And on that dread day, the Ineffable One will summon the artificers and makers of graven images, and He will command them to give life to their creations, and failing, they and their creations will be dedicated to the flames…

Some say that a god lives on in the faith and memory of its believers. They point to computers and say, Behold, they need but think all together in a particular & precise mode, and from nowhere appear things real and greater than any they thought. Might not the same be true of humans, who are so much greater? But this is no more true than a painting of a flower the flower itself.

# Long term investment

That is, from January 1926 through December 2002, when holding periods were 19 years or longer, the cumulative real return on stocks was never negative…

How does one engage in extremely long investments? On a time-scale of centuries, investment is a difficult task, especially if one seeks to avoid erosion of returns by the costs of active management.

Unit Investment Trust (UIT) is a US investment company offering a fixed (unmanaged) portfolio of securities having a definite life.

A closed-end fund is a collective investment scheme with a limited number of shares

In long-term investments, one must become concerned about biases in the data used to make decisions. Many of these biases fall under the general rubric of observer biases - the canonical example being that stocks look like excellent investments if you only consider America’s stock market, where returns over long periods have been quite good. For example, if you had invested by tracking the major indices any time period from January 1926 through December 2002 and had held onto your investment for at least 19 years, you were guaranteed a positive real return. Of course, the specification of place (America) and time period (before the Depression and after the Internet bubble) should alert us that this guarantee may not hold elsewhere. Had a long-term investor in the middle of the 19th century decided to invest in a large up-and-coming country with a booming economy and strong military (much like the United States has been for much of the 20th century), they would have reaped excellent returns. That is, until the hyperinflation of the Wiemar Republic. Should their returns have survived the inflation and imposition of a new currency, then the destruction of the 3rd Reich would surely have rendered their shares and Reichmarks worthless. Similarly for another up-and-coming nation - Japan. Mention of Russia need not even be made.

Clearly, diversifying among companies in a sector, or even sectors in a national economy is not enough. Disaster can strike an entire nation. Rosy returns for stocks quietly ignore those bloody years in which exchanges plunged thousands of percent in real terms, and whose records burned in the flames of war. Over a timespan of a century, it is impossible to know whether such destruction will be visited on a given country or even whether it will still exist as a unit. How could Germany, the preeminent power on the Continent, with a burgeoning navy rivaling Britain’s, with the famous Prussian military and Junkers, with an effective industrial economy still famed for the quality of its mechanisms, and with a large homogeneous population of hardy people possibly fall so low as to be utterly conquered? And by the United States and others, for that matter? How could Japan, with its fanatical warriors and equally fanatical populace, its massive fleet and some of the best airplanes in the world - a combination that had humbled Russia, that had occupied Korea for nigh on 40 years, which easily set up puppet governments in Manchuria and China when and where it pleased - how could it have been defeated so wretchedly as to see its population literally decimated and its governance wholly supplanted? How could a god be dethroned?

It is perhaps not too much to say that investors in the United States, who say that the Treasury Bond has never failed to be redeemed and that the United States can never fall, are perhaps overconfident in their assessment. Inflation need not be hyper to cause losses. Greater nations have been destroyed quickly. Who remembers the days when the Dutch fought the English and the French to a standstill and ruled over the shipping lanes? Remember that Nineveh is one with the dust.

In short, our data on returns is biased. This bias indicates that stocks and cash are much more risky than most people think, and that this risk inheres in exogenous shocks to economies - it may seem odd to invest globally, in multiple currencies, just to avoid the rare black swans of total war and hyperinflation. But these risks are catastrophic risks. Even one may be too many.

This risk is more general. Governments can die, and so their bonds and other instruments (such as cash) rendered worthless; how many governments have died or defaulted over the last century? Many. The default assumption must be that the governments with good credit, who are not in that number, may simply have been lucky. And luck runs out.

In general, entities die unpredictably, and one has no guarantee that a, say, 1500 year old Korean construction company will honor its bills in another 500 years because all it takes is one bubble to drive it into bankruptcy. When one looks at securities turning into money, of course all you see are ones for those entities which survived. This is survivorship bias; our observations are biased because we aren’t looking at all of the past, but the present. This can be exploited, however. Obviously if an entity perishes, it has no need for assets.

Suppose one wishes to make a very long-term investment. One groups with a large number of other investors who wish to make similar investments, in a closed-end mutual fund with a share per investor, which is set to liquidate at some remote period. This fund would invest in assets all over the world and of various kinds, seeking great diversification. The key ingredient would be that shares are not allowed to be transferred. Should an investor perish, the value of their share would be split up amongst the other investors’ shares (a percentage could be used to pay for management, perhaps). Because of this ingredient, the expected return for any individual investor would be extremely high - the potential loss is 100%, but the investor by definition will never be around for that loss. Because the identity and number of investments is fixed, potential control of the assets could be dispersed among the investors so as to avoid the situation where war destroys the headquarters of whomever is managing the assets. The technical details are unimportant; cryptography has many ingenious schemes for such secret sharing (one can easily heavily encrypt a file as usual, and then using eg. Shamir’s Secret Sharing, create & distribute n keys where any chosen number of keys up to all n are needed to decrypt the file).

From Eliezer Yudkowsky’s The Apocalypse Bet

Suppose you think that gold will become worthless on April 27th, 2020 at between four and four-thirty in the morning. I, on the other hand, think this event will not occur until 2030. We can sign a contract in which I pay you one ounce of gold per year from 2010 to 2020, and then you pay me two ounces of gold per year from 2020 to 2030. If gold becomes worthless when you say, you will have profited; if gold becomes worthless when I say, I will have profited. We can have a prediction market on a generic apocalypse, in which participants who believe in an earlier apocalypse are paid by believers in a later apocalypse, until they pass the date of their prediction, at which time the flow reverses with interest. I don’t see any way to distinguish between apocalypses, but we can ask the participants why they were willing to bet, and probably receive a decent answer.

How can these prophets of doom cash in on their confidence? After all, they think that the state of the world where they’re proven right is a state of the world where nobody can reward them for being right. Aside from the self-congratulation, how can they benefit? By signing a contract right now. If you’re reasonably sure Treasuries will be worthless in a dozen years, you should find somebody who disagrees, and convince them to give you $1 today. If you’re right, then 12 years later you get to keep the money. If you’re wrong, you have to pay the other party the normal rate of return on the$1, plus a little extra. $2 should be plenty if you can back the contract with some collateral; maybe$4 otherwise. Notice what you’re doing here: You’re writing an uninsurance policy. You get the premiums up front, and you pay out only if things turn out fine. Since the other party is pretty sure things will turn out fine, the deal you’re offering from their point of view is about the same as any other investment. That’s why you only have to offer about the normal rate of return. The hard part here, of course, is convincing the other party you’ll repay in the future–your barrier to riches isn’t the apocalypse, it’s your own trustworthiness. That’s where attorneys and insurance companies come in. Lloyd’s is happy to offer hole-in-one insurance, so the industry has no problem writing policies that pay out upon joyous events.

# American light novels

I think one of the more interesting trends in anime is the massive number of adaptations of light novels done in the ’90s and 00s; it is interesting because no such trend exists in American media as far as I can tell (the closest I can think of are comic book adaptations, but of course those are analogous to the many mangas -> animes). Now, American media absolutely adapts many novels, but they are all normal Serious Business Novels. We do not seem to even have the light novel media - young adult novels do not cut the mustard. light novels are odd as they are kind of like speculative fiction novellas. The success of comic book movies has been much noted - could comic books be the American equivalent of light novels? There are attractive similarities in subject matter and even medium, light novels including a fair number of color manga illustrations.

• Question for self: if America doesn’t have the light novel category, is that a claim that the Twilight novels, and everything published under the James Patterson brand, are regular novels?

Answer: The Twilight novels are no more light novels than the Harry Potter novels were. The Patterson novels may fit, however; they have some of the traits such as very short chapters, simple literary style, and very quick moving plots, even though they lack a few less important traits (such as including illustrations). It might be better to say that there is no recognized and successful light novel genre rather than individual light novels - there are only unusual examples like the Patterson novels and other works uncomfortable listed under the Young Adult/Teenager rubric.

# Cultural growth through diversity

Leaving aside the corrosive effects on social solidarity documented by Putnam and Amy Chua’s market minorities, I’ve wondered about the artistic consequences of substantial diversity to a country or perhaps civilization. In Charles Murray’s Human Accomplishment, one of the strongest indicators for genius is contact with a foreign culture. This foreign contact can be pretty minimal - Thomas Malthus drew on threadbare descriptions of China’s teeming population, and the French philosophes had little more to go on when drawing inspiration in Confucianism, as did the later rococo and chinoiserie artists; much of American design and art traces back to interpretations of East Asian art based on few works, and the sprawling American cults or New Age movements and everything that umbrella term influenced post-’60s were not based on deep scholarship. They did much with little, one might say. This seems fairly true of many fertile periods: the foreigners make up, at most, a few percent of the population.

We are doubtless deluding ourselves with a dream when we think that equality and fraternity will some day reign among human beings without compromising their diversity. However, if humanity is not resigned to becoming the sterile consumer of values that it managed to create in the past…capable only of giving birth to bastard works, to gross and puerile inventions, [then] it must learn once again that all true creation implies a certain deafness to the appeal of other values, even going so far as to reject them if not denying them altogether. For one cannot fully enjoy the other, identify with him, and yet at the same time remain different. When integral communication with the other is achieved completely, it sooner or later spells doom for both his and my creativity. The great creative eras were those in which communication had become adequate for mutual stimulation by remote partners, yet was not so frequent or so rapid as to endanger the indispensable obstacles between individuals and groups or to reduce them to the point where overly facile exchanges might equalize and nullify their diversity.Claude Levi-Strauss, The View from Afar pg 23 (quoted in Clifford Geertz’s The Uses of Diversity Tanner Lecture)

And so on. It seems cultures benefit most from cross-pollination when there’s only a little, but globalization is forcing contact way beyond that, if you follow me.

In schools, one sees students move in cliques and especially so with students who share a native language and are non-native English speakers - one can certainly understand why they would do such a thing, or why immigrants would congregate in ghettos or Chinatowns or Koreatowns where they can speak freely and talk of the old country; perhaps this homophily drives the reduced cross-fertilizing by reducing the chances of crossing paths. (If one is the only Yid around, one must interact with many goyim, but not so if there are many others around.) Is this enough? It doesn’t seem like enough to me.

This is a little perplexing. What’s the explanation? Could it be that as populations build up, all the early artists sucked out the novelty available in hybridizing native material with the foreign material? Or is there something stimulating about having only a few examples - does one draw faulty but fruitful inferences based on idiosyncrasies of the small data set? In machine learning, the more data available, the less wild the guesses are, but in art, wildness is a way of jumping out of a local minima to somewhere new. If Yeats had available the entire Chinese corpus, would he produce better new English poems than when he pondered obsessively a few hundred verses, or would he simply produce better English pastiches of Chinese poems? Knowledge can be a curse by making it difficult or impossible to think new thoughts and see new angles. Or perhaps the foreign material is important only as a hint to what the artist was trying already to achieve; in psychology, there is an interesting variant on the cocktail party effect key effect where one hears only static noise in a recording, is given a hint at the sentence spoken in the recording, and then one can suddenly hear it through the noise. Perhaps the original aims are entirely unimportant, and what is at play is a sort of pareidolia or apophenia (akin to electronic voice phenomenon, to continue the sound metaphor).

Question: How much effort should go into library work?

Hamming: It depends upon the field. I will say this about it. There was a fellow at Bell Labs, a very, very, smart guy. He was always in the library; he read everything. If you wanted references, you went to him and he gave you all kinds of references. But in the middle of forming these theories, I formed a proposition: there would be no effect named after him in the long run. He is now retired from Bell Labs and is an Adjunct Professor. He was very valuable; I’m not questioning that. He wrote some very good Physical Review articles; but there’s no effect named after him because he read too much. If you read all the time what other people have done you will think the way they thought. If you want to think new thoughts that are different, then do what a lot of creative people do - get the problem reasonably clear and then refuse to look at any answers until you’ve thought the problem through carefully how you would do it, how you could slightly change the problem to be the correct one. So yes, you need to keep up. You need to keep up more to find out what the problems are than to read to find the solutions. The reading is necessary to know what is going on and what is possible. But reading to get the solutions does not seem to be the way to do great research. So I’ll give you two answers. You read; but it is not the amount, it is the way you read that counts.1

# Decluttering

Ego depletion refers to the idea that self-control and other mental processes that require focused conscious effort rely on energy that can be used up. When that energy is low (rather than high), mental activity that requires self-control is impaired. In other words, using one’s self-control impairs the ability to control one’s self later on. In this sense, the idea of (limited) willpower is correct.

Wonder whether this has any connection with minimalism? Clutter might damage executive functions; Killingsworth & Gilbert 2010 correlated distraction with later unhappiness, and from Henry Morton Stanley’s Unbreakable Will, Roy F. Baumeister and John Tierney:

You might think the energy spent shaving in the jungle would be better devoted to looking for food. But Stanley’s belief in the link between external order and inner self-discipline has been confirmed recently in studies. In one experiment, a group of participants answered questions sitting in a nice neat laboratory, while others sat in the kind of place that inspires parents to shout, Clean up your room! The people in the messy room scored lower self-control, such as being unwilling to wait a week for a larger sum of money as opposed to taking a smaller sum right away. When offered snacks and drinks, people in the neat lab room more often chose apples and milk instead of the candy and sugary colas preferred by their peers in the pigsty.

In a similar experiment online, some participants answered questions on a clean, well-designed website. Others were asked the same questions on a sloppy website with spelling errors and other problems. On the messy site, people were more likely to say that they would gamble rather than take a sure thing, curse and swear, and take an immediate but small reward rather than a larger but delayed reward. The orderly websites, like the neat lab rooms, provided subtle cues guiding people toward self-disciplined decisions and actions helping others.

Michael Lewis, Obama’s Way:

This time he covered a lot more ground and was willing to talk about the mundane details of presidential existence. You have to exercise, he said, for instance. Or at some point you’ll just break down. You also need to remove from your life the day-to-day problems that absorb most people for meaningful parts of their day. You’ll see I wear only gray or blue suits, he said. I’m trying to pare down decisions. I don’t want to make decisions about what I’m eating or wearing. Because I have too many other decisions to make. He mentioned research that shows the simple act of making decisions degrades one’s ability to make further decisions. It’s why shopping is so exhausting. You need to focus your decision-making energy. You need to routinize yourself. You can’t be going through the day distracted by trivia.

It’s striking how cluttered a big city is when you visit them from a rural area; it’s also striking how mental disease seems to correlate with cities and how mental performance improves with natural vista and not urban vistas.

Latent inhibition is a process by which exposure to a stimulus of little or no consequence prevents conditioned associations with that stimulus being formed. The ability to disregard or even inhibit formation of memory, by preventing associative learning of observed stimuli, is an automatic response and is thought to prevent information overload. Latent inhibition is observed in many species, and is believed to be an integral part of the observation/learning process, to allow the self to interact successfully in a social environment.

Most people are able to shut out the constant stream of incoming stimuli, but those with low latent inhibition cannot. It is hypothesized that a low level of latent inhibition can cause either psychosis, a high level of creativity[1] or both, which is usually dependent on the subject’s intelligence.[2][3] Those of above average intelligence are thought to be capable of processing this stream effectively, an ability that greatly aids their creativity and ability to recall trivial events in incredible detail and which categorizes them as almost creative geniuses. Those with less than average intelligence, on the other hand, are less able to cope, and so as a result are more likely to suffer from mental illness.

Interesting decluttering approach: 100 Things Challenge

# The Count of Zarathustra

The count of Monte Cristo as a Nietzschean hero?

# Title

Good poem title: The Scarecrow Appeals to Glenda the Good

novel idea: an ancient British family has a 144 character (no spaces) string which encodes the political outcomes of the future eg. the restoration, the Glorious Rebellion, Napoleon, Nazis etc. thus the family has been able to pick the winning side every time and maintain its place. but they cannot interpret the remaining characters pertaining to our time. they hire researcher/librarians to crack it. one of them is our narrator. in the course of figuring it out, he becomes one of the sides mentioned. possible plot device: he has a corrupted copy?

# Misc. haiku

Down on the grasses,
I gaze at the summer sun -
And it gazes back!

Death poems are all just
falling blossoms and nonsense -
dying is dying

# Somatic genetic engineering

What’s the killer app for non-medical genetic engineering in humans?

How about germ-line engineering of hair color? think about it. hair color is controlled by relatively few, and well-understood, genes. hair color is a dramatic change. there is massive demand for hair dye as it is, even with the extra effort and impermanence and unsatisfactory results. how many platinum blonds would jump at the chance to have kids who are truly enviably blond? or richly red-headed (and not washed-out Irish read)? A heck of a lot, I’d say. The health risks need not be enormous - aside from the intervention itself, what risk could swapping a brunette gene for blond cause? (There apparently is just 1 relevant gene: Frost’s theory is also backed up by a separate scientific analysis of north European genes carried out at three Japanese universities, which has isolated the date of the genetic mutation that resulted in blond hair to about 11,000 years ago. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article735078.ece)

What sort of market could we expect? Demographics of the United States 103,129,321 women between 15 and 64; these are women who could be using dye themselves, so appreciate the benefit, and are of child-bearing years.

Likely, the treatment will only work if there’s natural variation to begin with - that is, for Caucasians only. We’ll probably want to exclude Hispanics and Latin Americans, who are almost as homogeneous in hair color as blacks and Asians, so that leaves us 66% of the total US population. 66% * 103,129,321 will get us a rough estimate of 6.806535186e7 or 68,065,351.

http://www.isteve.com/blondes.htm claims that One study estimated that of the 30% of North American women who are blonde, 5/6ths had some help from a bottle. (0.3 * (5/6) = 0.25 or 25%) says Demographics of Mexico says 53,013,433 females Canada 2006 Census#Age and sex 16,136,925

or 172,279,679 when you sum up Mexico/Canada/USA (the remaining NA states are too small to care about); 25% of 172,279,679 is 43,069,919. 43 million dye users.

Here’s a random report http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reportinfo.asp?report_id=305358 saying hair dye is worth 1 billion USD a year. Let’s assume that this is all consumed domestically by women. (So 1,000,000,000 / 43,069,919 per year is 23)

A woman using hair dye on a permanent basis will be dying every month or so, or 12 times a year. Assume that one dye job is ~20 USD* (she’s not doing it herself); then ((1b / 20) / 12) gives us ~4,166,666 women using hair dye, or 1/24 or 4.1% of eligible women. This seems rather low to me, based on observations, but I suppose it may be that elderly women do not use much hair dye, or the trend to using highlights and less-than-complete dye jobs. But 4% seems like a rather safe lower end. That’s a pretty large market - 4 million potential customers, who are regularly expressing their financial commitment to their desire to have some hair color other than their natural one.

If each is spending even 100$a year on it, a genetic engineering treatment could pay for itself very quickly. At 1000$, just 10 years. (And women can expect to live ~80). Not to mention, one would expect the natural hair to simply look better than the dye job.

There’s a further advantage to this: it seems reasonable to expect that early forms of this sort of therapy will simply not work for minorities such as blacks or Hispanics - their markets wouldn’t justify the research to make it work for them; their dark hair colors seem to be very dominant genetically, and likely the therapy would be working with recessive alleles (at least, it seems intuitively plausible that there is less distance between making a Caucasian embryo, who might even have a recessive blonde allele already, fully blond, as compared to making a black baby, who would never ever come anywhere near a non-black hair color, blond). So marketing would benefit from an implicit racism and classism: racism in that one might need to be substantially Caucasian to benefit, and classism to be able to pony up the money up front.

• I think this price is a low-ball estimate by at least 50%; hopefully it will give us a margin of error, since I’m not sure how often dye-jobs need to be done.

# The Camel Has Two Humps

Why does the camel have 2 humps? The camel has two humps (working title): All teachers of programming find that their results display a double hump. It is as if there are two populations: those who can, and those who cannot, each with its own independent bell curve.

Attractive as this idea is, Alan Kay seems a little skeptical and replications of the test have had issues; from Mental models, Consistency and Programming Aptitude:

We now report that after six experiments, involving more than 500 students at six institutions in three countries, the predictive effect of our test has failed to live up to that early promise.

A test was designed that apparently examined a student’s knowledge of assignment and sequence before a first course in programming but in fact was designed to capture their reasoning strategies. An experiment found two distinct populations of students: one could build and consistently apply a mental model of program execution; the other appeared either unable to build a model or to apply one consistently. The first group performed very much better in their end-of-course examination than the second in terms of success or failure. The test does not very accurately predict levels of performance, but by combining the result of six replications of the experiment, five in UK and one in Australia. We show that consistency does have a strong effect on success in early learning to program but background programming experience, on the other hand, has little or no effect.

Nevertheless, I think there’s something to this: your first computer language is really hard no matter your experience but the second is almost trivial, unless it’s a truly alien paradigm.

This suggests some questions to me. Obviously on a raw information level, a natural language is much more complex than a computer language (the former are almost indefinitely complex with vocabulary, and the latter are engineered to be simple). Is it, relatively speaking, easier to learn a second natural language, or a second computer language? That is, if the difficulty of learning a second computer language is perhaps 10% of learning the first language, is that better or worse than the difficulty of learning a second natural language after one’s native language? My own impression is that learning Haskell after I knew some Java was a lot easier than my first attempt at learning Haskell; when I learned some French after learning Haskell, it seemed easier than before but not that much easier. If this is so, it suggests that computer languages share more deep similarities than natural languages. What is the knack of programming? Why do people never seem to cease being programmers - what irreversible paradigm shift happens in their heads?

# The Peace War game

Tellman initialized the Celest board to level nine, Rosas noticed. The kid studied the setup with a calculating look. Tellman’s display was a flat, owing a hypothetical solar system as seen from above the plane of rotation. The three planets were small disks of light moving around the primary. Their size gave a clue to mass, but the precise values appeared near the bottom of the display. Departure and arrival planets moved in visibly eccentric orbits, the departure planet at one rev every five seconds - fast enough so precession was clearly occurring. Between it and the destination planet moved a third world, also in eccentric orbit. Rosas grimaced. No doubt the only reason Tellman left the problem coplanar was that he didn’t have a holo display for his Celest. Mike had never seen anyone without a symbiotic processor play the departure/destination version of Celest at level nine. The timer on the display showed that the player - the kid - had ten seconds to launch his rocket and try to make it to the destination. From the fuel display, Rosas was certain that there was not enough energy available to make the flight in a direct orbit. A cushion shot on top everything else!

The kid laid all his bank notes on the table and squinted at the screen. Six seconds left. He grasped the control handles and twitched them. The tiny golden spark that represented his spacecraft fell away from the green disk of the departure world, inward toward the yellow sun about which all revolved. He had used more than nine-tenths of his fuel and had boosted in the wrong direction. The children around him murmured their displeasure, and a smirk came over Tellman’s face. The smirk froze:

As the spacecraft came near the sun, the kid gave the controls another twitch, a boost which - together with the gravity of the primary-sent the glowing dot far out into the mock solar system. It edged across the two-meter screen, slowing the greater remove, heading not for the destination planet but for the intermediary. Rosas gave an low, involuntary whistle. He had played Celest, both alone and with a processor. The game was nearly a century old and almost as popular as chess; it made you remember what the human race had almost attained. Yet he had never seen such a two-cushion shot by an unaided player.

Tellman’s smile remained but his face was turning a bit gray. The vehicle drew close to the middle planet, catching up to it as it swung slowly about the primary. The kid made barely perceptible adjustments in the trajectory during the closing period. Fuel status on the display showed 0.001 full. The representation of the planet and the spacecraft merged for an instant, but did not record as a collision, for the tiny dot moved quickly away, going for the far reaches of the screen.

Around them, the other children jostled and hooted. They smelled a winner, and old Tellman was going to lose a little of the money he had been winning off them earlier in the day. Rosas and Naismith and Tellman just watched and held their breaths. With virtually no fuel left, it would be a matter of luck whether contact finally occurred.

The reddish disk of the destination planet swam placidly along while the mock spacecraft arced higher and higher, slower and slower, their paths becoming almost tangent. The craft was accelerating now, falling into the gravity well the destination, giving the tantalizing impression of success that always comes with a close shot. Closer and closer. And the two lights became one on the board.

Intercept, the display announced, and the stats streamed across the lower part of the screen. Rosas and Naismith looked at each other. The kid had done it

Visual presentation: basic problem, how to represent 4D trajectories, since players simply can’t be given all the necessary information, must be computed. The trajectories are orbital paths. Plot paths as visible lines, with color: time is represented as shades of color, from red->purple. Each time unit is one pixel change, for example. 2 lines/paths intersect/collide only if they have the same color when crossing. Perhaps color intersections black or white to denote collision or miss? (And grey to indicate near-miss? Or closeness of approach?)

# The advantage of an uncommon name

Theory: as time passes, it becomes more and more costly to have a common name: a name which frequently appears either in history or in born-digital works. In the past, having a name like John Smith may have not been a disadvantage - connections were personal, no one confused one John Smith with another, textual records were only occasionally used. It might sometimes be an issue with bureaucracy such as taxes or the legal system, but nowhere else.

But online, it is important to be findable. You want your friends on Facebook to find you with the first hit. You want potential employers doing surreptitious Google searches before an interview to see your accomplishments and not others’ demerits; you do not want, as Abigail Garvey discovered when she married a Wilson, employers thinking your resume fraudulent because you are no longer ranking highly in Google searches. As Kevin Kelly has since put it:

With such a common first/last name attached to my face, I wanted my children to have unique names. They were born before Google, but the way I would put it today, I wanted them to have Google-unique names.

Vladimir Nesov termed having a common given and surname like John Smith as being Google Stupid. Clive Thompson says that search rankings were why he originally started blogging:

Today’s search engines reward people who have online presences that are well-linked-to. So the simplest way to hack Google to your advantage is to blog about something you find personally interesting, at which point other people with similar interests will begin linking to you - and the upwards cascade begins.

This is precisely one of the reasons I started Collision Detection: I wanted to 0wnz0r the search string Clive Thompson. I was sick of the British billionaire and Rentokil CEO Lord Clive Thompson getting all the attention, and, frankly, as a freelance writer, it’s crucially important for anyone who wants to locate me - a source, an editor, old friends - to be able to do so instantly with a search engine. Before my blog, a search for Clive Thompson produced a blizzard of links dominated by the billionaire; I appeared only a few times in the first few pages, and those were mostly just links to old stories I’d written that didn’t have current email addresses. But after only two months of blogging, I had enough links to propel my blog onto the first page of a Google search for my name.

This isn’t obvious. It’s easy to raise relatively rare risks as objections (but how many cases of identity theft are made possible solely by a relatively unique name making a person google-able? Surely few compared to the techniques of mass identity theft: corporate espionage, dumpster diving, cracking, skimming etc.) To appreciate the advantages, you have to be a digital native. Until you’ve tried to Google friends or acquaintances, the hypothesis that unique names might be important will never occur to you. Until then, as long as your name was unique inside your school classes, or your neighborhood, or your section of the company, you would never notice. Even researchers spend their time researching unimportant correlations like people named Baker becoming bakers more often, or people tending to move to a state whose name they share (like Georgia).

What does one do? One avoids as much as possible choosing any name which is in the say, top 100 most popular names. People with especially rare surnames may be able to get away with common personal names, but not the Smiths. (It’s easy to check how common names are with online tools drawing on US Census data. My own name pair is unique at the expense of the Dutch surname being 12 letters long, and difficult to remember.)

But one doesn’t wake up and say I will name myself Zachariah today because John is just too damn common. After 20 years or more, one is heavily invested in one’s name. It’s acceptable to change one’s surname (women do it all the time), but not the first name.

One does decide the first name of one’s children, though, and it’s iron tradition that one does so. So we can expect digital natives to shy away from common names when naming their kids. But remember who are the digital natives - kids and teenagers of the 00s, at the very earliest. If they haven’t been on, say, Facebook for years, they don’t count. Let’s say their ages are 0-20 during 2008 when Facebook really picked up steam in the non-college population; and let’s say that they won’t have kids until ~30. The oldest of this cohort will reach child-bearing age at around 2018, and every one after that can be considered a digital native from osmosis if nothing else. If all this is true, then beginning with 2018, we will see a growinglong tail’ of baby names.

So this is a good story: we have a suboptimal situation (too many collisions in the new global namespace of the Internet) and a predicted adjustment with specific empirical consequences.

But there are issues.

• Rare names may come with comprehensibility issues; Zooko’s triangle in cryptography says that names cannot be unique, globally valid, and short or human-meaningful. You have to compromise on some aspect.
• There’s already a decline in popular names, according to Wikipedia:

Since about 1800 in England and Wales and in the U.S., the popularity distribution of given names has been shifting so that the most popular names are losing popularity. For example, in England and Wales, the most popular female and male names given to babies born in 1800 were Mary and John, with 24% of female babies and 22% of male babies receiving those names, respectively. In contrast, the corresponding statistics for in England and Wales in 1994 were Emily and James, with 3% and 4% of names, respectively. Not only have Mary and John gone out of favor in the English speaking world, also the overall distribution of names has changed significantly over the last 100 years for females, but not for males.

(The female trend has continued through to 2010: The 1,000 top girl names accounted for only 67% of all girl names last year, down from 91% in 1960 and compared with 79% for boys last year.2) The theory could probably be rescued by saying that the advantage of having a unique given name (and thus a relatively unique full name) goes that far back, but then we would need to explain why the advantage would be there for women, but not men. On the other hand, Social Security data seems to indicate both a 2-century long decline in the popularity of the top ten names and also a convergence of top-ten name rarity; from Andrew Gelman:

• Pop culture is known to have a very strong influence on baby names (cf. the popularity of Star Wars and the subsequent massive spike in Luke). The counter-arguments to The Long Tail marketing theory say that pop culture is becoming ever more monolithic and hit-driven. The fewer hits, and the more mega-hits, the more we could expect a few names to spike and drive down the rate of other names. The effect on a rare name can be incredible even from relatively small hits (the song in question was only a Top 10):

Kayleigh became a particularly popular name in the United Kingdom following the release of a song by the British rock group Marillion. Government statistics in 2005 revealed that 96% of Kayleighs were born after 1985, the year in which Marillion releasedKayleigh.3

• Given names follow a power-law distribution already where a few names dominate, and so small artifacts can make it appear that there is a shift towards unpopular names. Immigration or ethnic groups can distort the statistics and make us think we see a decline in popular names when we’re actually seeing an increase in popular names elsewhere - imagine all the Muhammeds and Jesuses we might see in the future. Those will show up as decreases in the percentages of John or James or Emily or William, and fool us, even though Muhammed and Jesus are 2 of the most popular names in the world.
• One informal analysis suggests short first names are strongly correlated with higher salaries.

(Much of the above appears to be pretty common knowledge among people interested in baby names and onomastics in general; for example, a Washington Post editorial by Laura Wattenberg, Are our unique baby names that unique?, 16 Sunday May 2010, argues much of the above.)

# Optimizing the alphabet

Here’s an interesting idea: the glyphs of the Phoenician-style alphabet are not optimized in any sense. They are bad in several ways, and modern glyphs are little better. For example, v and w, or m and n. People confuse them all the time, both in reading and in writing.

So that’s one criterion: glyphs should be as distinct from all the rest as possible.

What’s a related criterion? m and w are another pair which seem suboptimal, yet they are as dissimilar as, say, a and b, under many reasonable metrics. m and w are related via symmetry. Even though they share relatively few pixels, they are still identical under rotation, and we can see that. We could confuse them if we were reading upside down, or at an angle, or just confuse them period.

So that’s our next criterion: the distinctness must also hold when the glyph is rotated by any degree and then compared to the rest.

OK, so we now have a set of unique and dissimilar glyphs that are unambiguous about their orientation. What else? Well, we might want them to be easy to write as well as read. How do we define easy to write? We could have a complicated physiological model about what strokes can easily follow what movements and so on, but we will cop out and say: it is made of as few straight lines and curves as possible. Rather than unwritable pixels in a grid, our primitives will be little geometric primitives.

The fewer the primitives and the closer to integers or common fractions the positioning of said primitives, the simpler and the better.

We throw all these rules in, add a random starting population or better yet a population modeled after the existing alphabet, and begin our genetic algorithm. What 26 glyphs will we get?

Problem: our current glyphs may be optimal in a deep sense:

Dehaene describes some fascinating and convincing evidence for the first kind of innateness. In one of the most interesting chapters, he argues that the shapes we use to make written letters mirror the shapes that primates use to recognize objects. After all, I could use any arbitrary squiggle to encode the sound at the start of Tree instead of a T. But actually the shapes of written symbols are strikingly similar across many languages. It turns out that T shapes are important to monkeys, too. When a monkey sees a T shape in the world, it is very likely to indicate the edge of an object - something the monkey can grab and maybe even eat. A particular area of its brain pays special attention to those significant shapes. Human brains use the same area to process letters. Dehaene makes a compelling case that these brain areas have been recycled for reading. We did not invent most of our letter shapes, he writes. They lay dormant in our brains for millions of years, and were merely rediscovered when our species invented writing and the alphabet. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/03/books/review/Gopnik-t.html

# Meta

A: But who is to say that a butterfly could not dream of a man? You are not the butterfly to say so!

B: No. Better to ask what manner of beast could dream of a man dreaming a butterfly, and a butterfly dreaming a man.

# Why IQ doesn’t matter and how points mislead

One common anti-IQ arguments is that IQ does nothing and may be actively harmful past 120 or 130 or so; the statistical evidence is there to support a loss of correlation with success, and commentators can adduce William Sidis if they don’t themselves know any such slackers, or the Terman report’s similar findings (viz. that personality factors matter more after ~130+).

This is a reasonable objection. But it is rarely proffered by people really familiar with IQ, who also rarely respond to it. Why? I believe they have an intuitive understanding that IQ is a percentile ranking, not an absolute measurement. (IQ is ordinal, not cardinal.)

It is plausible that the 20 points separating 100 and 120 represents far more cognitive power and ability than that separating 120 and 140, or 140 and 160. To move from 100 to 120 with a standard deviation of 15, one must surpass 40% of the population; to move from 120 to 140 requires surpassing a smaller percentage (~8.7%), and 140-160 smaller yet - which makes sense, since the higher the IQ, the smaller the percentage of the overall population to begin with!

Similarly it should make us wonder how much absolute ability is being measured at the upper ranges when we reflect that, while normal (relatively low) adult IQs are stable over years, they are unstable in the short-term and test results can vary dramatically even if there is no distorting factors like emotional disturbance or varying caffeine consumption. If one question at the end of an IQ test is the difference between an IQ of 170 and 160, wouldn’t one expect a great deal of variance and reduced reliability? (I’m not familiar with the high-normed IQ literature; this may be utterly obvious and well-supported experimentally.)

Another thought: are the kids in your local special ed program mentally closer to chimpanzees, or to Albert Einstein/Terence Tao? Pondering all the things we expect even special ed kids to learn or already know (vision, natural language, eye-hand coordination - all the stuff of Moravec’s paradox), I think those kids are vastly closer to Einstein than monkeys.

And if retarded kids are closer to Einstein that the smartest non-human animal, that indicates human intelligence is very narrow, and that there is a vast spectrum of stupidity stretching below us all the way down to viruses (which only learn through evolution). (Current IQ tests are designed for, tested against, and normed on fine distinctions among humans. It is very hard to test animal intelligence because of differing incentives and sensory systems, but if one deals with those problems, there ought to be some general intelligence of prediction and problem solving; the approach I favor is AIXI-style IQ tests.)

A gap like 20 points looks very impressive from our narrow compressed human perspective, but it reflects very little absolute difference; to a sheep, other sheep are each distinctive. In Big O computer terms, we might say that geniuses are a constant factor faster than their dimmer brethren, but not asymptotically faster.

It is expected then, that someone measured at 180 doesn’t make the rest of us look like a nigh-comatose retard of 20 IQ points. To be so smart requires thousands of factors (mental & biological) to click just right (genetically correlating with thousands of variations, and not a few master genes); if ordinary people luck out on 900 factors, then those geniuses’ scores are trying to secern differences of 2 or 3 factors. The practical impact of a few factors out of thousands may be minimal, and explain the findings without denying the existence of such differences.

# Backups: life and death

Consider the plight of an upload - a human mind running on a computer rather than a brain. It has the advantage of all digital data: perfect fidelity in replication, fast replication - replication period. An upload could well be immortal. But an upload is also very fragile. It needs storage at every instance of its existence, and it needs power for every second of thought. It doesn’t carry with it any reserves - a bit is a bit, there are no bits more durable than other bits, nor bits which carry small batteries or UPSes with themselves.

So reliable backups are literally life and death for uploads.

But backups are a double-edged sword for uploads. If I backup my photos to Amazon S3 and a bored employee pages through them, that’s one thing; annoying or career-ending as it may be, pretty much the worst thing that could happen is that I get put in jail for a few decades for child pornography. But for an upload? If an enemy got a copy of its full backups, the upload has essentially been kidnapped. The enemy can now run copies and torture them for centuries, or use them to attack the original running copy (as hostages, in false flag attacks, or simply to understand & predict what the original will do). The negative consequences of a leak are severe.

So backups need to be both reliable and secure. These are conflicting desires, though.

One basic principle of long-term storage is LOCKSS: lots of copies keeps stuff safe. Libraries try to distribute copies of books to as many holders as possible, on the premise that each holder’s failure to preserve a copy is a random event independent of all the other holders; thus, increasing the number of holders can give arbitrarily high assurances that a copy will survive. But the more copies, the more risk one copy will be misused. That’s fine if misuse of a book is selling it to a book collector or letting it rot in a damp basement; but misuse of a conscious being is unacceptable.

Suppose one encrypts the copies? Suppose one uses a one-time pad, since one worries that an encrypted copy which is bullet-proof today may be copied and saved for centuries until the encryption has been broken, and is perfectly certain the backups are secure. Now one has 2 problems: making sure the backups survive until one needs them, and making sure the one-time pad survives as well! If the future upload is missing either one, nothing works.

The trade-off is unfortunate, but let’s consider secure backups. The first and most obvious level is physical security. Most systems are highly vulnerable to attackers who have physical access; desktop computers are trivially hacked, and DRM is universally a failure.

Any backup ought to be as inaccessible as possible. Security through obscurity might work, but let’s imagine really inaccessible backups. How about hard drives in orbit? No, that’s too close: commercial services can reach orbit easily, to say nothing of governments. And orbit doesn’t offer too much hiding space. How about orbit not around the Earth, but around the Solar System? Say, past the orbit of Pluto?

That offers an enormous volume: the Kuiper Belt is roughly ~1.9530 cubic kilometers4. The lightspeed delay is at least 20 minutes, but latency isn’t an issue; a backup protocol on Earth could fire off one request to an orbiting device and the device would then transmit back everything it stored without waiting for any replies or confirmations (somewhat like UDP).

1030 cubic kilometers is more than enough to hide small stealthy devices in. But once it sends a message back to Earth, its location has been given away - the Doppler effect will yield its velocity and the message gives its location at a particular time. This isn’t enough to specify its orbit, but it cuts down significantly on where the device could be. 2 such messages and the orbit is known. A restore would require more than 2 messages.

The device could self-destruct after sending off its encrypted payload. But that is very wasteful. We want the orbit to change unpredictably after each broadcast.

If we imagine that at each moment the device chooses between firing a thruster to go left or right, then we could imagine the orbit as being a message encrypted with a one-time pad - a one-time pad, remember, being a string of random bits. The message is the original orbit; the one-time pad is a string of random bits shared by Earth and the device. Given the original orbit, and knowing when and how many messages have been sent by the device, Earth can compute what the new orbit is and where the device will be in the future. (It started off on this orbit, then the random bit-string said at time X to go left, then at X+1, go left again, then at X+Y, go right; remembering how fast it was going, that means it should now be… there in the constellation of Virgo.)

The next step up is a symmetric cipher: a shared secret used not to determine future orbit changes, but to send messages back and forth - go this way next; I’m going this way next; start a restore etc. But an enemy can observe where the messages are coming from, and can work out that the first message must’ve been X, since if it was at point N and then showed up at point O, only one choice fits, which means this encrypted message meant X, which lets me begin to figure out the shared secret.

A public-key system would be better: the device encrypts all its messages against Earth’s private key, and vice versa. Now the device can randomly choose where to go and tell Earth its choice so Earth knows where to aim its receivers and transmitters next.

But can we do better?

# A secular humanist reads The Tale of Genji

After several years, I finished reading Edward Seidensticker’s translation of The Tale of Genji. Many thoughts occurred to me towards the end, when the novelty of the Heian era began to wear off and I could be more critical.

The prevalence of poems & puns is quite remarkable. It is also remarkable how tired they all feel; in Genji, poetry has lost its magic and has simply become another stereotyped form of communication, as codified as a letter to the editor or small talk. I feel fortunate that my introductions to Japanese poetry have usually been small anthologies of the greatest poets; had I first encountered court poetry through Genji, I would have been disgusted by the mawkish sentimentality & repetition.

The gender dynamics are remarkable. Toward the end, one of the two then main characters becomes frustrated and casually has sex with a serving lady; it’s mentioned that he liked sex with her better than with any of the other servants. Much earlier in Genji (it’s a good thousand pages, remember), Genji simply rapes a woman, and the central female protagonist, Murasaki, is kidnapped as a girl and he marries her while still what we would consider a child. (I forget whether Genji sexually molests her before the pro forma marriage.) This may be a matter of non-relativistic moral appraisal, but I get the impression that in matters of sexual fidelity, rape, and children, Heian-era morals were not much different from my own, which makes the general immunity all the more remarkable. (This is the shining Genji?) The double-standards are countless.

The power dynamics are equally remarkable. Essentially every speaking character is nobility, low or high, or Buddhist clergy (and very likely nobility anyway). The characters spend next to no time on work like running the country, despite many main characters ranking high in the hierarchy and holding minister-level ranks; the Emperor in particular does nothing except party. All the households spend money like mad, and just expect their land-holdings to send in the cash. (It is a signal of their poverty that the Uji household ever even mentions how less money is coming from their lands than used to.) The Buddhist clergy are remarkably greedy & worldly; after the death of the father of the Uji household, the abbot of the monastery he favored sends the grief-stricken sisters a note - which I found remarkably crass - reminding them that he wants the customary gifts of valuable textiles.

The medicinal practices are utterly horrifying. They seem to consist, one and all, of the following algorithm: while sick, pay priests to chant. If chanting doesn’t work, hire more priests. (One freethinker suggests that a sick woman eat more food.) Chanting is, at least, not outright harmful like bloodletting, but it’s still sickening to read through dozens of people dying amidst chanting. In comparison, the bizarre superstitions (such as trapping them in houses on inauspicious days) that guide many characters’ activities are unobjectionable.

The ending is so abrupt, and so clearly unfinished; many chapters have been spent on the 3 daughters of the Uji householder, 2 are disposed of, and the last one has just been discovered in her nunnery by 1 of the 2 protagonists (and the other protagonist suspects). The arc is not over until the would-be nun has been confronted, yet the book ends. Given that Murasaki Shikibu was writing an episodic entertainment for her court friends, and the overall lack of plot, I agree with Seidensticker that the abrupt mid-sentence ending is due either to Shikibu dying or abandoning her tale - not to any sort of deliberate plan.

# Measuring multiple times in a sandglass

How does one make a sand hourglass measure multiple times?

One could just watch it and measure fractions by eye - when a 10-minute timer is down to 1/2, it has measured 5 minutes. One could mark the outside and measure fractions that way.

Or perhaps one could put in two-toned sand - when the white has run out and there’s only black sand, then 5 minutes has passed.

But the sand would inevitably start to mix, and then you just have a 10-minute timer with grey sand. Perhaps some sort of plastic sheet separating them? But it would get messed up when it passes through the funnel.

Then, perhaps the black sand could be magnetically charged positively, and the white sand negatively? But magnetism attracts unlike. If the black is positive and white negative, they’ll clump together even more effectively than random mixing would.

We can’t make a color homogeneous in charge. Perhaps we could charge just black negative, and put positive magnets at the roof and floor? The bias might be enough over time to counteract any mixing effect - the random walk of grains would have a noticeable bias for black. But if the magnet is strong, then some black sand would never move, and if it’s weak, then most of the sand will never be affected; either way, it doesn’t work well.

Perhaps we could make half the black sand positive and half negative, while all white is neutral? Black will clump to black everywhere in the hourglass, without any issues about going through the funnel or affecting white.

How might this fail? Well, why would there be only 2 layers? There could be several alternating layers of black and white, and this be a stable system.

We might be able to remedy this by combining magnetized black sand with magnets on the roof/floor, imparting an overall bias - the layers form, but slowly get compacted together.

The real question is whether strong enough magnetism to usefully sort is also so strong to clump together and defeat the gravity-based timing.

# Measuring social trust by offering free lunches

People can be awfully suspicious of free lunches. I’d like to try a little experiment or stunt sometime to show this. Here’s how it’d go.

I’d grab myself a folding table, make a big poster saying Free Money! $1 or$2 and in fine print, one per person per day. Then, anyone who came up and asked would get $2. Eventually, someone would ask for$1 - they would get it, but be asked first why they declined the larger amount.

I think their answers would be interesting.

Even funner would be giving the $2 as a 2-dollar bill, and not 2 dollar bills. They’re rare enough that it would be quite a novelty to people. # Leaf burgers One thing I was known for in Boy Scouts (or so I thought) was my trick of cooking hamburgers with leaves rather than racks or pans. I had learned it long ago at a campboree, and made a point of cooking my hamburger that way and not any other. The way it works is you take several large green leafs straight from the tree, and sandwich your burger. Ideally you only need 2, one leaf on top and the other on bottom. (I was originally taught using just one leaf, and carefully flipping the burger on top of its leaf, but that’s error prone - one bad flip and your burger is irretrievably dirty and burned.) Then you put your green sandwich on top of a nice patch of coals - no flames! - and flip it in 10 minutes or so. You’ll see it smoke, but not burn. The green leaves themselves don’t want to burn, and the hamburger inside is giving off lots of water, so you don’t need to worry unless you’re overcooking it. At about 20 minutes, the leaves should have browned and you can pull it out and enjoy. What’s the point of this? Well, it saves one dishes. Given how difficult it is to clean dishes out there where there are no dishwashers or sinks, this should not be lightly ignored. It cooks better: much more evenly and with less char or burning of the outside. Given many scouts’ cooking skills, this is no mean consideration either. It’s a much more interesting way to cook. And finally, the hamburger ends up with a light sort of leafy taste on the outside, which is quite good and not obtainable any way else. # Stories ## Priorities Grandma Birch once recounted how uncle Tom had beautiful hair as a child which she refused to allow be cut; one day, Grandad Birch took him to have it cut anyway while she was away. That same day, uncle Tom was playing in the street when a local girl ran into him with her car, hurtling him back up onto the lawn and leaving a scar on his face that one can still see as a dimple. When she returned, she remembers that her chief concern was what had been done to his beautiful hair! ## Things kids say Aunt Sally recounted 2 stories: One of her elementary school colleagues was named Thomas Magwood. She asked him whether anyone had called him Maggy Maggot. He answered yes. She wondered which student. Magwood replied: My granddaughter. Aunt Sally: Thomas, I was not expecting that answer. Another student had lost her father while young, and one day was asking where he had gone. Her mother eloquently spoke of how he now lived on in their hearts and would remain in their house forever. The child acquiesced, and some time later, announced that she had remembered her father’s name. What is it, the mother asked. Quite firmly she replied: Jesus. My parents told me another: a kindergarten acquaintance of mine apparently convinced his parents to let him start hockey, so they buy him a complete set of gear, paying hundreds of dollars and whatnot, register him, get him on a team, and he does well. He begins trailing off, though, and by a year later, he asks if he can drop hockey altogether. His mother asks him why on earth he wants to quit, when he was so enthusiastic about it initially, and he said, but when are we gonna learn how to fight? ## Breakfast My little sister Molly went to Hawkin’s Path Elementary much the same as all of us did. Early on, one morning before classes began, she went to the cafeteria and got on the line for the breakfasts. Pretty much the only people who ate breakfast at Hawkin’s Path were the (very) poor kids who qualified for the Federal free breakfast program. Molly, as it happens, was neither on the list nor had a card. But the lunch lady was new to the job & school, so when her turn came up, she said, I’m Molly! with such straightforwardness and assurance - as though of course that explained everything, who could not know about Molly? - that the flummoxed lady simply gave her a breakfast. Some time later, Molly’s kindergarten teacher Mrs. MacNamara would approach Mom & Dad at a book fair (or something) and shock them by inquiring as to whether Molly qualified for the program. ## On promises When I was in elementary school, another family friend was named Patti, with sons Nick & Joe (the husband was not apparent). They were perhaps middle school aged, but we got along well, I thought. They had an interesting house. It was by the fire station, roughly in the same part of town (Centereach) as my old blue house. That propinquity and Patti’s Dutch heritage explain the original connection, I think. Their (rented) house had a large piece of land, and a U-shaped driveway that went through the front. In the middle was a veritable island-mountain, with a giant pine in the middle. Underneath it was a mass of boulders poking through the thick drifts of needles. I had a Swiss army knife, and delighted in scraping sparks against the stone. Behind the small red house was an orchard in advanced desuetude. I only ever noticed grapes in its arbors. They were purple, I think, and utterly untended. They were bitter - very foxy. The previous owner had loved grapes. Joe was older. He liked video games, I remember. At this time in the 90s, there was only Nintendo & Sega with oddball also-rans like Lynx or Neo-Geo that kids like us scoffed at. The distinction was that Sega was known for its capable hardware and more adult games, but a smaller overall game library, and Nintendo was known for its odd controllers, its 1st-party games, and a large library of games (I understand that the SNES game library would only be surpassed only in the 2000s by the PS2 with its backwards compatibility). Joe was a Sega fan, and a diehard one - he demonstrated to me that he had bought the ill-starred ’Mega-CD and also the poor Sega Saturn, though he had little to play on them but a Sonic the Hedgehog game. One year, we took Nick & Joe with us down south to visit our grandparents & Washington D.C. with our customary visits to the Smithsonian Museum of Natural History and the Air & Space Museum. We stayed at the Birch townhouse in Richmond, Virginia. This was a neighborhood of townhouses, with a genteel air and many pines behind the rows of nigh-identical townhouses. There was a little park not far from us. It wasn’t used much (there were few enough children in the area) and one day Joe and I had gone there - kicked out from the TV and the flat, I recall, by an adult - and were skirmishing & discussing Taekwondo in the silly boastful way kids will who watched too much Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. Joe claimed to know a great deal about the martial arts, but he said he could not teach me; I and Allison were but green belts and not ready. But, he said, in a few years when I had become a brown (or, hazy memory avers, red) belt, then he would teach me. A few years later, I had persevered (Allison had stopped) and reached the agreed-upon rank. But by then Patti had ceased to be a good family friend and the last I heard of Joe was in some military. ## Upsides to child abuse Once, after a meeting of the RIT anime club, I got into a heated argument with another fellow. He and I had a running series of insults and arguments (often centering on how I had a problem with his face). At some point I asserted that there is nothing funny about child abuse! He begged to differ. Very well then, I said, tell me a funny child abuse joke. He craved 5 minutes, which I readily granted. 4 minutes in, he lifted his head from deep in thought and told me the following joke: What’s more fun than beating your child with a board game? I don’t know, what? Beating them with anything else. I paused, and conceded defeat. ## Revealed preferences A teacher of mine, although for the life of me I cannot remember where or whom, once told the class a story about European customs. When he was a younger man, he said, he went to a restaurant in Amsterdam, when a fellow American walked in. She was a beautiful young woman and the teacher noticed her immediately, as did the virile waiters. She walked to one of the bistro’s tables and sat down, clearly expecting to be served. The waiters were greedily looking at her from over in their corner, but made no move. It is the custom, the teacher explained, that in America, the waiter accosts the customer but vice versa in Europe. They were at an impasse. It was amusing, he said - one wanted to be served and the other to serve, but their mutual ignorance frustrated them. The young lady’s impatience boiled over after a score of minutes, and she left, much to the dismay of the waiters. And all for want of a nail. ## Milgram authority experiments Professor Grim tells a story about an acquaintance of his, who had once accepted a job at Yale’s psychology department. He was driving into New Haven on his way to it, when he stopped for gas. The fellow working the station began filling up his car and they fell to chatting. (This was long ago, when such things still happened.) When he mentioned that he was going to his new job there, the attendant stiffened up, removing the gas pump, and retreated into the far side of the garage. Incensed, he followed the attendant and demanded an answer. The attendant eventually stopped the cold shoulder and quietly said that once he had participated in Milgram’s infamous authoritarian experiments, and was one of those who had gone through with it all. And, he added, I have not slept well since. (Grim added in clarification that the entire psychology department was in opprobrium with the New Haven population.) ## One lazy dog Today I noted to my grandfather Gerald Birch that a lot of the most local Marylanders seem to have both pick-up trucks and dogs in the cabs. He told me an anecdote about his cousin Dill’s life was saved by this habit. One day Dill was driving down a road with his dog. For whatever reason, he goes wild into the woods and crashes and is knocked unconscious. His dog, more sensible than he, picked itself up and walked out to the road, where it then sat down and waited. Eventually, some friends of Dill came driving by and recognized the dog instantly. What’s Dill’s dog doing sitting there? they asked one another as they stopped and got out. This led to them going into the woods where they found Dill in his wreck. ## True dreams One curious event, that well illustrates the uncanny hold that coincidences can exert on our minds, is worth recording. One day, I had read part of Frank Herbert’s Dune and run into the word Spannungsbogen - a kind of self-discipline or restraint as Herbert described it. The word had an entry in Wiktionary but the entry lacked sources & examples, and was at risk of deletion. So I went to one of my favorite sources - The New York Times - and searched their archives, found one useful hit (later, I would not remember anything about what the hit said; just that it existed), and listed it on the talk page (since I’m not familiar with Wiktionary conventions and prefer to let the regulars integrate new references into entries). Then I woke up. Some time later, I remembered the dream and thought to myself that I ought to check whether I had not actually added it yesterday and was mis-remembering; I had not - the talk page was devoid of my contribution - but the entry did need work. I then thought it would be amusing to see what the NYT did have, so I went and searched - and found one useful hit. Disquieted, I edited the talk page as in my dream, and moved on. ## On lying and not lying A small gem of omission: An old and somewhat estranged family friend abandoned 2 cats with us when she went to seek her fortune in the West (turned out her brother there was only offering her room because he hoped to get her kidney); the cats lived relatively happily with us until one day, the black one made the fatal mistake of taking a nap behind a wheel. Backing up, my mother ran him over. Yowling, he ran into the garage where we had kept them early on, and in a corner, expired of his injuries. 6 weeks later, the friend called and asked for news of that cat. My mother had previously consulted with her sister on the topic, and replied - very carefully - that We found it dead in the garage. ## Customs Our exchange students all went to St. Anthony’s Highschool, which is 45 minutes away by car and an hour more by circuitous bus, so we all have to wake up very early in the morning: 6 AM for the boys, and earlier for the girls. So when school started for Karl, he had to get up first and then my mother and everyone else wake up later at their respective times. In the first week, he left his toothbrush on the bathroom sink which he shares with my parents, and my mother tidies it up and puts it in the medicine cabinet behind the mirror over the sink where all the dental apparatuses go. The next morning, another (different) toothbrush and another tidying up. And the next morning, again. And again. Finally, my mother decides to talk to Karl, who has run out of his toothbrushes and used up our spare toothbrushes. He looks at her: You mean there was something behind the mirror‽ He had had no idea. ## Hyper-reality So we’re at the local gourmet candy store/chocolate supplies, talking to the Irish guy who runs it about things like chocolate, since my mother did not wish to buy full-sized bunnies, claiming that they were not entirely eaten last year. (Turns out that they make their products with whole chocolate, not cut with additives; this makes it very difficult to prepare because a few degrees too hot or cold and then the chocolate is ruined, compared to regular melting chocolate which can be melted at a temperature anywhere in a range of dozens. But besides tasting better, whole chocolate has a side benefit of the chocolate not spoiling - the chocolate can just sit at room temperature for a few years and still be tasty. He mentioned that once while cleaning up the store, they found a bunny of a sort they hadn’t made for 2 years at that point, and he ate it, and it was tasty.) Then we discussed visiting St. Petersburg and the Netherlands and eventually the conversation turns to our Swedish exchange student Karl and what to get him for Easter. (One of the two volunteers that Swedes eat herring with mustard sauce. I assume at Easter dinner.) We decide to get him a chocolate bunny. But she mentions his reaction to our holidays last Thanksgiving. After all the cleanup was done, Karl Skyped with his mother back in Sweden. First thing she asks him is: So, was it like it is in the movies? He replies: Yes! It was exactly like in the movies! ## Lessons While taking a break one night, I went and had fun on the golf cart. During a hard turn, a cousin tumbled off the pickup-style bed on the rear and landed flat on his back, not moving. He couldn’t move his legs initially, and I felt sick to my stomach: there was a fork in my future, and in one set of worlds, life continued much as before - and that was good, better than I had appreciated before - and in the other, this night disappeared in a haze of red lights and ambulances and I was the reckless black sheep who had paralyzed his cousin and every time I saw him in his wheelchair I would feel sick with guilt. Slowly he recovered and finally he wiggled his toes. The wind had been knocked out of him by a deveel of a landing. It were well that fear & shame felt so sickening, else we should forget our lessons too quickly. ## Food relativity On a vacation in Cape Cod in New England, my aunt once went to a lobster & clam bake, heavy on the lobsters since lobsters were at that time unusually cheap & abundant. I am only familiar with eating broiled Chesapeake Bay crabs, which is a fairly gruesome process which not everyone is able to do and still eat the results (with soft-shell crabs being even more so), but I gather the lobsters are pretty whole, like the crabs. To my aunt’s surprise, she discovered her lobster was somewhat unusual. The locals looked over and said that it was lucky and she should eat it. She hesitated, and seeing this, they starting chanting: Eat the babies! Eat the babies! Eat the babies! Shocked, she put them aside and ate something else. ## Elder tales My uncle & aunt occasionally take visits at a small town named Clearwater or some such to visit his grandmother; he has an interest in history due to his job, and so he sometimes listens to stories or solicits oral histories. Before Christmas, he told us two stories. The first story was told by the longest-standing member of the local parish, who had moved to the parish in the 1910s. Her father was a railroad conductor on a route running through Clearwater from a further city and Chicago. It was a long shift indeed, and being a conductor did not pay well, and neither were there railroad restaurants on his train nor were there convenient fast-food restaurants in those days. So what did he do? Well, he would pick up his dinner as they passed through Clearwater from his family: cheap fresh food. But the train didn’t stop! So how did they manage this? Her mother would send her out to the train station with his dinner in a pail at 11PM sharp, and as the train thundered through the station on its way to Chicago, the little girl would lift up the pail and he would lean out of the car and hook it up! If she didn’t lift it high enough or he failed his grab, well, it would be a hungry night for him. The second story concerned an female relative in Iowa who had attained an impressive age. She was good acquaintances with an even older man, who was quite spritely and would drive himself over to spend time with her, even in the dead of Iowa’s winter when it was 15 degrees below zero (Fahrenheit). One night he bid her good night at 10:30PM, and pulled out into the narrow alley between the two houses there, only to find that the alleyway had frozen over with ice. He hit the brakes, which did nothing, and went straight into the powerline pole on the other side of the road. Since it was 15 below, the pole snapped, and took down the neighboring poles as well and the electricity went out. Fortunately, the phones still worked, so the man was able to call his son to come pick him up. As the two argued, the rest were able to overhear the irate son: Dammit Dad! I’m 78 years old, I shouldn’t have to pick up my 101-year-old father after he wrecks his car at night! ## De gustibus non est disputandum When strangers meet, great allowance should be made for differences of custom and training.Heretics of Dune So my grandparents were deployed to Germany with the Army back in the ’50s or ’60s so, when my aunt was a little girl. She had two friends, one an American Army brat like her, and another was a upper-class German girl. The brat’s favorite food in the world was cheeseburgers. She loved them and putting those prepackaged American cheese slices on them. As it happens, the German girl’s family had a dog and every time she fed the dog, she would get out a slice of American cheese and put it on top of the kibble, to encourage the dog to eat; but that was apparently all they did with that cheese. (I don’t blame her: I used to like sliced American cheese too, but eventually I realized it was pretty disgusting. No doubt the Germans had access to much tastier cheeses.) One day the German girl goes over to her friend’s house, and they have dinner. Since the friend was having a guest over, of course everyone ate her favorite food! The german girl sees what she’s being served, and goes Dog food‽ You’re feeding me dog food She was completely insulted at being served dog crap, and her friend was completely insulted that her favorite food had been called dog crap. It took a while for them to reconcile, apparently. You know how little girls are with their feuds. This story reminds me of the old Korzybski dog biscuit anecdote, and the European horsemeat scandal - what’s wrong with horsemeat? Apparently to the British, it’s the most disgusting thing in the world. # Night watch The gloom of dusk. An ox from out in the fields comes walking my way; and along the hazy road I encounter no one. 5 Night watch is not devoid of intellectual interest. The night is quite beautiful in its own right, and during summer, I find it superior to the day. It is cooler, and often windier. Contrary to expectation, it is less buggy than the day. Fewer people are out, of course. My own paranoia surprises me. At least once a night, I hear noises or see light, and become convinced that someone is prowling or seeks to break in. Of course, there is no one there. This is true despite it being my 4th year. I reflect that if it is so for me, then what might it be like for a primitive heir to millennia of superstition? There is a theory that spirits and gods arise from overly active imaginations, or pattern-recognition as it is more charitably termed. My paranoia has made me more sympathetic to this theory. I am a staunch atheist, but even so! The tempo at night varies as well. It seems to me that the first 2 years, cars were coming and going every night. Cars would meet, one would stay and the other go; or a car would enter the lot and not leave for several days (with no one inside); or they would simply park for a while. School buses would congregate, as would police-cars, sometimes 4 or 5 of them. In the late morning around 5 AM, the tennis players would come. Sometimes when I left at 8 AM, all 4 or 5 courts would be busy - and some of the courts hosted 4 players. I would find 5 or 6 tennis balls inside the pool area, and would see how far I could drop-kick them. Now, I hardly ever find tennis balls, since I hardly ever see tennis players. A night in which some teenagers congregate around a car and smoke their cigarettes is a rarity. Few visit my lot. I wonder, does this have to do with the recession which began in 2008? ## Fiction Another year gone by And still no spring warms my heart. It’s nothing to me But now I am accustomed To stare at the sky at dawn. 6 The night has, paradoxically, sights one cannot see during the day. What one can see takes on greater significance, becoming new and fresh. I recall one night long ago; on this cool dark night, the fogs lay heavy on the ground, light-grey and densely soupy. In the light, one could watch banks of fog swirl and mingle in myriads of meetings and mutations; it seemed a thing alive. I could not have seen this under the sun. It has no patience for such ethereal and undefinable things. It would have burned off the fog, driven it along, not permitted it to linger. And even had it existed and been visible, how could I have been struck by it if my field of view were not so confined? One feels an urge to do strange things. The night has qualities all its own, and they demand a reflection in the night watcher. It is strange to be awake and active in the wrong part of the day, and this strangeness demands strangeness on one’s own part. Often when doing my rounds I have started and found myself perched awkwardly on a bench or fence. I stay for a time, ruminating on nothing in particular. The night is indefinite, and my thoughts are content to be that way as well. And then something happens, and I hop down and continue my rounds. For I am the sole inhabitant of this small world. The pool is bounded by blackened fences, and as it lies prostrate under tall towers bearing yellowed flood-lights. The darkness swallows all that is not pool, and returns a feeling of isolation. As if nothing besides remains. I circumnambulate to recreate the park, to assure me it abides, that it is yet there to meet my eyes - a sop to conscience, a token of duty; an act of creation. I bring the morning. # Two cows: philosophy Philosophy two-cows jokes: Free will: you have 2 cows; in an event entirely independent of all previous events & predictions, they devour you alive; this makes no sense as cows are herbivores, but you are no longer around to notice this. Fatalism: you have 2 cows; whether they survive or not is entirely up to the inexorable and deterministic course of the universe, and what you do or not likewise, so you don’t feed your cows and they starve to death; you reflect that the universe really has it in for you. Compatibilism: you have 1 cow which is free and capable of making decisions, and 1 cow that is determined and bound to follow the laws of physics; they are the same cow. But you get 2 cows’ worth of milk anyway. Existentialism: You have two cows; one is a metaphor for the human condition. You kill the other and in bad faith claim hunger made you do it. Ethics: You have two cows, and as a Utilitarian, does it suit the best interests of yourself and both cows to milk them, or could it be said that the interests of yourself, as a human, come above those of the cows, who are, after all, inferior to the human race? Aristotle would claim that this is correct, although Peter Singer would disagree. Sorites: you have 2 cows who produce a bunch of milk; but if you spill a drop, it’s still a bunch of milk; and so on until there’s no more milk left. Obviously it’s impossible to have a bunch of milk, and as you mope over how useless your cows are, you die of thirst. Nagarjuna: You have 2 cows; they are empty, of course, since they are dependent on grass; you milk them and get empty-milk (dependent on the cow), which tastes empty; you sell them both and go get some real cows. Moo mani hum Descartes: You have 2 cows, therefore you are (since deceive me howbeit the demon may, he can never make it so that I have 2 cows yet am not); further, there are an infinite # of 2-cows jokes, and where could this conception of infinity have come from but God? Therefore he exists. You wish you had some chocolate milk. Bentham: no one has a natural right to anything, since that would be 2 cows walking upon stilts; everything must be decided by the greatest good for the greatest number; you get a lobotomy and spend the rest of your life happily grazing with your 2 cows. Tocqueville: Cows are inevitable, so we must study the United Cows of America; firstly, we shall take 700 pages to see how this nation broke free of the English Mooarchy, and what factors contributes to their present demoocracy… Gettier: You see 2 cows in your field - actually, what you see is 2 cow-colored mounds of dirt, but there really are 2 cows over there; when you figure this out, your mind is blown and >2000 years of epistocowlogy shatters. Heidegger: dasein dasein apophantic being-in cow being-in-world milk questioning proximate science thusly Man synthesis time, thus, 2 cows. Husserl: You have 2 cows, but do you really see them? # Waking up In neuroscience, there’s a model of consciousness called the workspace model. The idea is that the various modules in the brain, like the auditory or visual or long-term memory modules normally operate on their own, doing their things, predicting & perceiving what they can; but sometimes something goes wrong: the predictions are suddenly all wrong, or there’s unusual & urgent input. The modules panic and emit a summary of the situation over to the single global workspace, where it sits side by side with all the other summaries, and the slow linear prefrontal cortex ponders all the situations & weighs their importance (perhaps issuing some requests to various memories) & sends out orders. In other words, one is only conscious when there is conflict between modules; otherwise, one is unconscious and the modules continue their work. When carrying a dish from the kitchen to the table, one is largely unconscious - one isn’t really thinking, one can’t remember much, because not much is happening in consciousness. But if the plate is burning hot? Then all of a sudden there is conflict: the arm neurons are frantically trying to execute the flinch reflex, another part is frantically saying don’t drop it we’re almost there! and the multiple summaries arrive in consciousness, one suddenly wakes up and decides to drop it or not to drop it, and the deed is done. Why do people ride roller-coasters? Why do they go into haunted houses? They say it makes them feel alive, that it’s vivid and unusual, that it’s very exciting.. That it wakes them up. http://www.rifters.com/crawl/?p=791 # Full Metal Alchemist TODO: there’s some general essay I could write about FMA, especially the manga versus anime+movie What do you think about Mustang using the philosopher’s stone entirely to get his vision back? Kosher. Mustang didn’t ask to see the Gate, and that stone would otherwise have been wasted. He didn’t merit his punishment. About him not taking the seat as the fuhrer? With the corrupt establishment toppled, there’s no longer any compelling reason for him to be fuhrer. Indeed, his personal failings may mean that it’s better for him to not be fuhrer. (What would he do?) Ed transmuting the literal gate to break the rules? That wasn’t rule-breaking; that was awesome. It was tremendously satisfying. One of FMA’s running themes was the narrowness of those interested in alchemy. They were interested in it, in using it, in getting more of it. Obviously folks like Shou Tucker or Kimbly sold their soul for alchemy, but less obviously, the other alchemists have been corrupted to some degree by it. Even heroes like Izumi or the Elrics transgressed. Consider Mustang; his connection with Hawkeye was alchemy-based, and only after years did the connection blossom. Consider how little time he spent with Hughes, in part due to his alchemy-based position. Mustang didn’t learn until Hughes was gone just how much his friends meant. Similarly, Greed. His epiphany at the end hammers in the lesson about the value of friends. How did he lose his friends? By pursuit of alchemy-based methods of immortality. That is why Ed was the real hero. Because he realized the Truth of FMA: your relationships are what really matter. No alchemist ever escaped the Gate essentially intact before he did. Why? Because it would never even occur to them to give up their alchemy or what they learned at the Gate. Have you ever heard of a monkey trap made of a hole and a collar of spikes sticking down? The monkey reaches in and grabs the fruit inside, but his fist is too big to pass back out. If only the stupid monkey would let go of the fruit, he could escape. But he won’t. And then the hunter comes. The alchemists are the monkey, alchemy is the fruit, and the Truth is the hunter. The monkeys put the fruit above their lives, because they think they can have it all. Ed doesn’t. Were there things I disliked? Yes, the whole god thing struck me as strange and ill-thought out. I also disliked the mechanism for alchemy - some sort of Earth energy. I thought that the movie’s idea that alchemy was powered by deaths in an alternate Earth to really fit the whole theme of Equivalent Exchange - TANSTAAFL. It’s good that the Amestrian alchemy turns out to be powered by human sacrifice (TANSTAAFL), but that turns out to be due to the Father character blocking the real alchemy, and so, non-Amestrian alchemy turns out to be a free lunch! # Fake explanation of cats gwern> I often think that cat psychology is harder than dog psychology gwern> then I reflect that dogs have co-evolved with us for much longer than cats, and dogs have bigger brains as well cwillu> no, the dominance hierarchy is firmly established gwern> so maybe I only think I understand dogs gwern> perhaps under the evolved tricks like eye-following or pointing-understand lies a psychology as or more alien than cats gwern> *pointing-understanding AngryParsley> cat psychology is that they do whatever the hell they want fake explanation ^ <http://lesswrong.com/lw/ip/fake_explanations/> # Let’s nuke Africa w/r/t existential threats, when is it a better idea to bomb failed nations/continents back to the stone age? http://lesswrong.com/lw/1qf/the_craigslist_revolution_a_realworld_application/1lud?c=1 The absence of rule of law, democratic checks on the military, continual conflict and overall incompetence also increases the chances lab error or misuse of high tech weaponry as technology become more accessible while social, economic and political conditions do not improve. I just had a fun idea: take this premise, and the demonstrated difficulty of improving Africa, and the idea that the development vs. likeliness-to-screw-everybody-over-with-WMDs curve would be an inverted U, and calculate the point at which it would be better to cut off all aid & begin bombing Africa into (or within) the Stone Age. There a high moral cost to beginning bombing Africa. There is no moral cost by definition; at the point at which we would want to start bombing, the immoral thing is to not bomb. We’ve bombed many countries for far less than existential threats (arguably, every US bombing campaign back to WWII). Further, I think you drastically overestimate the chances of homegrown terrorism. Vietnam was long ago. Reports like millions of Iraqi refugees or hundreds of thousands of excess Iraqi deaths merely spark muted partisan arguments about whether the Lancet’s statistics are right or not. It’s a long way to Tipperary. The Global economy would tailspin and the existential risk situation would get a lot worse as a result. I think you badly overestimate how important Africa is. Even assuming resources cannot be extracted while also bombing the place, Africa isn’t that important. The continental GDP is just 2.7 trillion. Several percent of that is foreign aid (Economy of Africa) and their exports to the rest of the world are small enough that their balance of payments (with the rest of the world) is negative by billions (http://www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/en/data-statistics/). Now, if Africa disappeared or was suddenly destroyed, I would expect the global financial markets to drop considerably; but they are so skittish they drop at the fall of a hat. The long-term economic impact wouldn’t be so bad outside of commodities like coltan. Certainly not so bad as some grey goo getting loose. (I’d count things like AIDS as further debits to Africa, but obviously that’s a sunk cost as far as this suggestion is concerned.) # Geneva culinary crimes tribunal King Krryllok stated that Crustacistan had submitted a preliminary indictment of Gary Krug, the butcher of Boston, laying out in detail his systematic genocide of lobsters, shrimp, and others conducted in his Red Lobster franchisee; international law experts predicted that Krug’s legal team would challenge the origin of the records under the poisoned tree doctrine, pointing to news reports that said records were obtained via industrial espionage of Red Lobster Inc. When reached for comment, Krug evinced confusion and asked the reporter whether he would like tonight’s special on fried scallops # Multiple interpretations theory of humor My theory is that humor is when there is a connection between the joke & punchline which is obvious to the person in retrospect, but not initially. Hence, a pun is funny because the connection is unpredictable in advance, but clear in retrospect; Eliezer’s joke about the motorist and the asylum inmate is funny because we were predicting some other response other than the logical one; similarly for why did the duck cross the road? to get to the other side is not funny to someone who has never heard any of the road jokes, but to someone who has and is thinking of zany explanations, the reversion to normality is unpredicted. Your theory doesn’t work with absurdist humor. There isn’t initially 1 valid decoding, much less 2. Mm. This might work for some proofs - Lewis Carroll, as we all know, was a mathematician - but a proof for something you already believe that is conducted via tedious steps is not humorous by anyone’s lights. Proving P/=NP is not funny, but proving 2+2=3 is funny. A man walks into a bar and says Ow. How many surrealists does it take to change a lightbulb? Two. One to hold the giraffe, and one to put the clocks in the bathtub. Exactly. What are the 2 valid decodings of that? I struggle to come up with just 1 valid decoding involving giraffes and bathtubs; like the duck crossing the road, the joke is the frustration of our attempt to find the connection. # Mr. T(athagata) idea: Mr. T as modern Bodhisattva. He remains in the world because he pities da fools trapped in the Wheel of Reincarnation. # Lip reading website As far as I can tell, there is no free resource for learning how to lip read, much less free online resources. Learning to lip read is basically: 1. watch a video with obscured audio 2. guess what you think they said 3. be corrected 4. go to #1 This is eminently doable as a website: YouTube for hosting videos, Amazon Mechanical Turk or similar services for generating Free videos, and perhaps a SRS algorithm for scheduling periodic reviews videos of particular words or sentences. Lip reading is useful to know. There are roughly 28 million people in the US with hearing issues and as the Baby Boomers age and lose hearing, many will want to learn; estimates of Baby Boomers who will have any degree of hearing loss range from 20-60%. See: For older Americans, the rate is 63%. Nor is the loss limited to Baby Boomers; a report in the August 2010 issue of the American Medical Association estimated that over the 15 years from 1995 to 2010, teen hearing loss rate increased 30%7, to a total of all teens with detectable hearing loss of 19.5% of 12-19 year olds (and a similar increase in the number with mild hearing loss).8 The small industry of lip reading and the international scattering of lip reading classes shows that people will pay hundreds of dollars and go places to learn it. ## Costs Optimistically, one-time >100$ for content, 20$/ month then on, and a substantial time investment in putting together a site and a process for acquiring or creating video. ### Technical #### Hosting Assuming videos are hosted on YouTube or Amazon S3, the website would require extremely little bandwidth and accommodate >1000 users at ~20$ a month:

Assume a webpage requires 100KB to be loaded (very pessimistic), and that a user spends 1 hour a day using the website (30 hours a month), going to a new page every minute. That user will use $100\mathrm{\text{KB}}×\left(30×60\right)$, or 180000KB, or 180MB of bandwidth. Linode’s cheapest offering at $20/month pays for 200GB of bandwidth; $\frac{200\mathrm{\text{GB}}}{180\mathrm{\text{MB}}}$ = 1112 users. A domain name costs ~$10 a year, or ~$1 a month. More reasonable would be assuming 10KB per pageload, and 10 hours a month, cutting the per-user bandwidth down to $10×10×60$, or 6MB, and assuming fewer than 1000 users; then hosting could be even cheaper. DreamHost is known for screwing over its more-demanding customers, but should be reliable enough here; their hosting is$9 a month.

#### Coding

Obviously a site custom-made for lip reading & very user-friendly doesn’t exist. I’d have to code one or reuse some framework, though offhand I don’t know of any really suited for the task. It’d be a big coding task - at least dozens of hours to learn the specific technologies and build a prototype. But then, I can’t really count my own time as a cost - I’d just spend the time reading elsewise.

### Marketing

Unknown. These sorts of sites seem to do best with word of mouth marketing, so who knows? Maybe just time.

The content is the wildcard. There are a couple possible sources:

• There’s a cottage industry of books and occasional CDs/DVDs, whose copyright obviously would be far too expensive to purchase.
• Hiring professionals to make lip movements also is obviously right out. To make it worth their while and to get at least 10 hours of material would take thousands of dollars.
• Online freelancing sites. I have a theory that one doesn’t want professionals because one intends to use lip reading in real life, to read the lips of the amateurs one interacts with.
• I mentioned Mechanical Turk, but that may not be appropriate; many Turkers do not have cameras or webcams, and it may not be doable to ask them to submit videos through Amazon, but Turkers could definitely be used to verify that the person in a clip is saying the things they are supposed to say. (This would cost ~10¢ per review, and usually one double-checks with multiple Turkers, so 20¢ a clip.)
• Other freelancing sites like guru.com list video/photo people working for $20-40 an hour. I figure that means that amateurs in both department will be no more than half that,$10/hour. 10 hours of content then would be ~$100. ## Revenue Ads, obviously. A competitor would be lipreading.com; so that’s a reasonable starting point. With zero effort at doing anything other than selling a DVD, some estimates of its ad revenue are 44¢ to$2.22 a day. At hosting costs of $21 a month or <75¢ a day, the site could at least pay its on-going expenses. # Venusian Revolution "Venus is a great example. It does pretty well in the equation, and actually gets a value of about one and a half quadrillion dollars if you tweak its reflectivity a bit to factor in its bright clouds. This echoes what unfolded for Venus in the first half of the 20th century, when astronomers saw these bright clouds and thought they were water clouds, and that it was really humid and warm on the surface. It gave rise to this idea in the 1930s that Venus was a jungle planet. So you put this in the formula, and it has an explosive valuation. Then you’d show up and face the reality of lead melting on the surface beneath sulfuric-acid clouds, and everyone would want their money back! If Venus is valued using its actual surface temperature, it’s like 10-12 of a single cent. @home.com was valued on the order of a billion dollars for its market cap, and the stock is now literally worth zero. Venus is unfortunately the @home.com of planets. It’s tragic, amazing, and extraordinary, to think that there was a small window, in 1956, 1957, when it wasn’t clear yet that Venus was a strong microwave emitter and thus was inhospitably hot. The scientific opinion was already going against Venus having a clement surface, but in those years you could still credibly imagine that Venus was a habitable environment, and you had authors like Ray Bradbury writing great stories about it. At the same time, the ability to travel to Venus was completely within our grasp in a way that, shockingly, it may not be now. Think what would have happened, how history would’ve changed, if Venus had been a quadrillion-dollar world, we’d have had a virgin planet sitting right next door. Things would have unfolded in an extremely different way. we’d be living in a very different time." –Greg Laughlin, interviewed in Cosmic Commodities: How much is a new planet worth? Sounds like a good alternate history novel. The space race heats up in the 1950s, with a new planet at stake. Of course, along the lines of Peter Thiel’s reasoning about France & John Law & the Louisiana Territory, the winner of such a race would probably suffer the winner’s curse. (Don’t go mine for gold yourself; sell pick-axes to the miners instead.) # Pseudonymity Gwern Branwen is the pseudonym I use to traffick online; I was long paranoid and sought to cleanly separate my online and offline life. (With the exception of commercial transactions - I didn’t particularly mind if Amazon.com was able to link my credit card under my real name with my email account.) This was a good idea because I picked up the occasional online enemy who could annoy me. As Maru Dubshinki, I made an enemy of Daniel Brandt; and more recently, there was an attempted harassment of me in real life, /b/-style, over Neil Gaiman’s Scientology connections which failed miserably when their investigation dead-ended at calling up RIT and asking whether a Gwern Branwen happened to work there. Which of course he did not. My biggest mistake, when I still cared about solid pseudonymity, was occasionally joining the #wikipedia IRC channel without my IRC cloak and thereby exposing my IP address; Daniel Brandt was able to narrow me to someone living in Suffolk County, New York. So, I had always expected a break in my pseudonymity to come from the online direction. I hadn’t expected it to come from the other direction. Then one day in 2008 or 2009, it did… I was idling in #wikipedia, discussing Wikipedia matters, as one does on the weekend, when Andrew Garrett and Jennifer Boriss (homepage) happened to also be hanging out with my older sister at Carnegie-Mellon; they fell to discussing Wikipedia and she mentioned that her younger brother did an awful lot of Wikipedia editing (as I do), and Boriss inquired as to who I was when I was not at home. It was some strange nickname she couldn’t remember. But she did remember that I frequently edited Japanese literature articles and the nick started with g or something. (I’m particularly proud of Fujiwara no Teika, incidentally.) Well, she says, I don’t know many Japanese literature editors; but I do chat with this guy named Gwern on IRC who does a lot of that sort of thing. That’s it!, my sister says (as she casually destroys my pseudonymity), the odd nickname was Gwern. They both have a good laugh about what a small world it is, and then they go on IRC and knock me for a loop by guessing personal details until they finally reveals that my hot sister is there providing information. And of course since my sister now works in San Francisco, and Garrett is a PHP developer contracted to the Wikimedia Foundation & Boriss a developer for the Mozilla Foundation (both headquartered in or near SF), she or he occasionally visits & stays with my sister and I have to hear about it online from them. Oy vey. # Efficient natural language A single English character can be expressed (in ASCII) using a byte, or ignoring the wasted high-order bit, a full 7 bits. But English is pretty predictable, and isn’t using those 7 bits to good effect. Claude Shannon found that each character was carrying more like 1 bit of unguessable information9; Hamid Moradi found 1.62-2.28 bits on various books10, and Cover came up with 1.3 bits11. In practice, existing algorithms can make it down to just 2 bits to represent a character, and theory suggests the true entropy was around 0.8 bits per character.12 (This, incidentally implies that the highest bandwidth human speech can attain is around 55 bits per second.13) Languages can vary in how much they convey in a single word - ancient Egyptian conveying ~7 bits per word and modern Finnish around 10.414 (and word ordering adding another at least 3 bits over most languages); but we’ll ignore those complications. Whatever the true entropy, it’s clear existing English spelling is pretty wasteful. How many characters could we get away with? We could ask, how many bits does it take to uniquely specify 1 out of, say, 100,000 words? Well, n bits can uniquely specify 2n items; we want at least 100,000 items covered by our bits, and as it happens, 217 is 131072, which gives us some room to spare. (216 only gives us 65536, which would be enough for a pidgin or something.) We already pointed out that a character can be represented by 7 bits (in ASCII), so each character accounts for 7 of those 17 bits. 7+7+7 > 17, so 3 characters. In this encoding, one of our 100,000 words would look like AxC (and we’d have 30,000 unused triplets to spare). That’s not so bad. But as has often been pointed out, one of the advantages of our verbose system which can take as many as 9 characters to express a word like advantage is that the waste also lets us understand partial messages. The example given is a disemvoweled sentence: y cn ndrstnd Nglsh txt vn wtht th vwls. Word lengths themselves correspond roughly to frequency of use15 or average information content.16 The answer given when anyone points out that a compressed file can be turned to nonsense by a single error is that errors aren’t that common, and the natural redundancy is very inefficient in correcting for errors17, and further, while there are some reasons to expect languages to have evolved towards efficiency, we have at least 2 arguments that they may yet be very inefficient: 1. natural languages differ dramatically in almost every way, as evidence by the difficulty Chomskyians have in finding the deep structure of language; for example, average word length differs considerably from language to language. (Compare German and English; they are closely related, yet one is shorter.) And specifically, natural languages seem to vary considerably in how much they can convey in a given time-unit; speakers make up for low-entropy syllables by speaking faster (and vice-versa), but even after multiply the number of syllables by rate, the languages still differ by as much as 30%18. 2. speakers may prefer a concise short language with powerful error-detecting and correction, since speaking is so tiring and metabolically costly; but listeners would prefer not to have to think hard and prefer that the speaker do all the work for them, and would thus prefer a less concise language with less powerful error-detection and correction19 One interesting natural experiment in binary encoding of languages is the Kele language; its high and low tones add 1 bit to each syllable, and when the tones are translated to drumbeats, it takes about 8:1 repetition: Kele is a tonal language with two sharply distinct tones. Each syllable is either low or high. The drum language is spoken by a pair of drums with the same two tones. Each Kele word is spoken by the drums as a sequence of low and high beats. In passing from human Kele to drum language, all the information contained in vowels and consonants is lost…in a tonal language like Kele, some information is carried in the tones and survives the transition from human speaker to drums. The fraction of information that survives in a drum word is small, and the words spoken by the drums are correspondingly ambiguous. A single sequence of tones may have hundreds of meanings depending on the missing vowels and consonants. The drum language must resolve the ambiguity of the individual words by adding more words. When enough redundant words are added, the meaning of the message becomes unique. …She [his wife] sent him a message in drum language…the message needed to be expressed with redundant and repeated phrases: White man spirit in forest come come to house of shingles high up above of white man spirit in forest. Woman with yam awaits. Come come. Carrington heard the message and came home. On the average, about eight words of drum language were needed to transmit one word of human language unambiguously. Western mathematicians would say that about one eighth of the information in the human Kele language belongs to the tones that are transmitted by the drum language.20 With a good FEC, you can compress and eat your cake too. Exactly how much error we can detect or correct is given by the Shannon limit: $\frac{\mathrm{\text{channelCapacity}}}{1-\left(-\left(\mathrm{\text{mistakeRate}}×lo{g}_{2}\left(\mathrm{\text{mistakeRate}}\right)+\left(1-\mathrm{\text{mistakeRate}}\right)×lo{g}_{2}\left(1-\mathrm{\text{mistakeRate}}\right)\right)\right)}$ If we suppose that each word is 3 characters long, and we get 1 error every 2 words on average, our channel capacity is 6 characters’ of bits (or 7*6, or 42), and our mistake rate 1/6 of the characters (or 7/42), substituting in we get: $\frac{42}{1-\left(-\left(\frac{1}{6}×lo{g}_{2}\left(\frac{1}{6}\right)+\left(1+\frac{1}{6}\right)×lo{g}_{2}\left(1-\frac{1}{6}\right)\right)\right)}$ Or in Haskell, we evaluate (using logBase because log is the natural logarithm, not the binary logarithm used in information theory): 42 / 1 - (-(1/6 * logBase 2 (1/6) + (1 - 1/6) * logBase 2 (1 - 1/6))) Which evaluates to ~41. In other words, we started with 42 bits of possibly corrupted information, assumed a certain error rate, and asked how much could we communicate given that error rate; the difference is whatever we had to spend on ECC - 1 bit. Try comparing that to a vowel-scheme. The vowel would not guarantee detection or correction (you may be able to decade he st as he sat, but can you decode he at correctly?), and even worse, vowels demand an entire character, a single block of 7/8 bits, and can’t be subtly spread over all the characters. So if our 2 words had one vowel, we just blew 7 bits of information on that and that alone, and if there were more than 1 vowel… Of course, the Shannon limit is the theoretical asymptotic ideal and requires complex solutions humans couldn’t mentally calculate on the fly. In reality, we would have to use something much simpler and hence couldn’t get away with devoting just 1 bit to the FEC. But hopefully it demonstrates that vowels are a really atrocious form of error-correction. What would be a good compromise between humanly possible simplicity and inefficiency (compared to the Shannon limit)? I don’t know. The existence of similar neuronal pathways across languages & cultures for reading suggests that there could be hard limits on what sorts of languages can be efficiently understood - for example, characters in all alphabets taking on average taking 3 strokes to write. Richard Hamming, who invented much of the early error-correcting codes, once devised a scheme for IBM (similar to the ISBN check-digit); number letters or characters from 1 to 37, and add them all up modulo 37, which is the new prefix to the word. This checksum handles what Hamming considered the most common human errors like repeating or swapping digits.21 A related idea is encoding bits into audible words which are as phonetically distant as possible, so a binary string (such as a cryptographic hash) can be spoken and heard with minimum possibility of error; see PGP word list or the 32-bit Mnemonic encoder scheme. # A Bitcoin+BitTorrent-driven economy for creators (Artcoin) One criticism of the Bitcoin system by cryptographers & commenters is that the fundamental mechanism Bitcoin uses to prevent double-spends is requiring proof-of-work (finding certain very rare random numbers, essentially) for each set of transactions to make it hard for anyone to put together enough computers to be able to find multiple valid sets of transactions and spend the same coin twice. (People are motivated to actually do the proofs-of-work since when they discover a valid set of transactions, the protocol allows them to invent 50 coins for themselves.) The computing power applied to the problem is nontrivial: it is literally equivalent to a supercomputer, distributed among the various participants. But this is a supercomputer which is devoted solely to calculating some numbers which satisfy a completely arbitrary criteria. Yes, it works - Bitcoin is still around and growing. But can’t the situation be improved? Even distributed computing projects like Folding@home do some good; even the distributed cryptographic projects did some good by proving points about the insecurity of various algorithms. After all, checking random numbers has the necessary property of being hard to figure out and easy to check, but this sounds like the P vs NP problem - and that’s so interesting because countless real-world economically valuable problems possess the same property. Why can’t we take Bitcoin and replace it with a succession of real-world problems suitably encoded? We’ll call it Artcoin. This way we get a secure Bitcoin (because no one can afford to compute multiple solutions) and we also put the computing power to use. Everybody wins. With centralized systems, we could do other things like implement micropayments for BitTorrent (eg. Floodgate: A Micropayment Incentivized P2P Content Delivery Network). Nor are alternate blockchains are not an impossible idea. The Namecoin network is up and running with another blockchain, specialized for registering and paying for domain names. And there’s already a quasi-implementation of Bitcoin micropayments in an amusing hack: Bitcoin Plus. It is a piece of JavaScript that does the SHA-256 mining like the regular GPU miners. The idea is that one includes a link to it on one’s website and then all one’s website visitors’ browsers will be bitcoin mining while they visit. In effect, they are paying for their visit with their computational power. This is more efficient than parasitic computing (although visitors could simply disable JavaScript and so it is more avoidable than parasitic computing), but from the global view, it’s still highly inefficient: JavaScript is not the best language in which to write tight loops and even if browser JavaScript were up to snuff, CPU mining in general is extremely inefficient compared to GPU mining. Bitcoin Plus works because the costs of electricity and computers is externalized to the visitors. Reportedly, CPU mining is no longer able to even pay for the cost of the electricity involved, so Bitcoin Plus would be an example of negative externalities. A good Artcoin scheme should be Pareto-improving. One issue that pops up is how do you input the specific real-world problem into the Artcoin network so everyone can start competing to solve it? Perhaps there could be some central authority with a public key that signs each specific problem; everyone downloads it, checks that the signature is indeed valid, and can start trying to solve it. But wait, Bitcoin’s sole purpose was to be a decentralized electronic currency. (No one needs a new centralized electronic currency: you call it Paypal or Stripe or something.) If there was such a central authority in Artcoin, no one would use it! And they would be right to not use it. One little noted property about NP problems is that the exponential blowup in difficulty refers to worst-case problems: one can construct easily solved instances. This means our Artcoin could be rendered completely worthless and vulnerable if the central signer decide to generate and sign an endless stream of trivial problems, at which point any fraudster could double-spend to his heart’s content. If we had some magical way of estimating the difficulty of an arbitrary NP problem, we could devise a hybrid scheme: if the just-released problem is at least 95% difficult, try to solve it; else, just try to solve the old random number problem. Any central authority attempting to water down the proof-of-work security would just see his signed problems ignored in favor of the old inefficient scheme, and so would have no incentive to release non-real-world problems even if a third party (like a government) attempted to coerce them. A more P2P scheme would be to have clients simply verify any solution for a set of transactions, and let anyone supply problems so users can pick which problems they work on. Maybe your mining pool has a SF bent so you donate your collective power to solving SETI@home problems, while my mining pool prefers to work on protein folding problems. But this would seem to run into the same problem as before: how do you know a third mining pool isn’t solving trivial instances it made up for an otherwise perfectly acceptable NP problem? If we had some way of estimating, we could implement this P2P scheme as well: users can subscribe to their favorite charity publishers of problems (or the publisher could pay the solver a sum to incentivize participation), and if any publisher attempted to weaken the system by publishing trivially solved problems, peers would simply reject the problem in favor of a different problem & solution or a hash. How could we measure difficulty? Obviously you could measure difficulty by trying to solve the problem yourself: if it takes 1000 seconds, you know it’s no harder than 1000 seconds. But what good would this do you? You could broadcast a message to all your peers saying these problems are supposed to take at least 20000 seconds to compute, but this only took 1000 seconds! but you have no proof of this; they could do the check themselves so as to reject trivial solutions & their linked sets of transactions, but if peers rechecked work just because some stranger on the Internet cried foul, they’d spend all their time rechecking work and the system would fail. Does this magical way of estimating difficulty exist? I don’t know. I’ve asked, and have been pointed at imperfect predictors: apparently 3-SAT has a curious and well-known spike in difficulty of problems when the total variables divided by number of clauses reaches >=0.5, a phase transition point. A randomly-generated problem can be inspected and predicted with substantial accuracy how difficult it will be: Predicting Satisfiability at the Phase Transition claims to reach classification accuracies of about 70%. SAT-satisfiability prediction is a good step, but still incomplete: a 70% failure rate is far more than necessary to implement double-spend attacks at random just by hoping that several easy instances will be chosen, and it does not forbid offline pre-computing attacks. # Good governance & Girl Scouts # Hard problems in utilitarianism The Nazis believed many sane things, like exercise and the value of nature and animal welfare and the harmful nature of smoking. Possible rationalist exercise: 1. Read The Nazi War on Cancer 2. Assemble modern demographic & mortality data on cancer & obesity. 3. Consider this hypothetical: If the Nazis had not attacked Russia and negotiated a peace with Britain, and remained in control of their territories, would the lives saved by the health benefits of their policies outweigh the genocides they were committing? 4. Did you answer yes, or no? Why? 5. As you pondered these questions, was there ever genuine doubt in your mind? Why was there or not? # Who lives longer, men or women? Do men or women live longer? Everyone knows women live a few years longer; if we look at America and Japan (from the 2011 CIA World Factbook): 1. 75.92 vs 80.93 2. 78.96 vs 85.72 5-7 years additional bulk longevity is definitely in favor of women. But maybe what we are really interested in is whether women have longer effective lives: the amount of time which they have available to pursue those goals, whatever they may be, from raising children to pursuing a career. To take the Japanese numbers, women may live 8.6% longer, but if those same women had to spend 2 hours a day (or 1/12th a life, or 8.3%) doing something utterly useless or distasteful, then maybe one would rather trade off that last 0.3%. But notice how much we had to assume to bring the female numbers down to male: 2 hours a day! That’s a lot. I had not realized how much of a lifetime those extra years represented: it was a larger percentage than I had assumed. The obvious criticism is that social expectations that women appear as attractive as possible will use up a lot of women time. It’s hard to estimate this, but men have to maintain their appearance as well; a random guess would be that men spend half an hour and women spend an hour on average, but that only accounts for a fourth of the extra women time. Let’s say that this extra half hour covers make-up, menstruation, waiting in female bathroom lines, and so on. (This random guess may understate the impact; the pill aside, menstruation reportedly can be pretty awful.) Sleep patterns don’t entirely account for the extra time either; one guide says duration of sleep appears to be slightly longer in females, and Zeo, Inc.’s sleep dataset indicates a difference of women sleeping 19 minutes more on average. If we round to 20 minutes and add to the half hour for cosmetics, we’re still not even half the way. And then there’s considerations like men becoming disabled at a higher rate than women (from the dangerous jobs or manual labor, if for no other reason). Unfortunately, the data doesn’t seem to support this; while women have longer lifespans, they also seem to have more illnesses than men22. Pregnancy and raising children is a possible way to even things out. The US census reports a 2000 figure that 19% of women 40-44 did not have children. So the overwhelming majority of women will at some point bear the burden of at least 1 pregnancy. So that’s 9 months there, and then…? That’s not even 1 year, so a quarter of the time is left over if we assume the pregnancy is a total time-sink but the women involved do not spend any further time on it (but also that the average male expenditure is zero time, which was never true and is increasingly less true as time passes). That leaves a decent advantage for women of ~2 years. If you wanted to erase the female longevity advantage, you could argue that between many women having multiple children, and many raising kids full-time at the expense of their careers or non-family goals, that represents a good decade of lost productivity, and averaging it out (81% of 10 years) reduces their effective lives by 8.1 years, and then taking into account the sleep and toiletry issues reduces the number by another 2 years, and now women lifetimes are shorter than men lifetime. So at least as far as this goes, your treatment of childbearing will determine whether the longevity advantage is simply a fair repayment, as it were, for childbearing and rearing, or whether it really is a gift to the distaff side. # Considerations upon a weekend in July To learn to build sandcastles on the beach is to learn to live and die an atheist. # Poems on the theme of Rurouni Kenshin None remain to see how under the pouring skies, blood runs down the blade None remain to see now, under the pouring skies, blood pooling with rain. Friends & lives are rivers that endlessly flow into the dark sea of death Our lives are rivers that endlessly flow into quiet seas of death With the summer sun my birthday comes, and it goes; and the leftover presents' discarded wrappings remind me of my own fate. # Two poems Papermachine: What zeal! the wild nights spent burning candles, running up mountains, churning through paper. Reply: With such zeal and joy did I burn those wild nights in the candle light, bounding up paper piles and scaling mountains of thought # Chinese Kremlinology I’m not suggesting that any of the news pieces above are false, I’m more worrying about my own ability to be a good consumer of news. When I read about Wisconsin, for example, I have enough context to know why certain groups would portray a story in a certain way, and what parts of the story they won’t be saying. When I’m interested in national (US) news, I know where to go to get multiple main-stream angles, and I know where to go to get fringe analysis. Perhaps these tools don’t amount to much, but I have them and I rely on them. But I really know very little about how news from China gets to me, and it is filtered through a lot more layers than when I read about things of local interest.Antoine Latter It is dangerous to judge a very large and complex country with truly formidable barriers to understanding and internal opacity. As best as I can judge the numbers and facts presented for myself, there are things rotten in Denmark. (The question is whether they are rotten enough.) But at the same time, we can’t afford to buy into the China-as-the-next-threat hype. When I was much younger, I read every book my library had on Japan’s economics and politics, and many online essays & articles & op-eds besides. They were profoundly educational, but not just in the way that their authors had intended - because they were all from the Japan as Number One (Ezra Vogel) / Rising Sun (Michael Crichton) period of the bubble ’80s, and they were profoundly confident about how Japan would rule the world and quite convincing but even as I read them, Japan’s bubble had popped brutally and it continued to stagnate. This dissonance, and my own susceptibility to the authors I had read, was not lost on me. (There was another sobering example from that same period for me - I had read Frank Herbert’s Dune with avidity, thoroughly approving of Paul’s actions; then I read Dune Messiah and some of Herbert’s essays and interviews, only to realize that I had been cheering on a mass murderer and had fallen right into Herbert’s trap - I am showing you the superhero syndrome and your own participation in it.) Years later, I came across Paul Krugman’s The Myth of Asia’s Miracle, which told me about a economic (as opposed to military or geopolitical) parallel to Japan’s ascension that I’d never heard of - Soviet Russia! (And it’s worth noting that one of the other Asian Tigers, South Korea, despite its extraordinary growth and own mini-narratives, is still 3k or so below Japan’s per-capita income.) Ever since I have been curious as to China’s fate (much greater than or comparable total wealth to the US?), skeptical of the optimistic forecasts, and mindful of my own fallibility. Falling into the narrative once, with Japan, is understandable; fool me twice with Soviet Russia, that’s forgivable; fool me three times with China, and I prove myself a fool. # William Carlos Williams so much depends upon a red wheel barrow glazed with rain water beside the white chickens. Have you ever tried to change the oil in your car? Or stared perplexed at a computer error for hours, only for a geek to resolve it in a few keystrokes? Or tried to do yardwork with the wrong tool? (Bare hands rather than a shovel; a shovel rather than a rake, etc.) So much depends on the right tool or the right approach. Think of a man lost in a desert. The right direction is such a trivial small bit of knowledge, almost too small a thing to even be called data. But it means the entire world to that man - the entire world. So much depends on little pieces of metal being 0.451mm wide and not 0.450mm, and on countless other dimensions. (Think of the insides of a jet engine, of thousands of planes and even more tens of thousands of people not falling screaming out of the sky.) Williams is sharing with us, in true Imagist style, a sudden realization, an epiphany in a previously mundane image. Here is a farm. It seems robust and eternal and sturdy. Nothing about this neglected wheelbarrow, glazed with rain and noticed only by fowl, draws our attention - until we suddenly realize how fragile everything is, how much everything has to go right 99.999% of the time, how without a wheelbarrow, we cannot do critical tasks and the whole complex farm ecosystem loses homeostasis and falls apart. (I sometimes have this feeling on the highway. Oh my god! I could die in so many ways right now, with just a tiny movement of my steering wheel or anyone else’s steering wheel! How can I possibly still be alive after all these trips?) # Fermi calculations I really like Fermi problems (LessWrong) - it’s like dimensional analysis for everything outside of physics23. Not only are they fun to think about, they can be amazingly accurate, and are extremely cheap to do - because they are so easy, you do them in all sorts of situations you wouldn’t do a real estimate for, and are a fun part of a physics education. The common distaste for them baffles me; even if you never work through Street-Fighting Mathematics or Hubbard’s How to Measure Anything (some strategies) or read Douglas Hofstadter’s essay On Number Numbness (collected in Metamagical Themas), it’s something you can teach yourself by asking, what information is public available, what can I compare this too, how can I put various boundaries around the true answers24 You especially want to do Fermi calculations in areas where the data is unavailable; I wind up pondering such areas frequently: An entire estimation subreddit is devoted to working through questions like these (it can be quite fun), and of course, there are the memorable what if? xkcd columns. Timothy Gowers suggests a number of problems which might help children really learn how to think with & apply the math they learn. To look further afield, here’s a quick and nifty application by investor John Hempton to the Sino Forestry fraud: Risk management and sounding crazy. What I personally found most interesting about this post was not the overall theme that the whistleblowers were discounted before and after they were proven right (we see this in many bubbles, for example, the housing bubble), but how one could use a sort of Outside View/Fermi calculation to sanity-check the claims. If Sino Forestry was really causing 17m cubic meters of wood to be processed a year, where was all the processing? This simple question tells us a lot. With medicine, there is one simple question one can always ask too - where is the increased longevity? (This is an important question to ask of studies, such as a recent caloric restriction study.) Simple questions and reasoning can tell us a lot. # Politicians are not unethical Dominique Strauss-Khan, while freed of the charge of rape, stands convicted in the court of public opinion as an immoral philanderer; after all, even by his account he cheated on his wife with the hotel maid, and he has been accused in France by a writer of raping her; where there is smoke there is fire, so Khan has probably slept with quite a few women25. This is as people expect - politicians sleep around and are immoral. Power corrupts. To be a top politician, one must be an risk-taking alpha male reeking of testosterone, to fuel status-seeking behavior.26 And then it’s an easy step to say that the testosterone causes this classically hubristic behavior of ultimately self-destructive streaks of abuse: Toward the end of my two-week [testosterone injection] cycle, I can almost feel my spirits dragging. In the event of a just-lost battle, as Matt Ridley points out in his book The Red Queen, there’s a good reason for this to occur. If you lose a contest with prey or a rival, it makes sense not to pick another fight immediately. So your body wisely prompts you to withdraw, filling your brain with depression and self-doubt. But if you have made a successful kill or defeated a treacherous enemy, your hormones goad you into further conquest. And people wonder why professional football players get into postgame sexual escapades and violence. Or why successful businessmen and politicians often push their sexual luck.Andrew Sullivan, The He Hormone Power corrupts, unconsciously, leading to abuse of power and an inevitable fall - the paradox of power. Such conventional wisdom almost dares examination. Politicians being immoral and sleeping around is a truism - people in general are immoral and sleep around. What’s really being said is that politicians do more immorality and sleeping-around than another group, presumably upper-class27 but still non-politician white men28. ## Revealed moralities But is this true? I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone actually ask this question, much less offer any evidence. It’s a simple question: do white male politicians (and national politicians in particular) sleep around more than upper-class white males in general? It’s easy to come up with examples of politicians who stray paying prostitutes, having a wide stance sending photographs online, possibly to young pages, or impregnating mistresses, but those are anecdotes, not statistics. Consider how many national-level politicians there are that could earn coverage with their infidelities: Congress alone, between the House and the Senate, has 535 members; then one could add in 9 Justices, the President & Vice-president and Cabinet make 17, and then there are the governors of each of the 50 states, for a total of 611 people. ### A priori rates If those 611 were merely ordinary, what would we expect? Lifetime estimates of adultery seem to center around 20%2930 although Kinsey put it at 50% for men. So we might expect 122-305 of the current set of national politicians to be unfaithful eventually! That’s 4-10 sex scandals a year on average (assuming a 30-year career), each of which might be covered for weeks on national TV. I do not know about you, but either end of that range seems high, if anything; it’s not every other month that a politician goes down in flames. (Who went down as scheduled in September or August 2011? No one?) Why does it feel the opposite way, though? We might chalk it up to the base rate fallacy - saying that’s a lot while forgetting what we are comparing to. And 611 is very low an estimate. After all, everyone lives somewhere. The 8 million inhabitants of New York City will read about and be disgusted by the assistant New York Governor, the Mayor of New York City and his flunkies, the New York State legislature (212 members); and then there are the nearby counties like Nassau or Suffolk which are covered by newspapers in circulation in NYC like Newsday. We could plausibly double or triple this figure. (I had not heard of many politicians involved in sex scandals - like Khan, come to think of it - so they do not even need to be famous.) So we have noticed that there are too few sex scandals in politics; the same reasoning seems to work for ordinary crimes like murder - there are too few! In fact, besides Congressmen rarely committing suicide31 (despite the considerable stresses), it seems that politicians in general are uncannily honest; the only category I can think of where politicians are normally unethical would be finance (bribes, conflicts of interest, insider trading by Representatives & Senators, etc). Why is this? ## Why? Self-discipline seems like an obvious key. A reputation is built over decades, and can be destroyed in one instant. But that seems a little too friendly - we’re praising our politicians for morality and we’re also going to claim it’s because they are more disciplined (with all the positive moral connotations)? Maybe the truth is more sinister: they whore around as much as the rest of us, they’re just covering it up better. And we need a cover-up which actually reduces the number of scandals going public to make this all go away and leave our prejudices alone. ## Investigating If all the media was doing was delaying reporting on said scandals, we’d still see the same total number of scandals - just shifted around in time. To some extent, we see delays. For example, we seem to now know a lot about John F. Kennedy’s womanizing, but his contemporaries ignored even a determined attempt to spread the word; similar stories seem true of other Presidents & presidential candidates (FDR & Wendell Wilkie & John Edwards32). This suggests a way to distinguish the permanent cover-up from the delayed cover-up theory: hit the history books and see how many politicians in a political cohort turn out to have mistresses and credible rumors of affairs. Take every major politician from, say 1930, and check into their affairs; how many were then known to have affairs? How many were revealed to have affairs decades later? This will give us the delay figure and let us calculate the shadow scandals, how many sex scandals there ought to be right now but aren’t. (One could probably even automate this. Take a list of politicians from Wikipedia and feed them into Google Books, looking for proximity to keywords like sex/adultery/mistress, etc.) ### Uses The shadow rate is interesting since the mass media audience finds sex scandals interesting to a nauseating degree. (Why does the media spend so much time on something like Weiner? Because it sells.) The shadow rate ought to be negative if anything: there is so much incentive to report on sex scandals one might expect the media to occasionally make up a scandal, on the same principle as William Randolph Hearst and the Spanish-American War - it sells well. Any positive shadow rate shows something very interesting: that the media values the politicians’ interests more than its own, to the point where they are collectively (it only takes one story to start the frenzy) willing to conceal something their customers avidly demand. In other words, the shadow rate is a proxy for how corrupt the media is. # Defining but The word but is pretty interesting. It seems to be short hand for a pretty complex logical argument, which isn’t just modus tollens but something else, in much the same way that natural language’s if-then is not just the material conditional. (Modus tollens, in a quick refresher, is A ~> B, not B, therefore, not A. Its counterpart is modus ponens, A ~> B, A, therefore, B.) Most arguments proceed by repeated modus ponens; this implies that which implies the other, and this is in fact the case, so you must agree with me about the other. It’s fairly rare to try to dispute an argument immediately by denying this but conceding the rest of the argument; instead, one replies with a but. But what? I thought, and I think we could formalize but as a probabilistic modus tollens. Usually we know we’re dealing in slippery probabilities and inductions; if I make an argument about GDP and tax rates, I only get a reliable conclusion if I am not talking about the cooked books of Greece. My conclusion is always less reliable than my premises because probability intervenes at every step: the probability of both A and B must be less than or equal to the probability of either A or B. So, when we argue by repeated modus ponens, what we are actually saying (although we pretend to be using good old syllogisms and deductive logic) is something more like: A implies B; probably A; therefore (less) probably B. When someone replies with But C!, what they are saying is: C implies ~B; both A implies B and C implies ~B cannot be true as it is a contradiction, and C is more likely than A, so we should really conclude that C and ~A, and therefore, ~B. They are setting up an unstated parallel chain of arguments. Imagine a physicist discussing FTL neutrinos; this observation therefore that belief therefore this conclusion that the neutrinos arrived faster than light. And someone speaks up, saying But there was no burst of neutrinos before we saw light from that recent supernova! What is going on here is the audience is weighing the probabilities of two premises, which then work backwards to the causal chains. One might conclude that it is more likely that the supernova observations were correct than the FTL observations were correct, and thus reason with modus tollens about the FTL - FTL-Correct ~> (seeing neutrino burst)33; ~(seeing neutrino burst); therefore, ~FTL-Correct. But if it goes the other way, then one would reason, Seeing-neutrino-burst ~> ~FTL; FTL; therefore, ~Seeing-neutrino-burst. You don’t really find such probabilistic inference in English except in but. Try to explain it without but. Here’s an example: 1. Steve ran by with a bloody sword, but he likes to role-play games so I don’t think he’s a serial killer versus 2. Steve ran by clutching a sword which is consistent with the theory that he is a serial killer and also consistent with the theory that he is role-playing a game; I have a low prior for him ever being a serial killer and a high prior for him carrying a sword, bloody or otherwise, for reasons like role-playing and when I multiply them out, the role-playing explanation has a higher probability than the serial killer explanation I exaggerate a little here; nevertheless, I think this shows but is a little more complex and sophisticated than one would initially suspect.o # Cryonics cluster When one looks at cryonics enthusiasts, there’s an interesting cluster of beliefs. There’s psychological materialism, as one would expect (it’s possible to believe your personal identity is your soul and also that cryonics works, but it’s a rather unstable and unusual possibility), since the mind cannot be materially preserved if it is not material. Then there’s libertarianism with its appeal to free markets and invisible entities like deadweight loss. And then there is ethical utilitarianism, usually act utilitarianism34. They’re often accused of being nerdy and specifically autistic or Asperger’s; with considerable truth. Most have programming experience, or have read a good deal about logic and math and computers. Romain 2010 gives the stereotypical image: Cryonics is a particularly American social practice, created and taken up by a particular type of American: primarily a small faction of white, male, atheist, Libertarian, middle- and upper-middle-income, computer-engineering geeks who believe passionately in the free market and its ability to support technological progress…When I interviewed him, Jerry Lemler, former president of Alcor, claimed that a typical cryonicist is highly educated, white, American, male, well-read, employed in a computer or technical field, not very social, often single, has few or no children, is atheistic or agnostic, and is not wealthy but financially stable. Lemler also told me that cryonicists tend to have very strong Libertarian political views, believing in the rights of the individual and the power of the free market, although Lemler himself is a self-proclaimed bleeding heart Liberal. Less than 25% of Alcor’s members were women, and only a small fraction of these women joined purely out of their own interest; most female Alcor members were the wives, partners, daughters, or mothers of a man who joined first. Lemler also said that cryonicists are highly adventurous, although he added, You may not see that in their current lives. In fact, we have the bookish types, if you will, as I just described. You wouldn’t think that they’d be willing to take a chance on this particular adventure.…Like any group, the cryonics community is by no means uniform in demography, thought, or opinion. The majority of cryonicists I met were, indeed, software or mechanical engineers. But I also encountered venture capitalists, traders, homemakers, a shaman, a journalist, a university professor, cryobiologists, an insurance broker, artificial intelligence designers, a musician, men, women, children, people of color, people in perfect health, and people who were terminally ill. Nevertheless, a sort of Weberian ideal type (Weber 2001[1930]) of the typical cryonicist has emerged, and this is how cryonicists recognize themselves and one another. …In an effort to bring the quite passionate technical discussion to a close, one member made a public aside to me, the anthropologist, loud enough for the benefit of everyone in the room. He said, You know that a typical cryonicist is a male computer programmer, don’t you? Everyone laughed. Another member shouted out, And a Libertarian! Everyone laughed harder. Everyone appeared to enjoy the joke, which seemed to reaffirm the group’s identity and to promote a kind of solidarity among them. The results of one long-running online survey (from the sample size, LessWrongers probably made up <0.5% of the sample); Understanding Libertarian Morality: The Psychological Roots of an Individualist Ideology (as summarized by the WSJ): Perhaps more intriguingly, when libertarians reacted to moral dilemmas and in other tests, they displayed less emotion, less empathy and less disgust than either conservatives or liberals. They appeared to use cold calculation to reach utilitarian conclusions about whether (for instance) to save lives by sacrificing fewer lives. They reached correct, rather than intuitive, answers to math and logic problems, and they enjoyed effortful and thoughtful cognitive tasks more than others do. The researchers found that libertarians had the most masculine psychological profile, while liberals had the most feminine, and these results held up even when they examined each gender separately, which may explain why libertarianism appeals to men more than women. This clustering could be due solely to social networks and whatnot. But suppose they’re not. Is there any perspective which explains this, and cryonic’s hostile wife phenomenon as well? Let’s look at the key quotes about that phenomenon, and a few quotes giving the reaction The authors of this article know of a number of high profile cryonicists who need to hide their cryonics activities from their wives and ex-high profile cryonicists who had to choose between cryonics and their relationship. We also know of men who would like to make cryonics arrangements but have not been able to do so because of resistance from their wives or girlfriends. In such cases, the female partner can be described as nothing less than hostile toward cryonics. As a result, these men face certain death as a consequence of their partner’s hostility. While it is not unusual for any two people to have differing points of view regarding cryonics, men are more interested in making cryonics arrangements. A recent membership update from the Alcor Life Extension Foundation reports that 667 males and 198 females have made cryonics arrangements. Although no formal data are available, it is common knowledge that a substantial number of these female cryonicists signed up after being persuaded by their husbands or boyfriends. For whatever reason, males are more interested in cryonics than females. These issues raise an obvious question: are women more hostile to cryonics than men? …Over the 40 years of his active involvement, one of us (Darwin) has kept a log of the instances where, in his personal experience, hostile spouses or girlfriends have prevented, reduced or reversed the involvement of their male partner in cryonics. This list (see appendix) is restricted to situations where Darwin had direct knowledge of the conflict and was an Officer, Director or employee of the cryonics organization under whose auspices the incident took place. This log spans the years 1978 to 1986, an 8 year period…The 91 people listed in this table include 3 whose deaths are directly attributable to hostility or active intervention on the part of women. This does not include the many instances since 1987 where wives, mothers, sisters, or female business partners have materially interfered with a patient’s cryopreservation(3) or actually caused the patient not to be cryopreserved or removed from cryopreservation(4). Nor does it reflect the doubtless many more cases where we had no idea… …The most immediate and straightforward reasons posited for the hostility of women to cryonics are financial. When the partner with cryonics arrangements dies, life insurance and inheritance funds will go to the cryonics organization instead of to the partner or their children. Some nasty battles have been fought over the inheritance of cryonics patients, including attempts of family members to delay informing the cryonics organization that the member had died, if an attempt was made at all(5). On average, women live longer than men and can have a financial interest in their husbands’ forgoing cryonics arrangements. Many women also cite the social injustice of cryonics and profess to feel guilt and shame that their families’ money is being spent on a trivial, useless, and above all, selfish action when so many people who could be saved are dying of poverty and hunger now…Another, perhaps more credible, but unarguably more selfish, interpretation of this position is what one of us (Darwin) has termed post reanimation jealousy. When women with strong religious convictions who give separation in the afterlife as the reason they object to their husbands’ cryopreservation are closely questioned, it emerges that this is not, in fact, their primary concern. The concern that emerges from such discussion is that if cryonics is successful for the husband, he will not only resume living, he may well do so for a vast period of time during which he can reasonably be expected to form romantic attachments to other women, engage in purely sexual relationships or have sexual encounters with other women, or even marry another woman (or women), father children with them and start a new family. This prospect evokes obvious insecurity, jealousy and a nearly universal expression on the part of the wives that such a situation is unfair, wrong and unnatural. Interestingly, a few women who are neither religious nor believers in a metaphysical afterlife have voiced the same concerns. The message here may be If I’ve got to die then you’ve got to die too! As La Rochefoucauld famously said, with a different meaning in mind, Jealousy is always born with love, but does not always die with it.…While cryonics is mostly a male pursuit, there are women involved and active, and many of them are single. Wives (or girlfriends) justifiably worry that another woman who shares their husbands’ enthusiasm for cryonics, shares his newly acquired world view and offers the prospect of a truly durable relationship - one that may last for centuries or millennia - may win their husbands’ affections. This is by no means a theoretical fear because this has happened a number of times over the years in cryonics. Perhaps the first and most publicly acknowledged instance of this was the divorce of Fred Chamberlain from his wife (and separation from his two children) and the break-up of the long-term relationship between Linda McClintock (nee Linda Chamberlain) and her long-time significant other as a result of Fred and Linda working together on a committee to organize the Third National Conference On Cryonics (sponsored the Cryonics Society of California).35 Going back to Romain 2010, reproduction is also a theorized concern: For many cryonicists, having children is considered an unnecessary diversion of resources that can and should be devoted to the self, especially if one is to achieve immortality. Phil, one of the few cryonicists I know with children, once said to me, They’re good kids. But if their moms hadn’t wanted them, they wouldn’t exist. He did not see much value in passing on genes or creating new generations and preferred to work toward a world in which people no longer need to procreate since the extension of human lifespans would maintain the human species. Indeed, I have heard some in the community theorize that having children is an evolutionary byproduct that could very well become vestigial as humans come closer and closer to becoming immortal. I have also heard several lay theories within the cryonics community about genetic or brain structure differences between men and women that cause men to favor life-extension philosophies and women to favor procreation and the conservative maintenance of cultural traditions…In a very different example, Allison wanted to have children but decided that she will wait until post-reanimation because she was single and in her mid-30s and thus approaching age-related infertility (medicine of the future would also reverse loss of fertility, she assumed). When I suggested that she might freeze her eggs so that she could possibly have genetically related children later in life, she responded that she has too much work to accomplish in the immediate future and would rather wait until she came back to experience parenthood. Eliezer Yudkowsky, remarking on the number of women in one cryonics gathering, inadvertently demonstrates that the gender disparity is still significant: This conference was just young people who took the action of signing up for cryonics, and who were willing to spend a couple of paid days in Florida meeting older cryonicists. The gathering was 34% female, around half of whom were single, and a few kids. This may sound normal enough, unless you’ve been to a lot of contrarian-cluster conferences, in which case you just spit coffee all over your computer screen and shouted WHAT? I did sometimes hear my husband persuaded me to sign up, but no more frequently than I persuaded my husband to sign up. Around 25% of the people present were from the computer world, 25% from science, and 15% were doing something in music or entertainment - with possible overlap, since I’m working from a show of hands. I was expecting there to be some nutcases in that room, people who’d signed up for cryonics for just the same reason they subscribed to homeopathy or astrology, i.e., that it sounded cool. None of the younger cryonicists showed any sign of it. There were a couple of older cryonicists who’d gone strange, but none of the young ones that I saw. Only three hands went up that did not identify as atheist/agnostic, and I think those also might have all been old cryonicists.36 Some female perspectives: Well, as a woman, I do have the exact same gut reaction [to cryonics]. I’d never want to be involved with a guy who wanted this. It just seems horribly inappropriate and wrong, and no it’s nothing to do at all with throwing away the money, I mean I would rather not throw away money but I could be with a guy who spent money foolishly without these strong feelings. I don’t know that I can exactly explain why I find this so distasteful, but it’s a very instinctive recoil. And I’m not religious and do not believe in any afterlife. It’s sort of like being with a cannibal, even a respectful cannibal who would not think of harming anyone in order to eat them would not be a mate I would ever want.37 You have to understand, says Peggy, who at 54 is given to exasperation about her husband’s more exotic ideas. I am a hospice social worker. I work with people who are dying all the time. I see people dying All. The. Time. And what’s so good about me that I’m going to live forever? …Peggy finds the quest an act of cosmic selfishness. And within a particular American subculture, the pair are practically a cliché. Among cryonicists, Peggy’s reaction might be referred to as an instance of the hostile-wife phenomenon, as discussed in a 2008 paper by Aschwin de Wolf, Chana de Wolf and Mike Federowicz.From its inception in 1964, they write, cryonics has been known to frequently produce intense hostility from spouses who are not cryonicists. The opposition of romantic partners, Aschwin told me last year, is something that everyone involved in cryonics knows about but that he and Chana, his wife, find difficult to understand. To someone who believes that low-temperature preservation offers a legitimate chance at extending life, obstructionism can seem as willfully cruel as withholding medical treatment. Even if you don’t want to join your husband in storage, ask believers, what is to be lost by respecting a man’s wishes with regard to the treatment of his own remains? Would-be cryonicists forced to give it all up, the de Wolfs and Federowicz write, face certain death. …Cryonet, a mailing list on cryonics-related issues, takes as one of its issues the opposition of wives. (The ratio of men to women among living cyronicists is roughly three to one.) She thinks the whole idea is sick, twisted and generally spooky, wrote one man newly acquainted with the hostile-wife phenomenon. She is more intelligent than me, insatiably curious and lovingly devoted to me and our 2-year-old daughter. So why is this happening?…A small amount of time spent trying to avoid certain death would seem to be well within the capacity of a healthy marriage to absorb. The checkered marital history of cryonics suggests instead that a violation beyond nonconformity is at stake, that something intrinsic to the loner’s quest for a second life agitates against harmony in the first…But here he doesn’t expect to succeed, and as with most societal attitudes that contradict his intuitions, he’s got a theory as to why. Cryonics, Robin says, has the problem of looking like you’re buying a one-way ticket to a foreign land. To spend a family fortune in the quest to defeat cancer is not taken, in the American context, to be an act of selfishness. But to plan to be rocketed into the future - a future your family either has no interest in seeing, or believes we’ll never see anyway - is to begin to plot a life in which your current relationships have little meaning. Those who seek immortality are plotting an act of leaving, an act, as Robin puts it, of betrayal and abandonment.38 As the spouse of someone who is planning on undergoing cryogenic preservation, I found this article to be relevant to my interests! My first reactions when the topic of cryonics came up (early in our relationship) were shock, a bit of revulsion, and a lot of confusion. Like Peggy (I believe), I also felt a bit of disdain. The idea seemed icky, childish, outlandish, and self-aggrandizing. But I was deeply in love, and very interested in finding common ground with my then-boyfriend (now spouse). We talked, and talked, and argued, and talked some more, and then I went off and thought very hard about the whole thing…Ultimately, my struggle to come to terms with his decision has been more or less successful. Although I am not (and don’t presently plan to be) enrolled in a cryonics program myself, although I still find the idea somewhat unsettling, I support his decision without question. If he dies before I do, I will do everything in my power to see that his wishes are complied with, as I expect him to see that mine are. Anything less than this, and I honestly don’t think I could consider myself his partner.39 To add a data point, I found myself, to put it strongly, literally losing the will to live recently: I’m 20 and female and I’m kind of at the emotional maturity stage. I think my brain stopped saying live! Stay alive! and started saying Make babies! Protect babies!, because I started finding the idea of cryopreserving myself as less attractive and more repulsive (with no change in opinion for preserving my OH), and an increase in how often I thought about doing the right thing for my future kids. To the extent that I now get orders of magnitude more panicked about anything happening to my reproductive system than dying after future children reach adulthood.40 Quentin’s explanation is even more extreme: What follows below is the patchwork I have stitched together of the true female objections to a mate undergoing cryonic suspension. I believe many women have a constant low-level hatred of men at a conscious or subconscious level and their narcissistic quest for entitlement and significance begrudges him any pursuit that isn’t going to lead directly to producing, providing, protecting, and problem solving for her. It would evolutionarily be in her best interest to pull as many emotional and physical levers to bend as much of his energies toward her and their offspring as she can get away with and less away from himself. That would translate as a feeling of revulsion toward cryonics that is visceral but which she dares not state directly to avoid alerting her mate to her true nature. She doesn’t want him to live for decades, centuries, or millennia more in a possibly healthier and more youthful state where he might meet and fall in love with new mates. She doesn’t want her memory in his mind to fade into insignificance as the fraction of time she spent with him since she has died to be a smaller and smaller fraction of his total existence; reduced to the equivalent in his memory of an interesting conversation with a stranger on the sidewalk one summer afternoon. She doesn’t want him to live for something more important than HER. So why not just insist she join him in cryonic suspension? Many of these same wives and girlfriends hate their life even when they are succeeding. Everyone is familiar with the endless complaints, tears, and heartache that make up the vast majority of the female experience stemming from frustration of her hypergamous instinct to be the princess she had always hoped to be and from resentment of his male nature, hopes, dreams, and aspirations. She thinks: He wasn’t sexually satisfying! He isn’t romantic enough! He never took me anywhere! He didn’t pay attention to me! Our kids aren’t successes! We live in a dump! His hobbies are a waste of time and money! My mother always told me I can do better, and his mother will never stop criticizing me! I am fat, ugly, unsuccessful, old, tired, and weary of my responsibilities, idiosyncrasies, insecurities, fears, and pain. My life sucked but at least it could MEAN something to those most important to me. But if they are around for too long it shrinks in importance over time.She wants you to die forever because she hates what you are. She wants to die too, because she hates what she is. She wants us all to die because she hates what the world is and has meant to her. In the same vein: But why not go with him then [into cryonics]? Show me the examples of the men who asked, or even insisted that their wives go with them, and said If you don’t go with me, I won’t go. The fact that men generally don’t do this, is likely a big contributor to the female reaction. Imagine your husband or boyfriend telling you, I just scheduled a 1 year vacation in Pattaya, and since I know you hate Thai food, I didn’t buy you tickets. I’ll remember you fondly. That’s very different from the man who says, I’ve always dreamed of living in Antarctica, but I won’t do it without you, so I’m prepared to spend the next 5 years convincing you that it’s a great idea.41 Indeed, I buy the one way ticket away from here explanation. If I bought a one-way ticket to France, and was intent on going whether my wife wanted to come with me or not, then there would be reason for her to be miffed. If she didn’t want to go, the correct answer is I won’t go without you. But that is not the answer the cryonicist gives to his hostile wife. It’s like the opposite of I would die for you - he actually got a chance to take that test, and failed.42 Robin Hanson tries to explain it in terms of evolutionary incentives: Mating in mammals has a basic asymmetry - females must invest more in each child than males. This can lead to an equilibrium where males focus on impressing and having sex with as many females as possible, while females do most of the child-rearing and choose impressive males. …And because they are asymmetric, their betrayal is also asymmetric. Women betray bonds more by temporarily having fertile sex with other men, while men betray bonds more by directing resources more permanently to other women. So when farmer husbands and wives watch for signs of betrayal, they watch for different things. Husbands watch wives more for signs of a temporary inclination toward short-term mating with other men, while wives watch husbands more for signs of an inclination to shift toward a long-term resource-giving bond with other women. This asymmetric watching for signs of betrayal produces asymmetric pressures on appearances. While a man can be more straight-forward and honest with himself and others about his inclinations toward short-term sex, he should be more careful with the signs he shows about his inclinations toward long term attachments with women. Similarly, while a woman can be more straight-forward and honest with herself and others about her inclinations toward long-term attachments with men, she should be more careful with the signs she shows about her inclinations toward short term sex with men. …Standard crude stereotypes of gender differences roughly fit these predictions! That is, when the subject is one’s immediate lust and sexual attraction to others, by reputation men are more straight-forward and transparent, while women are more complex and opaque, even to themselves. But when the subject is one’s inclination toward and feelings about long-term attachments, by reputation women are more self-aware and men are more complex and opaque, even to themselves…if cryonics is framed as abandonment, women should be more sensitive to that signal.43 The selfishness of cryonics does seem to be an issue for women and many men; one might wonder, would other heroic medical procedures be more socially acceptable if they involved other-directedness? I suggest the answer is yes: cord blood banking costs thousands with a lower (<0.1%) success rate (usage of the cord blood) than many cryonicists expect of cryonics (the Fermi estimates tend to be <5%); sperm banking costs a similar amount, while egg/oocycte banking may cost something like half what cryonics does! In the media coverage I have read of those 3 practices, I have the impression that people see them as legitimate medical procedures albeit ones where the cost-benefit equation may not work out. (Cryonicists, on the other hand, are just nuts.) Perhaps this is because sperm and egg banking - while fundamentally selfish, since if you cannot use your egg or sperm later, why don’t you want to adopt? - involves the creation of another person as hallowed by society. ## Reductionism is the common thread? The previously listed systems of thought, as it were, all seem to share a common trait: they are made of millions or trillions of deterministic interacting pieces. Any higher-level entity is not an ontological atom, and those higher-level illusions can be manipulated in principle nigh-arbitrarily given sufficient information. That the higher-level entities really are nothing but the atomic units interacting is the fundamental pons asinorum of these ideologies, and the one that nonbelievers have not crossed. We can apply this to each system. • Many doubters of cryonics doubt that a bunch of atoms vitrified in place is really the self. • Many users of computers anthropomorphize it and can’t accept that it is really just a bunch of bits (this is related to the thesis that the camel has two humps, the test being, basically, whether a sample program will be executed as-is by the (dumb) computer) • Many doubters of materialist philosophy of mind are not willing to say that an extremely large complex enough system can constitute a consciousness • Many doubters of utilitarianism doubt that there really is a best choice or good computable approximations to the ideal choice, and either claim utilitarianism fails basic ethical dilemmas by forcing the utilitarian to make the stupid choice or instead vaunt as the end-all be-all of ethics what can be easily be formulated as simply heuristics and approximation, like virtue ethics44 • Many doubters of libertarianism doubt that prices can coordinate multifarious activities, that the market really will find a level, etc. Out of the chaos of the atoms interacting is supposed to come all good things…? This seems arbitrary, unfair, and unreasonable. • The same could be said of evolution. Like the profit motive, how can mere survival generate from so simple a beginning endless forms most beautiful and most wonderful have been, and are being, evolved45? • Finally, atheism. A faith of its own in the power of reductionist approaches across all fields. What is a God, but the ultimate complex high-level irreducible ontological entity? In all, there is incredulity at sheer numbers. An ordinary person can accept a few layers since that is what they are used to - a car is made of a few dozen systems with a few discrete thousand parts, a dinner is made of 3 or 4 dishes with no more than a dozen ingredients, etc. The ordinary mind quails at systems with millions of components (number of generations evolution can act on), much less billions (length of programs, number of processor cycles in a second) or trillions (number of cells in human body, number of bits on consumer hard drives). If one doesn’t deal first-hand with this, if one has never worked with them at any level, how does one know that semiconductor physics is the sublayer for circuits, the sublayer for logic gates; logic gates the sublayer for memory and digital operations, which then support the processor with its fancy instruction like add or mov, which enables machine code, which we prefer to write as assembler (to be compiled and the linked into machine code), which can be targeted by programming languages, at which point we have only begun to bring in the operating system, libraries, and small programs, which let us begin to think about how to write something like a browser, and a decade later, we have Firefox which will let Grandma go to AOL Mail. (To make a mapping, the utilitarian definition is like defining a logic gate; the ultimate decisions in a particular situation are like an instance of Firefox, depending on trillions of intermediate steps/computations/logic gates. Non-programmers can’t see how to work backwards from Firefox to individual logic gates, and their blindness is so profound that they can’t even see that there is a mapping. Compare all the predictions that computers will never X; people can’t see how trillions of steps or pieces of data could result in computers doing X, so - argument from incredulity - they then believe there is no such way.) A programmer will have a hard time being knowledgeable about programming and debugging, and also not appreciative of reductionism in his bones. If you tell him that a given system is actually composed of millions of interacting dumb bits - he’ll believe you. Because that’s all his programs are. If you tell a layman that his mortgage rate is being set by millions of interacting dumb bits (or his mind…) - he’ll probably think you’re talking bullshit. Religious belief seems to correlate and causate with quick intuitive thinking (and deontological judgments as well), and what is more counterintuitive than reductionism? I don’t know if this paradigm is correct, but it does explain a lot of things. For example, it correctly predicts that evolutionism will be almost universally accepted among the specified groups, even though logically, there’s no reason cryonicists have to be evolutionists or libertarians, and vice-versa, no reason libertarians would have any meaningful correlation with utilitarianism. I would be deeply shocked & fascinated if there were data showing that they were uncorrelated or even inversely correlated; I could understand libertarianism correlating inversely with atheism, at least in the peculiar circumstances of the United States, but I would expect all of the others to be positively correlated. The only other potential counterexample I can think of would be engineers and terrorism, and that is a relatively small and rare correlation. # Domain-squatting externalities In developing my custom search engine for finding sources for Wikipedia articles, one of its chief benefits turned out to nothing other than filtering out mirrors of Wikipedia! Since one is usually working on an existing article, that means there may be hundreds or thousands of copies of the article floating around the Internet, all of which match very well the search term one is using, but which contribute nothing. This is one of the hidden costs of having a FLOSS license: the additional copying imposes an overhead46. This cost is not borne by the copier, who may be making quite a bit of money on their Wikipedia mirror, even penalized by Google as they have since become. In other words, cluttering up searches is a negative externality. (One could say the same thing of the many mirrors or variant versions of social news sites like Hacker News. Who are they imposing costs upon unilaterally?) Domain-squatters are another nuisance; so often I have gone to an old URL and found nothing but a parking domain, with maybe the URL plugged into a Google search underneath a sea of random ads. But, the libertarian objects, clearly these domain-squatters are providing a service since otherwise there would be no advertising revenue and the domain-squatters could not afford to annually renew the domain, much less turn a profit. But here is another clear case of externalities. On parking domains, only 1 person out of thousands is going to click on an ad (at best), find something useful to them, and make the ads a paying proposition. but those other thousands are going to be slowed down - the page has to be loaded, they have to look at it, analyze it, and realize that it’s not what they wanted and try something else like a differently spelled domain or a regular search. A simple domain-not-found error would have been faster by a second at least, and less mental effort. The wasted time, the cost to those thousands, is not borne by the domain-squatter, the ad-clicker, or the advertiser. They are externalizing the costs of their existing. # Worldbuilding: The Lights in the Sky are Sacs On page 217 of evolutionary biologist Geoffrey Miller’s 2011 book Spent, in the middle of some fairly interesting material on Openness to Experience, one reads: ’…Our six verbal creativity tasks included questions like: Imagine that all clouds had really long strings hanging from them - strings hundreds of feet long. What would be the implications of that fact for nature and society? To make the obvious point: strings hundreds of feet long strong enough to support themselves and any real weight are better termed ropes. And ropes are heavy. There’s no obvious way to change physics to permit just ropes to not be heavy, in the same way you can’t remove fire & keep cellular respiration. (If we insist on the string language ad the implication that the strings are weak and thin, we can take some sort of arachnid tack, which would be either creepy or awesome.) So let’s engage in a little worldbuilding exercise and imagine alternatives. A cloud with a rope dangling is an awful lot like a balloon or lighter-than-air vehicles in general. How do they work? Usually by using hot air, or with a intrinsically lighter gas like helium or hydrogen. Both need good seals, though, which is something a biological organism can do. But where is an organism going to get enough heat to be a living hot air balloon? So maybe it uses helium instead, but then, where does it get helium? We get helium by applying hundreds of billion of dollars in R&D to digging deep narrow holes in the ground, which is not a viable strategy for a global population of clouds. So hydrogen? That’d work actually; hydrogen is very easy to obtain, just crack water! Even better, the organisms creating this hydrogen to obtain flight could reuse the hydrogen for energy - just burn with oxygen! The Laws of Thermodynamics say that burning wouldn’t generate any new energy, so this isn’t what they feed on. But the answer presents itself - if you’re in the sky or better yet, above the cloud layer, there’ something very valuable up there - sunlight. Trees grow so big and engage in chemical warfare just to get access to the sun, but our hydrogen sacs soar over the groundlings. There might be a similar competition, but the sacs have their own problems: as altitude increases, ambient pressure decreases (which is good) but temperatures plunge (bad) and other forms of radiation increase (ultraviolet?). As well, if our sacs are photosynthetic, they need inputs: water & carbon dioxide for photosynthesis, and the usual organic bulk materials & rarer elements for themselves. Which actually explains where our ropes are coming from: they are the sacs’ roots. How could such a lifeform evolve? I have no idea. There are animals which glide (eg. flying squirrel), others which are dispersed by wind (spiders), and so on, but none that actually crack water into hydrogen & oxygen or exploit hydrogen for gliding or buoyancy. And there are serious issues with the hydrogen sacs: lightning would seem to be a problem… Still, we could reuse our competition for solar radiation idea; maybe a tree, striving to be taller but running into serious engineering issues to do with power laws, tweaked its photosynthesis to divert some of the split hydrogen to storage vacuoles which would make it lighter and able to grow a little taller. Rise and repeat for millions of years to obtain something which is free-floating and has shed much of its old tree-form for a new spherical shape. Imagine that a plant or animal did so evolve, and evolved before humanity did. Millions of floating creatures around the world, each one with lifting capacity of a few pounds; or since they could probably grow very large without the same engineering limitations as trees, perhaps hundreds to thousands of pounds. When humanity gets a clue, they will seize on the sacs without hesitation! Horses changed history, and the sacs are better than horses. The sacs are mobile over land and sea, hang indefinitely, allow aerial assaults, and would be common. It’s hard to imagine a Great Wall of China effective against a sac-mounted nomad force! There’s barrage balloons, but those are impossibly expensive on any large scale. More troubling, early states had major difficulties maintaining control. When you read about ancient Egypt or China or Rome, again and again one encounters barbarians or nomads invading or conquering entirely the state, and how they were, man for man, superior to the soldiers of the government. Relatively modest technical innovations meant that when the Mongols got their act together and refined their strategy, they conquered most of the world. Formal empires and states are not inevitable outcomes, as much as they dominate our thinking in modern times - they didn’t exist for most of human history, didn’t control most territory or people for much of the period they could be said to exist, and it’s unclear how much longer they will survive even in this age of their triumph & universalization. History is shot through with contingency and luck. That China did not have an Industrial Revolution and oddball England did is a matter to give us pause. What happens when we give nomadic humans, in the un-organized part of history, a creature unparalleled in mobility? At the very least, I think we can expect any static agriculture-based empire (the Indus, Yang-tze, Nile) to be strangled in its cradle. Without states, history would be completely different with few recognizable entities except perhaps ethnicities. The English state seemed closely involved in the Industrial Revolution (funding the Age of Exploration, patents, etc.) and also the concurrent scientific revolution (it is the Royal society, and even Newton worked much of his life for the Crown). No state, no Revolution? As cool as it would be to ride a sac around the world, I wouldn’t trade them for science and technology. But optimistically, could we expect something else to arise - so that the sac variant of human history not be one damn thing after another, happy savages until a pandemic or asteroid finally blots out the human world? I think so. If a sac can lift one person, then can’t we tie together sacs and lift multiple people? Recycling ropes from dead sacs, we could bind together hundreds of sacs and suspend buildings from them. (I say suspend because to put them on top of the sac-structure would cut off the light that the sacs need and might also be unstable as well.) A traveling village would naturally be a trading village - living in the air is dangerous, so I suspect there will always be villages planted firmly on the ground (even if they keep a herd of sacs of their own). This increased mobility and trade might spark a global economy of its own. I failed to mention earlier that the sacs, besides being a potent tool of mobility exceeding horses, could also constitute a weapon of their own: a highly refined and handy package of hydrogen. Hydrogen burns very well. If nothing else, it makes arson and torching a target very handy. Could sacs be weaponized? Could a nomad take a sac, poke a spigot into it, light a match and turn the sac into a rocket with a fiery payload on impact? If they can be, then things look very dim indeed for states. But on the flip side, hydrogen burns hot and oxyhydrogen was one of the first mixtures for welding. Our nomads will be able to easily melt and weld tough metals like iron. Handy. I leave the thought exercise at this point, having overseen the labefaction of the existing world order and pointed at a potential iron-using airborne anarchy. Which of the two is a better world, I leave to the unknowable unfolding of the future. # On meta-ethical optimization When I or another utilitarian point out (eg. in Charity is not about helping) that it costs only a few hundred/thousand dollars to reliably save a human life, and then note that one choosing to spend money on something else is choosing to not save that life, one of the common reactions is that this is true of every expenditure and that this implies we ought to donate most or all of our wealth. This is quite true. If you have$10,000 and you donate it all, there will be say 10 more humans alive than in the counterfactual scenario where you spend $10,000 on a daily cup of coffee at Starbucks. This is a simple fact about how the world works. To deny it requires quibbling about probabilities and expected value (despite one accepting them in every other part of one’s life) or engaging in desperate postulations about infinitely precise counter-balancing mechanisms (maybe if I donate, that means someone somewhere will donate that much less! So it conveniently doesn’t matter whether or not I do, I don’t make a difference!). Fundamentally, if to give a little helps, then for non-billionaires, giving a lot helps more, and given even more helps even more. What a dull point to make. But the reaction to this dull point is interesting. Apparently for many people, this shows that utilitarianism is not correct! I saw this particularly in the reception to Peter Singer’s book The Life You Can Save - that Singer to some extent lives up to his proposed standards seems to make it even worse. It seems that people intuitively think that the true ethical theory will not be too demanding. This is rather odd. A few criteria are common in meta-ethics, that the One True Ethics should satisfy. For example, universalizability: the One True Ethics should apply to Pluto just as much as it does Earth, or work a few galaxies over just like we would apply it in the Milky Way. Similarly for time: it’d be an odd and unsatisfying ethics which said casual murder was forbidden before 2050 AD but OK afterwards. (Like physics, the rules stay the same, but different input, different output.) It ought to cover all actions and inactions, if only to classify it as morally neutral. (It would be odd if one were pondering the morality of something and asked, only to be told in a very Buddhist way, that the action was: not moral, not immoral, not neither moral nor immoral, not both moral and immoral…) And finally, the ethical theory has to do work: it has to make relatively specific suggestions, and ideally those suggestions would be specific enough that it permits little and forbids much. (For example, could one base a satisfactory ethical theory on the Ten Commandments and nothing else? If all one had to do was be moral was to not violate a commandment? That would be not that hard, but I suspect, as we watch our neighbors fornicate with their goats and sheep, we will suspect that it is immoral even though nowhere in the Ten Commandments did God forbid bestiality - or many other things, for that matter, like child molestation.) The theory may not specify a unique action, but that’s OK. (You see two strangers drowning and can save only one; your ethical theory says you can randomly pick, because saving either stranger is equally good. That seems fine to me, even though your ethics did not give you just one moral option, but two..) Given that every person faces, at every moment, a mindboggling number of possible actions and inactions, even an ethics which permitted thousands of moral actions in a given circumstance is ruling out countless more. And since there are a lot of moments in a lifetime, that’s a lot of actions too. Considering this, it would not be a surprise if people frequently chose immoral or amoral actions: no one bats a thousand and even Homer nods, as the sayings go. So there is a lot of room for improvement. If this were true of ethics, that would only mean ethics is like every other field of human endeavour in having an ideal that is beyond attainment - no doctor never makes a mistake, no chess player never overlooks an easy checkmate, no artist never messes up a drawing, and so on. There is no end to moral improvement: Disquiet in philosophy may be said to arise from looking at philosophy wrongly, seeing it wrong, namely a if it were divided into (infinite) longitudinal strips instead of into (finite) cross strips. This inversion in our conception produces the greatest difficulty. So we try, as it were, to grasp the unlimited strips and complain that it cannot be done piecemeal. To be sure it cannot, if by a piece one means an infinite longitudinal strip. But it may well be done, if one means a cross-strip. –But in that case we never get to the end of our work! –Of course not, for it has no end.47 Yet, people seem to expect moral perfection to be easy! When utilitarianism tells them that they are far from being morally perfect (like they are not perfect writers or car drivers), they say that utilitarianism is stupid and sets unobtainable goals. Well, yes. Wouldn’t it be awfully odd if goodness were as attainable as, say, playing a perfect game of tic-tac-toe? If all one had to do to be a good person on par with paragons like Jonas Salk or Norman Borlaug was to simply not do anything awful and be nice to people around you? Why would one expect morality to be easy? Most human endeavors are hard, and ethics covers all our endeavors. To object to utilitarianism because it points to a very high ideal is reminiscent, to me, of rejecting heliocentrism because it makes the universe much bigger and the earth much smaller. The small-minded want an equally small-minded ethics. # Reasons of State: Why Didn’t Denmark Sell Greenland? Reading one day on Reddit, I ran into a bit of historical trivia on Wikipedia: Following World War II, the United States developed a geopolitical interest in Greenland, and in 1946 the United States offered to buy Greenland from Denmark for$100,000,000, but Denmark refused to sell.

The reason why the US would want to buy Greenland is clear: being able to install anti-Russian military installations such as early-warning radar and nuclear bomber bases (Greenland being fairly close, on a great circle, to Russia)48. The US has famously often bought large chunks of land (Louisiana Territory & Alaska being the biggest), so it was nothing new.

The reason why Denmark would want to not sell Greenland is… less clear. At first glance, it’s not clear. Nor the second.

## Costs

By the economics, holding on to Greenland is a bad idea.

$100m in 1946 dollars is somewhere around$1b in 2011 dollars. Then one should consider the opportunity cost; $100m invested in 1946 until 2011 at a 5% return is around 24x ($1.{05}^{2011-1946}=23.8399$) or$2.4b. Denmark could have realized such a return just by leaving the money in the American stock market; the Dow Jones varied between 160 and 200 in 1946-1950, and over the past few years trades at 10-12,000 for a return of 60-63x, and this is an underestimate: stock market returns have been hurt badly by the late 2000s - if one took the old rule of thumb that stock markets return 8% over the long term, Denmark’s hypothetical return would have been 149x, not 63x ($1.{08}^{2011-1946}=148.779$). With a few more decades, the foregone returns may take off and return to the trendline; Denmark does not have a sovereign wealth fund as gigantic as Norway’s Statens Pensjonsfond, but the government or the pension funds certainly can take a long view on investing, so that’s not an issue.

We can deal with the economy of Greenland in one fell swoop: Greenland’s entire GDP is around $2b. The overall trade deficit is a few hundred million and has been in place for 21 years, since 1990. The official Danish subsidy was$512m in 2005. Greenland is not a going concern and would collapse within years. It’s hard to estimate the total subsidy sine 1946, but if we make the assumption that the subsidy is a constant percentage of Danish GDP then the subsidy totals (ignoring opportunity cost) somewhere upwards of $3-16b49. Americans may find 3 billion or even$16 billion a pretty piddling sum given the colossal sums it spends (>$3t on Iraq and Afghanistan,$2.5b for B-2 Bombers, etc.); but remember the USA is the largest economy in the world with 300 million people. Denmark is closer to the 30th largest economy, and has just 5.6 million people. It might be fairer to multiply every figure by 60, to get a range from $180b to$960b - at which point it becomes clear that this is no laughing matter. This money could have funded major projects like the Øresund Bridge.

## Benefits

So what can we put on the positive side of the balance-sheet? Before evaluating something we need to ask ourselves whether Danish sovereignty over Greenland matters - sovereignty is what Denmark was asked to sell, nothing else. If something would benefit Denmark regardless of whether it sold Greenland or not, then it cannot count as a benefit. We are also interested in the changes on the margin based on Denmark not selling.

Proceeding through possible benefits in descending order:

1. Geostrategic location

Obviously very valuable. But it is worthless to Denmark if it does not use the location for anything valuable - which it does not. Denmark is liberal Scandinavian state which has been neutral since the 1864 Second Schleswig War; it is not going to launch its piratical navy out from hidden Greenland ports to raid Atlantic shipping. Denmark has, does, and will make no significant military use of Greenland. Likewise, Denmark has failed to capture the indirect geostrategic value of Greenland: not only did it refuse the US offer, it then proceeded to let the US use Greenland as much as it pleased, expanding the US WWII installations into the gigantic Thule Air Base (linchpin of the Strategic Air Command nuclear bombers aimed at Russia) and agreeing to govern Thule under a 1951 treaty which specifically says (emphasis added):

Without prejudice to the sovereignty of the Kingdom of Denmark over such defense area and the natural right of the competent Danish authorities to free movement everywhere in Greenland, the Government of the United States of America, without compensation to the Government of the Kingdom of Denmark, shall be entitled within such defense area and the air spaces and waters adjacent thereto: …

When Denmark’s military is active in the 20th/21st century, it is in roles where Greenland is of no possible value to it (eg. serving as peacekeepers & advisors in Afghanistan). What is the Danish Navy supposed to do, intervene in the Cod Wars? With the ending of the Cold War, Greenland’s value is likewise diminished. Yes, the US would still like it for use with the anti-ballistic missile shield, but that’s a preference and not an existential necessity.
2. Territorial waters extend out only 12 nautical miles. Even the Greenland EEZ does not cut off the Passage. The only obvious way to monetize the Passage is military, which as already noted, is politically impossible for Denmark.
3. Fishing grounds

Fishing is one of the few viable Greenland industries; Wikipedia says it’s 72% of the 2008 exports of $485m or$350m, from a fishery of around 5 million square miles. This is total export value, not profit. If we assume profits of 10%/$30m or whatever, that’s nowhere near enough to repay the subsidy or the cost of not selling, and so it does not help. (But it is definitely a brighter spot in the tally when compared with the oil/Passage/geostrategic values of 0.) 4. Hydrocarbons: oil/natural gas/methane An old hypothetical. The Greenland state oil company, NUNAOIL, is small; and if I read their 2010 report correctly, they lose money some years and the profitable years yield only a few million dollars. There may be ton of oil there, but there will always be oil deposits somewhere which are uneconomical to extract, and Greenland seem to hold them. (When oil companies prefer working with tar sands to your oil, you either have very little or very hard oil.) Worse, Denmark has agreed that future oil profits will go to Greenland, left-overs will only go to reduce the annual Danish subsidy, and anything past that goes back to Greenland. So under no scenario does Denmark turn an actual profit. And finally, Denmark could profit from any oil discovered regardless of whether it or the US owned Greenland - if its oil companies are competitive. Oil is completely useless as a defense. 5. Mining: Zinc, lead, and rare earths Those mines were closed in 1990, but may re-open in the future. I didn’t find any data on the profitability of the mines between 1946 and 1990; it is possible they were so lucrative as to justify holding onto Greenland. This seems a little unlikely, but I can’t immediately dismiss it. (It wouldn’t justify the subsidies past 1990, of course, but it might justify the original 1946 decision to hold onto Greenland.) The warming of Greenland and melting of glacial ice has prompted renewed exploration50 of Greenland’s mineral reserves and fresh discoveries of deposits51, suggesting that profits were minimal before due to difficult conditions. The difficulty here is that many of the economic benefits will be internalized by the companies doing the exploitation, their (foreign) employees, and the externalized environmental waste & health fallout from mining is notorious. In particular, the discovery of rare earths may not matter because rare earth deposits are not rare and not found solely in China (as coverage of China’s 2009-2010 rare earth embargo might lead one to believe) but found all over including large deposits in the USA; the reason the American deposits at the Mountain Pass rare earth mine stopped being mined is because the environmental contamination was too severe and China permitted that while America did not - hence Mountain Pass is only starting up with a heavy investment in cleaner mining techniques. Will the rare earths be profitable enough to compete with American or Australian or Canadian or Chinese deposits, under Greenland’s conditions, at acceptable levels of pollution and especially the taboo radioactivity?52 6. Political control Greenland has been principally self-governing since 1979. This may not have been foreseeable in 1946, but suppose it hadn’t; how exactly is the control worth hundreds of millions and billions? 7. Capturing Greenland’s import business If Denmark’s exports (and future benefits from postulated resource wealth) are driven by its sovereignty over Greenland, then their current moves in devolving even more power and control to the Greenland government (eg. the aforementioned oil deal) are shooting themselves in the economic foot. And if Denmark’s export success isn’t because of its sovereignty, all the less reason to have sovereignty! But given the fact that the direct Danish subsidy is almost the size of Greenland’s entire annual imports and Greenland only imports 60% from Denmark (60% of$867m being $520m vs$500m subsidy), it is hard to see how this could ever result in a profit for Denmark.
8. Cultural value

Wikipedia does list handicrafts as a major export. But just like oil and the other resources, benefiting from Greenland’s craftsmen and artists do not require any kind of sovereignty or subsidization. The US doesn’t own China or Canada, yet we still profit plenty and get lots of artists and craftsmen from them. Given free flow of people, the question becomes can Denmark justify its subsidies and opportunity cost by the marginal increase of artists and craftsmen? Justifying by Greenland’s art is dubious; by the marginal increase even more dubious.
9. Colonization

Much of the Greenland population is Danish, unsurprisingly. One wonders if some successful colonization (the population is only 57,000 people) is a real benefit to Denmark; regardless, given that Denmark’s 2010 birthrate of 1.88 children per women is below replacement rate, any nationalists ought to focus their colonizing efforts at home.
10. Charity

Greenland is a poor country. Perhaps Denmark simply wants to help out. This is ethically reprehensible. Greenland is poor, but compared to many African countries it is fabulously wealthy regardless of whether you take the $20k per capita at face value or discount subsidies etc. to get something more like$10k per capita.. Investigations of African intervention estimate the cost of saving African lives at ~$1000 a life but let’s be conservative and increase the cost by an order of magnitude to$10,000 a life; is helping a bit the 57,000 Greenlanders ethically preferable to instead saving 50,000 African lives ($\frac{500,000,000}{10,000}$)? I do not think they are even close, and if that is Denmark’s true reason, shame on them for letting distance or ethnicity warp their ethical judgement to such a freakish extreme. (It is not as if European countries sending foreign aid to Africa is some hugely novel and experimental concept. It is well-understood how to do good in Africa and the Danish would be more competent than most at the job.)

Note that I did not include as a benefit makes Denmark bigger. Land is not intrinsically valuable, but rather what is in it or on it is of value. One acre of Tokyo or Manhattan will buy you many acres indeed of the frozen wastes of Russia or the baked wastes of the Sahara. (The Sahara, incidentally, used to be a really nice place: the Green Sahara; something similar happened to Mesopotamia as it went from bread basket of civilization to dusty Iraq.) If we think about deserts, we see land can be an outright liability if it leads to desertification and destructive sandstorm devastating the good bits of one’s country. Russia is fairly wealthy (in aggregate, not per capita), but that is due to what its frozen wastes contain, not the wastes; and it appears Greenland did not receive the dubious blessing of the devil’s excrement (see resource curse).

## Why?

Being an outside unfamiliar with Denmark, it is hard for me to speculate. One person tells me:

If the national budget have to be cut, I think Greenland would rate as one of the last things Danes would like to see cut.

That’s very strange. As an American, would I say Puerto Rico is one of the very last things that ought to ever be cut in the federal budget? Heck no! Puerto Rico has repeatedly decided it’d rather not be a state, but at least it’s still genuinely ruled by the USA; if Puerto Rico decided to switch to full home rule, I think I’d care even less about them.

So why are the Danish so keen on Greenland? It spurns them politically, it costs them a fortune, and has no apparent advantage. Given the above quote, it may be time to abandon realpolitik, especially when we read in the 1947 Time:

There was always the objection that Denmark’s national pride would stand in the way of a sale. But U.S. military men thought they had an answer: Denmark owes U.S. investors $70 million. That is less than the cost of an 850-ft. carrier for the Navy, but more dollar exchange than Copenhagen can easily raise. One wonders why Denmark didn’t, say, offer the US a 99-year lease for$70 million, especially if they were struggling (like post-war England, one notes) to raise dollars for imports and debt-service.

What would explain the Danish placing Greenland above other sacred cows in their budget and permit the US to establish huge military bases for free? Sacred cow seems to be as useful a phrase here as Time’s national pride; the last time the US bought land from Denmark was the United States Virgin Islands with the Treaty of the Danish West Indies, under difficult Danish circumstances in WWI. It would not be too surprising if there were some bitter feelings about this among some Danish, regardless of what happened.

Perhaps this is the explanation: Greenland has become symbolic. Possession of Greenland has become a symbol of Denmark’s status as a modern independent developed nation. The symbolism of sovereignty and the shared history is not threatened by US bases, nor home rule, nor economic failure, and apparently is sufficient repayment for all the money poured down that hole.

# Remote monitoring

Desire: some way to monitor freelancer’s activity (if they are billing by time rather than results).

Why? This enables better compliance and turns freelancers into less of a lemon market - allowing for higher salaries due to lower risk. Reportedly, such monitoring also helps one’s own akrasia - one could use it both while working and not working, just with someone else (akin to coffee shops perhaps). The idea comes from Cousin It and Richard Hollerith’s http://lesswrong.com/lw/2qv/browser_buddies_remote_monitoring_experiment/ (even if it wouldn’t go as far as letting one’s life be managed!).

Potential solutions:

1. remote desktops: screenshots or video. Requirements:

• cross-platform (Linux, Windows & Mac)
• secure (eg. using SSH for transport, especially since we already use SSH for full-text access)
• easily toggleable on and off
Of the remote desktop protocols, only the VNC protocol is acceptable: has many open source & proprietary cross-platform implementations for both client and server on, and can be tunneled over SSH. (Nick Tarleton says Macs are already compatible with a VNC client user.) TightVNC seems like it would work well. (One difficulty: the natural tool to use once a VNC server is running on the remote desktop is vncsnapshot which does what you think it does, but the Debian summary warns it does not work over SSH. vnccapture may or may not work.)
2. browser URL logging (since much work takes place in browsers). Requirements:

• cross-browser (Firefox, Chrome, Safari; IE users can die in a fire)
RescueTime has a paid group tracking set of features that seems designed for this sort of task. There are many other Internet possibilities. (I used to use the Firefox extension PageAddict which worked well for this sort of thing but is unmaintained; the most popular maintained extension, Leechblock, doesn’t export statistics. about:me would probably work, but wouldn’t be automated.)
3. Other

For example, my sousveillance script; it would be trivial to set up a folder and then add a call to the script like scp xwd-?????.png [email protected] /* <![CDATA[ */ (function(){try{var s,a,i,j,r,c,l,b=document.getElementsByTagName("script");l=b[b.length-1].previousSibling;a=l.getAttribute('data-cfemail');if(a){s='';r=parseInt(a.substr(0,2),16);for(j=2;a.length-j;j+=2){c=parseInt(a.substr(j,2),16)^r;s+=String.fromCharCode(c);}s=document.createTextNode(s);l.parentNode.replaceChild(s,l);}}catch(e){}})(); /* ]]> */ :/rc12/d16/yyli/screenshots/gwern/. This should be easily implemented for Macs, but for Windows? I am sure it is doable to write some sort of batch script which integrates with Task Scheduler, but I left Windows before I wrote my first script, so I don’t know how hard it would be.

# Laplace’s rule of succession, the Hope function, and Waiting for AI

Chapter 18: the A_p_ Distribution and the Rule of Succession, from E.T. Jaynes’s Probability Theory: The Logic of Science starting pg 9

Poor old Laplace has been ridiculed for over a Century because he illustrated use of this rule by calculating the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow, given that it has risen every day for the past 5,000 years.y One gets a rather large factor (odds of $5000×365.2426+1=1826214:1$) in favor of the sun rising again tomorrow. With no exceptions at all as far as we are aware, modern writers on probability have considered this a pure absurdity. Even Keynes (1921) and Jeffreys (1939) find fault with the rule of succession. We have to confess our inability to see

Here are some famous examples of the kind of objections to the rule of succession which you find in the literature:

1. Suppose the solidification of hydrogen to have been once accomplished. According to the rule of succession, the probability that it will solidify again if the experiment is repeated is 2/3. This does not in the least represent the state of belief of any scientist.
2. A boy 10 years old today. According to the rule of succession, he has the probability 11/12 of living one more year. His grandfather is 70; and so according to this rule he has the probability 71/72 of living one more year. The rule violates qualitative common sense!
3. Consider the case N = n = 0. It then says that any conjecture without verification has the probability 1/2. Thus there is probability 1/2 that there are exactly 137 elephants on Mars. Also there is probability 1/2 that there are 138 elephants on Mars. Therefore, it is certain that there are at least 137 elephants on Mars. But the rule says also that there is probability 1/2 that there are no elephants on Mars. The rule is logically self-contradictory!

…The trouble with examples (1) and (2) is obvious in view of our earlier remarks; in each case, highly relevant prior information, known to all of us, was simply ignored, producing a flagrant misuse of the rule of succession. But let’s look a little more closely at example (3). Wasn’t the rule applied correctly here? We certainly can’t claim that we had prior information about elephants on Mars which was ignored.

…In the case N = 0, we could solve the problem also by direct application of the principle of indifference, and this will of course give the same answer P (A|X ) = 1/2, that we got from the rule of succession. But just by noting this, we see what is wrong. Merely by admitting the possibility of one of three different propositions being true, instead of only one of two, we have already specified prior information different from that used in deriving the rule of succession. If the robot is told to consider 137 different ways in which A could be false, and only one way in which it could be true, and is given no other information, then its prior probability for A is 1/138, not 1/2. So, we see that the example of elephants on Mars was, again, a gross misapplication of the rule of succession.

We give the derivation in full detail, to present a mathematical technique of Laplace that is useful in many other problems. There are $K$ different hypotheses, ${A}_{1},{A}_{2},...,{A}_{K}$, a belief that the causal mechanism is constant, and no other prior information. We perform a random experiment $N$ times, and observe ${A}_{1}$ true ${n}_{1}$ times, ${A}_{2}$ true ${n}_{2}$ times, etc. Of course, ${\sum }_{i}{n}_{i}=N$. On the basis of this evidence, what is the probability that in the next $M={\sum }_{i}{m}_{i}$ repetitions, ${A}_{i}$ will be true exactly ${m}_{i}$ times?

…In the case where we want just the probability that ${A}_{1}$ will be true on the next trial, we need this formula with $M={m}_{1}=1$, all other mi = 0. The result is the generalized rule of succession:

(18-39): $p\left({A}_{1}\mid {n}_{1},N,K\right)=\frac{{n}_{1}+1}{N+K}$

You see that in the case $N={n}_{1}=0$, this reduces to the answer provided by the principle of indifference, which it therefore contains as a special case.

…Now, use of the rule of succession in cases where $N$ is very small is rather foolish, of course. Not really wrong; just foolish. Because if we have no prior evidence about $A$, and we make such a small number of observations that we get practically no evidence; well, that’s just not a very promising basis on which to do plausible reasoning. We can’t expect to get anything useful out of it. We do, of course, get definite numerical values for the probabilities, but these values are very soft, i.e., very unstable, because the ${A}_{p}$ distribution is still very broad for small $N$. Our common sense tells us that the evidence ${N}_{n}$ for small $N$ provides no reliable basis for further predictions, and we’ll see that this conclusion also follows as a consequence of the theory we’re developing here.

The real reason for introducing the rule of succession lies in the cases where we do get a significant amount of information from the experiment; i.e., when $N$ is a large number. In this case, fortunately, we can pretty much forget about these fine points concerning prior evidence. The particular initial assignment $\left({A}_{p}\mid X\right)$ will no longer have much influence on the results, for the same reason as in the particle-counter problem of Chapter 6. This remains true for the generalized case leading to (18-38). You see from (18-39) that as soon as the number of observations $N$ is large compared to the number of hypotheses $K$, then the probability assigned to any particular hypothesis depends for all practical purposes, only on what we have observed, and not on how many prior hypotheses there are. If you contemplate this for ten seconds, your common sense will tell you that the criterion $N\gg K$ is exactly the right one for this to be so.

# Birthday game theory

From Peter Watts’s _Blindsight, Theseus:

And then, a bit defensive in spite of myself, I added, I’ve found it [game theory] useful, though. In areas you might not expect it to be.

Yeah? Name one.

Birthdays, I said, and immediately wished I hadn’t…Well, according to game theory, you should never tell anyone when your birthday is.

I don’t follow.

It’s a lose-lose proposition. There’s no winning strategy.

What do you mean, strategy? It’s a birthday.

Chelsea had said exactly the same thing when I’d tried to explain it to her. Look, I’d said, say you tell everyone when it is and nothing happens. It’s kind of a slap in the face.

Or suppose they throw you a party, Chelsea had replied.

Then you don’t know whether they’re doing it sincerely, or if your earlier interaction just guilted them into observing an occasion they’d rather have ignored. But if you don’t tell anyone, and nobody commemorates the event, there’s no reason to feel badly because after all, nobody knew. And if someone does buy you a drink then you know it’s sincere because nobody would go to all the trouble of finding out when your birthday is-and then celebrating it-if they didn’t honestly like you.

Of course, the Gang was more up to speed on such things. I didn’t have to explain it verbally: I could just grab a piece of ConSensus and plot out the payoff matrix, Tell/Don’t Tell along the columns, Celebrated/Not Celebrated along the rows, the unassailable black-and-white logic of cost and benefit in the squares themselves. The math was irrefutable: the one winning strategy was concealment. Only fools revealed their birthdays.

TODO The implied payoffs are a little odd. And concealment is highly inefficient from an information point of view: at most you gain information about one or two people.

# On dropping Family Guy

The other day I saw a mention of Family Guy, and I remembered: I used to watch it all the time on Fox & Adult Swim, and liked it a fair bit. I still have several seasons’ worth in my big DVD binder, so I could watch some anytime. But I haven’t watched it in ~4 years. Why did I sour on it?

It’s still available on TV, so that’s not it (although the wretched American Dad and The Cleveland Show series seem to be on a lot; Seth MacFarlane does not know his limits). Nor is it that I now dislike animation; I watch as much anime as ever, and I enjoy The Simpsons whenever I get the chance. And The Simpsons highlights another reason which is not the reason: many Family Guy episodes are awful, but that’s equally true of The Simpsons, especially in the later seasons. We watch for the good episodes, and forgive the bad.

No, I think the reason is more that I became tired with Family Guy. Something in it tired me out. After some thought, I realized that the humor was the reason, and specifically the kinds of humor FG used.

Yes, there’s more than one kind of humor in FG despite its reputation. One venerable classification of culture is into high culture and low culture. The former requires education and knowledge, while the latter caters to the lowest common denominator (or to put it nicely, is universal or accessible).

The kind of humor FG is known for is clearly low. Jokes about bodily functions, sex, norm-breaking in general - these are without question low. The Simpsons has, of course, low humor of its own: pretty much anytime Homer says D’oh! is an instance of low humor.

But then again, The Simpsons also has high humor - characters, guest appearances, allusions, background images, things one might not even realize are meant to be funny until one has already gotten the joke. In the classic episode Thirty Minutes Over Tokyo where they go to Japan, on the flight there Marge tells Homer to not pout about going to Japan rather than Jamaica because You liked Rashomon to which Homer replies That’s not how I remember it. The first several times I saw this, I had no idea what the allusion meant until Rashomon happened to be shown in school and I learned the plot revolved around differing retellings of a crime, at which point Homer’s reply became funny. I suspect 99% of viewers have never seen Rashomon, and almost as many have no idea what the plot was or what the joke was, but for the last 1%, it’s funny.

Does FG have this high humor? Yes! Although here is the difficulty: although I know that there is high humor, most of it I don’t understand. Whenever Stewie or Brian break into song or dance, I understand that probably some classic movie or Broadway musical is being alluded to & homaged, but I have no idea what. I don’t even when I think I should: in one FG episode, Brian finally becomes a writer for The New Yorker, a publication I have read sporadically for many years - nevertheless, most of the jokes go clean over my head.

Isn’t that weird? I think of myself as a fairly knowledgeable guy, and I catch much of the high humor on The Simpsons (I read a few episode guides from The Simpsons Archive identifying all the jokes and allusions, and had seen a good fraction of them). Which raises a question, at least for me: if I am missing all or most of the high jokes on FG, who exactly are they aimed at? Especially when the Adult Swim demographic skews younger (and more ignorant) than me?

But regardless of why the high jokes are incredibly high and elitist in a sense, I am still missing them. I like a little low humor, but I like best a mix of high and low (heavy on the high). If I am missing out on most of the high, then I am left with the dregs: the low humor, which after sustained exposure wore thin. And exhausted me.

And so I stopped watching.

# The Hyperbolic Time Chamber as Brain Emulation Analogy

Split out as The Hyperbolic Time Chamber.

# Pom Poko’s glorification of group suicide

The first time I watched Studio Ghibli’s 1994 Pom Poko has so far been the last: I found it a transparently thoroughgoing narrative about mass suicide in WWII, and as harrowing as Grave of the Fireflies - but worse in a way because there is no condemnation of the mass suicides. Instead, we somewhat admire and sympathasize with them.

Alexandra Roedder wrote:

I always saw Pom Poko as being what it claimed to be: a story of the development of the Tama region of Tokyo, told with a strange kind of humor to offset (maybe?) or emphasize the sad facts of the development’s impact on the environment. The mass sacrifice strikes me as being a part of the portrayal of the era, relying on the cultural memory (for lack of a better term) of kamikaze from WWII, not a commentary on it.

But WWII also brought the end of the traditional sort of Japanese development and increased Western-style development - like the city we see by the end, and things like the nightclub (or casino?) where they met the foxes.

The parallels are there, if you want to see them.

The Tanuki (the traditional Japanese) see their traditional way of life threatened by modern foreign-style development with apartments and powered construction vehicle (Western conquest & economic development), and fight back against the initially minor developments (embargo) and then escalate into full warfare (Pearl Harbor and the Pacific War), which ultimately leads to failure against the humans’ superior tools (American materiel advantage), individual kamikaze missions, and mass suicidal attacks of multiple Tanuki in separate places, groups, and methods (Japanese use of suicide submarines, kamikaze planes, banzai charges), and finally, as despair and defeat set in, sheerly futile mass civilian suicide like scores of Tanuki setting off as part of the Buddhist cult-boat to the afterworld (the mass Okinawa suicides with the imperialist justifications - and remember that Buddhism was heavily implicated in this ideology too, it wasn’t just Shintoism, having come to terms with the imperial government during the Meiji restoration).

That you see them as good-humored shows that the suicides are not condemned but if anything approved of them as noble and demonstrating their purity of heart. (I understand Gone with the Wind is not without its own good humor to offset the sad story of the decline of the Old South.)

We all know of the conservative trends and Japanese nationalism which lingers in Japanese politics and manifests in such forms as: denying that any bad things like war crimes happened during their pre-WWII expansion or during WWII itself with the general denial of culpability exemplified by the comfort women; the revisionism in textbooks about such incidents (no doubt whipped up by those who hate Japan) like the Rape of Nanking; the war criminal shrine; and the martyr complex over the nuclear bombings as a perpetual club against the West.

The trend is not absent from anime. Grave of the Fireflies is all about Japanese suffering, for example, with not the slightest sense that other countries were suffering even more.

I like Ghibli movies well enough, but my own particular focus is Gainax films and Hideaki Anno in particular. One of the striking aspects of the WWII material that Anno loves so dearly is that in his discussions, at hardly any point does he exhibit any sense of guilt or culpability or sense that the conquests and Pacific War might have been a bad thing for any other reason than Japan losing it and suffering the consequences. When the topic comes up, they say other things - from an Atlantic interview:

Anno understands the Japanese national attraction to characters like Rei as the product of a stunted imaginative landscape born of Japan’s defeat in the Second World War. Japan lost the war to the Americans, he explains, seeming interested in his own words for the first time during our interview. Since that time, the education we received is not one that creates adults. Even for us, people in their 40s, and for the generation older than me, in their 50s and 60s, there’s no reasonable model of what an adult should be like. The theory that Japan’s defeat stripped the country of its independence and led to the creation of a nation of permanent children, weaklings forced to live under the protection of the American Big Daddy, is widely shared by artists and intellectuals in Japan. It is also a staple of popular cartoons, many of which feature a well-meaning government that turns out to be a facade concealing sinister and more powerful forces.

Further examples of this rhetoric and regret over losing the Pacific War can be found in Takashi Murakami’s long essay Earth in my Window or in Sawaragi (transcribed from Little Boy, 2005)

One can’t help but wonder - if the Pacific War led to peace since then, is that really so bad? I suspect I already know how the Chinese and Koreans regard this tragedy. (And why is it the Pacific War, anyway? Japan was engaged in Asian land wars or occupation or subversion for decades before Pearl Harbor.)

I’ll give another example for Anno. Numbers-kun translates part of an Anno interview with one of his favorite film-makers, Kihachi Okamoto:

Then some talk about Okamoto’s Nikudan. Anno watched it twice and Okamoto said it’s more than enough…Anno said he still remembered a lot of the scenes and how they are edited and linked. But the ones he watched most are Japan’s Longest Day [1968] and Okinawa Battle. He even played it as BGV [background video] when he was doing storyboarding at one time, and then slowly his attention was drawn to the video and ended up spending 3 hours watching it.

I have not been able to watch The Battle of Okinawa yet, but Animeigo’s liner notes do a good job indicating why it might be a tad controversial…

Okinawa came up in my Evangelion research, incidentally, because Okinawa comes up in Gunbuster as one of the (very subtle and easy for non-Japanese to miss) indications throughout that Japan has been restored to its rightful dominant place in the world53, in Evangelion there was a cut episode with a trip to Okinawa, and for End of Evangelion, OST commentary indicates that the victorious JSSDF shock forces (who cut down surrendering NERV personnel without mercy and burn them alive with flamethrowers) were intended to demonstrate man’s viciousness and inhumanity. During the nonfictional battle of Okinawa, of course, the victorious troops using flamethrowers were American. Very few (non-Japanese) people ever notice the Okinawa references in EoE.

Takahata’s films always seem to have that kind of laugh because we can’t do anything else humor.

But Isao Takahata being the director is one of the signs: recall that one of his other films was… Grave of the Fireflies.

Tedne suggests:

Someone claimed that it was a parable of the decline of the radical Left in Japan. I think it is a good parable of the decline and fall of indigenous communities. The Tanuki who kill themselves are simply trying to be true to themselves; same thing with their warfare. Under extreme threat people sometimes take extreme actions. There is no simple and compelling reason to either condemn or commend that.

It can be both; the radical Left - and Right, let’s not forget Yukio Mishima54 - had certain classic positions. What was the Left most opposed to? The security treaties with America and the bases Okinawa. They were young, energetic, and wished to revolutionize the world in service of an ideal, one might say - just like their noble kamikaze forebears. And likewise failed, for similar reasons.

Further, I disagree that the presented actions are normal. The pervasive suicide in Pom Poko is not a universal. People rarely commit suicide: groups fighting to the last man or committing suicide are so rare that they command considerable attention when they happen deliberately. One can command considerable attention just by threatening to kill oneself, and self-immolation - both in the Middle East and Asia - are compelling protests. In practice, people surrender, adapt, and live on. (Unsurprisingly!)

The concept of suicide-bombers and kamikazes live on because they are so unusual; lone assassins and fanatics may occasionally hazard certain death, but entire organized bodies of men? One has to look far for counterparts. (The Greeks at Thermopylae? But most of them survived. The concept of forlorn hopes at sieges? But they expected to win wealth & glory if they broke through, and certainly didn’t carry petards with them even if that might’ve been an effective idea.) Far more common in history is soldiers deserting or mutinying at what they consider a suicide mission. US observers, even knowing of the much-discussed suicidal strains in bushido like seppuku, were still shocked by the course of the Pacific War; so it was that Admiral Nimitz could write to the Naval War College:

The war with Japan has been [en-acted] in the game room here by so many people and in so many different ways that nothing that happened during the war was a surprise - absolutely nothing except the Kamikaze tactics towards the end of the war; we had not visualized those.55

Allegories can be difficult to understand the more remote and foreign they become: who can read Dante Alighieri’s Inferno and understand all the political or historical material without a scholarly apparatus? I think something similar is happening with Pom Poko. If we were to come up with a contemporary Islamic allegory, how would people react to it?

It’s not that hard to come up with an isomorphic version which would make an average Westerner a little uneasy: a tribe of cheerful Arabian Djinni under the good King of Djinn discover that oil drilling is extending into the Empty Quarter which they have lived in for so long; they declare jihad and attempt to fight back, using their magical powers, but while 1 or 2 rigs catch on fire after some male djinni magically blow themselves up and some other djinni can commandeer a truck to smash into the gate of an oil refinery, their efforts are generally futile. Dozens of djinni decide in their despair to permanently depart the world on a giant magic carpet bound for Paradise (where they hope for houris), while the rest wish together and perform one last spell in the urban streets of Riyadh: evoking the Golden Age of Baghdad and the One Thousand And One Nights with the bronze giant and roc and princes of Serendip and enchanted women and divers other fantastical characters & objects. Exhausted, they abandon their smoky forms to masquerade as ordinary turban, bisht, or hijab wearing immigrant workers & expats in the Saudi government & oil industries, only periodically showing their true colors.

# Alternate Futures: The Second English Restoration

The pricing of third-party candidates in political prediction markets is a difficult exercise in pricing low-probability outcomes which may well include genuine black swans. A case in point is the repeated pricing of libertarian/Republican Ron Paul for American president in Intrade, the Iowa Electronic Markets, & Bets of Bitcoin at a floor of ~1%; this pricing persists even long into the particular presidential campaign, well past the Democratic & Republican conventions, and up to Election Day. Part of this represents the inefficiencies of those markets, who make it difficult to profitably short contracts below 10% (leading to a long-shot bias), and due to Ron Paul fans who cannot face reality. But an unknown part of it is due to the observation that it is possible for a third-party candidate or a major-party dark horse to win and so the predictions should not be exactly 0%.

The American plurality election system (as opposed to some sort of proportional or probabilistic system) almost forces a polarized system of 2 parties, because any third party serves to split the vote of the closer party (and be split) and hence there’s strong incentive to somehow merge or for voters to force the merge by backing the stronger horse. So it’s not surprising that we see no third-party candidates elected to offices higher than Representative or Senator after the Democrat/Republican system solidified in the late 1800s/early 1900s, and Teddy Roosevelt demonstrated Duverger’s Law in practice with his 1912 Progressive Party (and Ralph Nader in 2000). On the other hand, plurality voting only forces there to be 2 parties, not that they be 2 specific parties or that each party remain consistent - the Progressive Party’s Teddy Roosevelt beat the Republican’s William Taft 27% to 23%, and in the late 2000s we saw something close to a hostile takeover or schism in the Republican party by the Tea Party (note the name), which while the Tea Party didn’t entirely succeed, it still had a dramatic impact on the composition and planning of the main Republican party. This is 2 near-misses in just 1 century with ~25 presidential elections.

Would you be willing to bet $1,000 to my$10 that from 2016-2116, every single President will be a Democrat or a Republican⸮ I wouldn’t! If we used Laplace’s rule of succession, we’d estimate $= 3.7%, and actually, I would be uneasy at any prediction under 5%! How would this 5% actually work out? There could be a split in one of them and the new party steal all the old think-tanks, voter lists, incumbents, and the whole laundry list of resources which power the giant parties to their assured victories; that’s one route. Or… there could be a convention fight. Conventions have an odd vestigial function in presidential elections: technically, the entire apparatus of caucuses and primaries doesn’t 100% determine who the delegates vote for at the convention! It’s understood - of course! who could possibly think otherwise‽ - that the delegates, even when not legally bound to vote for the person who won the most votes, will do so. Understood, which is another word for they could do otherwise. But delegates used to frequently changes who they’d vote for, throughout the 1800s for both parties. Why can’t this happen again? No real reason. There’s a gap between the formal powers of the convention and how everyone expects the convention to go, but such gaps are ripe for rare events to exploit. (A program might have a security vulnerability which requires 14 different bugs to exploit, which could never happen in practice just from random click or writing, until along comes one motivated hacker.) A similar thing is true of the Electoral College; it was not intended by the Founding Fathers to be a mechanical rubberstamp of voting totals, since if they had intended a direct election they would have simply wrote the Constitution that way, but to allow the electors to make their own choices. Here too we all expect them to be rubberstamps… but the formal powers are still there. The United States is far from alone in having some curious gaps between de facto and de jure powers. Every constitutional monarchy exemplifies this - and open up their own low-probability events. Constitutions sometimes have loopholes like emergency powers which are prudent precautions and of course would never be abused, until they are. (Who in 1870, seeing the emerging German economic & military giant under the leadership of the Kaiser and the realpolitik genius Otto von Bismarck, could have guessed that within 80 years the Kaiser would be a bad memory and a failed artist would have risen on mass approval to seize, quite legally and with surprisingly little opposition, all power to the utter ruin of the country?) England is an interesting example: the monarchy is a funny little thing for the tourists and tabloids, but suppose a driven strategic genius like Frederick the Great were crown prince and the Queen died tomorrow; do you really think that there would still be a <1% chance that in 50 years when he dies, England won’t be something like Singapore writ large⸮ The Royal Family is completely feckless and embarrassing (perhaps because they have no purpose but useless, or to be polite, ceremonial duties), but they possess a power-base that ordinary politicians would kill for: annual income in the dozens of millions, world-wide fame, the unthinking adoration of a still-significant chunk of the British masses, well-attended bully pulpits, and in general enough tradition & age & properties sufficient to beat down and render groveling the staunchest democrat. An Englishman would tell you that any attempt by a monarch to meddle in affairs would - of course! who could possibly think otherwise‽ - be slapped down by the real government and any de jure laws employed would be quickly repealed by Parliament. After all, their uncodified constitution is believed to say as much. (But who exactly carries out the orders of a constitution which doesn’t even have a physical embodiment⸮) But on the other hand, reserve powers still exist in the Commonwealth and are exercised from time to time. Maybe we can rule out a simple coup scenario. But a more subtle strategy carried out over decades? An Outside View doesn’t help too much in assessing such strategies. We certainly can point to existing monarchies with tremendous power and wealth who rule through a democratic framework: pre-WWII Japan saw considerable influence by the Emperor through the nominally democratic government, the monarchy of Thailand is widely believed - outside the reach of Thai censorship - to exert considerable control over Thai politics, and some countries like Saudi Arabia don’t have even that democratic framework. ~45 monarchies exist, of varying degrees of symbolism; just one country with powerful royalty would give us ~4% rate of predicting a powerful royalty in a country given the data that the country is also a monarchy, but we already know England is a weak symbolic monarchy. We are more interested in the change the English monarchy will cease to be symbolic in the next century. Is it more, equally, or less probably than a third-party winning? (We can think of the monarchy as an inactive third-party in the English political system.) In the absence of known attempts, it’s really hard to calculate - we can calculate that if there’s 1 success in 100 attempts, that gives us a point-estimate of $\frac{1+1}{100+2}=1.96$ but if we ask instead the 95% binomial proportion confidence interval of 1 success in 100 trials, we get 0-3%! Any big bets on it being 1% seem like a bad idea when it could easily be 0.1% or 3% instead… (This is not a surprise if you think about it a little: how could you be precise to as much or more than a single percentage when you only have 100 pieces of data? To narrow it down to a specific percentage will take more than that!) Statistics aside, we can ask a different question: are there multiple independent disjunctive paths to power (increasing the odds of it happening), or just one unlikely conjunctive path consisting of multiple necessary steps? What might a path to power look like? And specifically, one exploiting the formal gaps in power? Monarchies have been rising and falling throughout history, so it stands to reason that some managed to claw their way back from irrelevancy (the Meiji Restoration providing a well-documented example with far-reaching consequences). Formally, the English monarchy doesn’t seem to directly command either the police or military, and is under the Parliament which apparently can legally do pretty much anything it wants. So Parliament will figure in plans: Parliament must be co-opted, made to delegate powers, or simply neutralized. Since the constitution is unwritten, sufficient popularity would enable the monarch to do anything or at least shift the Overton window to its desired policies. An example of a strategy for neutralizing Parliament: a young crown prince is gifted with a copy of Edward Luttwak’s Coup d’Etat: A Practical Handbook; he enters the military (as is usual for the royal family) and begins building a power-base or deep state using his good looks, hard work, heritage, and also his inherited wealth (helping out impoverished retired officers, sponsoring parties, etc.). He leaves the military to go into politics, gradually easing his way in (pushing the Overton window to make this acceptable); during a major crisis - perhaps a second Great Depression? - which highlights the fecklessness of the civilian government, his cabal of young turks stages a lightning bloodless coup to restore the legitimate monarch to de facto control over the civilian government, and who immediately calls for the Parliamentary elections which the existing Parliament had been delaying since it was fearful of voter anger, fears which immediately prove justified as the new king’s favored candidates sweep in. The king now controls the military, is legitimized by a popular aegis, and has a compliant Parliament to enact his new deal. The public can be counted on to remain passive and accept the changes in the Overton window, just as the American public could be counted on post-9/11 to acquiesce to anything. (Yes, we are postulating a remarkable crown price here: it is rare for someone to be handsome and intelligent and driven by a nigh-sociopathic lust for power and extroverted or charming; however, a century is multiple generations and our story only requires 1 such person. His low probability is just evidence that the current English royal family is self-sabotaging its prospects - by indulging in the demographic transition and having so few kids! When you need a win from the genetic lottery, you cannot afford to buy few tickets. If nothing else, the spare heirs can make themselves useful by gathering power-bases in various business industries or government agencies; they’ll almost have to, given the limited royal funds. The other steps in this scenario, while all less than likely, do not seem extremely unlikely.) We can think of an even more interesting strategy! Consider the very long perspective: way back in 1066 when William the Conqueror conquered England, he technically owned the whole place as spoils of war. Where did it all go? Well, most of it went to his supporters as their reward, sooner or later. And we can’t appeal to the formal/informal gap and have the monarchy repossess it because the sales usually included clauses about the sales being permanent or perpetual, which are hard to escape. But actually, billions is left! Why isn’t the Queen a billionaire, really? Because it’s all controlled by Parliament in a strange agreement dating back to 1760 in which the monarchy gets a sort of pension called the Civil List for paying the bills of the Royal Households of the United Kingdom which runs to ~$10 million annually, and in exchange Parliament controls the entirety of the Crown Estate - worth a cool ~$11 billion and yielding ~$300 million annually. It’s clear that Parliament has the better end of this deal, and also clear that our hypothetical prince won’t be running much of a campaign based on the gleanings from his politically-vulnerable income of $10 million. The formal/informal gap may help here. This agreement turns out to have been modified since 1760 at the start of each new reign, because the new monarch has to agree to the arrangement! It’s understood that he or she will immediately agree - of course! who could possibly think otherwise‽ - but here is a chink. Control over a fortune of$11b goes a very long way towards building a genuine power-base.

The question of the Crown Estate and the deal’s stability has been discussed from time to time; the longest discussion I’ve seen is a 1901 essay by G. Percival Best on The Civil List and the Hereditary Revenues of the Crown. He mentions many interesting details, for example provisions in the relevant laws which trigger only if the monarchy decides to not surrender the Crown Estate income: eg.

1. The Hereditary Excise Duties: These were granted to the Crown in 1660 by the Acts 12 Car II c 24 in lieu of the feudal rights then abolished. Various re-arrangements were made from time to time, whereby some of the duties ceased to be payable. The remaining duties, being duties on ale, beer, and cider brewed in Great Britain, are in abeyance but will revive in the event of the Crown at any future time not making the usual surrender…

2. Compensation for Wine Licence Revenue: The revenue from wine licences ceased to form part of the Hereditary Revenues in 1757, when by the Act 30 Geo II c 13 the annual sum of £7,002 14s 3d was granted to the Crown in lieu thereof. This will be payable to the Crown in the event of any resumption of the Hereditary Revenues.

Best confirms my suspicions that between the deal and the provisions in law for the deal lapsing, the only real barrier to a new monarch is that great bugaboo, custom or the unwritten constitution or public opinion56:

That His present Majesty had a legal right to resume possession of these Hereditary Revenues is clear from the provisions of the Civil List Act, 1837, but whether he could constitutionally have done so is open to question. It has been said that the arrangements by which the Crown at the beginning of each reign surrenders its life interest in the Crown lands and other Hereditary Revenues, though apparently made afresh on each demise of the Crown, is really an integral part of the Constitution and could not be abandoned.2 This view was shared by Spencer Walpole, who, writing with reference to the surrender of the casual revenues by William IV, stated that a surrender of this kind once made was virtually irrevocable. It would have been as impossible for any future Sovereign to have resumed a revenue which his predecessors had surrendered as it would have been impracticable for him to have restored the Star Chamber, or to have made the appointment of the Judges dependent on his pleasure.3 The late Professor Freeman’s words on the point are equally emphatic. After discussing the rights of the Crown and of the public over the Crown lands he continued, A custom as strong as law now requires that at the beginning of each fresh reign the Sovereign shall, not by an act of bounty but by an act of justice, restore to the nation the land which the nation lost so long ago.4

…If, therefore, the King exercised his legal right and resumed possession be would only be entitled to retain a sum sufficient for the support of his household and family in a state befitting the Royal dignity. The remaining produce would have to be devoted to the public service. As in the last resort it would be for Parliament to say what sum the King should retain, the advantage of a resumption instead of a surrender is problematical.

Note that this alone could still be very useful for our would-be Frederick the Great - since this seems to imply that in a resumption, the monarchy will gain complete control of how it spends its allowance, and more importantly, how any properties in the Crown Estate are disposed of or contracted about.

With these legalities in mind, we can imagine a new scenario: The old monarch dies, and the crown prince succeeds. He declines to surrender, whereupon if Parliament strikes back by insisting the state budget must now be maintained by his Crown Estate (which is of course these days grossly inadequate), he beseeches Parliament to authorize the usual taxes to close the gap in his funding… This puts them in a fascinating dilemma: if they refuse, he carries on the most limited core functions and abandons everything else, causing people and especially those dependent on state subsidies to hate Parliament and sweep monarchists in during the next election which he of course has called; while if they agree, he now has full power of the purse and can begin building up his power base with wise administration to withstand the future attacks of Parliament.

Legislatures are rarely known for their courage and for being willing to hazard enormous upheaval, but there doesn’t have to be too insane upheaval - that’s the threat to Parliament: sure, you can take my bet if you think I’m bluffing and then pass appropriate laws later, but do you want to?

We can analogize this brinksmanship to American government shutdowns: who will the voters blame for being unreasonable and inflicting the pain & suffering? The 1995 shutdown was widely interpreted as a victory for the Democrats and a defeat for Republican architect Newt Gingrich (who of course has argued that this interpretation is wrong and it was actually a victory57 despite Clinton’s boosted approval rating).

Another interesting example of the Overton window and the frailty of custom, besides the obvious point that the Founding Fathers would not recognize the current giant federal government or understand how their carefully-written Constitution could have permitted such a thing (whatever good reasons underlie the growth), is the explosion of the filibuster from a legislative judo move which was understood to be a key tool of the minority (and whose removal by the majority would be the nuclear option) whose invocation was personally taxing (internalizing the costs, eg. Mr Smith Goes to Washington) and used only in rare circumstances (like the English reserve powers! How about that⸮). So much for the camaraderie of the Senate and centuries-old custom.

# Possible Amazon Mechanical Turk surveys/experiments

• test my theory on why Ken Liu’s The Paper Menagerie is the most critically acclaimed SF/Fantasy short story in history:

…part of my objection is a lurking sense that Orientalism and/or diversity promotion lies behind the triple win. It’s a good story, yes, but let me ask you this.

Liu’s story could easily turned into a story about a half-German boy in America mocked for being a filthy Nazi whose mother came from the German wasteland post-WWII and who spoke mostly German while making Scherenschnitte for her son who spurned the paper cutout animals and later realizes the cutouts formed German words (in Fraktur, which is a pretty hard to read family of fonts) with the same ending - do you think this hypothetical The Scherenschnitte Menagerie would win even 1 single award, much less all 3?﻿

• Sunk cost: see whether manipulation of learning affects willingness to endorse sunk costs
• backfire effect idea: manipulation of argument selection affects backfire effect?
• followup SDr’s lipreading survey, unexpected and contrary to my theory
• can one manipulate the subadditivity effect in both directions for cryonics? In one version, enumerate all the ways things can go right and in another all the ways it can go wrong.

# Surprising Turing-complete languages

Any sufficiently complicated C or Fortran program contains an ad hoc, informally-specified, bug-ridden, slow implementation of half of Common Lisp.Greenspun’s Tenth Law

Turing-completeness (TC-ness) is the property of being able to, under some simple representation of input & output, compute any suitably-written program.

TC-ness, besides being foundational to computer science and understanding many key issues like why a perfect antivirus program is impossible, is also weirdly common: it turns out that given even a little control over input into something which transforms input to output, one can typically leverage that control into full-blown TC-ness. This can be amusing, useful, harmful58, or extremely insecure & a cracker’s delight (see language-theoretic security). Surprising examples of this behavior remind us that TC-ness lurks everywhere, and security is extremely difficult.

They are probably best considered as a subset of discovered or found esoteric programming languages (esolangs). So FRACTRAN, as extraordinarily minimalist as it is, does not count; nor would a deliberately-obfuscated language like Malbolge (where it took years to write a trivial program) count because it was designed to an esolang; but neither would Conway’s Game of Life count because questions about whether it was TC appeared almost immediately upon publication, and so it turning out to be TC is not surprising. Many configuration or special-purpose languages or tools or complicated games, like MediaWiki templates, sed, XSLT, Infinite Minesweeper Dwarf Fortress59, Starcraft, Minecraft, Ant, C++ templates etc. are TC but these are not surprising either: TC may be as simple as including syntax for calling out to a better-known language like shell or Perl. Similarly, such feats as creating a small Turing machine using Legos would not count, since we already know that mechanical computers work. What is surprising may differ from person to person.

1. Richard Hamming, You and Your Research

2. Say Goodnight, Grace (and Julia and Emma, too). New York Times Magazine

3. Wikipedia again

4. The area of a sphere is given by the equation: $\frac{4}{3}×\pi ×{r}^{3}$
1 AU = $149.60×{10}^{6}$ kilometers
30 AU = $30×149.60×{10}^{6}$, or $4.488×{10}^{9}$ km
55 AU = $55×149.60×{10}^{6}$, or $8.228×{10}^{9}$ km
So the shell is the volume of the outer sphere minus the inner sphere:
$\left(\frac{4}{3}×\pi ×\left(8.228×{10}^{9}{\right)}^{3}\right)-\left(\frac{4}{3}×\pi ×\left(4.488×{10}^{9}{\right)}^{3}\right)$, or $1.9546466984296578×{10}^{30}$.

5. Shōtetsu; 59 An Animal in Spring; Unforgotten Dreams: Poems by the Zen monk Shōtetsu; trans. Steven D. Carter, ISBN 0-231-10576-2

6. Fujiwara no Teika; pg 663 of Donald Keene (1999), Seeds in the Heart: Japanese Literature from Earliest Times to the Late Sixteenth Century, Columbia University Press, ISBN 0-231-11441-9

7. Cited in The Futurist November 2010

8. Childhood: Hearing Loss Grows Among Teenagers, New York Times:

The new study, published Wednesday in The Journal of the American Medical Association, analyzed data on about 1,771 youngsters aged 12 to 19 who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey of 2005-6, and compared the prevalence of hearing loss with that of youngsters who took part in the survey in 1988-94. The percentage with at least slight hearing loss increased by 30%, to 19.5% from 14.9% in the earlier study. For most the hearing loss is slight enough they may not even notice.

9. Claude E. Shannon, Prediction and entropy of printed English, Bell Systems Technical Journal, pp. 50-64, Jan. 1951

10. H. Moradi, Entropy of English text: Experiments with humans and a machine learning system based on rough sets, Information Sciences, An International Journal 104 (1998), 31-47

11. T. M. Cover, A convergent gambling estimate of the entropy of English, IEEE Trans. Information Theory, Volume IT-24, no. 4, pp. 413-421, 1978

12. Peter Grassberger, Data Compression and Entropy Estimates by Non-sequential Recursive Pair Substitution (2002)

13. Rapper Ricky Brown apparently set a rapping speed record in 2005 with 723 syllables in 51.27 seconds, which is 14.1 syllables a second; if we assume that a syllable is 3 characters on average, and go with an estimate of 1.3 bits per character, then the bits per second (b/s) is $14.1×3×1.3$, or 55 b/s. This is something of a lower bound; Korean rapper Outsider claims 17 syllables, which would be 66 b/s.

14. See Universal Entropy of Word Ordering Across Linguistic Families, Montemurro 2011

15. Which would be a sort of Huffman encoding; see also Entropy, and Short Codes.

16. Word lengths are optimized for efficient communication: We demonstrate a substantial improvement on one of the most celebrated empirical laws in the study of language, Zipf’s 75-y-old theory that word length is primarily determined by frequency of use. In accord with rational theories of communication, we show across 10 languages that average information content is a much better predictor of word length than frequency. This indicates that human lexicons are efficiently structured for communication by taking into account interword statistical dependencies. Lexical systems result from an optimization of communicative pressures, coding meanings efficiently given the complex statistics of natural language use.

17. If we argue that vowels are serving a useful purpose, then there’s a problem. There are only 3 vowels and some semi-vowels, so we have at the very start given up at least 20 letters - tons of possibilities. To make a business analogy, you can’t burn 90% of your revenue on booze & parties, and make it up on volume. Even the most trivial error-correction is better than vowels. For example, the last letter of every word could specify how many letters there were and what fraction are vowels; a means there was 1 letter and it was a vowel, A means 1 consonant, b means 2 vowels, B means 2 consonants’, c means 1 vowel & 1 consonant (in that order), C means the reverse, etc. So if you see John looked _tc Julian, the trailing c implies the missing letter is a vowel, which could only be a.

This point may be clearer if we look at systems of writing. Ancient Hebrew, for example, was an abjad script, with vowel-indications (like the niqqud) coming much later. Ancient Hebrew is also a dead language, no longer spoken in the vernacular by its descendants until the Revival of the Hebrew language as Modern Hebrew, so oral traditions would not help much. But nevertheless, the Bible is still very well-understood, and the lack of vowels rarely an issue; even the complete absence of modern punctuation didn’t cause very many problems. The examples I know of are striking for their unimportance - the exact pronunciation of the Tetragrammaton or whether the thief crucified with Jesus immediately went to heaven.

18. An early study found that reading speed in Chinese and English were similar when the information conveyed was similar (Comparative patterns of reading eye movement in Chinese and English); A cross-language perspective on speech information rate investigated exactly how a number of languages traded off number of syllables versus talking speed by recording a set of translated stories by various native speakers, and found that the two parameters did not counter-balance exactly:

Information rate is shown to result from a density/rate trade-off illustrated by a very strong negative correlation between the IDL and SRL. This result confirms the hypothesis suggested fifty years ago by Karlgren (1961:676) and reactivated more recently (Greenberg and Fosler-Lussier (2000); Locke (2008)): It is a challenging thought that general optimalization rules could be formulated for the relation between speech rate variation and the statistical structure of a language. Judging from my experiments, there are reasons to believe that there is an equilibrium between information value on the one hand and duration and similar qualities of the realization on the other (Karlgren 1961). However, IRL exhibits more than 30% of variation between Japanese (0.74) and English (1.08), invalidating the first hypothesis of a strict cross-language equality of rates of information.

19. Least effort and the origins of scaling in human language, Cancho 2002. From the abstract:

In this article, the early hypothesis of Zipf of a principle of least effort for explaining the law is shown to be sound. Simultaneous minimization in the effort of both hearer and speaker is formalized with a simple optimization process operating on a binary matrix of signal-object associations. Zipf’s law is found in the transition between referentially useless systems and indexical reference systems. Our finding strongly suggests that Zipf’s law is a hallmark of symbolic reference and not a meaningless feature. The implications for the evolution of language are discussed

20. How We Know, by Freeman Dyson in The New York Review of Books (review of James Gleick’s The Information: A History, a Theory, a Flood)

21. from Coding Theory II in The Art of Doing Science and Engineering, Richard W. Hamming 1997:

I was once asked by AT&T how to code things when humans were using an alphabet of 26 letter, ten decimal digits, plus a space. This is typical of inventory naming, parts naming, and many other naming of things, including the naming of buildings. I knew from telephone dialing error data, as well as long experience in hand computing, humans have a strong tendency to interchange adjacent digits, a 67 is apt to become a 76, as well as change isolated ones, (usually doubling the wrong digit, for example a 556 is likely to emerge as 566). Thus single error detecting is not enough…Ed Gilbert, suggested a weighted code. In particular he suggested assigning the numbers (values) 0, 1, 2, …, 36 to the symbols 0,1,…, 9, A, B, …, Z, space.

…To encode a message of n symbols leave the first symbol, k=1, blank and whatever the remainder is, which is less than 37, subtract it from 37 and use the corresponding symbol as a check symbol, which is to be put in the first position. Thus the total message, with the check symbol in the first position, will have a check sum of exactly 0. When you examine the interchange of any two different symbols, as well as the change of any single symbol, you see it will destroy the weighted parity check, modulo 37 (provided the two interchanged symbols are not exactly 37 symbols apart!). Without going into the details, it is essential the modulus be a prime number, which 37 is.

…If you were to use this encoding, for example, for inventory parts names, then the first time a wrong part name came to a computer, say at transmission time, if not before (perhaps at order preparation time), the error will be caught; you will not have to wait until the order gets to supply headquarters to be later told that there is no such part or else they have sent the wrong part! Before it leaves your location it will be caught and hence is quite easily corrected at that time. Trivial? Yes! Effective against human errors (as contrasted with the earlier white noise), yes!

22. Men die at higher rates than women at all ages after conception. Although women around the world report higher morbidity than men, their mortality rates are usually around half of those of men. The evidence, at least from the US, suggests that women experience similar suffering from similar conditions, but have higher prevalence of conditions with higher morbidity, and lower prevalence of conditions with higher mortality so that, put crudely, women get sick and men get dead, Case and Paxson (2005) [abstract].

23. This is a little misleading; dimensional analysis is much more like type-checking a program in a language with a good type system like Haskell. Given certain data types as inputs and certain allowed transformations on those data types, what data types must be the resulting output? But the analogy is still useful.

24. eg. if someone asks you how many piano tuners there are in Chicago, don’t look blank, start thinking! Well, there must be fewer than 7 billion, because the human race isn’t made of piano tuners, and likewise fewer than 300 million (the population of the United States), and heck, Wikipedia says Chicago has only 2.6 million people and piano tuners are rare, so there must be many fewer than that

25. Tristane Banon came forward only after the maid, and Khan’s calm behavior after the maid incident suggests he considered it routine. Both facts suggest that the probability of public revelation, if you will, is fairly low, and so we ought to expect numerous previous unreported such liaisons. (An analogy: a manager catches an employee stealing from the till. The employee claims this was the first time ever and he’ll be honest thenceforth. Should the manager believe him?)

26. If this is such common knowledge, one wonders what the wives think; during sex scandals, they seem to remain faithful, when other women divorce over far less than such public humiliation. Why would Khan’s wife - the wealthy and extremely successful Anne Sinclair - remain linked with him? I’ve seen it suggested that such marriages are open relationships, where neither party expects fidelity of the other, and like many aristocratic marriages of convenience, the heart of the agreement is to not be caught cheating. In Khan’s case, perhaps Sinclair judges him not fatally politically wounded, with still a chance at the French presidency. It is an interesting question how conscious such considerations are; Keith Henson has an evolutionary theory somewhat relevant - that women (in particular) can transfer their affections to powerful males such as captors to safeguard their future reproductive prospects.

On the other hand, in June 2012, newspapers were reporting that Sinclair had separated from him, which is consistent with the interpretation that she felt it was her duty to not stab her husband in the back immediately but wait for the scandal to die down. On the gripping hand, June 2012 is well after a crushing French Socialist defeat of Sarkozy on all political fronts; President Holland’s victory & elevation could be seen as scuttling Strauss-Khan’s future prospects for that exact position, and Sinclair’s separation merely a cold-blooded cutting her losses on Strauss-Khan. The latter seems less likely than the former, since I seem to recall a number of politicians’ wives waiting a discreet period before separating or divorcing.

And of course, we can’t rule out less cynical explanations; for example, perhaps the wives are commendably optimistic about finding forgiveness for their wayward spouses & the chances of patching up their marriages, and it simply takes them that year or two to give up.

27. National-level legislators usually being well-educated and well-off, when they are not mega-millionaires like John Kerry or millionaires like Barack Obama.

28. Minorities and women being rare even now.

29. In 2001, The Journal of Family Psychology summarized earlier research, finding that infidelity occurs in a reliable minority of American marriages. Estimates that 20-25% of all Americans will have sex with someone other than their spouse while they are married are conservative, the authors wrote. In 2010, NORC, a research center at the University of Chicago, found that, among those who had ever been married, 14% of women and 20% of men admitted to affairs.

Baumeister 2010, Is There Anything Good About Men? pg 242 puts it much higher:

According to the best available data, in an average year, well over 90% of husbands remain completely faithful to their wives. In that sense, adultery is rare. Then again, if you aggregate across all the years, something approaching half of all husbands will eventually have sex with someone other than their wives…There are many sources on adultery and extramarital sex. The best available data are in Laumann, E. O., Gagnon, J. H., Michael, R. T., & Michaels, S. (1994). The social organization of sexuality: Sexual practices in the United States. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. For an older, but thoughtful and readable introduction, see Lawson, A. (1988). Adultery: An analysis of love and betrayal. New York: Basic Books.

Taormino 2008, Opening Up:

There’s another significant indicator that monogamous marriages and relationships aren’t working: cheating is epidemic. The Kinsey Report was the first to offer statistics on the subject from a large study published in 1953; it reported that 26% of wives and 50% of husbands had at least one affair by the time they were 40 years old. Other studies followed, with similar findings. According to the Janus Report of 1993, more than one-third of men and more than one-quarter of women admit to having had at least one extramarital sexual experience. 40% of divorced women and 45% of divorced men reported having had more than one extramarital sexual relationship while they were still married.’ In a 2007 poll conducted by MSNBC and iVillage, half of more than 70,000 respondents said they’ve been unfaithful at some point in their lives, and 22% have cheated on their current partner.

30. One interesting perspective is the rate of false paternity: a rough consensus of 4% of all children. (Cochran prefers estimates around the 1% range.) Since the per-sex-act pregnancy risk is estimated at 1-5% by various health sites we can ask the question of the Poisson distribution: what is the median number of sex-acts (outside the holy bounds of matrimony) for each of these children? The median is ~28 (this is a lower bound since not all pregnancies come to term). So if ~20% of the USA is children under 14, the US population is ~310m, ~4% of the children are misattributed, and each such child implies 28 illicit sex-acts, then we can give a loose lower bound of annual adultery per year to be $\frac{0.2×310,000,000×0.04×28}{14}=4,960,000$

31. According to the most reliable estimate available, eight members of Congress have committed suicide (Eisele 995). Amer (1989) reported only seven, but the 1925 suicide of Senator Joseph McCormick (R-IL), who overdosed on barbiturates, was subsequently made public (Miller 1992). Senator Lester Hunt (D-WY) is the only member to have killed himself in the Russell Office Building. He did so after supporters of Senator Joseph McCarthy (R-WI) threatened to publicize the arrest of Hunt’s son for committing homosexual acts in a Washington park unless Hunt withdrew from his 1954 re-election campaign - an incident that provided the inspiration for Allen Drury’s (1959) novel Advise and Consent.

• Eisle, Albert 1995. Members of Congress No Strangers to Violent Deaths, The Hill (September 6)
• Amer, Mildred 1989. Members of the U.S. Congress Who have Died of Other Than a Natural Death While Still in Office: A Selected List. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service
• Miller, Kristie 1992. Ruth Hanna McCormick: A Life in Politics 1880-1944. Albuquerque: University of New Mexico Press

If there are 535 members of Congress and each has a career of 22 years, and we look at the 88 years of 1925-2013, then that is >=8 suicides spread over 4 blocks or a $\frac{8}{535×4}×100=$ 0.37% suicide rate; but in general, suicide in the USA is a leading cause of death at around 100,000 deaths a year. Estimating total lifetime risk is harder, but some searching turned up Nock et al 2008 with estimates for US adults of suicide attempts somewhere around 1.9-8.7%, which if another estimate is right that out of every 10 attempts 1 succeeds may imply that the Congressional risk is equivalent (1.9%/10 < 0.37) or lower (8.7/10 > 0.37). For comparison, alcoholics have 2-3% lifetime risk

32. Edwards is a good example because the news about his mistress Rielle Hunter was broken by the National Inquirer - in 2008, 1 year before he admitted the relationship and 3 years before he admitted being the illegitimate child’s father as well.

33. To be clear, ’~Seeing-neutrino-burst’ means something like ’the equipment or staff screwed up and the lack of observation is some mistake or bad luck’. In this case, both theories think that the neutrino burst does exist.

34. In the 2009 LessWrong survey, 94/73.4% were consequentialists, and those who didn’t believe in morality were only one fewer than the deontologists! (There were 5 virtue ethicists, to cover the last major division of modern secular ethics.) The results were similar in the 2011 & 2012 surveys.

35. Is That What Love is? The Hostile Wife Phenomenon in Cryonics, by Michael G. Darwin, Chana de Wolf, and Aschwin de Wolf; HTML version

36. Anne, commenting on Overcoming Bias

37. Until Cryonics Do Us Part, NYT, Kerry Howley

38. JS Allen, commenting on Katya Grace’s post on hostile wives, Why do respectable women want dead husbands?

39. I always wondered - suppose one cultivates a character of generosity, bravery, etc. How does that character decide? Virtue ethics seems like buck-passing to me.

40. Charles Darwin, On the Origin of Species, (1st ed.)

41. This is also true of new content in general; they are not a pure win, but impose additional costs on catalogers and collectors and libraries and whatnot. This is true even when they do not take a common name or word as their title, as lamentably many new works do. New works in general are hard to justify; see Culture is not about Esthetics.

42. Ludwig Wittgenstein’s Zettel, 447

43. National Affairs: Deepfreeze Defense, Time, 27 January 1947

This week, as U.S. strategists studied the azimuthal map of the Arctic (see cut), it looked as though Seward had been right about Greenland; and Lansing wrong. The U.S. frontier is now on the shore of the Arctic Ocean. Thanks to Seward’s Folly, the fortress of North America has a castellated outpost at the northwest angle in Alaska. But at the northeast angle it has only tenuous base rights, to expire with the peace.

So long as U.S. servicemen-even radio beacon operators and weathermen-remain at Greenland outposts, the U.S. is exposed to verbal sniping from Moscow for keeping troops on foreign soil. But with the Soviets trying to muscle in on Norway’s Spitsbergen (TIME, Jan. 20), Washington military men thought this might be as good a time as any to buy Greenland, if they could.

Greenland’s 800,000 square miles make it the world’s largest island and stationary aircraft carrier. It would be as valuable as Alaska during the next few years, before bombers with a 10,000-mile range are in general use. It would be invaluable, in either conventional or push-button war, as an advance radar outpost. It would be a forward position for future Rocket-launching sites. In peace or war it is the weather factory for northwest Europe, whose storms must be recorded as near the source as possible.

It’s a little-known fact that Seward also was interested in Greenland. In 1946 - long after Seward’s time - the United States seems to have made a formal offer of $100 million for Greenland, according to declassified documents discovered about ten years ago in the National Archives. The purpose of the acquisition, wrote a state-department official, was to provide the United States with valuable bases from which to launch an air counteroffensive over the Arctic area in the event of attack. Secretary of State James Byrnes suggested the idea to the Danish foreign minister, but the record does not reveal whether the Danes formally turned down the offer or just ignored it. 44. This was a fairly difficult and ugly calculation; we’ll have to make some gruesome assumptions and approximations here. Fortunately, the total value of Denmark’s subsidy isn’t that important to the overall argument because all the other numbers are so dismal. (Better calculations are welcome.) Economy of Denmark told me that Denmark had a$188b GDP in 2005, and the Greenland article claims a $512m subsidy in 2005, so the subsidy = 0.27% of that year’s GDP. A time-series of Danish GDP is hard to come by, so I ultimately went to the Penn World Table Version 6.1 and asked it for Real Gross Domestic Income (RGDPL adjusted for Terms of Trade changes) (see 5. Adjustment for Changes in the Terms of Trade: RGDPTT [20] in their appendix) between 1950 and 2000. This is not the data I wanted, but it is better than nothing. With a percentage in mind and the data available, the calculation is fairly easy: sum$ map (0.0027 *) [8130.66, 7798.41, 8060.55, 8569.56, 8817.04, 8769.47, 8887.68,
9210.72, 9413.06, 10273.77, 10773.04, 11357.40, 11907.76, 12060.87, 13044.24,
13570.60, 13890.28, 14212.31, 14643.65, 15608.56, 15847.24, 16142.49, 16985.90,
17415.87, 16536.29, 16373.67, 17309.97, 17415.79, 17812.97, 18054.61, 17644.67,
17123.93, 17667.56, 18095.44, 18749.36, 19490.52, 20643.30, 20640.86, 21291.20,
21333.19, 21573.87, 21649.87, 21933.63, 21789.76, 22917.37, 23532.41, 24086.62,
24850.91, 25494.56, 25942.25, 26916.01]
~>
2274.11

I’m not entirely sure how to interpret this figure - only $2.3b or is it not even in millions? So I took an alternate approach. NationMaster gives a 1950 Denmark GDP per capita figure (apparently real) of$6,683.00; the Danish population in 1950 was 4,281,275 so multiply is $28.6b, which seems reasonable compared with a 2005 GDP of$188b. Assuming linear growth, we can average them and multiply by the interval ($\frac{28.6+188}{2}×\left(2005-1950\right)$) to get the total GDP of $5956.5b, and we assumed a constant 0.27% of the GDP so $5956.5×0.0027=16.083$ billion. That seems pretty reasonable. (Imagine working backwards:$0.5b in 2005 + ~$0.5b in 2004 + ~$0.5b in 2003, and we’re already closing in on a solid $2b.) 45. A Melting Greenland Weighs Perils Against Potential, NYT, 23 September 2012: It has long been known that Greenland sat upon vast mineral lodes, and the Danish government has mapped them intermittently for decades. Niels Bohr, Denmark’s Nobel Prize-winning nuclear physicist and a member of the Manhattan Project, visited Narsaq in 1957 because of its uranium deposits. But previous attempts at mining mostly failed, proving too expensive in the inclement conditions. Now, warming has altered the equation. Greenland’s Bureau of Minerals and Petroleum, charged with managing the boom, currently has 150 active licenses for mineral exploration, up from 20 a decade ago. Altogether, companies spent$100 million exploring Greenland’s deposits last year, and several are applying for licenses to begin construction on new mines, bearing gold, iron and zinc and rare earths. There are also foreign companies exploring for offshore oil. For me, I wouldn’t mind if the whole ice cap disappears, said Ole Christiansen, the chief executive of NunamMinerals, Greenland’s largest homegrown mining company, as he picked his way along a proposed gold mining site up the fjord from Nuuk, Greenland’s capital. As it melts, we’re seeing new places with very attractive geology. The Black Angel lead and zinc mine, which closed in 1990, is applying to reopen this year, said Jorgen T. Hammeken-Holm, who oversees licensing at the country’s mining bureau, because the ice is in retreat and you’re getting much more to explore.

46. NYT 2012:

But even as warming temperatures are upending traditional Greenlandic life, they are also offering up intriguing new opportunities for this state of 57,000 - perhaps nowhere more so than here in Narsaq. Vast new deposits of minerals and gems are being discovered as Greenland’s massive ice cap recedes, forming the basis of a potentially lucrative mining industry. One of the world’s largest deposits of rare earth metals - essential for manufacturing cellphones, wind turbines and electric cars - sits just outside Narsaq. This could be momentous for Greenland, which has long relied on half a billion dollars a year in welfare payments from Denmark, its parent state. Mining profits could help Greenland become economically self sufficient, and may someday even render it the first sovereign nation created by global warming.

47. NYT 2012:

Many important political decisions are pending for Greenland’s government. The national labor union wants it to ban the use of low-wage crews from abroad because it does not want local pay scales undermined or jobs lost to foreign workers. But there are not enough native workers to build mines without outside help.And for development to go forward, the government will have to revise a longstanding zero tolerance policy for the mining of radioactive material, an outgrowth of Denmark’s adamantly antinuclear stance. Rare earth metals are nearly always intertwined with some radioactive elements. Simon Simonsen, the mayor of South Greenland, which includes Narsaq, said that most residents of the area had overcome initial fears and accepted the levels of radioactive material involved. If we don’t get this mine, he said, Narsaq will just get smaller and smaller.

48. For an extended analysis of Gunbuster, see:

49. speculated to have visually influenced Evangelion’s Gendo Ikari because of the gloves

50. Quoted in The bomb and the computer: wargaming from ancient Chinese mapboard to atomic computer, Wilson 1969

51. Which I regard as quite nugatory, much like the Englishman Shaw in Back to Methuselah:

The lieutenants of God are not always persons: some of them are legal and parliamentary fictions. One of them is Public Opinion. The pre-Darwinian statesmen and publicists were not restrained directly by God; but they restrained themselves by setting up an image of a Public Opinion which would not tolerate any attempt to tamper with British liberties. Their favorite way of putting it was that any Government which proposed such and such an infringement of such and such a British liberty would be hurled from office in a week. This was not true: there was no such public opinion, no limit to what the British people would put up with in the abstract, and no hardship short of immediate and sudden starvation that it would not and did not put up with in the concrete. But this very helplessness of the people had forced their rulers to pretend that they were not helpless, and that the certainty of a sturdy and unconquerable popular resistance forbade any trifling with Magna Carta or the Petition of Rights or the authority of parliament. Now the reality behind this fiction was the divine sense that liberty is a need vital to human growth. Accordingly, though it was difficult enough to effect a political reform, yet, once parliament had passed it, its wildest opponent had no hope that the Government would cancel it, or shelve it, or be bought off from executing it. From Walpole to Campbell-Bannerman there was no Prime Minister to whom such renagueing or trafficking would ever have occurred, though there were plenty who employed corruption unsparingly to procure the votes of members of parliament for their policy.

52. Discussing the impact of the government shutdown on the Republican Party, Gingrich later commented that, Everybody in Washington thinks that was a big mistake. They’re exactly wrong. There had been no reelected Republican majority since 1928. Part of the reason we got reelected … is our base thought we were serious. And they thought we were serious because when it came to a show-down, we didn’t flinch.[71] In a 2011 op-ed in The Washington Post, Gingrich said that the government shutdown led to the balanced-budget deal in 1997 and the first four consecutive balanced budgets since the 1920s, as well as the first re-election of a Republican majority since 1928.[72] How closely we can analogize American government shutdowns to an English resumption of the Crown Estate is an interesting question. If Congress fails to pass a budget, the Treasury default procedure is to stop cutting checks to everyone who must then make do with their existing budgets or income (eg. the postal service can continue running on its fees), which inflicts tremendous pain as so much of the economy and population is linked to the government. But would Parliament really insist on the monarch resuming paying for government? If it does, would the bureaucracy really try and fail to pay for things with the Crown Estate revenue? What happens next? The simplest outcome may just be that it becomes a fait accompli. As large a sum as it is, \$200m must be put into context: it is not going to single-handedly break the English budget or substantially exacerbate its structural problems.

53. An active area of research is into languages & systems carefully designed and proven to not be Turing-complete (eg. total functional programming). Why this effort to make a language in which many programs can’t be written? Because TC-ness is intimately tied to Godel’s incompleteness theorems & Rice’s theorem, allowing TC-ness means that one is forfeiting all sorts of provability properties: in a non-TC language, one may be able to easily prove all sorts of useful things to know; for example, that programs terminate, that they are type-safe or not, that they can be easily converted into a logical theorem, that they consume a bounded amount of resources, etc.

54. DF provides clockwork mechanisms, so TC-ness is unsurprising; but the water is implemented as a simple cellular automation, so there might be more ways of getting TC-ness in DF!