Hacker News submission analysis

Describing HN submissions; estimating manipulability
topics: statistics, shell, R
created: 25 Sep 2013; modified: 1 Dec 2015; status: notes; confidence: likely; importance: 2


Related:

  • http://nathanael.hevenet.com/the-best-time-to-post-on-hacker-news-a-comprehensive-answer/
  • http://minimaxir.com/2014/02/hacking-hacker-news/
  • http://minimaxir.com/2014/10/hn-comments-about-comments/
  • http://karpathy.ca/myblog/2013/11/27/quantifying-hacker-news-with-50-days-of-data/ https://cs.stanford.edu/people/karpathy/hn_analysis.html
  • http://metamarkets.com/2011/hacking-hacker-news-headlines/
  • http://danluu.com/randomize-hn/
  • http://www.bayesianwitch.com/blog/2013/why_hn_shouldnt_use_randomized_algorithms.html
  • http://camdp.com/blogs/multi-armed-bandits
  • http://gkosev.blogspot.com/2012/08/fixing-hacker-news-mathematical-approach.html
  • http://blog.rjmetrics.com/2012/10/17/surprising-hacker-news-data-analysis/
  • http://blog.rjmetrics.com/2012/10/24/how-to-get-on-the-front-page-of-hacker-news/
  • http://blog.datadive.net/which-topics-get-the-upvote-on-hacker-news/
  • https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8790134
  • https://porter.io/blog/hackernews-cheaters-catch-me-if-you-can/ https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9332889
  • http://www.righto.com/2013/11/how-hacker-news-ranking-really-works.html
  • https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9336759 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9333611
  • http://www.almostinfinite.com/other/hacker-news-new-page-scroll-of-death.html?
  • https://intoli.com/blog/hacker-news-title-tool/
  • http://cs229.stanford.edu/proj2016/report/GengYuanWang-PredictingPopularityOfPostsOnHackerNews-report.pdf
  • http://varianceexplained.org/r/hn-trends/

Page view counts:

  • 11.8k https://web.archive.org/web/20130719064119/http://aberrant.me/front-page-of-hacker-news/
  • 15k http://www.mikedellanoce.com/2012/09/my-first-hacker-news-effect-experience.html
  • 30k, 12k http://shkspr.mobi/blog/2012/11/whats-the-front-page-of-hackernews-worth/
  • 8.5k http://tumbling.alastair.is/post/17661390124/fun-with-analytics-pitting-hacker-news-and
  • 15k http://najafali.com/zero-to-fifteen-thousand-in-twenty-four-hours.html
  • 15.2k http://www.matvoz.com/blog/2013/10/interesting-facts-about-when-you-get-hit-by-hacker-news-tsunami/
  • 7k unique visitors http://greig.cc/journal/2013/1/what-does-a-hacker-news-traffic-spike-look-like
  • 10k unique visitors https://whoapi.com/blog/554/how-hacker-news-hit-us-with-10-000-unique-visitors-in-10-hours/
  • 40k unique visitors https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7427542 “in one 24 hour period, 35,000 visits and 32,000 uniques”

  • https://medium.com/p/81bd75a39425
  • https://baremetrics.io/blog/hacker-news-1500-recurring-revenue
  • 100 views, +4 https://en.avion.io/blog/?escaped_fragment=/post/the-story-of-our-hackernews-submission#!/post/the-story-of-our-hackernews-submission
  • 5k pageviews, 3.6k, +42 uniques http://blog.remoteworknewsletter.com/2014/10/15/how-to-valdiate-an-idea-on-hacker-news/
  • 41.3k http://ptotrading.blogspot.com/2014/11/a-message-to-all-non-daytraders-and.html
  • 15,223 sessions https://blog.wearewizards.io/the-hacker-news-effect-examined
  • +315, 17,000 sessionshttps://hackernewslater.com/posts/post-launch-front-page-hn/

Submissions

Question: is submitting to HN worthwhile?

Simple experiment: submit each day one link to gwern.net + 2 links to other domains. These serve as both a rough control for that day’s difficulty of front page, any benefits or penalties applied to my account, and repayment to HN for the potential spamming.

per nathanael’s post, I tried to consistently post around 10AM EST (I don’t get up early enough to do 7-8AM EST). Apparently he’s wrong? Oh well.

https://news.ycombinator.com/submitted?id=gwern extract stats from http://hn.algolia.com/#!/story/sort_by_date/prefix/0/author%3Agwern ? API: https://hn.algolia.com/api https://github.com/HackerNews/API

Sep 2013, started with: ‘“Equoid” (Charles Stross meets My Little Pony)’ (http://www.tor.com/stories/2013/09/equoid) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6445266 5 points by gwern 6 months ago; 0 comments

multi-level Poisson model? Group by Domain and cross group by Day. mixture model? seems appropriate for two different groups (those who make front page and those who don’t)

can’t filter GA by ycombinator.com: https breaks referrers

HN API:

wget ‘http://hn.algolia.com/api/v1/search_by_date?tags=story,author_gwern&hitsPerPage=1000’

How to get all my comments? This doesn’t work:

wget ‘http://hn.algolia.com/api/v1/search?tags=author_gwern,(comment)&hitsPerPage=999&page=2’ http://hn.algolia.com/api/v1/search?tags=author_gwern,(comment)&hitsPerPage=1000

{“hits”:[],“page”:2,“nbHits”:0,“nbPages”:0,“hitsPerPage”:999,“processingTimeMS”:1,“message”:“you can only fetch the 1000 hits for this query, contact us to increase the limit”,“query”:"“,”params“:”advancedSyntax=true