_Methods of Rationality_ predictions

Recording fan speculation for retrospectives (transhumanism, predictions)
created: 25 Mar 2012; modified: 17 Sep 2017; status: in progress; confidence: likely; importance: 1

Sources for predictions: PredictionBook.com, LessWrong, & TvTropes. For background on making predictions, see Prediction markets.

Publication

Awards

Hugo:

Completion

Out of universe:

In universe, complete during Harry’s:

Reviews:

2012

Eliezer will publish:

ch 78

Chapter 78 will be published by February 2012

Plot

Chapters

ch 21

The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to:

ch 45

The hint is about…

ch 81

Harry’s solution will be…

ch 85

by ch85:

ch 89

ch 90

Magic

and will be used - one cannot lie in Parseltongue

Objects

Azkaban Island is the last remnant of Atlantis

The purpose of the golden wibblers device in Dumbledore’s office will be revealed before 2017

Horcruxes

Stone

The Philosopher’s Stone…

Hallows

Deathly Hallows:

Diary

Bacon’s diary is

Map

The constant glitch in the Marauder’s Map is

The intermittent glitch in the Marauder’s Map is

Creatures

Dementors

There will be at least one character whose Animagus form is another human

Events

The Peverell tombstone motto will be alluded to

Past

The original Quirrel was Voldemort’s master or teacher.

Lily Potter did not give Petunia a magic potion, but actually Imperius’ed her.

Lucius Malfoy was, at least initially, Imperiused into becoming a Death Eater

Prophecy & Attack

Voldemort:

The Prophecy actually referred to Neville Longbottom and not Harry

The Prophecy is about Harry opposing Death, not Voldemort

Dumbledore deliberately arranged for Voldemort to learn of the Prophecy

The Prophecy as transmitted to Voldemort was faked, modified, altered, or incomplete

The phrase the very stars in heaven in the prophecy refers to the Black family

Rita Skeeter hoaxing

Who did it?

Hermione frame

was conducted by

Future

Characters

Dumbledore, Quirrel, Voldemort, Santa Claus, and Mr. Hat and Cloak are all the same person.

Romance

Harry romance:

Draco romance:

Harry

Harry is…

Harry’s disturbed sleep is a clue to some unrevealed secret (and not just a Time-turner excuse)

Future breakthroughs:

Harry will:

Harry will become an Animagus who turns into

Hermione

conditional on humans being transformable into house elves, will be so transformed before chapter 85

Quirrel

will:

is…

and plans to manipulate Harry (already a Horcrux) into making a Harry-Horcrux of Quirrel so neither can ever die

believes that Harry’s stone is the Resurrection Stone

zombie-mode is about spending time at the Pioneer probe perspective

(the original) killed his parents

Dumbledore

The rock he gave Harry is or contains a real:

Voldemort

All Voldemort’s horcruxes except the Pioneer probe will be destroyed, and Voldemort is doomed to wander the cosmos forever

Harry is a Horcrux and Voldemort knows this

Voldemort is Quirrel’s wand or is contained within it

Voldemort at some point was a disembodied spirit

The Malfoys

Draco

Lucius

Narcissa

is dead

Cloak & Hat

is…

has Obliviated Blaise Zabini’s mother

Peter Pettigrew

is dead

Bellatrix Black

Sirius Black

is not in Azkaban

Gilderoy Lockhart

will be…

Severus Snape

Sybil Trelawney

will prophesy the unspoken ch63 prophecy within earshot of Harry