This is the May edition of the gwern.net newsletter; the previous was March.
This is a summarized version of the revision-history RSS feed, overlapping with Changelog & including material from Google+ & LW media threads.
Writings
- Treadmill/spaced repetition experiment
- short interview with Mike Powers on current black-markets
Media
Books
Fiction:
- The Quantum Thief, Hannu (Accelerando meets Lupin; uncompromising SF, stuffed full of interesting tidbits - the game-theoretic prison at the beginning is only the beginning; self-recommending)
- Catch-22, Heller (I reread it out of curiosity to see how it’d hold up after all these years. I still enjoyed it.)
Nonfiction:
- Wages of Destruction, Tooze 2006 (review)
- Game Programming Patterns (review)
- Letters from a Stoic (Campbell’s translation of Seneca letters; some excerpts)
Film/TV
Movies:
- I enjoyed this a great deal. The special effects hold up well, I liked the suspense & paranoia especially since I had no idea how the plot goes and really was unsure who would be assimilated, and the characters don’t act too stupidly for most of the movie.
- Dr. Strangelove
- Her
Nebraska 2013 (??? My relatives say this is a good depiction of the more Scandinavian parts of the Midwest but it left me deeply nonplussed)
Anime:
- Summer in Andalusia (Ghibli-esque movie about a professional cycling race in Spain; better than it sounds)
- Ghost Hound (attempt at psychological/supernatural horror that ultimately falls short of building up to anything interesting)
- Un-go (lame mysteries in the worst Sherlock tradition, offputting fan-service, not one but two major deus ex machinas; stick to something like Umineko)
Links
Technology:
- “Exponential and non-exponential trends in information technology” (LW)
- “The Three Projections of Dr Futamura” (isomorphisms between compilers/interpreters/etc)
- Framing Brian Krebs with heroin
- “It’s the Latency, Stupid”
- Medieval computer science: “STOC 1500”
- “A World Without Randomness”
- “Life Inside Brewster’s Magnificent Contraption” (Jason Scott on the Internet Archive)
- “Mundane Magic”
- Sand as a form of power storage
Statistics:
- “Search for the Wreckage of Air France Flight AF 447”, Stone et al 2014 (technical report)
- “What do null fields tell use about scientific fraud?”
- “A whole fleet of gremlins: Looking more carefully at Richard Tol’s twice-corrected paper, ‘The Economic Effects of Climate Change’”
- “Theory-testing in psychology and physics: a methodological paradox”, Meehl 1967 (excerpts)
- “What Bayesianism Taught Me”
- “The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making”
- “Big Data needs Big Model” (converting non-random Xbox-based polling into accurate election forecasts by modeling the non-randomness & adjusting for it)
- What are statistical models?
- “Non-industry-Sponsored Preclinical Studies on Statins Yield Greater Efficacy Estimates Than Industry-Sponsored Studies: A Meta-Analysis”, Krauth et al 2014 (Typically when you look at study results with an industry funding variable, you find that industry studies are biased upwards - this is the sort of study that comes up in books like Bad Pharma - but here we seem to see the opposite: it’s the non-industry, academic/nonprofit/government, funding which seems to be biased towards finding effects. Interestingly, this is for studies early in the drug pipeline, while IIRC the usual studies examine drugs later in the approval pipeline and which have reached human clinical trials. This immediately suggests an economic rationale: early in the process, drug companies have incentives to reach true results in order to avoid investing much in drugs which won’t ultimately work; but later in the process, because they’ve managed to get a drug close to approval, they have incentives to cook the books in order to try to force approval regardless. So for preliminary results, you would want to distrust academic work and trust industry findings, but then at some point flip your assessments and start assuming the opposite. Makes me wonder what the midpoint is where neither group is more untrustworthy?)
- How to Measure Anything review
Science:
- “Predictive brains, situated agents, and the future of cognitive science”, Clark 2013
- “Detection of Near-Earth Asteroids”
- “Cosmic Horror: In which we confront the terrible racism of H. P. Lovecraft”
- “How Athletes Get Great: Just train for 10,000 hours, right? Not quite. In his new book, author David Epstein argues that top-shelf athletic performance may be a more complicated formula than we’ve recently come to believe.”
Medicine:
- “Do We Really Know What Makes Us Healthy?” (Gary Taubes, 2007)
- “The End of Food: Has a tech entrepreneur come up with a product to replace our meals?” (Soylent)
- Low-dose aspirin for mortality reduction revisited
- Creatine self-experiment
Economics:
- “SSC Gives A Graduation Speech” (on the value of college and alternatives)
- “What You Should Know About Megaprojects and Why: An Overview”, Flyvbjerg 2014 (excerpts)
- “Why Do Firms Buy Ads?” (advertising requires impossibly large sample sizes for meaningful results)
- “The Business Habits of Highly Effective Terrorists: Why Terror Masterminds Rely on Micro-Management”
- Inferring nuclear bomb components from stock market returns
- The Sewing Machine Patent Wars
Politics:
- “Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War”, Jones & Olken 2007 (excerpts)
- “The Borgias vs Borgia: Faith and Fear (accuracy in historical fiction)”
- “800 Years Of Human Sacrifice In Kent”
- “King of Fearmongers: Morris Dees and the Southern Poverty Law Center, scaring donors since 1971”
- “BUGGER: maybe the real state secret is that spies aren’t very good at their jobs”
- “Beyond the One Percent: Categorizing Extreme Elites”
- “free speech rights and ability”
- “Exploring Elitist Democracy: The Latest from Gilens and Page”
Psychology:
- “Common DNA Markers Can Account for More Than Half of the Genetic Influence on Cognitive Abilities”
- Many Labs project published
- “Slow Ideas: Some innovations spread fast. How do you speed the ones that don’t?”
- “New meta-analysis checks the correlation between intelligence and faith: First systematic analysis of its kind even proposes reasons for the negative correlation”
- Biases in grocery shopping
Philosophy:
Literature:
- “Sand Kings”, GRRM
- “The Island”, Peter Watts
- “Calmly We Walk through This April’s Day”, Delmore Schwartz
- “Fermat’s Last Stand: Soundtrack and Adventure Log”
- Parable of the Unjust Steward
Music
Doujin:
- “それでもグランドマザーは” (ds_8; bacon8tion {2011}) [instrumental]
Touhou:
- “孤独なウェアウルフ” (TAM; 純白の東方子守唄 {R11}) [classical]
- “春色小径 ~ Colorful Path” (TAM; 純白の東方子守唄 {R11}) [classical]
- “月時計 ~ ルナ.ダイアル -十六夜” (TAM; 純白の東方子守唄 {R11}) [classical]
- “幽雅に咲かせ、墨染の桜 alt. ver.” (埼玉最終兵器; Rain Drop {R11}) [instrumental metal]
- “恋心ひとつ” (ハム; TOHO BOSSA NOVA 3 {R11}) [bossa nova]
- “Telepathy, Telepathy” (雨宿 どみ乃; デジウィ LEGEND {R11}) [Jpop]
- “Eternal Verities” (ayame; POP | CULTURE {C84}) [Jpop]
Vocaloid:
- “bpm (club rework)” (Miku; KTG; CueB Legacy Collection {VM21}) [club]
- “クラブ流星群 (Extend mix)” (Miku; 味噌汁P CueB Legacy Collection {VM21}) [club]
- “Just hanging around” (Gumi; ベーコンP; bacon8tion {2011}) [Jpop]
- “Just carry on my way” (Gumi; ベーコンP; bacon8tion {2011}) [Jpop]
- “いつか” (Rin; カラスヤサボウ; goodnight, wonderend {2014}) [Jpop]