The following is a roughly sectionized collection of notes, copied predictions, and links pertaining to my dataset of 2012 election predictions; this can be helpful in figuring out exactly where I sourced a particular number or simply how I screwed up something. ------------------------------------------ [Brier score](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score) is for probabilistic predictions about a *binary* outcome: eg. 75% Obama will win. But [RMSE](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Root-mean-square_deviation) is for continuous predictions about a *continuous* outcome: eg. he will win by an average of 3.1 electoral votes. These predictions are different but both useful for ranking predictors. So for Presidential predictions, I want 1. predicted probability Obama will win Brier score. He wins or loses. 2. predicted electoral share RMSE. The predicted quantity can differ from the true quantity. 3. predicted popular vote RMSE. For state shares, I want: 1. predicted probability Obama will take it. Brier score. 2. predicted margin of victory RMSE. For Senate races, same thing, I want: 1. predicted probability victor wins Brier score. 2. predicted % margin of victory RMSE. # R data design if I made each frame correspond to every prediction by a predictor, I'll have ~161 columns! 3 overall presidential variables, 50 state win estimates, 50 state margins, 30 state Senate win estimates, 30 state Senate margins better to make a set of 3 president variables, then a separate 50 state win %, a seprate 50 state margin, etc then if I want Nate's brier score, I can select $Nate.Silver from the first, second, and fourth frames if I want his RMSE, I select instead from the third and fifth objects # Selection Pundit & modeler roundup: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/11/05/pundit-accountability-the-official-2012-election-prediction-thread/ Graph of 4 predictors state shares: http://marginoferror.org/results.png Nate Silver Simon Jackman Drew Linzer DeSart Nate Silver http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/06/nov-5-late-poll-gains-for-obama-leave-romney-with-longer-odds/ President & state shares, Senate races Simon Jackman http://www.huffingtonpost.com/simon-jackman/pollster-predictive-perfo_b_2087862.html (self-calculated Brier score: 0.0091) President & state shares Drew Linzer http://votamatic.org/forecast-detail/ (RMSE 2.23 https://twitter.com/DrewLinzer/status/266241680305446912/photo/1 ) President & state shares Jay DeSart & Holbrook http://research.uvu.edu/DeSart/forecasting/november.html President & state shares Margin of Error http://marginoferror.org/blog/summary.table.Nov05.csv President & state shares Sam Wang & Andrew Ferguson http://election.princeton.edu/ (specifically http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/06/presidential-prediction-2012-final/ http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/06/senate-prediction-final-election-eve/ & http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/07/after-the-storm/ ) President & state shares, Senate races, House races Josh Putnam http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-electoral-college-map-11612.html President & state shares Unskewed Polls http://unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_03.cfm (admission of error: http://www.businessinsider.com/unskewed-pollster-dean-chambers-nate-silver-election-dick-morris-michael-barone-2012-11 http://unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_03.cfm contrast with Rasmussen's excuses: http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/11/07/scott_rasmussen_explains_why_his_polls_didn_t_forsee_an_obama_win.html ) President & state shares Intrade (Caveats: http://election.princeton.edu/2012/07/11/weaknesses-of-intrade-and-opportunities/ ) Presidential: http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/ states: http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/electoral-map/ / http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/key-races/states/ Senate: http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/key-races/senate/ # Nate Silver presidential probability: 90.9% electoral vote-share: 313 popular vote: 50.8% state chance of victory: Alabama: 0 Alaska: 0 Arizona: 2 Arkansas: 0 California: 100 Colorado: 80 Connecticut: 100 Delaware: 100 DC 100 Florida: 50 Georgia: 0 Hawaii: 100 Idaho: 0 Illinois: 100 Indiana: 0 Iowa: 84 Kansas: 0 Kentucky: 0 Louisiana: 0 Maine: 100 Maryland: 100 Massachusetts: 100 Michigan: 99 Minnesota: 100 Mississippi: 0 Missouri: 0 Montana: 2 Nebraska: 0 Nevada: 93 New 85 New 100 New 99 New 100 North 26 North 0 Ohio: 91 Oklahoma: 0 Oregon: 100 Pennsylvania: 99 Rhode 100 South 0 South 0 Tennessee: 0 Texas: 0 Utah: 0 Vermont: 100 Virginia: 79 Washington: 100 West 0 Wisconsin: 97 Wyoming: 0 state vote-share: Alabama: 36.7 Alaska: 38.7 Arizona: 46.2 Arkansas: 38.6 California: 58.1 Colorado: 50.8 Connecticut: 56.6 DC: 93.0 Delaware: 59.6 Florida: 49.8 Georgia: 45.5 Hawaii: 66.5 Idaho: 32.1 Illinois: 59.8 Indiana: 45.3 Iowa: 51.1 Kansas: 37.9 Kentucky: 40.3 Louisiana: 39.3 Maine: 55.9 Maryland: 60.9 Massachusetts: 59.0 Michigan: 53.0 Minnesota: 53.7 Mississippi: 39.4 Missouri: 45.6 Montana: 45.2 Nebraska: 40.4 Nevada: 51.8 New Hampshire: 51.4 New Jersey: 55.5 New Mexico: 54.1 New York: 62.4 North Carolina: 48.9 North Dakota: 42.0 Ohio: 51.3 Oklahoma: 33.8 Oregon: 53.6 Pennsylvania: 52.5 Rhode Island: 61.8 South Carolina: 43.2 South Dakota: 42.5 Tennessee: 41.4 Texas: 41.2 Utah: 27.8 Vermont: 66.2 Virginia: 50.7 Washington: 56.2 West Virginia: 41.3 Wisconsin: 52.4 Wyoming: 30.9 State win percentage for Senate: Arizona: 4 California: 100 Connecticut: 96 Delaware: 100 Florida: 100 Hawaii: 100 Indiana: 70 Maine: 93 Maryland: 100 Massachusetts: 94 Michigan: 100 Minnesota: 100 Mississippi: 0 Missouri: 98 Montana: 34 Nebraska: 1 99 Nevada: 17 New Jersey: 100 New Mexico: 97 New York: 100 North Dakota: 8 Ohio: 97 Pennsylvania: 99 Rhode Island: 100 Tennessee: 0 Texas: 0 Utah: 0 Vermont: 100 Virginia: 88 Washington: 100 West Virginia: 92 Wisconsin: 79 Wyoming: 0 State vote-share for Senate: Arizona: 46.6 California: 59.6 Connecticut: 52.6 Delaware: 66.5 Florida: 53.2 Hawaii: 56.6 Indiana: 50.0 Maine: 53.0 Maryland: 60.8 Massachusetts: 51.7 Michigan: 56.0 Minnesota: 63.7 Mississippi: 32.3 Missouri: 52.2 Montana: 48.4 Nebraska: 45.6 Nevada: 47.5 New Jersey: 56.1 New Mexico: 53.4 New York: 67.5 North Dakota: 47.2 Ohio: 51.9 Pennsylvania: 52.9 Rhode Island: 59.1 Tennessee: 35.5 Texas: 41.5 Utah: 32.4 Vermont: 63.8 Virginia: 51.0 Washington: 59.3 West Virginia: 56.0 Wisconsin: 51.1 Wyoming: 27.7 # Simon Jackman presidential probability: 91.4% http://www.huffingtonpost.com/simon-jackman/pollster-predictions_b_2081013.html electoral vote-share: 332 (median) popular vote: 50.8% for each state, margin of victory: sourced from https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ak59VfRjHcmAdEVxeE1PenJCRW1uYTg4LWN2WDI2Z3c#gid=0 Jackman Obama two-party vote share 38.7 NA 46.1 36.4 58.6 51.0 56.8 NA 91.6 50.1 45.5 65.0 32.0 59.6 44.8 51.4 NA 40.9 38.9 56.0 61.0 59.7 53.6 54.0 NA 45.3 46.0 42.8 51.9 51.3 56.0 54.4 62.7 49.2 43.0 51.9 34.5 53.1 53.1 62.8 44.8 44.9 44.0 40.8 26.9 68.8 51.0 56.5 41.5 52.5 NA 11/6/2012 15:00:00 Each state chance of victory: http://jackman.stanford.edu/Election2012/downloads/obamaProbForPenn.csv Alabama 0.52 Alaska NA Arizona 0.5 Arkansas 0 California 100 Colorado 76.52 Connecticut 100 Delaware NA DC 100 Florida 52.16 Georgia 0.14 Hawaii 100 Idaho 0 Illinois 100 Indiana 0 Iowa 83.76 Kansas NA Kentucky 4e-04 Louisiana 0 Maine 100 Maryland 100 Massachusetts 100 Michigan 99.88 Minnesota 99.92 Mississipi NA Missouri 4e-04 Montana 0.32 Nebraska 0 Nevada 91.2 New Hampshire 83.24 New Jersey 99.98 New Mexico 99.68 New York 100 North Carolina 28.12 North Dakota 0 Ohio 92.98 Oklahoma 0 Oregon 97.26 Pennsylvania 99.1 Rhode Island 100 South Carolina 12.9 South Dakota 0.68 Tennessee 4e-04 Texas 0 Utah 0 Vermont 100 Virginia 78.4 Washington 100 West Virginia 0.54 Wisconsin 96.98 Wyoming NA Jackman says NAs are 'gimmes' where one doesn't have to explicitly list them https://twitter.com/SimonJackman/status/266974833617825792 - taking him at face-value and replacing the NAs with 1/0 in my dataset. # Drew Linzer presidential probability: 99% (personal communication) electoral vote-share: 332 http://votamatic.org/election-day-forecast-obama-332-romney-206/ popular vote: N/A (personal communication) (Obama shares) Alabama 40.3 Alaska 37.5 Arizona 46.2 Arkansas 37.1 California 59.8 Colorado 51.2 Connecticut 56.8 DC NA Delaware 61 Florida 50.2 Georgia 46 Hawaii 65.6 Idaho 31.2 Illinois 60.2 Indiana 44.3 Iowa 51.6 Kansas 41.1 Kentucky 45.1 Louisiana 39.7 Maine 56.4 Maryland 61.3 Massachusetts 60 Michigan 52.7 Minnesota 54.2 Mississippi 41.8 Missouri 45.3 Montana 45.3 Nebraska 42.5 Nevada 52.2 New Hampshire 51.6 New Jersey 56.6 New Mexico 54.4 New York 63.2 North Carolina 49.1 North Dakota 41.7 Ohio 51.6 Oklahoma 33.5 Oregon 53.6 Pennsylvania 52.7 Rhode Island 63.1 South Carolina 44.3 South Dakota 44.8 Tennessee 43.3 Texas 41.4 Utah 26.7 Vermont 70.5 Virginia 51.1 Washington 57.1 West Virginia 42.8 Wisconsin 52.5 Wyoming 32 Win percentage: https://gwern.net/doc/2012-election-linzer-statewinprob.csv Alabama 0 Alaska 0.008666667 Arizona 0 Arkansas 0 California 100 Colorado 98.3333333 Connecticut 100 Delaware 98.3333333 Florida 60.4 Georgia 0 Hawaii 100 Idaho 0 Illinois 100 Indiana 0 Iowa 99.6666667 Kansas 3.8666667 Kentucky 0 Louisiana 0 Maine 100 Maryland 100 Massachusetts 100 Michigan 100 Minnesota 100 Mississippi 0 07.8666667 Missouri 0 Montana 0 Nebraska 0 Nevada 99.9333333 New Hampshire 99.8 New Jersey 100 New Mexico 100 New York 100 North Carolina 8.5333333 North Dakota 0 Ohio 99.8666667 Oklahoma 0 Oregon 99.8666667 Pennsylvania 100 Rhode Island 100 South Carolina 13.8666667 South Dakota 0 Tennessee 0 Texas 0 Utah 0 Vermont 100 Virginia 97.6 Washington 100 West Virginia 0.1333333 Wisconsin 100 Wyoming 0.0666667 # DeSart presidential probability: 88.62 electoral vote-share: 303 popular vote: 51.37 state win probabilities http://research.uvu.edu/DeSart/forecasting/november/1106.html : Alabama 0 Alaska 0 Arizona 3.9 Arkansas 0 California 100 Colorado 52.3 Connecticut 99.9 DC 100 Delaware 100 Florida 49.1 Georgia 3 Hawaii 100 Idaho 0 Illinois 100 Indiana 0.2 Iowa 77.0 Kansas 0 Kentucky 0 Louisiana 0 Maine 99.3 Maryland 100 Massachusetts 100 Michigan 93.5 Minnesota 96.1 Mississippi 0 Missouri 5.2 Montana 0.8 Nebraska 0 Nevada 76.8 New Hampshire 75.6 New Jersey 99.8 New Mexico 97.4 New York 100 North Carolina 6.6 North Dakota 0 Ohio 70.4 Oklahoma 0 Oregon 94.3 Pennsylvania 88.1 Rhode Island 100 South Carolina 0.3 South Dakota 0.1 Tennessee 0 Texas 0 Utah 0 Vermont 100 Virginia 50.9 Washington 99.8 West Virginia 0 Wisconsin 85.6 Wyoming 0 Vote-share estimates derived from: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ak59VfRjHcmAdEVxeE1PenJCRW1uYTg4LWN2WDI2Z3c#gid=0 DeSart & Holbrook Obama two-party vote share 35.2 32.2 46.4 38.7 59.2 50.1 57.7 60.5 95.8 49.9 45.5 66.6 29.1 60.8 43.1 51.8 39.4 41.9 39.3 55.9 61.9 62.8 53.7 54.3 40 46.1 44.2 39.8 51.8 51.7 57.1 54.7 64.6 47.7 40.1 51.3 35.4 53.8 52.9 65.2 43.3 42.7 41.3 40.7 25.9 70.7 50.1 57.1 39.8 52.6 30.1 11/6/2012 11:30:00 # Margin of Error presidential probability: 68% electoral vote-share: 303 national vote: 51.5% state vote-share: http://marginoferror.org/blog/summary.table.Nov05.csv ("Point Pred") state probability: http://marginoferror.org/blog/summary.table.Nov05.csv (1 - "P(Rep Win)") # Sam Wang & Andrew Ferguson presidential: probability: 100% (yes; he specifically says in http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/27/landfall/ that he thinks the 'Bayesian' prediction is the best one, and that's what the header specifies the prediction was as of 6 November). electoral vote-share: 303 national vote: 51.1% State win %: http://election.princeton.edu/code/matlab/stateprobs.csv (columns: https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/267032397235757056 ); Claimed Briers: https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/statuses/266713597193900034 state vote-shares: http://election.princeton.edu/code/matlab/stateprobs.csv wang <- read.table("http://election.princeton.edu/code/matlab/stateprobs.csv",sep=",") shares <- wang[,2] + 50 shares <- unlist(lapply(wang[,2], function(margin) {50 + (margin/2)})) wang2[1:2] % AL 0 AK 0 AZ 0 AR 0 CA 100 CO 84 CT 100 DC 100 DE 100 FL 50 GA 0 HI 100 ID 0 IL 100 IN 0 IA 84 KS 0 KY 0 LA 2 ME 100 MD 100 MA 100 MI 100 MN 100 MS 0 MO 0 MT 0 NE 0 NV 99 NH 84 NJ 100 NM 100 NY 100 NC 16 ND 0 OH 93 OK 0 OR 100 PA 93 RI 100 SC 0 SD 0 TN 0 TX 0 UT 0 VT 100 VA 84 WA 100 WV 0 WI 99 WY 0 wang2[,c(1,3)] shares AL 42.50 AK 39.00 AZ 46.00 AR 38.00 CA 57.50 CO 51.00 CT 56.50 DC 90.00 DE 62.50 FL 50.00 GA 46.00 HI 63.50 ID 32.00 IL 59.50 IN 43.50 IA 51.00 KS 41.50 KY 44.50 LA 43.50 ME 55.50 MD 61.00 MA 59.50 MI 52.75 MN 53.75 MS 44.00 MO 45.25 MT 45.75 NE 43.00 NV 52.50 NH 51.00 NJ 56.00 NM 53.00 NY 62.00 NC 49.00 ND 43.00 OH 51.50 OK 35.50 OR 53.00 PA 51.50 RI 62.00 SC 47.00 SD 44.50 TN 44.50 TX 42.00 UT 27.50 VT 65.50 VA 51.00 WA 57.00 WV 41.50 WI 52.25 WY 34.00 Wang hasn't provided Senate state margins, but did provide win probabilities http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/09/karl-rove-eats-a-bug/ State PEC Dem win % Arizona 12% Connecticut 99.8% Indiana 84% Massachusetts 96% Missouri 96% *Montana 69% [Nate got wrong] Nevada 27% *North Dakota 75% [Nate got wrong] Virginia 96% Wisconsin 72% Non-listed Senate races are listed as 95%/5% predictions per Wang's comment: > For all nonlisted races my implicit statement was that they were certain. I direct activist interest (on both sides) based on knife-edginess. I regarded them as 95% bets. This may not be enough for your purposes. # Josh Putnam Putnam's model turns out to be a weighted average of polls; it can predict shares and electoral vote-share, but not really anything else. presidential: electoral vote-share: 332 > The final FHQ weighted averages in the 32 states with late-entry data are below. The remainder were already in the clubhouse so to speak or were never, in the case of states like Delaware and Mississippi -- polled in 2012. state shares: # putnam.csv handcreated from http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-electoral-college-map-11612.html # w/Romney entries flipped the + to - > putnam <- read.table("putnam.csv",sep=",") > unlist(lapply(putnam[,2], function(margin) {50 + (margin/2)})) [1] 46.595 58.395 50.875 55.920 50.080 45.380 59.580 44.365 51.275 43.065 [11] 56.170 60.645 59.800 52.785 53.765 45.925 45.465 52.025 51.515 56.180 [21] 54.565 62.510 49.220 51.470 52.845 44.790 43.935 42.220 27.310 50.895 [31] 56.680 52.305 > putnam2 <- data.frame(putnam[1], unlist(lapply(putnam[,2], function(margin) {50 + (margin/2)}))) > putnam2 1 Arizona 46.595 2 California 58.395 3 Colorado 50.875 4 Connecticut 55.920 5 Florida 50.080 6 Georgia 45.380 7 Illinois 59.580 8 Indiana 44.365 9 Iowa 51.275 10 Louisiana 43.065 11 Maine 56.170 12 Maryland 60.645 13 Massachusetts 59.800 14 Michigan 52.785 15 Minnesota 53.765 16 Missouri 45.925 17 Montana 45.465 18 Nevada 52.025 19 New Hampshire 51.515 20 New Jersey 56.180 21 New Mexico 54.565 22 New York 62.510 23 North Carolina 49.220 24 Ohio 51.470 25 Pennsylvania 52.845 26 South Dakota 44.790 27 Tennessee 43.935 28 Texas 42.220 29 Utah 27.310 30 Virginia 50.895 31 Washington 56.680 32 Wisconsin 52.305 # Unskewed Polls presidential electoral vote-share: 263 national vote: 48.88 vote-share by state: Alabama 37.78 Alaska 36.40 Arizona 43.95 Arkansas 44.68 California 57.65 Colorado 49.48 Connecticut 54.55 DC 86.88 Delaware 57.40 Florida 47.60 Georgia 43.20 Hawaii 58.55 Idaho 30.95 Illinois 55.25 Indiana 41.90 Iowa 49.88 Kansas 36.60 Kentucky 40.80 Louisiana 43.63 Maine 51.90 Maryland 55.83 Massachusetts 60.10 Michigan 51.75 Minnesota 51.03 Mississippi 39.83 Missouri 46.20 Montana 38.80 Nebraska 34.40 Nevada 52.15 New Hampshire 50.03 New Jersey 53.80 New Mexico 53.53 New York 58.75 North Carolina 44.98 North Dakota 37.15 Ohio 47.75 Oklahoma 35.55 Oregon 50.53 Pennsylvania 50.28 Rhode Island 59.73 South Carolina 41.58 South Dakota 39.88 Tennessee 43.70 Texas 39.85 Utah 28.75 Vermont 56.53 Virginia 48.88 Washington 51.43 West Virginia 44.55 Wisconsin 49.98 Wyoming 30.55 # Intrade Used opening price on 6 November Presidential: http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/ states: http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/electoral-map/ / http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/key-races/states/ Senate: http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/key-races/senate/ (must select "expired") Presidential probability: 65.8 electoral share: 291 ('Number of Electoral College votes won by Democratic nominee in 2012 ($0.01 per vote)') popular vote: 50.75 Intrade split its contracts piece-wise (Nov 6 opening price) Obama to win the popular vote by: - 0.5%: 56.2 - 1.0%: 46 - 2.0%: 37 - 3.0%: 22.6 I interpret this as Intrade saying he is 56.2% likely to win at least 50.5% (50+0.5) but not likely to win 51% or more. So to split the difference, he will win an average of 50.5 & 51% or 50.75% of the vote. I don't think a more precise estimate can be made from the public info, State win %: Alabama 0 Alaska 0 Arizona 6 Arkansas 0 California 95 Colorado 55.6 Connecticut 99 DC 97.5 Delaware 96 Florida 33% Georgia 3 Hawaii 97.5 Idaho 0 Illinois 98.9 Indiana 2 Iowa 66.3 Kansas 0 Kentucky 0 Louisiana 0 Maine 93 Maryland 94 Massachusetts 99.5 Michigan 88.4 Minnesota 84.9 Mississippi 0 Missouri 5 Montana 5 Nebraska 0 Nevada 83.7 New Hampshire 64.9 New Jersey 97.9 New Mexico 93.9 New York 95 North Carolina 23 North Dakota 0.3 Ohio 65.5 Oklahoma 0.1 Oregon 95.9 Pennsylvania 82 Rhode Island 95 South Carolina 4 South Dakota 5 Tennessee 2 Texas 2 Utah 4.5 Vermont 98 Virginia 58 Washington 97.5 West Virginia 2 Wisconsin 74.6 Wyoming 0 Senate races: Arizona 22.5 California 99.8 Connecticut 88.8 Delaware 99 Florida 85.9 Hawaii 96 Indiana 85 Maine 4.3 Maryland 96 Massachusetts 78.6 Michigan 95 Minnesota 95 Mississippi 0 Missouri 70.3 Montana 37.1 Nebraska 6 Nevada 6 New Jersey 96 New Mexico 95 New York 100 North Dakota 15.5 Ohio 84 Pennsylvania 86 Rhode Island 99 Tennessee 0 Texas 2.5 Utah 0 Vermont 5 Virginia 78 Washington 96 West Virginia 95.1 Wisconsin 62.6 Wyoming 0