See Also

Miscellaneous

• /doc/ai/scaling/economics/2023-fortune-figure1-economicsoftheopenaidealsankeyplotofflowofprofitdistributionthroughthecappedreturninvestmentrepaymentphases.png⁠:

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• /doc/ai/scaling/economics/2021-martinezplumed-figure1-progressinaccuracyovertimeforimagenet.png⁠:

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• /doc/ai/scaling/economics/2021-martinezplumed-figure3-mostsuccessfulinstitutionsbytotalsotajumps.png⁠:

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• /doc/ai/scaling/economics/2021-martinezplumed-table1-listofaibenchmarksusedintheanalysisbytask.png⁠:

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• /doc/ai/scaling/economics/2019-11-07-sastry-aiandcompute-addendum-twoerasofcompute-all.png⁠:

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• /doc/ai/scaling/economics/2018-amodei-aiandcompute-modernera-loggraph.png⁠:

  /doc/ai/scaling/economics/2018-amodei-aiandcompute-modernera-loggraph.png

• https://a16z.com/2020/08/12/taming-the-tail-adventures-in-improving-ai-economics/⁠:

  View HTML:

  /doc/www/a16z.com/8a09c8918ca51ba5016c58de82b883c054307345.html

• https://andromeda.ai/

• https://bakztfuture.substack.com/p/how-to-build-a-startup-monopoly-with

• https://blog.eladgil.com/p/ai-platforms-markets-and-open-source⁠:

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  /doc/www/blog.eladgil.com/2e8b24218b5c85844940a17ffdcc61613801f318.html

• https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2020/11/10/openai-partnership-digital-export-controls/

• https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2024/03/12/how-to-feed-the-ais/

• https://cohere.com/

• https://colinraffel.com/blog/a-call-to-build-models-like-we-build-open-source-software.html

• https://danwang.co/technological-momentum/

• https://dynomight.substack.com/p/llms

• https://evabehrens.substack.com/p/the-agi-race-between-the-us-and-china

• https://fortune.com/2023/11/29/stability-ai-sale-intel-ceo-resign/

• https://github.com/ray-project/llm-numbers

• https://gpus.llm-utils.org/nvidia-h100-gpus-supply-and-demand/

• https://gpus.llm-utils.org/nvidia-h100-gpus-supply-and-demand/#how-do-the-big-clouds-compare

• https://minimaxir.com/2023/03/new-chatgpt-overlord/

• https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37834750

• https://openai.com/blog/introducing-chatgpt-and-whisper-apis

• https://openai.com/fund/

• https://outlast.me/robot-hiveminds-with-network-effects/

• https://restofworld.org/2023/ai-revolution-outsourced-workers/

• https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2023/07/25/anthropic-observations/

• https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1635577836525469697

• https://twitter.com/JosephJacks_/status/1647328379266551808

• https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1609244547460255744

• https://twitter.com/natfriedman/status/1712141463876776415

• https://twitter.com/sama/status/1739360234832052641

• https://tytonpartners.com/app/uploads/2023/10/GenAI-IN-HIGHER-EDUCATION-FALL-2023-UPDATE-TIME-FOR-CLASS-STUDY.pdf#page=4

• https://www.adept.ai/blog/introducing-adept

• https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/rtEtTybuCcDWLk7N9/ama-conjecture-a-new-alignment-startup

• https://www.allencheng.com/starting-a-business-around-gpt-3-is-a-bad-idea/

• https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-124-million-to-build-more-reliable-general-ai-systems#series-b

• https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/davidson-on-takeoff-speeds

• https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2022/5/27/theres-no-such-thing-as-data⁠:

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• https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/carl-shulman

• https://www.erichgrunewald.com/posts/the-prospect-of-an-ai-winter/

• https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/QNRs_FHI-TR-2021-3.0.pdf#page=2⁠:

  View PDF:

  https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/QNRs_FHI-TR-2021-3.0.pdf#page=2

• https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/illusion-chinas-ai-prowess-regulation-helen-toner

• https://www.governance.ai/post/compute-funds-and-pre-trained-models

• https://www.honeycomb.io/blog/hard-stuff-nobody-talks-about-llm

• https://www.interconnects.ai/p/ai-research-job-market

• https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QWuegBA9kGBv3xBFy/the-colliding-exponentials-of-ai

• https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Sn5NiiD5WBi4dLzaB/agi-will-drastically-increase-economies-of-scale

• https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cB2Rtnp7DBTpDy3ii/memory-bandwidth-constraints-imply-economies-of-scale-in-ai

• https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jfq2BH5kfQqu2vYv3/we-are-conjecture-a-new-alignment-research-startup

• https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2023/04/20/ai-in-hiring-and-evaluating-workers-what-americans-think/

• https://www.reddit.com/r/freelanceWriters/comments/12ff5mw/it_happened_to_me_today/

• https://www.reuters.com/technology/coreweave-raises-23-billion-debt-collateralized-by-nvidia-chips-2023-08-03/

• https://www.semianalysis.com/p/ai-datacenter-energy-dilemma-race

• https://www.theregister.com/2023/11/07/bing_gpu_oracle/

• https://www.vice.com/en/article/v7begx/overemployed-hustlers-exploit-chatgpt-to-take-on-even-more-full-time-jobs

• https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23794855/anthropic-ai-openai-claude-2

• https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/03/07/ai-data-centers-power/

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8T1O81W96Y

• https://www.zdnet.com/article/microsoft-has-over-a-million-paying-github-copilot-users-ceo-nadella/

Link Bibliography

1. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/10/technology/ai-chatbot-training-chatgpt.html: “Now Hiring: Sophisticated (but Part-Time) Chatbot Tutors: The Human Work of Teaching A.I. Is Getting a Lot More Complex As the Technology Improves”, Yiwen Lu

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2. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/06/technology/tech-giants-harvest-data-artificial-intelligence.html: “How Tech Giants Cut Corners to Harvest Data for AI: OpenAI, Google and Meta Ignored Corporate Policies, Altered Their Own Rules and Discussed Skirting Copyright Law As They Sought Online Information to Train Their Newest Artificial Intelligence Systems”, Cade Metz, Cecilia Kang, Sheera Frenkel, Stuart A. Thompson, Nico Grant

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3. https://www.reuters.com/technology/inside-big-techs-underground-race-buy-ai-training-data-2024-04-05/: “Inside Big Tech’s Underground Race to Buy AI Training Data”, Katie Paul, Anna Tong

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4. https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/a-peter-thiel-backed-ai-startup-cognition-labs-seeks-2-billion-valuation-998fa39d: “A Peter Thiel-Backed AI Startup, Cognition Labs, Seeks $2 Billion Valuation: Funding round Could Increase Startup’s Valuation Nearly Sixfold in a Matter of Weeks, Reflecting AI Frenzy”, Berber Jin

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5. https://www.wired.com/story/fast-forward-nsa-warns-us-adversaries-private-data-ai-edge/: “The NSA Warns That US Adversaries Free to Mine Private Data May Have an AI Edge: Gilbert Herrera, Who Leads Research at the National Security Agency, Says Large Language Models Are Incredibly Useful—And a Bit of a Headache—For America’s Intelligence Machine”, Will Knight

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6. https://puck.news/marc-andreessen-eats-washington/: “Marc Andreessen Eats Washington”, Theodore Schleifer

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7. https://twitter.com/FutureJurvetson/status/1728076563285971040: “Google Now Spends More on Compute Than on People”, Steve Jurvetson

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8. https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-seeks-new-valuation-of-up-to-90-billion-in-sale-of-existing-shares-ed6229e0: “OpenAI Seeks New Valuation of Up to $90 Billion in Sale of Existing Shares”, Deepa Seetharaman

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9. https://www.theinformation.com/articles/why-youtube-could-give-google-an-edge-in-ai: “Why YouTube Could Give Google an Edge in AI”, Jon Victor

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10. https://www.wsj.com/articles/microsoft-and-openai-forge-awkward-partnership-as-techs-new-power-couple-3092de51: “Microsoft and OpenAI Forge Awkward Partnership As Tech’s New Power Couple: As the Companies Lead the AI Boom, Their Unconventional Arrangement Sometimes Causes Conflict”, Tom Dotan, Deepa Seetharaman

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11. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-ai-boom-runs-on-chips-but-it-cant-get-enough-9f76f554: “The AI Boom Runs on Chips, but It Can’t Get Enough: ‘It’s like Toilet Paper during the Pandemic.’ Startups, Investors Scrounge for Computational Firepower”, Deepa Seetharaman, Tom Dotan

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12. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/world/asia/china-chatbots-ai.html: “China Says Chatbots Must Toe the Party Line: The Communist Party Outlined Draft Rules That Would Set Guardrails on the Rapidly Growing Industry of Services like ChatGPT”, Chang Che

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13. https://restofworld.org/2023/chatgpt-taking-kenya-ghostwriters-jobs/: “AI Is Taking the Jobs of Kenyans Who Write Essays for U.S. College Students: Ghostwriters Say the Meteoric Rise of ChatGPT Has Coincided With a Drop in Income”, Martin J. N. Siele

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14. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/07/technology/ai-chatbots-google-microsoft.html: “In AI Race, Microsoft and Google Choose Speed Over Caution: Technology Companies Were Once Leery of What Some Artificial Intelligence Could Do. Now the Priority Is Winning Control of the Industry’s next Big Thing”, Nico Grant, Karen Weise

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15. https://www.reuters.com/technology/chinese-search-giant-baidu-introduces-ernie-bot-2023-03-16/: “China’s Answer to ChatGPT? Baidu Shares Tumble As Ernie Bot Disappoints”, Eduardo Baptista, Josh Ye

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16. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/China-tech/China-tells-big-tech-companies-not-to-offer-ChatGPT-services: “China Tells Big Tech Companies Not to Offer ChatGPT Services: State Media Outlet Blasts Chatbot As Spreading U.S. Government ‘Misinformation’”, Cissy Zhou

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17. https://twitter.com/davidtayar5/status/1627690520456691712: “Context on the NVIDIA ChatGPT Opportunity—And Ramifications of Large Language Model Enthusiasm”, Morgan Stanley

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18. https://stratechery.com/2023/new-bing-and-an-interview-with-kevin-scott-and-sam-altman-about-the-microsoft-openai-partnership/: “New Bing, and an Interview With Kevin Scott and Sam Altman About the Microsoft-OpenAI Partnership”, Ben Thompson

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19. https://www.theverge.com/23589994/microsoft-ceo-satya-nadella-bing-chatgpt-google-search-ai: “Microsoft Thinks AI Can Beat Google at Search—CEO Satya Nadella Explains Why: AI Is Coming for Your Browser, Your Social Media, and Your Operating System, Too”, Nilay Patel

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20. https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2023/02/03/exclusive-openai-sam-altman-chatgpt-agi-google-search/: “OpenAI’s Sam Altman Talks ChatGPT And How Artificial General Intelligence Can ‘Break Capitalism’”, Alex Konrad, Kenrick Cai

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21. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/technology/chatgpt-openai-artificial-intelligence.html: “How ChatGPT Kicked Off an AI Arms Race: Even inside the Company, the Chatbot’s Popularity Has Come As Something of a Shock”, Kevin Roose

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22. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/31/google-testing-chatgpt-like-chatbot-apprentice-bard-with-employees.html: “Google Is Asking Employees to Test Potential ChatGPT Competitors, including a Chatbot Called 'Apprentice Bard'”, Jennifer Elias

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23. https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2023/01/23/microsoftandopenaiextendpartnership/: “Microsoft and OpenAI Extend Partnership”, Microsoft

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24. https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/general-availability-of-azure-openai-service-expands-access-to-large-advanced-ai-models-with-added-enterprise-benefits/: “General Availability of Azure OpenAI Service Expands Access to Large, Advanced AI Models With Added Enterprise Benefits”, Eric Boyd

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25. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/12/technology/microsoft-openai-chatgpt.html: “Microsoft Bets Big on the Creator of ChatGPT in Race to Dominate AI: As a New Chatbot Wows the World With Its Conversational Talents, a Resurgent Tech Giant Is Poised to Reap the Benefits While Doubling down on a Relationship With the Start-Up OpenAI”, Cade Metz, Karen Weise

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26. https://fortune.com/2023/01/11/structure-openai-investment-microsoft/: “Inside the Structure of OpenAI’s Looming New Investment from Microsoft and VCs”, Jessica Mathews, Jeremy Kahn

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27. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/21/technology/ai-chatgpt-google-search.html: “A New Chat Bot Is a ‘Code Red’ for Google’s Search Business: A New Wave of Chat Bots like ChatGPT Use Artificial Intelligence That Could Reinvent or Even Replace the Traditional Internet Search Engine”, Nico Grant, Cade Metz

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28. https://every.to/chain-of-thought/the-knee-of-the-exponential-curve: “Here’s What I Saw at an AI Hackathon: AI Gossip, Celebrity Sightings, Tech Trends—And Some Great Projects”, Dan Shipper

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29. https://greylock.com/greymatter/kevin-scott-ai-programming-possibility/: “Programming Possibility: Kevin Scott on AI’s Impact on Cognitive Work”, Reid Hoffman, Kevin Scott

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30. https://theinsideview.ai/ethan: “Ethan Caballero on Private Scaling Progress”, Ethan Caballero, Michaël Trazzi

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31. https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.07258: “On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models”, Rishi Bommasani, Drew A. Hudson, Ehsan Adeli, Russ Altman, Simran Arora, Sydney von Arx, Michael S. Bernstein

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32. 2021-martinezplumed.pdf: “Research Community Dynamics behind Popular AI Benchmarks”, Fernando Martínez-Plumed, Pablo Barredo, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, José Hernández-Orallo

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33. https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.10350#google: “Carbon Emissions and Large Neural Network Training”, David Patterson, Joseph Gonzalez, Quoc Le, Chen Liang, Lluis-Miquel Munguia, Daniel Rothchild, David So

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34. https://chinai.substack.com/p/chinai-137-year-3-of-chinai: “ChinAI #137: Year 3 of ChinAI: Reflections on the Newsworthiness of Machine Translation”, Jeffrey Ding

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35. https://openai.com/blog/gpt-3-apps/: “GPT-3 Powers the Next Generation of Apps: Over 300 Applications Are Delivering GPT-3–powered Search, Conversation, Text Completion, and Other Advanced AI Features through Our API”, OpenAI

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36. https://openai.com/research/ai-and-compute: “AI and Compute”, Dario Amodei, Danny Hernandez, Girish Sastry, Jack Clark, Greg Brockman, Ilya Sutskever

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