Prediction-markets (Link Bibliography)

“Prediction-markets” links:

  1. http://www.unc.edu/~cigar/papers/PoP_submit4.pdf

  2. http://rajivsethi.blogspot.com/2011/03/on-interpretation-of-prediction-market.html

  3. http://rajivsethi.blogspot.com/2011/03/from-order-books-to-belief.html

  4. http://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/33261/1/510931871.pdf

  5. http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/amm/

  6. https://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/presidential-de.html

  7. http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2008/11/13/automated-market-maker-results/

  8. http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Smoking_lesion

  9. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3z8xxvSib8LQuhFaa/does-evidential-decision-theory-really-fail-solomon-s

  10. https://www.lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/tag/calibration/

  11. 2001-rowe.pdf

  12. 1996-rowe.pdf

  13. 1988-arkes.pdf: ⁠, Hal R. Arkes, David Faust, Thomas J. Guilmette, Kathleen Hart (1988-05; sunk-cost):

    Those who consider the likelihood of an event after it has occurred exaggerate their likelihood of having been able to predict that event in advance. We attempted to eliminate this hindsight bias among 194 neuropsychologists. Foresight subjects read a case history and were asked to estimate the probability of three different diagnoses. Subjects in each of the three hindsight groups were told that one of the three diagnoses was correct and were asked to state what probability they would have assigned to each diagnosis if they were making the original diagnosis. Foresight-reasons and hindsight-reasons subjects performed the same task as their foresight and hindsight counterparts, except they had to list one reason why each of the possible diagnoses might be correct. The frequency of subjects succumbing to the hindsight bias was lower in the hindsight-reasons groups than in the hindsight groups not asked to list reasons, x2( 1, N = 140) = 4.12, p < 0.05.

  14. http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/10/how-friends-ruin-memory-the-social-conformity-effect/

  15. http://www.weizmann.ac.il/neurobiology/labs/dudai/uploads/files/Science-2011-Edelson-108-11.pdf

  16. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dciuB5nTG2o9PzJWe/test-your-calibration

  17. https://predictionbook.com/users/gwern

  18. https://predictionbook.com/

  19. http://www.elem.com/~btilly/kelly-criterion/

  20. http://r6.ca/blog/20070816T193609Z.html

  21. http://r6.ca/blog/20070820T175938Z.html

  22. http://r6.ca/blog/20090522T015739Z.html

  23. https://web.archive.org/web/20140102011857/http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazine/16-06/st_essay

  24. https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=702407&z=1285870999458

  25. #how-much-to-bet

  26. https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=639648&z=1285871684768

  27. https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=652756&z=1285872122100

  28. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/460

  29. https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=686537&z=1290800258450

  30. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/378

  31. https://www.lesswrong.com/

  32. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YhZsCdEi6a6G7sSBD/2011-intrade-fee-changes-or-intrade-considered-no-longer

  33. http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/help/index.jsp?page=general.html%23fees

  34. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/4797.page#44860

  35. http://www.portfolio.com/views/blogs/market-movers/2008/12/03/the-problem-with-intrade/

  36. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2051

  37. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2052

  38. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2053

  39. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/4236

  40. http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Witcoin

  41. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ijr8rsyvJci2edxot/making-money-with-bitcoin?commentId=umgwisuM8bxw8HPRv

  42. http://unqualified-reservations.blogspot.com/2011/04/on-monetary-restandardization.html

  43. Silk-Road

  44. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/7485

  45. https://web.archive.org/web/20140723071618/http://www.bitcointrading.com/forum/talk-bitcoin/confused-about-the-7-8-9-5-btcusd-bubble-answers-here-bitcoin-2012-07-17/

  46. https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/wpllp/can_someone_explain_in_simple_terms_what_the_hell/

  47. https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/MtGox

  48. http://bitcoin-otc.com/

  49. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/68TGNutjDcBcq6PCZ/bitcoin-cryonics-fund?commentId=5Da2f8n9aXmfJ7FYA

  50. https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bets_of_Bitcoin

  51. http://betsofbitco.in/help

  52. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=339544.0;all

  53. http://zerocoin.org/media/pdf/ZerocoinOakland.pdf

  54. http://blog.cryptographyengineering.com/2013/04/zerocoin-making-bitcoin-anonymous.html

  55. http://zerocoin.org/

  56. https://nitter.hu/matthew_d_green/status/401797786347114496

  57. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=279249.0;all

  58. In-Defense-Of-Inclusionism

  59. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/22178

  60. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/22179

  61. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/22180

  62. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/22181

  63. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/22182

  64. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/11/a-bet-is-a-tax-on-bullshit.html

  65. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w7ozrkxRsXF9DEreq/eliezer-yudkowsky-and-michael-vassar-at-nyu-thursday-march?commentId=rNw7QKkr9SEojxja2

  66. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pBTcCB5uJTzADdMm4/harry-potter-and-the-methods-of-rationality-discussion-15?commentId=qw9jdGrk5nGzjepyZ

  67. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fLaKKRZckYtrrcz7m/link-reddit-help-me-find-some-peace-i-m-dying-young786d

  68. http://www.forbes.com/sites/haydnshaughnessy/2013/05/08/what-is-driving-the-google-stock-price-up/

  69. https://old.reddit.com/r/HPMOR/comments/1hc6x6/spoiler_discussion_thread_for_ch_8889/cat7wsz

  70. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hxGEKxaHZEKT4fpms/our-phyg-is-not-exclusive-enough?commentId=pqqSFKmy8JwCv5Pcq

  71. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6518399

  72. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/21664

  73. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/21779

  74. http://pastebin.com/raw.php?i=0Psiuupw

  75. https://old.reddit.com/r/SilkRoad/comments/1pko9y/the_bet_bmr_and_sheep_to_die_in_a_year/

  76. https://old.reddit.com/r/SilkRoad/comments/1pko9y/the_bet_bmr_and_sheep_to_die_in_a_year/cd3ar75

  77. https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/10/idea-talkers-clump.html

  78. https://nitter.hu/carlking/status/822128552015314945

  79. https://nitter.hu/carlking

  80. https://www.amazon.com/Rational-Decisions-Gorman-Lectures-Economics/dp/0691149895/

  81. Spaced-repetition

  82. ⁠, Bayer, Hannah M. Glimcher, Paul W (2005):

    The midbrain neurons are hypothesized to provide a physiological correlate of the reward prediction error signal required by current models of reinforcement learning. We examined the activity of single dopamine neurons during a task in which subjects learned by trial and error when to make an eye movement for a juice reward. We found that these neurons encoded the difference between the current reward and a weighted average of previous rewards, a reward prediction error, but only for outcomes that were better than expected. Thus, the firing rate of midbrain dopamine neurons is quantitatively predicted by theoretical descriptions of the reward prediction error signal used in reinforcement learning models for circumstances in which this signal has a positive value. We also found that the dopamine system continued to compute the reward prediction error even when the behavioral policy of the animal was only weakly influenced by this computation.

  83. ⁠, Kidd, Celeste Hayden, Benjamin Y (2015):

    Curiosity is a basic element of our cognition, but its biological function, mechanisms, and neural underpinning remain poorly understood. It is nonetheless a motivator for learning, influential in decision-making, and crucial for healthy development. One factor limiting our understanding of it is the lack of a widely agreed upon delineation of what is and is not curiosity. Another factor is the dearth of standardized laboratory tasks that manipulate curiosity in the lab. Despite these barriers, recent years have seen a major growth of interest in both the neuroscience and psychology of curiosity. In this Perspective, we advocate for the importance of the field, provide a selective overview of its current state, and describe tasks that are used to study curiosity and information-seeking. We propose that, rather than worry about defining curiosity, it is more helpful to consider the motivations for information-seeking behavior and to study it in its ethological context.

  84. https://nitter.hu/alaindebotton/status/112772752041181184

  85. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hupPceQLxhYZNSC5B/making-an-amanda-knox-prediction-market

  86. https://www.lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/1ir/you_be_the_jury_survey_on_a_current_event/

  87. http://www.davidbrin.com/predictionsregistry.htm

  88. http://www.predictionbook.com

  89. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/future

  90. Long-Bets

  91. http://longbets.org/362/

  92. http://www.futuretimeline.net/

  93. About#long-content

  94. https://www.amazon.com/Expert-Political-Judgment-Good-Know/dp/0691128715/

  95. https://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/foxes_vs_hedgho.html

  96. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CKW8c2Bngz9yXibSk/statistical-prediction-rules-out-perform-expert-human

  97. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mZJs7FxxmhMvFxuse/futuristic-predictions-as-consumable-goods

  98. https://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/08/tetlock-wisdom.html

  99. https://www.metaculus.com/

  100. https://predictionbook.com/predictions

  101. http://betsofbitco.in/list?status=available&category=All&sorting=-moderationTime

  102. http://betsofbitco.in/list?status=available&category=All&sorting=deadlineTime

  103. http://home.inklingmarkets.com/recent/markets

  104. http://home.inklingmarkets.com/expiring/markets

  105. http://markets.nitle.org/markets

  106. http://markets.nitle.org/expiring/markets

  107. https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&tag=4

  108. https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&tag=3

  109. http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/ListClaims

  110. http://feeds.feedburner.com/longbets

  111. http://www.hsx.com/security/feature.php?type=opening

  112. http://www.hsx.com/security/feature.php?type=upcoming

  113. http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/ace

  114. http://goodjudgmentproject.blogspot.com/

  115. http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/08/do-political-experts-know-what-theyre-talking-about/

  116. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PyuRcbHvxXNdCHoG3/link-get-paid-to-train-your-rationality

  117. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2973

  118. 2011-gwern-gjp-psychsurveys.html

  119. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2978

  120. http://www.google.com/search?q=%22GJP%3A%20%22%20site%3Apredictionbook%2Ecom

  121. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3254

  122. 2011-gwern-gjp-forecastresults.html

  123. 2013-gwern-gjp-forecastresults.pdf

  124. gjp-season4-allpages.maff

  125. https://www.lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/1f8/test_your_calibration/

  126. http://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/20100/wits-wagers

  127. https://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business/dp/0470539399/

  128. Fermi

  129. https://yourmorals.org/

  130. evalinfo_process.html

  131. cog_ab_process.html

  132. bidr_process.html

  133. crowne_process.html

  134. selfeval_process.html

  135. 2001-armstrong-principlesforecasting.pdf: ⁠, J. Scott Armstrong (2001; prediction):

    Forecasting is important in many aspects of our lives. As individuals, we try to predict success in our marriages, occupations, and investments. Organizations invest enormous amounts based on forecasts for new products, factories, retail outlets, and contracts with executives. Government agencies need forecasts of the economy, environmental impacts, new sports stadiums, and effects of proposed social programs.

    The purpose of this book is to summarize knowledge of forecasting as a set of principles. These “principles” represent advice, guidelines, prescriptions, condition-action statements, and rules. We expect principles to be supported by empirical evidence. For this book, however, I asked authors to be ambitious in identifying principles for forecasting by including those based on expert judgment and even those that might be speculative. The authors describe the evidence so that you can judge how much confidence can be placed in the principles.

    To summarize the findings, I invited 39 leading researchers to describe principles in their areas of expertise…Most of the book is devoted to descriptions of forecasting methods, discussions of the conditions under which they are most useful, and summaries of the evidence.

  136. https://www.amazon.com/Risk-Intelligence-How-Live-Uncertainty/dp/1451610904/

  137. https://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304451104577392270431239772.html

  138. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yE4Fdx4kYmQchBCek/1001-predictionbook-nights

  139. ⁠, Paul Graham (2009-02):

    As a rule, any mention of religion on an online forum degenerates into a religious argument. Why? Why does this happen with religion and not with Javascript or baking or other topics people talk about on forums?

    …I think what religion and politics have in common is that they become part of people’s identity, and people can never have a fruitful argument about something that’s part of their identity. By definition they’re partisan.

    Which topics engage people’s identity depends on the people, not the topic. For example, a discussion about a battle that included citizens of one or more of the countries involved would probably degenerate into a political argument. But a discussion today about a battle that took place in the Bronze Age probably wouldn’t. No one would know what side to be on. So it’s not politics that’s the source of the trouble, but identity. When people say a discussion has degenerated into a religious war, what they really mean is that it has started to be driven mostly by people’s identities. [1: When that happens, it tends to happen fast, like a core going critical. The threshold for participating goes down to zero, which brings in more people. And they tend to say incendiary things, which draw more and angrier counterarguments.]

    …More generally, you can have a fruitful discussion about a topic only if it doesn’t engage the identities of any of the participants. What makes politics and religion such minefields is that they engage so many people’s identities. But you could in principle have a useful conversation about them with some people. And there are other topics that might seem harmless, like the relative merits of Ford and Chevy pickup trucks, that you couldn’t safely talk about with others.

    Most people reading this will already be fairly tolerant. But there is a step beyond thinking of yourself as x but tolerating y: not even to consider yourself an x. The more labels you have for yourself, the dumber they make you.

  140. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XhaKvQyHzeXdNnFKy/probability-is-subjectively-objective

  141. http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalists_should_win

  142. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sYgv4eYH82JEsTD34/beyond-the-reach-of-god

  143. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EFQ3F6kmt4WHXRqik/ugh-fields

  144. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tNnhxNYcXYdJYtQRh/overcoming-suffering-emotional-acceptance

  145. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dHQkDNMhj692ayx78/avoiding-your-belief-s-real-weak-points

  146. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wCqfCLs8z5Qw4GbKS/the-importance-of-saying-oops

  147. http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/How_To_Actually_Change_Your_Mind

  148. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DoLQN5ryZ9XkZjq5h/tsuyoku-naritai-i-want-to-become-stronger

  149. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HWH46whexsoqR3yXk/normal-ending-last-tears-6-8?commentId=GZb3kSi9ZrBQHFY5P

  150. http://comipress.com/article/2007/07/02/2228

  151. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ofSYgmMby7iqxJqi6/predictionbook-com-track-your-calibration

  152. #cashing-out

  153. Archiving-URLs

  154. http://longbets.org/

  155. http://futuretimeline.net/

  156. http://www.arthurcclarke.net/?scifi=3

  157. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PybtwazftXzvcQSiQ/new-year-s-predictions-thread

  158. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KdxC34w596fMat3pk/new-year-s-predictions-thread-2011

  159. http://www.google.com/search?q=lesswrong.com%20site%3Apredictionbook.com

  160. http://www.google.com/search?q=predictionbook%2Ecom%20site%3Areddit%2Ecom

  161. http://fskrealityguide.blogspot.com/2008/02/defect-of-intrade.html

  162. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4Rrkdz9eRL5HtH6cc/arbitrage-of-prediction-markets

  163. http://www.freakonomics.com/2007/05/24/what-do-you-have-to-say-about-ron-paul/

  164. http://www.regruntled.com/2008/10/21/selling-delusion-short/

  165. http://www.regruntled.com/2008/11/06/intrade-retrospective/

  166. http://www.econ.ku.dk/tyran/Teaching/BEecon_MA/readings_BEecon/readings%20MA_Expecon/Wolfers%20and%20Zitzewitz_Prediction%20Markets_JEP2004.pdf

  167. http://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1421&context=edissertations

  168. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4Rrkdz9eRL5HtH6cc/arbitrage-of-prediction-markets1b2l

  169. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3048

  170. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3052

  171. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3073

  172. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sP2Hg6uPwpfp3jZJN/lost-purposes

  173. http://projects.csail.mit.edu/gsb/old-archive/gsb-archive/gsb2000-02-11.html

  174. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CfTH84gGFCRqo8D7t/cult-impressions-of-less-wrong-singularity-institute?commentId=u7Ga5JhcoyuYSKRSq

  175. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kn6H8Tk6EPT4Atq4k/test-your-rationality?commentId=3PkwsKYyhNBgvbs2f

  176. http://www.paulgraham.com/heroes.html

  177. otaku-predictions

  178. Nootropics#adderall-blind-testing

  179. Nootropics#modalert-blind-day-trial

  180. LSD-microdosing

  181. Summer-of-Code

  182. Summer-of-Code#predicting-2010-results

  183. Summer-of-Code#predicting-2011-results

  184. Summer-of-Code#predictions

  185. Summer-of-Code#predictions-1

  186. Google-shutdowns#predictions

  187. http://www.paulgraham.com/charisma.html

  188. http://www.chronopause.com

  189. https://nitter.hu/stevenkaas/statuses/149616831290818560

  190. Silk-Road#fn3

  191. About

  192. Choosing-Software

  193. Mistakes

  194. Nootropics

  195. Zeo

  196. Notes#the-hidden-library-of-the-long-now

  197. Wikipedia-and-Knol

  198. Google-shutdowns

  199. hpmor-predictions

  200. Slowing-Moores-Law

  201. 2002-takeda-notenkimemoirs#fn222

  202. Modafinil

  203. Death-Note-script

  204. 2011-davis

  205. 2014-mccaleb

  206. Blackmail

  207. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mja6jZ6k9gAwki9Nu/the-mystery-of-the-haunted-rationalist

  208. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tWrTR8JGT9CRShtW2/remind-physicalists-they-re-physicalists

  209. https://orwell.ru/library/articles/nose/english/e_nose

  210. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pkFazhcTErMw7TFtT/the-sin-of-underconfidence

  211. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2909

  212. http://www.hamilton.edu/news/polls/pundit/an-analysis-of-the-accuracy-of-forecasts-in-the-political-media.pdf

  213. https://www.fanfiction.net/s/5782108/20/Harry_Potter_and_the_Methods_of_Rationality

  214. http://www.hpmor.com/

  215. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PybtwazftXzvcQSiQ/new-year-s-predictions-thread2hg3

  216. http://csjarchive.cogsci.rpi.edu/Proceedings/2005/docs/p512.pdf

  217. https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00904097/document

  218. http://rationalpoker.com/2011/04/21/this-is-what-5-feels-like/

  219. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CPm5LTwHrvBJCa9h5/planning-fallacy

  220. http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Hindsight_bias

  221. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2030

  222. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4gevjbK77NQS6hybY/understanding-your-understanding

  223. https://www.amazon.com/Yogi-Book-Berra/dp/0761154434/

  224. ⁠, Cox, Anthony D. Cox, Dena Cyrier, Rosalie Graham-Dotson, Yolanda Zimet, Gregory D (2012):

    Objective: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains a serious public health problem, due in part to low vaccination rates among high-risk adults, many of whom decline vaccination because of barriers such as perceived inconvenience or discomfort. This study evaluates the efficacy of a self-prediction intervention to increase HBV vaccination rates among high-risk adults.

    Method: of 1,175 adults recruited from three sexually transmitted disease clinics in the United States over 28 months. Participants completed an audio-computer-assisted self-interview, which presented information about HBV infection and vaccination, and measured relevant beliefs, behaviors, and demographics. Half of participants were assigned randomly to a “self-prediction” intervention, asking them to predict their future acceptance of HBV vaccination. The main outcome measure was subsequent vaccination behavior. Other measures included perceived barriers to HBV vaccination, measured to the intervention.

    Results: There was a significant interaction between the intervention and vaccination barriers, indicating the effect of the intervention differed depending on perceived vaccination barriers. Among high-barriers patients, the intervention significantly increased vaccination acceptance. Among low-barriers patients, the intervention did not influence vaccination acceptance.

    Conclusions: The self-prediction intervention significantly increased vaccination acceptance among “high-barriers” patients, who typically have very low vaccination rates. This brief intervention could be a useful tool in increasing vaccine uptake among high-barriers patients.

  225. https://www.fanfiction.net/s/5782108/22/Harry_Potter_and_the_Methods_of_Rationality

  226. http://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

  227. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r8aAqSBeeeMNRtiYK/techniques-for-probability-estimates

  228. 1986-osberg.pdf

  229. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/4654

  230. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/1691

  231. http://press.collegeboard.org/releases/2011/43-percent-2011-college-bound-seniors-met-sat-college-and-career-readiness-benchmark

  232. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3847

  233. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/4431

  234. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2011/11/what-is-the-future-of-solar-power.html

  235. https://www.overcomingbias.com/2011/11/when-see-solar.html

  236. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/4145

  237. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/5070

  238. https://nitter.hu/stevenkaas/status/9852587905912832

  239. 1994-falk

  240. https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art13.html

  241. 1978-fischhoff.pdf

  242. 2012-election-predictions

  243. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aPrCzeFfbBmRsvzby/calibrate-your-self-assessments

  244. https://jessegalef.com/2011/08/17/calibrating-our-confidence/

  245. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WLun5oQGXu3aLN7oJ/calibration-test-with-database-of-150-000-questions

  246. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jx4gGbPi7GuydwvzB/amanda-knox-post-mortem

  247. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KMF9dmiTfdBDfHAhC/predictionbook-a-short-note

  248. http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2014/02/decision-journal/

  249. https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/07/26/prediction-markets-when-do-they-work/

  250. ⁠, AI Impacts (2019-02-15):

    Figure 0: The four main determinants of forecasting accuracy. GJP's tools: averaging of forecasts; selecting 'superforecasters' to over-weight in averaging; training of superforecasters; teaming up forecasters; aggregation algorithms to reweight further.

    Figure 0: The “four main determinants of forecasting accuracy.” This graph can be found here⁠, the GJP’s list of academic literature on this topic. The graph illustrates approximate relative effects. It will be discussed more in Section 2.

    Experience and data from the Good Judgment Project (GJP) provide important evidence about how to make accurate predictions. For a concise summary of the evidence and what we learn from it, see this page⁠. For a review of Superforecasting⁠, the popular book written on the subject, see this blog⁠.

    This post explores the evidence in more detail, drawing from the book, the academic literature, the older Expert Political Judgment book, and an interview with a superforecaster.

    …Tetlock describes how superforecasters go about making their predictions.56 Here is an attempt at a summary:

    1. Sometimes a question can be answered more rigorously if it is first “Fermi-ized”, ie. broken down into sub-questions for which more rigorous methods can be applied.
    2. Next, use the outside view on the sub-questions (and/​​​​​or the main question, if possible). You may then adjust your estimates using other considerations (‘the inside view’), but do this cautiously.
    3. Seek out other perspectives, both on the sub-questions and on how to Fermi-ize the main question. You can also generate other perspectives yourself.
    4. Repeat steps 1–3 until you hit ⁠.
    5. Your final prediction should be based on an aggregation of various models, reference classes, other experts, etc.
  251. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/hqkyaHLQhzuREcXSX/data-on-forecasting-accuracy-across-different-time-horizons

  252. ⁠, Nuño Sempere, Alex Lawsen (2021-06-21):

    We present alignment problems in current forecasting platforms, such as Good Judgment Open, CSET-Foretell or Metaculus. We classify those problems as either reward specification problems or ⁠, and we propose solutions. For instance, the scoring rule used by Good Judgment Open is not proper, and Metaculus tournaments disincentivize sharing information and incentivize distorting one’s true probabilities to maximize the chances of placing in the top few positions which earn a monetary reward. We also point out some partial similarities between the problem of aligning forecasters and the problem of aligning artificial intelligence systems.

  253. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6489135

  254. Modus

  255. http://chronopause.com/chronopause.com/index.php/2011/08/09/fucked/#comment-3171

  256. http://chronopause.com/chronopause.com/index.php/2011/08/05/science-fiction-double-feature-2-part-2/index.html

  257. plastination

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  276. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3616

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  281. https://slate.com/id/2281668/

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  287. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3131

  288. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3132

  289. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3133

  290. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3134