized game of Go, a feat previously thought to be at least a decade away.

    [Anecdote: I hear from Groq that the original GPU implementation was not on track to defeat Lee Sedol by about a month before, when they happened to gamble on implementing TPUv1 support. The additional compute led to drastic performance gains, and the model could beat the model in ~98 of 100 games, and the final model solidly defeated Lee Sedol. (Since TPUv1s reportedly only did inferencing/​​​​forward-mode, presumably they were not used for the initial imitation learning, or the policy gradients self-play, but for generating the ~30 million self-play games which the value network was trained on (doing regression/​​​​prediction of ‘board → P(win)’, requiring no state or activations from the self-play games, just generating an extremely large corpus which could be easily used by GPU training.]

  22. http://futureoflife.org/2015/12/29/the-top-a-i-breakthroughs-of-2015/

  23. ⁠, Dougal Maclaurin, David Duvenaud, Ryan P. Adams (2015-02-11):

    Tuning hyperparameters of learning algorithms is hard because gradients are usually unavailable. We compute exact gradients of cross-validation performance with respect to all hyperparameters by chaining derivatives backwards through the entire training procedure. These gradients allow us to optimize thousands of hyperparameters, including step-size and momentum schedules, weight initialization distributions, richly parameterized regularization schemes, and neural network architectures. We compute hyperparameter gradients by exactly reversing the dynamics of with momentum.

  24. https://felixlaumon.github.io/2015/01/08/kaggle-right-whale.html

  25. https://old.reddit.com/r/DecisionTheory/

  26. 1926-yule.pdf: “Why do we Sometimes get Nonsense-Correlations between Time-Series?—A Study in Sampling and the Nature of Time-Series”⁠, G. Udny Yule

  27. 2006-papanikolaou.pdf

  28. Correlation

  29. https://www.fightaging.org/archives/2015/12/a-look-back-at-2015-in-longevity-science.php

  30. http://papers.nips.cc/paper/3725-bayesian-belief-polarization.pdf

  31. ⁠, Robin Hanson (2009-07-04):

    A better intuition for common abilities can be found by browsing the US National Assessment of Adult Literacy sample questions⁠.

    For example, in 1992 out of a random sample of US adults, 7% could not do item SCOR300, which is to find the expiration date on a driver’s license. 26% could not do item AB60303, which is to check the “Please Call” box on a phone message slip when they’ve been told:

    James Davidson phones and asks to speak with Ann Jones, who is at a meeting. He needs to know if the contracts he sent are satisfactory and requests that she call before 2:00PM. His number is 259-3860. Fill in the message slip below.

    Only 52% could do item AB30901, which is to look at a table on page 118 of the 1980 World Almanac and answer:

    According to the chart, did U.S. exports of oil (petroleum) increase or decrease between 1976 and 1978?

  32. http://www.vox.com/2015/2/4/7972077/against-oversleeping

  33. http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/hughes20121016

  34. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JHcTP4Ad8QAmRTCZm/be-happier

  35. http://ideas.4brad.com/google-releases-detailed-intervention-rates-and-real-unsolved-problem-robocars

  36. http://web.cs.ucdavis.edu/~rogaway/papers/moral-fn.pdf

  37. http://nautil.us/issue/32/space/these-tricks-make-virtual-reality-feel-real

  38. http://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2012/10/dead-reckoning-and-exploration-explosion.html

  39. https://www.econlib.org/archives/2012/10/does_high_schoo.html

  40. 2012-schneier-liarsandoutliers-ch13.pdf

  41. https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/econ_focus/2012/q2-3/pdf/interview.pdf

  42. http://kajsotala.fi/2012/10/technology-will-destroy-human-nature/

  43. http://blog.talkingphilosophy.com/?p=6160

  44. http://www.futilitycloset.com/2012/10/02/the-star-gauge/

  45. Anime#the-kingdom-of-dreams-and-madness

  46. https://www.dropbox.com/s/9jywdtl3xf9iqu1/%E6%B0%B4%E6%A9%8B%E3%82%86%E3%81%A3%E3%81%8D-teahakugyokurou-%E3%81%AD%E3%81%93%E3%81%BE%E3%81%9F%E3%82%A2%E3%82%AD%E3%82%A2%E3%83%88.ogg

  47. https://www.dropbox.com/s/1r2yj1u4ichhq6j/setsugen-%E5%A5%8F%E4%B9%B1%E7%B5%B5%E5%B7%BB-%E7%8B%82%E6%B0%97%E3%81%AE%E7%9E%B3lunaticeyes.ogg

  48. https://www.dropbox.com/s/qyvgn4y2iqs6g3n/setsugen-%E5%A5%8F%E4%B9%B1%E7%B5%B5%E5%B7%BB-%E5%A3%B1%E3%80%81%E6%84%9F%E6%83%85%E3%81%AE%E6%91%A9%E5%A4%A9%E6%A5%BCemotionalskyscraper.ogg

  49. https://www.dropbox.com/s/oe6imnheps6a1hy/setsugen-%E5%A5%8F%E4%B9%B1%E7%B5%B5%E5%B7%BB-%E3%82%82%E3%81%86%E6%AD%8C%E3%81%97%E3%81%8B%E8%81%9E%E3%81%93%E3%81%88%E3%81%AA%E3%81%84%E5%A4%9C%E9%9B%80%E3%81%AE%E6%AD%8C%E5%A3%B0deaftoallbutthesong.ogg

  50. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0VJrjLN-W4

  51. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rd9H3ufpGU