Hacker News submission analysis

Describing HN submissions; estimating manipulability
statistics, shell, R
2013-09-252015-12-01 notes certainty: likely importance: 2


Relat­ed:

  • http://nathanael.hevenet.com/the-best-time-to-post-on-hacker-news-a-comprehensive-answer/
  • http://minimaxir.com/2014/02/hacking-hacker-news/
  • http://minimaxir.com/2014/10/hn-comments-about-comments/
  • http://karpathy.ca/myblog/2013/11/27/quantifying-hacker-news-with-50-days-of-data/ https://cs.stanford.edu/people/karpathy/hn_analysis.html
  • http://metamarkets.com/2011/hacking-hacker-news-headlines/
  • http://danluu.com/randomize-hn/
  • http://www.bayesianwitch.com/blog/2013/why_hn_shouldnt_use_randomized_algorithms.html
  • http://camdp.com/blogs/multi-armed-bandits
  • http://gkosev.blogspot.com/2012/08/fixing-hacker-news-mathematical-approach.html
  • http://blog.rjmetrics.com/2012/10/17/surprising-hacker-news-data-analysis/
  • http://blog.rjmetrics.com/2012/10/24/how-to-get-on-the-front-page-of-hacker-news/
  • http://blog.datadive.net/which-topics-get-the-upvote-on-hacker-news/
  • https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8790134
  • https://porter.io/blog/hackernews-cheaters-catch-me-if-you-can/ https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9332889
  • http://www.righto.com/2013/11/how-hacker-news-ranking-really-works.html
  • https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9336759 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9333611
  • http://www.almostinfinite.com/other/hacker-news-new-page-scroll-of-death.html?
  • https://intoli.com/blog/hacker-news-title-tool/
  • http://cs229.stanford.edu/proj2016/report/GengYuanWang-PredictingPopularityOfPostsOnHackerNews-report.pdf
  • http://varianceexplained.org/r/hn-trends/

Page view counts:

  • 11.8k https://web.archive.org/web/20130719064119/http://aberrant.me/front-page-of-hacker-news/
  • 15k http://www.mikedellanoce.com/2012/09/my-first-hacker-news-effect-experience.html
  • 30k, 12k http://shkspr.mobi/blog/2012/11/whats-the-front-page-of-hackernews-worth/
  • 8.5k http://tumbling.alastair.is/post/17661390124/fun-with-analytics-pitting-hacker-news-and
  • 15k http://najafali.com/zero-to-fifteen-thousand-in-twenty-four-hours.html
  • 15.2k http://www.matvoz.com/blog/2013/10/interesting-facts-about-when-you-get-hit-by-hacker-news-tsunami/
  • 7k unique vis­i­tors http://greig.cc/journal/2013/1/what-does-a-hacker-news-traffic-spike-look-like
  • 10k unique vis­i­tors https://whoapi.com/blog/554/how-hacker-news-hit-us-with-10-000-unique-visitors-in-10-hours/
  • 40k unique vis­i­tors https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7427542 “in one 24 hour peri­od, 35,000 vis­its and 32,000 uniques”

  • https://medium.com/p/81bd75a39425
  • https://baremetrics.io/blog/hacker-news-1500-recurring-revenue
  • 100 views, +4 https://en.avion.io/blog/?escaped_frag­ment=/post/the-story-of-our-hackernews-submission#!/post/the-story-of-our-hackernews-submission
  • 5k pageviews, 3.6k, +42 uniques http://blog.remoteworknewsletter.com/2014/10/15/how-to-valdiate-an-idea-on-hacker-news/
  • 41.3k http://ptotrading.blogspot.com/2014/11/a-message-to-all-non-daytraders-and.html
  • 15,223 ses­sions https://blog.wearewizards.io/the-hacker-news-effect-examined
  • +315, 17,000 sessionshttps://hackernewslater.com/posts/post-launch-front-page-hn/

Submissions

Ques­tion: is sub­mit­ting to HN worth­while?

Sim­ple exper­i­ment: sub­mit each day one link to gwern.net + 2 links to other domains. These serve as both a rough con­trol for that day’s dif­fi­culty of front page, any ben­e­fits or penal­ties applied to my account, and repay­ment to HN for the poten­tial spam­ming.

per nathanael’s post, I tried to con­sis­tently post around 10AM EST (I don’t get up early enough to do 7-8AM EST). Appar­ently he’s wrong? Oh well.

https://news.ycombinator.com/submitted?id=gwern extract stats from http://hn.algolia.com/#!/story/sort_by_date/prefix/0/author%3Agwern ? API: https://hn.algolia.com/api https://github.com/HackerNews/API

Sep 2013, started with: ‘“Equoid” (Charles Stross meets My Lit­tle Pony)’ (http://www.tor.com/stories/2013/09/equoid) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6445266 5 points by gwern 6 months ago; 0 com­ments

mul­ti­-level Pois­son mod­el? Group by Domain and cross group by Day. mix­ture mod­el? seems appro­pri­ate for two dif­fer­ent groups (those who make front page and those who don’t)

can’t fil­ter GA by ycombi­na­tor.­com: https breaks refer­rers

HN API:

wget ‘http://hn.algolia.com/api/v1/search_by_date?tags=story,author_gwern&hitsPerPage=1000’

How to get all my com­ments? This does­n’t work:

wget ‘http://hn.algolia.com/api/v1/search?tags=author_gwern,(comment)&hitsPerPage=999&page=2’ http://hn.algolia.com/api/v1/search?tags=author_gwern,(comment)&hitsPerPage=1000

{“hits”:[],“page”:2,“nbHits”:0,“nbPages”:0,“hitsPer­Page”:999,“pro­cess­ing­TimeMS”:1,“mes­sage”:“you can only fetch the 1000 hits for this query, con­tact us to increase the limit”,“query”:"“,”params“:”advancedSyn­tax=true=false=999=2=au­thor_g­w­ern%2C%28­com­men­t%29"}

algo­lia API is appar­ently heav­ily lim­it­ed: https://github.com/fraction/node-hacker-news-api/issues/11

New API using Fire­base https://github.com/HackerNews/API

library(RCurl)
library(rjson)
user <- "gwern"
user <- fromJSON(getURL(paste0("https://hacker-news.firebaseio.com/v0/user/",user,".json")))
userAll <- sapply(user$submitted, function(id) { Sys.sleep(1); return(fromJSON(getURL(paste0("https://hacker-news.firebaseio.com/v0/item/",id,".json")))); } )

/newest

The social news ser­vice Hacker News has a two-lay­ered orga­ni­za­tion, where newly sub­mit­ted links are dis­played on a ‘/newest’ page seen by few users, and the best (as deter­mined by users vot­ing on each sub­mis­sion) are auto­mat­i­cally selected for dis­play on the high­-­traf­fic main fron­t-­page which most HN users read. I hypoth­e­sized that there is a lack of traf­fic on /newest and this implies that even one vote can sub­stan­tially affect the chance a par­tic­u­lar sub­mis­sion will reach the fron­t-­page, its ulti­mate score, and page-views of the sub­mit­ted link. A ran­dom­ized exper­i­ment in upvot­ing small batches of links con­firms that the effect is real & large: TODO.

While using HN, as a sort of ‘pub­lic ser­vice’, I occa­sion­ally made sure to visit the newest sub­mis­sions page rather than just the main front page most peo­ple read. After a while, I noticed that the links I upvoted there seemed to be turn­ing up a lot on the front page, more than I would expect from my usual pat­tern of upvot­ing per­haps 5 links out of the 30 avail­able. A hor­ri­ble sus­pi­cion struck me: could the appar­ent arbi­trari­ness of what links made the front page be caused by the /newest page being so sparsely voted upon that a sin­gle upvote made a mean­ing­ful dif­fer­ence?

Methodology

I decided to do a ran­dom­ized par­al­lel groups exper­i­ment to test: On /newest, take the first 5 links (#1-5, to max­i­mize impact), do a sim­ple 50-50 ran­dom­iza­tion on each to decide whether to upvote or ignore (I have a shell func­tion for ran­dom­iza­tion: echo "$((RANDOM % 2 < 1))"); and make no votes on any other /newest items (I allowed myself my usual brows­ing & upvot­ing on the main page while I was there). As I have ‘nop­ro­cast’ turned on for 180 min­utes, each group of 5 links should have been sep­a­rated by a min­i­mum of 3 hours (more than enough time for all links to fall off /newest). This was typ­i­cally done dur­ing HN’s busiest hours: 11AM-midnight EST. I was not blinded dur­ing the exper­i­ment, but the writeup & list were never pub­lic while the exper­i­ment was run­ning. I used my exist­ing high­-karma (>7k) account since there does­n’t seem to be any weight­ing of upvotes, read­ing through “Inside the news.yc rank­ing for­mula”, “How Hacker News rank­ing algo­rithm works” & dis­cus­sion.

A power cal­cu­la­tion for sam­ple size is hard to do: I don’t have a Pois­son power func­tion handy, and I don’t expect the data to fit a Pois­son too well due to the stark con­trast between the fron­t-­page and /newest. (And I do want a well-pow­ered exper­i­ment - the only thing more waste­ful than an over­pow­ered exper­i­ment is an under­pow­ered weak exper­i­men­t.) How­ev­er, I do expect the nec­es­sary sam­ple to be quite large by the stan­dards of con­tin­u­ous nor­mal­ly-dis­trib­uted data. Most sub­mis­sions to /newest fail to gain more than an upvote or two, which means that most of the sam­ple con­tains lit­tle infor­ma­tion about whether the extra upvote helped them reach the fron­t-­page or not. Fur­ther, I don’t just want to esti­mate whether the net effect of upvot­ing is >1, I would like a rea­son­ably pre­cise esti­mate of what the effect is: know­ing that it’s, say, +2-10, is not very sat­is­fac­to­ry. (“The oncom­ing car is some­where between 10 meters and a kilo­me­ter away.”) All in all, I don’t expect the nec­es­sary n to be <200. I decided to stop at n = 300.

The exper­i­ment ran from 2014-03-16–2014-03-31. On 22 April, after doing my planned analy­sis, the results turned out to be as expected but weaker than I’d pre­fer (turned out a lot of the sam­ple is just a waste as they are stuck at +1/2) and so I resumed ran­dom­iza­tion to get another 100 links or so. I stopped the addi­tional ran­dom­iza­tion on 6 May.

Analysis plan

The analy­sis strat­egy is:

  1. a non-­para­met­ric test of dif­fer­ence in mean scores
  2. dichotomize the items by <10 as a proxy for hav­ing made it to the fron­t-­page for a mean­ing­ful amount of time, for a to esti­mate increase in fron­t-­page odds
  3. attempt a Pois­son regres­sion on scores, to extract an esti­mate of the dif­fer­ence in means
  4. some­thing fancier, sug­gested by the data (such as a of Pois­sons, per­haps, to split between fron­t-­page and non-fron­t-­page)

TODO: extract page views & time on page from my old Ana­lyt­ics, let­ting me cal­cu­late ‘how much time am I steer­ing with, say, 10 upvotes on /newest?’

Data

upvot­ed: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7410094 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7410068 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7410065 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7410052 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7411076 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7411073 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7412318 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7416907 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7416897 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7416891 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7418265 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7418223 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7419205 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7419194 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7419188 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7419183 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7422967 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7422954 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7422948 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7426089 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7426084 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7426073 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7426670 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7429611 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7430953 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7432226 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7432225 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7433186 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7433144 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7436121 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7436113 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7436110 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7436091 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7437717 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7439392 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7439390 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7443074 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7443051 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7444167 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7445317 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7445314 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7446530 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7446524 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7450534 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7450531 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7450528 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7450527 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7450519 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7451229 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7451212 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7451762 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7453752 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7453738 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7455416 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7456099 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7456090 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7456069 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7459234 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7459220 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7459217 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7459214 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7460853 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7460844 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7462246 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7462233 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7462356 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7462345 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7462326 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7463289 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7463259 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7463235 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7466412 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7466409 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7466404 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7467802 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7467788 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7470701 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7470633 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7470619 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7473787 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7473770 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7473759 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7475102 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7475098 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7476652 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7476649 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7476644 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7476640 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7477631 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7477630 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7477629 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7477600 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7478328 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7478333 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7481022 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7481021 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7481012 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7481011 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7482433 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7482392 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7482391 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7483717 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7483718 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7484560 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7484554 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7484541 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7484539 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7484522 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7485210 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7487677 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7488960 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7490310 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7490307 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7490306 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7490287 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7491047 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7491031 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7491030 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7492283 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7492281 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7492276 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7492264 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7492964 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7492939 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7492938 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7493774 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7493736 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7493730 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7496906 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7497795 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7498485 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7498474 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7499221 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7499218 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7499183 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7501511 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7501500 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7502814 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7502802 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7502801 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7628002 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7629426 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7630675 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7630660 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7630657 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7631449 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7631445 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7634123 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7634120 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7634099 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7635489 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7635479 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7636681 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7637667 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7638285 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7638261 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7638240 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7640751 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7640742 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7640734 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7641897 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7641895 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7643084 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7643078 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7644238 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7644232 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7644203 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7644199 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7646719 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7646709 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7646694 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7646691 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7647963 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7647958 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7647954 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7648978 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7649855 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7649823 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7649815 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7649810 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7650256 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7650232 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7650229 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7651604 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7651592 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7651579 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7651563 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7652270 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7652260 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7652254 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7652800 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7652798 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7652777 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7652764 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7652761 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7653301 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7653297 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7653273 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7653267 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7653745 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7653723 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7655287 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7655281 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7655278 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7656019 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7656003 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7656858 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7656806 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7656778 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7657521 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7657518 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7657515 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7657497 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7658020 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7660808 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7660796 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7662240 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7662217 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7663572 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7663567 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7663540 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7663539 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7664488 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7664475 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7664460 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7667576 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7667540 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7669036 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7669035 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7669027 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7669025 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7670043 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7670035 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7670101 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7670969 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7673841 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7673831 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7673809 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7675258 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7676629 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7676615 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7681583 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7681581 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7681566 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7682763 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7682760 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7682751 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7683584 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7683556 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7683555 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7687323 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7687316 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7687307 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7688997 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7688986 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7688985 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7691192 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7692029 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7692010 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7692040 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7694347 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7694346 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7694332 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7694319 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7695847 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7696461 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7696459 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7696458 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7696844 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7696843 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7698827 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7698826 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7700220 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7701855 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7701835 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7702514 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7702509 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7702505 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7702500 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7704503 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7704485 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7705794 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7705789 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7706898

ignored: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7410071 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7411079 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7411066 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7411060 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7412315 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7412294 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7412252 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7412241 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7416935 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7416922 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7418230 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7418225 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7418222 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7419192 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7422960 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7422959 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7424951 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7424928 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7424923 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7424910 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7424896 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7426094 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7426074 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7426699 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7426643 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7426640 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7429618 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7429616 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7429609 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7429604 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7430954 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7430949 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7430946 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7430939 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7432227 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7432222 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7432217 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7433188 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7433184 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7433160 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7433144 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7436103 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7437748 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7437745 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https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7629406 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7630669 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7630653 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7631468 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7631447 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7631441 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7634108 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7634104 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7635476 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7635475 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7635470 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7636703 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7636700 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7636687 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7636678 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7637697 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7637690 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7637689 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7637673 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7637667 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7638293 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7638283 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https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7652259 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7653273 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7653808 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7653787 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7653766 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7655279 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7655266 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7656043 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7656017 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7655970 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7656846 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7656800 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7657502 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7658033 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7658030 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7658029 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7658026 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7660785 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7660768 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7660755 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7662237 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7662225 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7662221 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7663552 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7664490 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7664470 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7667554 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7667541 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7667523 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7669037 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7670095 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7670045 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7670973 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7670957 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7670947 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7670939 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7673837 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7673805 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7675264 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7675253 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7675250 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7675243 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7676629 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7676618 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7676609 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7677459 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7677457 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7677456 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7677454 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7677453 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7680140 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7680136 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7680123 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7680118 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7680115 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7681573 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7681572 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7682754 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7682752 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7683569 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7683527 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7686007 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7686001 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7686000 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7685989 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7685986 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7687318 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7687313 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7689018 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7689003 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7691261 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7691241 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7691205 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7691196 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7692038 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7691998 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7694351 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7695912 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7695875 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7695870 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7695851 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7696467 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7696463 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7696841 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7696830 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7696827 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7698818 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7698816 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7698798 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7700216 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7700201 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7700200 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7700193 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7701837 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7701821 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7701800 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7702515 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7704515 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7704500 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7704473 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7705803 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7705798 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7705782 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7706885 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7706883 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7706882 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7706870

The 2 groups are not exactly bal­anced due to the sim­ple ran­dom­iza­tion. One URL suf­fered a typo and I could not fig­ure out what the orig­i­nal was, so for one block I ran­dom­ized an extra link (a #6). The n should be divis­i­ble by 5, but is off by TODO 1; I think I must have failed to copy­-­paste one link at some point.

for URL in `xclip -o`; do elinks -dump $URL | egrep ' points* by '; sleep 2s; done

Analysis

basic analy­sis:

upvoted <- c(3,27,2,19,60,2,69,2,14,6,72,9,2,2,2,57,2,3,31,2,2,32,2,3,2,2,33,2,8,2,2,2,8,4,2,2,8,4,55,2,10,7,327,35,58,70,6,14,3,2,2,79,3,2,100,2,5,4,7,72,2,2,158,2,3,2,73,59,54,2,76,7,141,2,424,11,2,6,2,3,3,3,2,2,2,2,3,126,3,2,2,3,2,3,2,7,4,2,6,2,2,42,2,2,2,3,2,5,77,2,5,5,13,85,19,2,2,2,6,6,2,2,30,72,2,2,6,2,2,4,17,2) - 1
ignored <- c(1,1,1,2,1,2,2,1,1,2,1,2,5,154,1,1,8,2,1,2,1,2,1,1,7,1,1,1,2,329,5,1,1,94,2,1,1,2,1,3,1,1,3,132,1,2,1,2,1,2,2,1,3,2,1,3,1,3,2,5,3,14,62,3,1,1,2,12,112,1,1,2,6,3,2,1,1,1,1,14,1,1,1,2,1,39,4,3,1,1,1,1,9,3,1,1,84,1,5,4,5,1,1,4,270,1,1,1,1,1,5,1,1,1,1,1,3,1,30,5,244,1,1,45,7,4,1,5,1,1,2,1,2,4,1,1,11,61,1,1,1,82,1,2,8,68,7,2,4,89,5,62,25,2,2,2,1,124,179,1,2)
wilcox.test(upvoted, ignored)
# ...W = 11758, p-value = 0.09914
hn <- data.frame(Scores = c(upvoted, ignored), FrontPage = c(upvoted>10, ignored>10), Upvoted = c(rep(TRUE, length(upvoted)), rep(FALSE, length(ignored))))
library(ggplot2)
qplot(1:length(Scores), sort(Scores), color= hn[order(hn$Scores, decreasing=FALSE),]$Upvoted, data=hn)
library(plotrix)
histStack(hn$Scores, hn$Upvoted, breaks=25)

g1 <- glm(FrontPage ~ Upvoted, family="binomial", data = hn); summary(g1)
# ...Coefficients:
#             Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
# (Intercept)   -1.742      0.221   -7.87  3.5e-15
# UpvotedTRUE    0.723      0.296    2.44    0.015
exp(coef(g1))
# (Intercept) UpvotedTRUE
#      0.1752      2.0597
exp(confint(g1))
#              2.5 % 97.5 %
# (Intercept) 0.1108 0.2649
# UpvotedTRUE 1.1579 3.7167
Reduce(`*`, exp(coef(g1)), 1)
# [1] 0.3608

## a single upvote on /newest is currently estimated as increasing the odds of making the front page by 2.25x (from 16% to 36%)
## or to put it another way, from a mean score of +16 to a mean score of +22
g2 <- glm(Scores ~ Upvoted, family="poisson", data = hn); summary(g2)
# ...Coefficients:
#             Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
# (Intercept)   2.7907     0.0195   142.9   <2e-16
# UpvotedTRUE   0.2914     0.0270    10.8   <2e-16
exp(coef(g2))
# (Intercept) UpvotedTRUE
#      16.292       1.338
exp(Reduce(`+`, coef(g2), 0))
# [1] 21.28
library(flexmix)
fit4 <- (stepFlexmix(Scores ~ Upvoted, data=hn, model = FLXMRglmfix(family = "poisson"), k=4, nrep=20))
# summary(fit4)
#         prior size post>0 ratio
# Comp.1 0.0643   19     28 0.679
# Comp.2 0.4506  133    140 0.950
# Comp.3 0.1126   32     90 0.356
# Comp.4 0.3725  109    114 0.956
#
# 'log Lik.' -1154 (df=11)
# AIC: 2330   BIC: 2371
summary(refit(fit4))
# $Comp.1
#             Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
# (Intercept)    2.485      0.120    20.7   <2e-16
# UpvotedTRUE    1.892      0.123    15.4   <2e-16
#
# $Comp.2
#             Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
# (Intercept)   0.6002     0.0734    8.18  2.9e-16
# UpvotedTRUE   5.3254     0.0820   64.95  < 2e-16
#
# $Comp.3
#             Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
# (Intercept)   4.3955     0.0309   142.4   <2e-16
# UpvotedTRUE  -3.5918     0.0794   -45.3   <2e-16
#
# $Comp.4
#             Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
# (Intercept)   5.4605     0.0292   187.1   <2e-16
# UpvotedTRUE  -2.3164     0.0712   -32.5   <2e-16

exp(0.6002); exp(2.485); exp(4.3955); exp(5.4605)
# [1] 1.822
# [1] 12
# [1] 81.09
# [1] 235.2

Note that the sub­mis­sions were cho­sen to max­i­mize the impact of an upvote by upvot­ing the first 5 links on /newest and hence the most recently sub­mit­ted: a sub­mis­sion at the very bot­tom, like #30, will ben­e­fit least from an upvote since its time is up and it’s almost van­ished. If the effect on the first 5 is TODO, and the effect on the last link (#30) is 0, then a rea­son­able guess at the mean effect over all links is sim­ply TODO/2.

Reddit comparison

One might won­der if HN is uniquely aber­rant in this lot­tery; the most nat­ural com­par­i­son is the social news site Red­dit. I picked /r/prog (a very large sub­red­dit com­pa­ra­ble to HN in size) and manip­u­lated their /new/ the same way

Data

upvot­ed: https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20nypu/get_certified_and_become_a_real_licensed_software/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20nvtk/writing_the_perfect_question_by_jon_skeet/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20ns9t/wit_natural_language_for_the_internet_of_things/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20nowy/lazyrouter_translates_requests_into_method_calls/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20ofgx/hiring_front_and_back_end_dev_in_southern/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20ofbs/the_chinese_wikipedia_article_on_quicksort_has/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20o6vp/refreshing_part_of_a_page_using_jquery_load_and/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20o32o/i_have_been_in_my_current_job_for_a_while_and_i/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20q8zs/mozilla_and_unity_bring_unity_game_engine_to_webgl/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20q4la/native_interconnect_the_isthmus_in_the_jvm/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20qjp4/my_experience_with_mob_programming/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20qjeg/on_replacing_objective_c/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20r1ht/illconsidered_choices_coffee_and_its_effects_on/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20qukz/an_interesting_erlang_alternative_to_ruby_on_rails/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20qssi/how_to_nuget_jquery_1_the_right_way/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20rmuc/why_not_automate_your_development_environment_too/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20rl34/design_patterns_cheat_sheet/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20rbem/typesafe_go_reactive_with_java_8/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20r5n0/samsung_releases_sdk_for_wristwatch_apps/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20thjg/john_boyd_and_the_origins_of_agility/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20tghe/announcing_the_oculus_rift_development_kit_2_dk2/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20t58p/ubuntu_1404_now_runs_well_on_the_2013_macbook_air/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20tzve/a_dead_simple_terminal_version_of_2048_with_a/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20tvl3/views_in_java_collections_framework/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20tufm/there_is_no_single_mental_model_for_programming/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20ttvw/accelerated_development_not_planning_is_for_losers/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20trth/creating_a_better_nrpe_agent/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20ua1t/the_history_of_computing_lectures/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20u9gx/kirks_quest_online_coding_contest_the_future_of/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20u7sc/flash_is_dead_long_live_openfl/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20ulsv/refactoring_taming_the_bunnies/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20uezj/open_by_default_releasing_my_campaign_platform_a/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20ud73/not_sure_if_correct_subbreddit_but_heres_a_very/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20u1um/software_laws_2014_pdf/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20v0fq/the_inverted_software_datablock_quick_start/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20wqob/lessons_from_a_silicon_valley_job_search_robert/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20wnxf/you_cant_buy_agile/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20wk67/the_four_deadly_sins_of_linq_data_access_part/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20x6kc/dispelling_the_myth_of_the_floatingpoint_pdf/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20x4rs/changes_in_the_microsoft_mvp_program_mvps_for/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20x4eo/reset_element_css_to_blank_state/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20x1lr/poppy_an_opensource_software_hardware_humanoid/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20xk8y/microsoft_detailed_directx_12_promising_a/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20xhr9/discussion_about_programming_languages_with_the/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20xfqn/appmethod_builds_apps_for_android_ios_windows_and/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20y1vv/handling_nodejs_dependencies_at_box/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20xzc8/hey_freelancers_of_rprogramming_help_fill_out_a/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/210540/a_software_engineers_life_in_developing_country/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21047p/efficient_dsp_filters_with_template_haskell/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/210nru/get_all_the_things_or_how_not_to_write_a_web_api/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/210lyk/the_road_coders_survival_kit/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/211fum/a_small_project_i_made_for_implementing_sliders/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/2119ag/perl_encryption_primer_block_ciphers/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/2131cg/larry_page_id_rather_leave_my_billions_to_elon/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/212pkq/mario_ai_using_multiple_random_reinforcement/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/212lm8/npm_newly_paranoid_maintainers/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/213do3/on_my_birthday_last_year_i_made_an_app_to/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/213c7p/bit_gathering_and_base2tobase3_conversion_for/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/212l84/programming_on_the_toilet/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/215jmx/recursive_queries_in_postgresql/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/215dvi/exploring_computergenerated_poetry_and_trying_to/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/218z27/michael_feathers_ripeness_for_refactoring/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/218yff/popcorn_time_goodbye/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/219pvt/goodbye_firefox_marketplace_on_brendan_eich/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/219lnd/this_week_in_rust/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/219jg6/using_q_and_jquery_promises_to_compose_complex/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21bud5/now_anyone_in_the_world_can_learn_web_development/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21btl8/clojure_16_released/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21brwc/easy_money_code_html5_forms_and_sell_them_here/ 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https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21fiz1/how_to_build_a_simple_voting_app_like_hacker_news/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21fhy7/ian_cooper_tdd_where_did_it_all_go_wrong/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21g31f/tip_seamless_restarts_with_unicorn_and_upstart/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21fz4o/google_io_2014/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21gnmn/text_mode_2048_game_in_c_for_your_linux_console/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21gim9/coding_interview_practice/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21gq5o/quick_start_test_driven_development_channel_9/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21g3iq/a_beginners_guide_to_contributing_to_open_source/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21icfm/facebook_with_help_from_google_linkedin_twitter/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21iav6/c_status/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21i7gd/ccv_06_open_sources_near_stateoftheart_image/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21i19h/a_generic_cc_makefile/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21ixzp/bram_cohens_patience_diff_a_brief_summary/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21iwup/programming_laws_and_reality_do_we_know_what_we/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21jron/switching_web_programming_paradigms_with_vertx/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21jpf5/show_reddit_my_own_little_reddit_clone_in_c_and/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21iza1/spatial_data_structures_for_better_map/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21l81x/perl_encryption_primer_hashes/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21l2ya/udi_dahan_looselycoupled_orchestration_with/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21lx00/cube_drone_consistent_hashing/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21lxd9/what_does_writing_directly_to_video_memory_really/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21n1zs/why_enterprise_java_beans/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21mx0b/marching_squares_for_procedural_tile_placement/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21mvuv/should_everybody_learn_to_code_computerphile/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21o6xt/the_software_equality_logo/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21o6bz/codeplay_introduction_to_sycl_abstraction_layer/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21o6bb/bannalia_trivial_notes_on_themes_diverse/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21o4et/artificial_intelligence_where_to_put_your_time/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21od4e/participate_in_10_hours_development_of_a_game/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21o21d/introduction_to_artificial_neural_networks_part_2/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21nxpv/working_without_fear_on_test_driven_code/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21ow20/introducing_rwolfram_a_subreddit_dedicated_to_the/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21ooex/wic_file_open_dialog_using_ifileopendialog/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21nwak/html5_and_javascript_game_engine_libraries/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21quwy/tools_for_building_a_better_software_development/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21rn0p/bringing_simd_to_javascript/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21rfyf/class_hierarchies_dont_do_that/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21r3tc/lawsuit_waze_owes_opensource_programmers_150/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21qvp8/write_your_own_ai_for_2048/ https://old.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21s7tn/the_strangeness_of_scale_at_twitter/ 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No logis­tic regres­sion; I’m not sure what the equiv­a­lent of ‘front page’ is for Red­dit.

http://www.randalolson.com/2015/01/11/over-half-of-all-reddit-posts-go-completely-ignored/