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Darknet Market mortality risks

Survival analysis of lifespans, deaths, and predictive factors of Tor-Bitcoin darknet markets

I compile a dataset of 87 public English-language darknet markets (DNMs) 2011–2016 in the vein of the famous Silk Road 1, recording their openings/closing and relevant characteristics. A survival analysis indicates the markets follow a Type TODO lifespan, with a median life of TODO months. Risk factors include TODO. With the best model, I generate estimates for the currently-operating markets.

The most striking aspect of darknet markets (DNMs; online websites selling drugs and other goods using cryptocurrencies), after the fact that they are so successful and exist at all, is how much turnover there is. The casual observer of DNMs will quickly become confused by the sheer number of DNMs over time, and their short lifetimes. How many are there? What predicts longer or shorter lifetimes? Why are they so transient? How do they die? Here I try to shed some light on these questions by tabulating all known launched English-language DNMs from the invention of the business model by Silk Road 1 up through 2016. I am interested in websites selling drugs over Tor or i2p, using cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin/Litecoin/Dogecoin, allowing multiple sellers other than the site operators, and providing some sort of escrow functionality. This excludes clearnet sites like Topix, single-vendor shops like Modern Culture or Bungee54, carding shops like Tor Carders Market, hosting services like Cryuserv or Bad Wolf, DNM-focused forums like The Hub, and forums for buyers & sellers to deal directly with each other like The Majestic Garden.

Foreign language markets are excluded because I cannot navigate them1; DrugMarket, Bigshop & a few others are excluded because they reportedly have always been a scam (similarly for most sites listed on the notoriously wrong Hidden Wiki); the Majestic Garden & Underground Market Board 3.0 are excluded because they are forums & do not do escrow for their users; Grand Trunk never left beta & had actual sales.

Data

Variables:

  • start/end dates are, when possible, the date of the first & last known sales/withdrawals; otherwise they are rounded to my first/last visit to them; or to the start/end of the month they appeared/disappeared

  • closure: whether the shut down was due to law enforcement, precipitated by a hack or de-anonymization, a scam/theft by operators, or voluntary (without known losses to users)

  • arrested: whether the principal operator/owner/maintainer of the marketplace was arrested for running it (this excludes hired staff)

  • multisig: whether 2-of-3 escrow supported; 2-of-2 and other ‘lite’ versions are not considered multisig because they still allow for thefts

  • i2p: whether i2p is used in addition/instead of Tor

  • hacks: number of publicly known hacks resulting in leaks of user information, loss of funds, etc

  • doxed: whether a plausible candidate for site operators has been made publicly known by law enforcement or other people

  • codebase: the origin of the source code for a site where anything is publicly known; ‘custom’ simply means the site operators seem to have written it themselves

  • coin: principal cryptocurrency of marketplace; if multiple coins are accepted, I list the most prominent altcoin

  • guns: whether firearms were sold, specified in rules/policies as allowed to be sold, or rules/policies specified there were no bans on item categories

  • fraud: whether carding items like credit card dumps were sold etc (this does not include fake IDs or informational guides on how to commit fraud; the former have uses besides carding, and the latter are often outdated or just scams)

Table

A table of 87 DNMs (updated 2019-06-09):

Market

Start

End

Alive

Closure

Arrested

URL

Multisig

I2P

Bitcoin

Litecoin

Dogecoin

Darkcoin

Codebase

Guns

Fraud

Hacks

Doxed

Notes

Silk Road 1

2011-01-31

2013-10-02

FALSE

raided

TRUE

silkroadvb5piz3r.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

FALSE

FALSE

2

TRUE

SR1 temporarily sold guns as part of “the Armory” but only for a brief time as sales were poor.

BlackMarket Reloaded

2011-06-30

2013-12-02

FALSE

hacked

FALSE

r6rcmz6lga4i5vb4.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

TRUE

TRUE

1

FALSE

backopy stopped buying on 2 Dec aggravated in part by a big theft, fully shutdown by 23 December. May reopen. BMR permitted gun sales, and also seems to have permitted credit card information sales, judging by angry feedback.

Atlantis

2013-03-26

2013-09-20

FALSE

scam

FALSE

atlantisrky4es5q.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

unknown

FALSE

FALSE

0

FALSE

Atlantis’s shutdown seems, judging by comments on Reddit pages & All Things Vice to have initially allowed withdrawals, but disabled it after a few days and then stole the remaining deposits+escrow+vendor-bonds.

Sheep Marketplace

2013-02-28

2013-11-29

FALSE

scam

TRUE

sheep5u64fi457aw.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Nette

FALSE

TRUE

1

TRUE

withdrawals were halted before 29 Nov, but deposits & sales were ongoing. I choose 29 Nov as the day where the Sheep scam became irrefutable. Strictly speaking, an operator has not been arrested as of 2015-03-27, but the suspected operator is in legal trouble over money-laundering of large Bitcoin-related sums.

Deepbay

2013-06-30

2013-11-04

FALSE

scam

FALSE

deepbay4xr3sw2va.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

unknown

FALSE

FALSE

0

FALSE

Disappeared with funds; based on a screenshot of categories, seems to have been almost exclusively drugs.

Budster

2013-10-10

2013-10-20

FALSE

scam

FALSE

budsterga5hcdxjn.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

WordPress

FALSE

FALSE

1

TRUE

https://www.reddit.com/r/Budster/comments/1ove9w/has_anyone_made_a_purchase_yet/ccw8srh https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1xyixa/psa_cyruserv_is_down_for_good_budster_taf_hosting/ Budster did not seem to use genuine multisig and this enabled the scam: https://www.reddit.com/r/SilkRoad/comments/1opmha/budster_the_worlds_first_p2p_marketplace/

Project Black Flag

2013-10-14

2013-10-28

FALSE

scam

FALSE

ajd4yqq7ngzmqo3p.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

FALSE

TRUE

1

FALSE

https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1peguv/pbf_rip/ ; forums: blackiiw5nozs6i5.onion; policies stated on forums (“Prohibited: Weapons, counterfeit money, stolen goods, child pornography, posting other users information, attempt to cause harm, spamming.”)

TorMarket

2013-11-07

2013-12-22

FALSE

scam

FALSE

tormarkozaegyvco.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

unknown

FALSE

TRUE

1

FALSE

Part of the TorMarket user list was leaked by DPR2 on SR2F; TM also admitted other security issues, but further rumors that TorMarket’s shut down was precipitated by a hack by “Profesorhouse” have not been substantiated. TM may have used Bitwasp, but it didn’t seem to have Bitwasp error pages and doesn’t really look like the usual Bitwasp DNM.

FloMarket

2013-12-01

2014-01-01

FALSE

hacked

FALSE

fmkt3wixc772jxyj.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Bitwasp

2

FALSE

Apparently hacked 2013-12-20 (previously noted to be hackable); withdrawals began failing on 2014-01-01 & FloMarket announced a second hack on 2014-01-06; for the operator’s explanation, see his interview

Tortuga

2013-12-16

2014-01-05

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

tortugauwngwecwd.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Seagull

0

FALSE

Advertised in the SR2F on 2013-12-19; advertised on the BMR forums on 16 Dec. Up on 2014-01-01, down on 2014-01-09 & afterwards. No news about reasons for its closure. No official rules on listings were posted before it disappeared, probably because it was unpopular enough that content was not an issue.

BlackBox Market

2013-11-12

2014-02-01

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

77yqlxe7pnxhnxvi.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

unknown

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Interesting site, but not sure it should be listed here. Start date based on Reddit. Site stopped responding 2014-02-01. On-site escrow did not use multisig (“We do not make use of the Escrow services provided by Bitcoin itself as this associates buyers and sellers.”) Policies based on the fact that BBM could not know what was being sold on it and so de facto permitted both categories.

GreyRoad

2014-01-04

2014-02-01

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

greyroaderw4qymd.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

unknown

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Went public 2013-01-04 (2), operator claims to have been selling for a while but refuses to provide any specifics & very few sellers on market so opening date is used; forums: grforums5qwzbhkl.onion. URL stopped working 2014-02-01

Cantina

2014-01-20

2014-02-07

FALSE

hacked

FALSE

vsudl2g3em6qhcw4.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Nette

TRUE

TRUE

3

TRUE

Cantina spammed vendors on SR2F on 2014-01-20; earliest known mention of the market. It was repeatedly hacked & doxed. Cantina had no stated policies, but it did have a category for guns and given the ‘Data’ categories & general lack of ethics & greed, highly likely would have permitted carding had it not died so ignominiously.

Breaking Bad

2014-02-01

2014-02-06

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

breakingnartglxd.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Announced on Reddit; site went down 6 February, owner explained shutdown due to “Lack of interest from vendors, constant hate mail, downvotes and claims on security vulnerabilities”

Black Goblin Market

2014-02-03

2014-02-04

FALSE

hacked

FALSE

ua4aptglh45m5p6b.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Drupal

TRUE

TRUE

0

TRUE

Announced on Reddit; I de-anonymized the site, so it shut down. The “Black Goblin Rules” page does not mention any ban of guns or carding.

Cannabis Road

2014-02-03

2014-02-07

FALSE

hacked

FALSE

ji4wrifhsnawaw7t.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

FALSE

FALSE

1

TRUE

Announced on The Hub; thoroughly hacked & de-anonymized

Utopia

2014-02-03

2014-02-11

FALSE

raided

TRUE

ggvow6fj3sehlm45.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

CakePHP

TRUE

TRUE

0

TRUE

forums: ysas7uv4drg7rlwv.onion; forms opened in early January, site opened to ex-BMR sellers late January, general buyers only allowed in February. Dutch seizure notice posted ~7:30AM EST, followed by 5 arrests in Netherlands & Germany

Black Services Market

2013-12-02

2014-02-01

FALSE

scam

FALSE

thebsm6okkbx7fik.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

OSclass

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Start date based on oldest listing when I checked on 2013-12-26; last admin forum post 18 Jan & PMs to him disabled, reports of escrow problems in late Jan/early Feb, many complaints on forums; site went down 2014-02-14

Red Sun Marketplace

2014-03-20

2014-03-23

FALSE

hacked

FALSE

redsun4lvjrxwwuy.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Bitwasp

FALSE

TRUE

1

FALSE

Announced on Reddit; hacked (SQli etc); forum: forumsyccj7ekvvv.onion. Surviving materials don’t say whether guns were permitted, but given the operator’s interest in recruiting fake ID vendors it seems more likely than not that carding sales would have been allowed.

BuyItNow

2013-04-30

2014-02-17

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

buyitnowquyft7dx.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

WordPress

TRUE

FALSE

0

FALSE

Site did not respond on 2014-02-17 or afterwards; no reports on shutdown reason or whether it was a scam. Policies not specified, but many listings for guns, and none of any kind related to carding.

White Rabbit

2013-12-23

2014-02-01

FALSE

scam

FALSE

rabbittorvr74veg.onion

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

unknown

TRUE

TRUE

0

TRUE

Start date based on Reddit posts. Formerly named “Rabbit’s Marketplace”. Unable to find reports of successful sales on The Hub or Reddit, and WR withdrawal has been broken at least since 2014-02-21; no one has claimed withdrawals recently. Dead date is based on the February news notice “There are problems with payment gateway”. Forum states only CP is banned (“Items which are not allowed: child porn (and other sick stuff).”) i2p: wrmarket.i2p. IP was found to be leaking.

FreeBay

2013-12-01

2014-02-28

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

freebay3yxuebsog.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

unknown

FALSE

TRUE

0

FALSE

URL is also apparently litebay7vp5pm77f.onion (FreeBay took Bitcoin, LiteBay took Litecoin); open date is guess based on Reddit post; site was not up on 2014-02-28 when I checked. Policies not specified, but many carding & no gun listings.

drugslist

2014-01-08

2014-02-28

FALSE

scam

FALSE

drugslisvdknitqd.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

FALSE

FALSE

1

FALSE

Withdrawals began failing & admin ceased responding in February 2014; date closure to the forum admin account’s last login.

Doge Road

2014-01-18

2014-03-13

FALSE

scam

FALSE

dogeroadiqt6olb6.onion

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

Bitwasp

FALSE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Announced on Reddit; forums: dogeroadqmu2yzcg.onion. Went down sometime in March 2014, may have gone bad in late February.

TorEscrow

2014-02-02

2014-04-19

FALSE

scam

FALSE

torescrow7upglhe.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

unknown

FALSE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Initially just an escrow, but TE expanded into a market. Forums: 4rtvonaubslk7vvk.onion. TE seems to have permitted carding: “We do not allow the sale of weapons, pornography, ebooks, pirated software or hits.”

Armory Vendor Market

2014-02-06

2014-04-07

FALSE

scam

FALSE

armoryx7kvdq3jds.onion

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

Quick.Cart

TRUE

FALSE

1

FALSE

Announced on Reddit; their Cryuserv hosting, according to the hacker, dated back to 2013-05-23 but it’s unclear when they had their first sale. It announced use of Darkcoin in March 2014.

Darknet Nation

2014-02-19

2014-03-01

FALSE

hacked

FALSE

26a2ueoc3xxrrgs4.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Joomla

TRUE

TRUE

0

TRUE

Announced on Reddit; Q&A. The site leaked its IP address. Down2014-04-03; best guess, shut down sometime in March (the administrator’s last post on The Hub was 2014-03-01.)

Sanitarium Market

2014-02-20

2014-03-28

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

sanitarium-market.i2p

FALSE

TRUE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Bitwasp

0

FALSE

Announced on Reddit; long address: dhd5okd2imkskbhsrlbs5c4nx3cdtmwpplvcei6o3l2sc35kt4ma.b32.i2p; Tor mirror: nyu7nlbj33ym2va3.onion. Unreachable by DeepDotWeb2014-03-28, and last subreddit activity was 2014-03-19. The operator claimed on 2014-02-24 to have integrated multisig but I can’t find any reports of use of it. No surviving info indicates whether weapons or carding were allowed.

Hansa

2014-03-09

2014-03-20

FALSE

raided

TRUE

hansann7wim5ier2.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Bitwasp

TRUE

TRUE

0

TRUE

Announced on Reddit & de-anonymized; closure date based on last transaction by their IP. They planned to implement multisig but seem to have shut down before it went live. Bitwasp classification based on two comments & screenshot of login page. They appeared to be a voluntary shut down but had been subverted by Dutch police & multisig disabled & turned into a honeypot for monitoring buyer addresses, seller geotagged images, and malware.

EXXTACY

2014-03-23

2014-03-24

FALSE

hacked

FALSE

j3gwwsnswrg7dtf4.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Drupal

0

TRUE

Announced & de-anonymized on Reddit. No information about policies is available, although since it seems to’ve been run by Sanitarium, it likely had whatever they did. Died before any rules announced or mirrors made.

Mr Nice Guy

2014-03-29

2014-04-20

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

niceguymn4plorwb.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Bitwasp

FALSE

FALSE

0

TRUE

Announced on Reddit; forum: ngforumjj4dkis7w.onion. IP was leaking.

TorBay

2013-12-18

2014-04-20

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

tyedahhf56xli7xp.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

hyops

FALSE

TRUE

0

TRUE

Start date based on Reddit announcement; ceased responding in April 2014, after listings had fallen to near-zero.

DarkBay

2014-01-30

2014-05-01

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

darkbay4rwgvdkqn.onion

TRUE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

unknown

FALSE

TRUE

0

TRUE

Announced on Reddit; forums: 7y26aczl3wdyujkc.onion; formerly, UltraVioletCity/ultracityi2gdwhq.onion. “There is very little restriction here, we only ask that you do not sell firearms (rifles, pistols, automatic weapons etc) or child pornography (photographs, videos etc).” Merged with Andromeda?

Pigeon Market

2014-04-14

2014-05-07

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

pigeonkcmw5h44lq.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

unknown

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Unknown what happened to funds.

Free Market

2015-01-14

2015-02-26

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

tfmarket6iaddx45.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

FALSE

FALSE

0

FALSE

Announced on Reddit

Tortuga 2

2014-04-23

2014-06-17

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

l6hkncqo46wgzx7y.onion

TRUE

TRUE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

Drupal

FALSE

FALSE

0

FALSE

Announced on Reddit; i2p: wtat6dgz57j5xllu2j7htb7aydq5rgls6edg7e6lf2tumqn5ej3a.b32.i2p/tortuga-marketplace.i2p; multisig; ; unknown what happened to funds.

Deepzon

2014-05-14

2014-07-13

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

deepzondhyl3yaro.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

unknown

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Support’s response: “Guns/Weapons are allowed, we thought that would be clear, as we are having the category ‘Weapons’ listed. CC-Dumps are also allowed.”’ ; unknown what happened to funds.

Silk Street

2014-04-08

2014-08-04

FALSE

scam

FALSE

silkr2xyqsu73qhh.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Bitwasp

FALSE

FALSE

0

FALSE

Announced on The Hub; no reports of withdrawals, so marked false. No explicit policies, but UI shows many empty categories but no empty categories for fraud or gun items, so I presume those were not permitted.

Underground Market

2014-04-09

2014-08-26

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

unground6baopdio.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Bitwasp

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Announced on Reddit; forums: vxcwhb4lzqltfauq.onion. Shut down citing “not enough customers”.

Cannabis Road 2

2014-03-28

2014-08-25

FALSE

hacked

FALSE

cannabiskofvl7pa.onion

TRUE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

FALSE

FALSE

1

FALSE

Forum: forumzxmoorof4ja.onion; forum opened 2014-02-26, but site was not operational. The soft-launch/raffle announced 2014-03-28 seems a good start date. Was hacked & lost >$179021.43₿2002014 from escrow (while multisig was available, very few buyers used it).

Pandora

2013-10-21

2014-08-19

FALSE

scam

FALSE

pandorajodqp5zrr.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

FALSE

TRUE

2

FALSE

See “Forbidden Items on PANDORA”. Pandora has had 2 hacks: the first was a rogue moderator using an admin account, and the second was a loss of half the centralized escrow (repaid by levying extraordinary transaction fees). The operator eventually locked out all seller accounts around 19/2014-08-20 (definitely by 1 September) and disabled withdrawals & the site forums, but continued accepting deposits from buyers; he may also have captured login credentials and robbed accounts on other marketplaces according to several sellers. Targeted in Operation Onymous but had already turned scammer.

Pirate Market

2013-11-29

2014-08-15

FALSE

scam

FALSE

yjhzeedl5osagmmr.onion

TRUE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

unknown

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Start date based on Reddit. Originally RoadSilk; multisig. Site reportedly began blocking withdrawals ~2014-08-15 while still accepting deposits, with the Pirate Market forum being shut down several days later.

Freedom Market

2014-09-16

2014-09-25

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

freedom3qg7hmtxn.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Bitwasp

FALSE

FALSE

0

FALSE

Announced on Reddit; went down without notice sometime before 2014-09-25. Site rules: “If the item doesn’t hurt others, you can sell it.”; the categories included “Forgeries” but nothing else, so carding probably counted as ‘hurting others’.

1776

2014-04-19

2014-10-02

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

n6tzonxy7sod7eqt.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

ASP.NET

FALSE

FALSE

0

FALSE

Announced by DeepDotWeb & on Reddit. Not Bitwasp, given the traceback on error pages. No policy documentation. Disappeared starting 2014-10-03.

Silk Road 2

2013-11-06

2014-11-05

FALSE

raided

TRUE

silkroad6ownowfk.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

FALSE

FALSE

2

TRUE

Forum moderator Cirrus advises considering SR2 compromised (2013-12-22, ironic inasmuch as Cirrus was the LE undercover agent who undid SR2 and helped with SR1); new operators Defcon/Hux/etc deny it. Defcon announced the cold wallet had been lost to DPR2, but then that it had been restored. SR2 experienced repeated account balance problems, failed to ever implement autofinalize or dispute resolution (forcing accumulation of orders’ balances), and announced 2014-02-13 that all deposits & escrow had been stolen, followed by another hack in September 2014. Use of SR was not advised. Was raided by Operation Onymous & Defcon arrested.

Hydra

2014-03-27

2014-11-05

FALSE

raided

TRUE

hydrampvvnunildl.onion

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

Bitwasp

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Announced on The Hub; forum: hydrafmchvpq5yc6.onion. Operator arrested in Hungary as part of Operation Onymous. (Apparently unrelated to the Russian Hydra still in operation as of January 2019.)

Cloud-Nine

2014-02-11

2014-11-05

FALSE

raided

FALSE

xvqrvtnn4pbcnxwt.onion

TRUE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Cloud-9

FALSE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Announced on Reddit; on banned items. Raided in Operation Onymous.

Blue Sky

2013-12-03

2014-11-05

FALSE

raided

FALSE

blueskyplzv4fsti.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

unknown

FALSE

FALSE

0

FALSE

Or is the opening 2013-12-12? Raided in Operation Onymous.

TorBazaar

2014-01-26

2014-11-05

FALSE

raided

FALSE

bazaarlv2a7i3uyn.onion

TRUE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Bitwasp

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Announced on The Hub; original centralized escrow site: 3p42y56a76g6okuv.onion; forums: 22iwhc2luicynjqy.onion

Topix 2

2014-03-25

2014-11-05

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

topixslhezyytrvm.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

FALSE

FALSE

0

FALSE

Started January 2014; opened to public 2014-09-28, previously was invite-only; start date based on first sale listed in recent-feedback page; apparently drug-only based on the listings. Shut down without notice after Operation Onymous.

Alpaca Marketplace

2014-04-20

2014-11-05

FALSE

scam

FALSE

alpaca727o3c75xx.onion

TRUE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

unknown

TRUE

FALSE

1

FALSE

Announced on The Hub; policies based on Secret Laboratory writeup Hacked mid-May 2014. Alpaca allows weapons (but not poisons/WMDs/hitmen) and appears to ban carding: “We do not allow items that are advertised as stolen.” Shut down after Operation Onymous (seizure notice) without returning any funds.

Cannabis Road 3

2014-10-06

2014-11-05

FALSE

scam

FALSE

cannabis37oj24rd.onion

TRUE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Alpaca

FALSE

FALSE

0

FALSE

Forum: forumz2gljo2vhzb.onion. After CR2 was hacked, developer “Crypto” disappeared; the remaining staff set up a new marketplace hosted by Alpaca Marketplace. Went down with Alpaca after Operation Onymous

Andromeda

2014-04-05

2014-11-18

FALSE

scam

FALSE

andromedam363aux.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

unknown

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Formerly Silk Road 3/silkroad3wqdnifp.onion; site has no connection to SR1 or SR2. Forums: dvzuhtlteonn6mwd.onion. Andromeda attempted to mask its exit scam as an Operation Onymous but it wasn’t announced as seized and the broken withdrawals & failed mimicry show it’s bogus.

The Marketplace

2013-11-28

2014-11-09

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

themarketplace.i2p

TRUE

TRUE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

FALSE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Start date from personal communication; Tor Proxy: 43y5mwjvhxd6zf7v.onion. The ToS ban CP, guns, and Bitcoin/dollar sales. Site went down 9 November, without any further notice. (The use of multisig means buyers & sellers can still complete the final transactions.)

Onionshop

2014-05-18

2014-09-17

FALSE

hacked

FALSE

onionshopkue7sxr.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

TRUE

1

FALSE

Announced on Reddit; hacked 2014-09-17 (announcement, hacker)

TOM

2014-05-10

2014-12-18

FALSE

scam

FALSE

tom3j5jkjl7327oc.onion

TRUE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Bitwasp

FALSE

FALSE

0

FALSE

Forums: tomf2fo56wthggwk.onion. TOM disappeared without any announcements; Reddit comments report deposits were not returned, so I mark TOM a scam.

Area51

2014-06-20

2015-01-24

FALSE

scam

FALSE

fiftyonecrklhzhe.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Spammed on The Hub; implementation is PHP on Debian, admin states “area51 is complete selfcoded and we have nothing to do with bitwasp”. Centralized escrow & no reports of deposits being returned.

Panacea

2014-10-27

2015-02-13

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

panaceaz4give75l.onion

TRUE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Cloud-9

FALSE

FALSE

1

TRUE

Reddit ANN; forums: flower777wpnxpkj.onion; cannabis-only; admin “PyroWolf” was reportedly doxed by the cannabis seller EastCoastCollective (likely the operator of CR2/CR3, and possibly CR1 as well), who he was a former customer of. Closure obscure - staff blames an AWOL developer and the multisig coins to be safe, but a throwaway claims to’ve hacked it.

evolution

2014-01-14

2015-03-14

FALSE

scam

FALSE

k5zq47j6wd3wdvjq.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Laravel

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Announced on Reddit 20 Jan, but forums claim first sale on 14 January; forums: i25c62nvu4cgeqyz.onion; new url: nifgk5szbodg7qbo.onion; claimed multisig but on further investigation, seems to be the weak kind. PHP framework. Site & forums went down 2015-03-18 but large withdrawals began failing ~2015-03-14, marking the start of the exit scam. Former employee claims $63956787.39₿130,0002015 lost.

Ironclad

2015-03-17

2015-03-25

FALSE

scam

FALSE

ironcladcoc3chq6.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

ANN; forums: forum.ironcladcoc3chq6.onion. Disappeared without notice during the post-Evolution chaos & Tor DoS attacks in March 2015; as a centralized market, all escrow & deposits are presumed stolen.

Kiss

2015-02-19

2015-05-16

FALSE

scam

FALSE

kissmpg5zave56f4.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

FALSE

FALSE

1

FALSE

ANN; forum: 6bssxspijk7n2ioh.onion; Kiss moderator claims hacked 2015-05-21 then operator decided to exit-scam. I date to 2015-05-16, however, as I was unable to log in starting then.

BlackBank Market

2014-02-05

2015-05-18

FALSE

scam

FALSE

wztyb7vlfcw6l4xd.onion

TRUE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

unknown

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Active before its Reddit announcement but no apparent sales. Forums: kth2mwuwlkezwziy.onion. Forbidden items are listed on the wiki. BB went down without notice ~2015-05-18, with no communications afterwards; complicating the usual exit-scam story is that none of the bitcoins appear to have moved in weeks and the admin, many months ago, had alluded to serious health issue.

Tornado

2015-05-12

2015-05-20

FALSE

FALSE

tornadoputkhrvfq.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

0

FALSE

ANN; forums: tortalkmcguzevvz.onion; went down ~20 May without any public comments.

Havana/Absolem

2015-04-13

2015-05-22

FALSE

hacked

FALSE

havana3cofejesta.onion

TRUE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

0

FALSE

Opened initially invite-code-only; forums: forumz4usxavgyri.onion; pentester whyusheep/hacksforcrack turned on Havana-Absolem, DoSing/hacking them; the admins gave up, talking about perhaps trying a private market instead.

Agape

2015-05-29

2015-06-04

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

agape3brimud5fk6.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

0

FALSE

ANN. Voluntarily shut down due to lack of interest and “backlash”.

Zanzibar Spice

2015-05-07

2015-06-14

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

mithrakushhvfyto.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

FALSE

FALSE

0

FALSE

ANN; server began throwing errors 2015-06-14 with no market communication.

Dream Market

2013-11-15

2019-04-30

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

ltxocqh4nvwkofil.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

unknown

FALSE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Site claims to’ve opened 2013-11-15; first mention of it I found was on 2014-01-07. Later moved to lchudifyeqm4ldjj.onion/. Shutdown background: DoJ, Dark Owl

Agora

2013-12-03

2015-09-06

FALSE

voluntary

FALSE

agorahooawayyfoe.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Forums: lacbzxobeprssrfx.onion. Agora banned guns 2015-07-15 after ~20 gun busts became known; nevertheless, for most of its lifespan it allowed guns. Agora announced 2015-08-25 that it would be going offline indefinitely to deal with Tor deanonymization attacks; withdrawals were enabled and DNstats indicates the site went offline around 2015-09-06.

Outlaw Market

2013-12-29

2017-05-16

FALSE

hacked

FALSE

drugs26ucskmvcef.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

TRUE

FALSE

3

FALSE

Open date based on the date of the “Welcome” post on the OM forum; apparently formerly “Drugs’n’Bets”. Site was hacked & user PMs released in 2013; site shut down 2014-07-31 after an attack blame on former admins when “A SESSION-hack was performed and a couple of datasets manipulated but not much damage created”. They claim in an interview it’s custom software; this is confirmed by a leak of PHP source which does not call any frameworks/CRMs. Policies based on no apparent hits among mirrors. Ex-staff insist it was not an exit scam but a genuine hack.

Middle Earth Marketplace

2014-06-22

2015-11-04

FALSE

scam

FALSE

mango7u3rivtwxy7.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Django

FALSE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Announced on Reddit. Exit-scammed sometime around October-November 2015; some issues with withdrawals reported in late October, then the site went down for ‘maintenance’ around 2015-11-04, and coins were definitely being moved by the admins by 2015-11-06 .

Diabolus/SR3

2014-10-13

2017-02-12

FALSE

FALSE

qxvfcavhse45ckpw.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

custom

FALSE

FALSE

0

FALSE

Cannabis-only. Unclear when it shut down so I assign it the same date as CM, which was operated by the same team.

Nucleus Marketplace

2014-10-24

2016-04-13

FALSE

scam

FALSE

nucleuspf3izq7o6.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

TRUE

FALSE

TRUE

Laravel

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Went down 2016-04-13 according to DNstats & Reddit. Apparent non-movement of market coins has prompted speculation about arrests, but no busts has been announced as of 2016-08-18.

Abraxas

2014-12-13

2015-11-05

FALSE

scam

FALSE

abraxasdegupusel.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

Laravel

FALSE

TRUE

0

FALSE

forums: abraxasgacelesox.onion Went down 2015-11-05 according to DNstats and several months later the wallet may’ve been drained.

AlphaBay

2014-12-22

2017-07-05

FALSE

raided

TRUE

pwoah7foa6au2pul.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Announced on Reddit

Silk Road Reloaded

2015-01-13

2016-02-27

FALSE

FALSE

silkroadreloaded.i2p

FALSE

TRUE

TRUE

TRUE

TRUE

TRUE

custom

FALSE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Full I2P address: hyn3mwmyeovcn2paujxur2eury2ufqpoahvbbqshfoggljn25tra.b32.i2p. I’m uncertain when it closed - last subreddit activity 2016-02-27 but may have still been alive as of May 2016 or later.

Tochka

2015-01-30

TRUE

FALSE

tochka3evlj3sxdv.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

TRUE

TRUE

TRUE

custom

FALSE

FALSE

0

FALSE

Announced on Reddit; site rules ban “Counterfeit documents” which I interpret as banning carding in general.

Crypto Market

2015-02-14

2017-02-12

FALSE

scam

FALSE

cryptomktgxdn2zd.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

ANN; CM is run on / by Diabolus and not entirely separate. According to DNstats.net, Crypto Market was last observed up on 2017-02-12, but there are complaints in January 2017 on Reddit so I’m not sure when it really went down. In any case, the escrow funds apparently were not returned.

Mr Nice Guy 2

2015-02-21

2015-10-14

FALSE

scam

FALSE

niceguyfa3xkuuoq.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

FALSE

FALSE

0

TRUE

Operator claims doxing was just of “a volunteer”. Went down October 14, 2015 according to DNstats.

TheRealDeal

2015-04-09

2016-10-22

FALSE

FALSE

trdealmgn4uvm42g.onion

TRUE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Bitwasp

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Interview, ANN; forums: forum5cijl4suew6.onion. Multiple staffers were arrested & the site went down for a while but came back up, leading to questions about whether it had been subverted. Last observed by DNstats.net on 2016-10-22. Unclear why it shut down: LE, exit scam, or otherwise? Or to what extent its multisig worked.

Oxygen

2015-04-16

2015-08-27

FALSE

scam

FALSE

o2oxycuvnwxhv73e.onion

TRUE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

FALSE

TRUE

1

FALSE

ANN. Was hacked around January 2015 by a vendor exploiting an early finalization bug to scam customers. Went down 2015-08-27 according to DNstats.

East India Company

2015-04-28

2016-01-01

FALSE

scam

FALSE

g4c35ipwiutqccly.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

FALSE

FALSE

1

FALSE

ANN; EU-only. Claims to’ve lost $14027.6₿302015 to a hacker in early August 2015. EIC went down ~2016-01-01–2016-01-02 for a week or so, then a maintenance message, then came back up but withdrawals failed; finally, went down for good 2016-02-01 according to DNstats.

Haven

2015-05-05

2015-06-06

FALSE

scam

FALSE

havenpghmfqhivfn.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

custom

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

ANN Went down 2015-06-06 according to DNstats; not much discussion of its closure.

Anarchia

2015-05-07

2016-05-09

FALSE

FALSE

tkmlejimlt72jnkm.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Bitwasp

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

ANN. Still around 2015-07-09 judging from spam for it; may have gone down 2016-05-09 for unclear reasons. No discussion of its closure on Reddit, DDW, The Hub, or I can find in Google.

Darknet Heroes League

2015-05-27

2017-08-05

FALSE

hacked

FALSE

darkheroesq46awl.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

0

FALSE

Not explicitly announced. Disappeared after vulnerabilities & IP disclosed.

Poseidon

2015-06-02

2015-06-29

FALSE

scam

FALSE

poseidonzskufuwb.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

TRUE

0

TRUE

Server de-anonymized by TheRealDeal ~2015-06-02 & was in Latvia. From the few mentions of it afterwards, Poseidon apparently disabled withdrawals and then disappeared within a few months.

Amazon Dark

2015-06-08

2015-10-25

FALSE

scam

FALSE

amazon435hm6h3ye.onion

TRUE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

0

FALSE

ANN. Around 2015-10-22–2015-10-25, complaints began appearing about administrators not responding & withdrawals failing; former spokesperson says it was an exit scam; went down 2015-10-28, according to DNstats.

Simply Bear

2015-06-20

2015-10-21

FALSE

scam

FALSE

llog4svhkcb5txld.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

0

FALSE

ANN. Went down 2015-10-21 according to DNstats; no mentions of whether it might’ve shut down earlier anywhere else.

Horizon Market

2015-05-23

2015-07-08

FALSE

scam

FALSE

horizon77qneerav.onion

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

TRUE

0

FALSE

Was French-only until mid-June 2015; opening date based on earlier last-seen dates for the lowest-numbered vendors. Disappeared sometime before 2015-07-08, according to the DDW changelog.

See also DeepDotWeb’s list (changelog), DNstats2, the DNM market list, and the Hidden Wiki (last updated 2014-08-30).

DNM lifetimes, sorted by when a market opened, colored by how it closed.

I may add to the table other variables; possibly useful ones:

  • 2-factor-authentication

  • Vendor PGP enforced

  • FE status

  • ideology: whether the operator seems ideological (I suspect SR1 may have lasted longer than most post-SR1 markets because Ulbricht’s agorist ideology meant he was not profit-motivated & refused to do an exit scam or shutdown when SR1 was being extorted and may even have been running at loss; but after watching markets in 2014-2015, it seems that such a variable is unlikely to be useful: Ulbricht is the only one clearly ideological, and the rest seem to be aping it or too quiet to tell. Just because the operators say something doesn’t mean they believe it, and many say nothing.)

  • volume (at what time?)

  • how much money was lost when the site scammed or was hacked (only reasonably known for a few scams…)

  • apparent nationality of operator

  • media coverage

  • number of employees (can official claims be trusted?)

  • mandatory role separation (fully-separate buyer/seller/admin/staff accounts)

Analysis

TODO:

“The death rate of bitwasp marketplaces will always be higher because it lowers the barrier of entry to starting and launching your own BTC marketplace so less technical people with lesser funds to start the marketplace will use it and that demographic has a higher chance of failure.”

From a predictive standpoint, it doesn’t much matter why Bitwasp correlates with shorter lifetimes - whether it’s through greater likelihood of being hacked or self-selection by weak-willed/poor/uncommitted/incompetent operators. As long as it does, it’ll improve predictions by predicting shorter lifetimes for Bitwasp-using marketplaces, and so it’s less safe for buyers: even if the marketplace is using multisig, there’s still some limited scope for an exit scam; it wastes one’s investment in learning how to use a marketplace; and sellers lose any bond they put up. (Multisig is great and I’ve been advocating for it for a long time, but it’s not a silver bullet.)

In any case, I can try checking if using Bitwasp correlates with being hacked, not just shut down. The sample is currently small enough that the results won’t mean much regardless, though.

library(XML)
library(RCurl)
html <- getURL("https://gwern.net/dnm-survival#table")
black <- readHTMLTable(html, colClasses = c("factor", as.Date, as.Date, "logical", "factor", "logical", "character", "logical", "logical", "logical", "logical", "logical", "logical", "factor", "logical", "logical", "integer", "logical", "character"))[[1]]
black[black$Codebase=="",]$Codebase <- "unknown"
black$Start <- as.Date(black$Start); black$End <- as.Date(black$End)
black[is.na(black$End),]$End <- Sys.Date() # assuming the table is up to date
black$Age <- black$End - black$Start
black$Age <- as.integer(black$End - black$Start)

# for some markets, these values are impossible to find: they were never decided on, or the market is gone
# there's only a few, so I'm not sure the complexity of multiple-imputation is worthwhile (MICE objects work with almost no libraries...)
# so for the 2 relevant columns so far, I do a simple impute of the median/mode value
black[is.na(black$Fraud),]$Fraud <- as.logical(median(black$Fraud, na.rm=T))
black[is.na(black$Guns),]$Guns   <- as.logical(median(black$Fraud, na.rm=T))

# for competing-risks modeling
levels(black$Closure) <- c("unknown", "hacked", "raided", "scam", "voluntary") # sets "" to "unknown"
black <- black[order(black$Start),]

library(survival)
# plot(survfit(Surv(Age, Alive, type="right") ~ 1, data=black), xlab="Days active", ylab="Fraction of markets still active")

# generate fancy timeline of DNM openings/closing:
library(ggplot2)
png(file="~/wiki/doc/darknet-market/silk-road/1/gwern-marketlifetimes.png", width = 1200, height = 2500)
ggplot(black, aes(colour=Closure)) +
    geom_segment(aes(x=Start, xend=End, y=sort(decreasing=TRUE, reorder(Market,Start)), yend=sort(decreasing=TRUE, reorder(Market,Start))), size=3) +
    xlab("Open") + ylab("Market") + theme(legend.position="bottom", axis.text=element_text(hjust=1, size=20)) + scale_y_discrete(labels = sort(decreasing=TRUE, reorder(black$Market, black$Start)))
invisible(dev.off())

library(lubridate)
cmodel <- coxph(Surv(Age, Alive) ~ year(black$Start) + Multisig + I2P + Bitcoin+Litecoin+Dogecoin+Darkcoin + Codebase + Guns + Fraud + Hacks + Doxed, data = black, control=coxph.control(iter.max=10000)); cmodel

with(black, survdiff(Surv(Age,Alive)~as.factor(year(Start))))

cmodel2 <- coxph(Surv(Age, Alive) ~ as.factor(year(black$Start)) + ridge(Multisig, I2P, Bitcoin,Litecoin,Dogecoin,Darkcoin, Codebase, Guns, Fraud, Hacks, Doxed), data = black); summary(cmodel2)

cmodel <- coxph(Surv(Age, Alive) ~ strata(year(black$Start)), data = black); cmodel

black$URL <- black$Notes <- black$Market <- NULL

Example competing-risks model using startup data:

# https://blogs.wsj.com/venturecapital/2014/11/20/techstars-graduates-success-rates-what-the-numbers-show/
# data:application/octet-stream;charset=utf-8,Year%2C2007%2C2008%2C2009%2C2010%2C2011%2C2012%2C2013%2C2014%0AActive%2C2%2C2%2C7%2C15%2C36%2C68%2C121%2C120%0AFailed%2C3%2C4%2C5%2C11%2C9%2C10%2C5%2C0%0AAcquired%2C5%2C4%2C7%2C5%2C14%2C15%2C4%2C1
rates <- read.csv(stdin(),header=TRUE)
Year,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014
Active,2,2,7,15,36,68,121,120
Failed,3,4,5,11,9,10,5,0
Acquired,5,4,7,5,14,15,4,1

library(reshape2)
rates2 <- melt(rates)
colnames(rates2) <- c("Status", "Year", "Count")
rates2$Year <- as.integer(substring(as.character(rates2$Year), 2))
startups <- NULL
for (i in 1:nrow(rates2)) { startups <- rbind(data.frame(Status = rep(rates2[i,]$Status, rates2[i,]$Count), Year=rep(rates2[i,]$Year, rates2[i,]$Count)), startups) }
library(survival)
startups$Alive <- startups$Status == "Active"
startups$Age <- 2014 - startups$Year
sf <- survfit(Surv(Age, Alive, type="right") ~ 1, data=startups); summary(sf)
#  time n.risk n.event survival  std.err lower 95% CI upper 95% CI
#     0    473     120  0.74630 0.020007     0.708099      0.78656
#     1    352     121  0.48976 0.023007     0.446680      0.53699
#     2    222      68  0.33974 0.022007     0.299236      0.38573
#     3    129      36  0.24493 0.020778     0.207412      0.28924
#     4     70      15  0.19245 0.020269     0.156552      0.23657
#     5     39       7  0.15790 0.020407     0.122571      0.20342
#     6     20       2  0.14211 0.021202     0.106083      0.19038
#     7     10       2  0.11369 0.024715     0.074248      0.17409
plot(sf)
# https://i.imgur.com/76B7AxN.png

library(cmprsk)
sc <- cuminc(startups$Age, startups$Status, cencode="Active"); sc
# Estimates and Variances:
# $est
#                       1            2           3           4           5           6
# 1 Acquired 0.0134537767 0.0791545678 0.172799416 0.223444079 0.321616811 0.397350061
# 1 Failed   0.0141745147 0.0579750421 0.118175302 0.229593560 0.299716940 0.375450190
#
# $var
#                         1              2              3             4             5             6
# 1 Acquired 3.62406271e-05 0.000301240943 0.000805565675 0.00118663857 0.00205862260 0.00275961348
# 1 Failed   3.97263451e-05 0.000220342717 0.000570181024 0.00140171794 0.00200661959 0.00272841167
plot(sc, lty=1, color=c(3,2))
# https://i.imgur.com/Tafk9B0.png

DNMs:

library(cmprsk)
blackc <- with(black, cuminc(Age, Closure, cencode="alive")); blackc
# Estimates and Variances:
# $est
#                       200           400           600           800          1000          1200
# 1 unknown   0.01136363636 0.02272727273 0.03409090909 0.07954545455 0.10227272727 0.11363636364
# 1 hacked    0.11363636364 0.11363636364 0.11363636364 0.11363636364 0.12500000000 0.12500000000
# 1 raided    0.01136363636 0.06818181818 0.06818181818 0.06818181818 0.07954545455 0.07954545455
# 1 scam      0.25000000000 0.35227272727 0.39772727273 0.39772727273 0.39772727273 0.39772727273
# 1 voluntary 0.22727272727 0.26136363636 0.26136363636 0.27272727273 0.27272727273 0.27272727273
#
# $var
#                         200             400             600             800            1000            1200
# 1 unknown   0.0001292408729 0.0002616701315 0.0003911601132 0.0008988554115 0.0011441139596 0.0013003690983
# 1 hacked    0.0011623540396 0.0011623540396 0.0011623540396 0.0011623540396 0.0012886980693 0.0012886980693
# 1 raided    0.0001292408729 0.0007494488199 0.0007494488199 0.0007494488199 0.0009089372449 0.0009089372449
# 1 scam      0.0021690847025 0.0026530347066 0.0028036544633 0.0028036544633 0.0028036544633 0.0028036544633
# 1 voluntary 0.0020307752901 0.0022406509916 0.0022406509916 0.0023107700306 0.0023107700306 0.0023107700306

plot(blackc, lty=1, color=c(1:5), xlab="Days")

# confidence intervals:

plot(blackc, col=c(1:5), lty=1, xlab="Days", curvlab=c('hacked','raided','scam','voluntary'))
for (i in 1:4){
    cltype <- names(blackc)[i]
    ctm <- blackc[[cltype]]$time
    cest <- blackc[[cltype]]$est
    cvar <- blackc[[cltype]]$var
    clo <- cest ^ exp(-1.96*sqrt(cvar)/(cest*log(cest)))
    chi <- cest ^ exp(1.96*sqrt(cvar)/(cest*log(cest)))
    lines(ctm[2:length(ctm)], chi[2:length(ctm)], col=i, lty=2, lwd=0.7)
    lines(ctm[2:length(ctm)],clo[2:length(ctm)] , col=i, lty=2, lwd=0.7)
}

for (FAIL in c("raided", "hacked", "scam", "voluntary")) {
    cat(FAIL,":\n")
    print(with(black, crr(Age, Closure, cencode="alive", maxiter=100,
                    cov1= black[,c("Multisig", "Hacks", "Doxed", "Fraud", "Guns", "I2P", "Bitcoin", "Litecoin", "Dogecoin", "Darkcoin")],
                    failcode=FAIL)))
    cat("\n")
    }
# raided :
# convergence:  TRUE
# coefficients:
#  Multisig     Hacks     Doxed     Fraud      Guns       I2P   Bitcoin  Litecoin  Dogecoin  Darkcoin
#   0.98020   0.32990   1.17200  -0.04558  -0.24180 -17.32000 -15.50000 -11.17000 -28.49000 -27.65000
# standard errors:
#  [1] 0.9436 0.4524 0.8089 0.8893 1.0400 1.4230 2.1440 1.3780 2.8650 2.4430
# two-sided p-values:
# Multisig    Hacks    Doxed    Fraud     Guns      I2P  Bitcoin Litecoin Dogecoin Darkcoin
#  3.0e-01  4.7e-01  1.5e-01  9.6e-01  8.2e-01  0.0e+00  4.9e-13  4.4e-16  0.0e+00  0.0e+00
#
# hacked :
# convergence:  TRUE
# coefficients:
# Multisig    Hacks    Doxed    Fraud     Guns      I2P  Bitcoin Litecoin Dogecoin Darkcoin
#   0.4371   0.7562   1.0860   0.4956   0.8256 -11.6700   2.8160 -10.2200  -8.0430 -10.9900
# standard errors:
#  [1] 0.7206 0.3491 0.7689 0.6925 0.7205 0.8449 1.4230 1.2160 2.1830 0.9428
# two-sided p-values:
# Multisig    Hacks    Doxed    Fraud     Guns      I2P  Bitcoin Litecoin Dogecoin Darkcoin
#  0.54000  0.03000  0.16000  0.47000  0.25000  0.00000  0.04800  0.00000  0.00023  0.00000
#
# scam :
# convergence:  TRUE
# coefficients:
# Multisig    Hacks    Doxed    Fraud     Guns      I2P  Bitcoin Litecoin Dogecoin Darkcoin
# -0.10720  0.08057 -0.59050  0.43420 -0.71390 -1.00200 -2.03000 -1.22200 -0.67940  0.29050
# standard errors:
#  [1] 0.5164 0.2175 0.5461 0.3790 0.3868 1.1430 0.6974 0.8939 0.7397 0.4950
# two-sided p-values:
# Multisig    Hacks    Doxed    Fraud     Guns      I2P  Bitcoin Litecoin Dogecoin Darkcoin
#   0.8400   0.7100   0.2800   0.2500   0.0650   0.3800   0.0036   0.1700   0.3600   0.5600
#
# voluntary :
# convergence:  TRUE
# coefficients:
# Multisig    Hacks    Doxed    Fraud     Guns      I2P  Bitcoin Litecoin Dogecoin Darkcoin
#  -0.7029  -2.1160   0.2623  -0.9765   0.2492   2.1520   3.5960   1.8850  -7.7330 -13.3800
# standard errors:
#  [1] 0.5779 0.8878 0.6494 0.4879 0.4364 0.4149 1.3520 0.5346 1.9310 0.7828
# two-sided p-values:
# Multisig    Hacks    Doxed    Fraud     Guns      I2P  Bitcoin Litecoin Dogecoin Darkcoin
#  2.2e-01  1.7e-02  6.9e-01  4.5e-02  5.7e-01  2.1e-07  7.8e-03  4.2e-04  6.2e-05  0.0e+00

Time-varying confounds: Multisig, RoI, σ, hacked, doxed, sales… Solve with multi-state models? https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/msm/vignettes/msm-manual.pdf / http://web.inter.nl.net/users/rgeskus/CompRisk.pdf

Predictions

# Generate predictions of shutdown in next 6 / 12 months for the still-running marketplaces:

# You are not expected to understand this ugly hack. I don't either. But it *seems* to work...
# for background, see https://gwern.net/google-shutdown & https://gwern.net/silk-road#the-bet-bmr-or-sheep-to-die-in-a-year-by-oct-2014
library(rms)
conditionalProbability <- function (d, followupUnits, cmodel) {
    chances <- rep(NA, nrow(d)) # stash results

    for (i in 1:nrow(d)) {

        # extract chance of particular subject surviving as long as it has:
        beginProb <- survest(cmodel, d[i,], times=(d[i,]$Age))$surv
        if (length(beginProb)==0) { beginProb <- 1 } # set to a default

        tmpFollowup <- followupUnits # reset in each for loop
        while (TRUE) {
            # extract chance of subject surviving as long as it has + an arbitrary additional time-units
            endProb <- survest(cmodel, d[i,], times=(d[i,]$Age + tmpFollowup))$surv
            # survival curve may not reach that far! 'survexp returns 'numeric(0)' if it doesn't;
            # so we shrink down 1 day and try again until 'survexp' *does* return a usable answer
            if (length(endProb)==0) { tmpFollowup <- tmpFollowup - 1} else { break }
        }

        # if 50% of all subjects survive to time t, and 20% of all survive to time t+100, say, what chance
        # does a survivor - at exactly time t - have of making it to time t+100? 40%: 0.20 / 0.50 = 0.40
        chances[i] <- endProb / beginProb
    }
    return(chances)
}
# we can't regress on '~ 1' because `survest` crashes inside `conditionalProbability` (‽),
# so let's just toss in all the covariates to make it work despite none of them being well-justified...
cpmodel <- cph(Surv(Age, Alive) ~ Multisig + Litecoin+Dogecoin+Darkcoin + Guns + Fraud, data = black, x=TRUE, y=TRUE, surv=TRUE)
# report in %s rather than raw probabilities for easier reading
black$SixMonth <- round(digits=1, conditionalProbability(black, round(365/2), cpmodel) * 100)
black$OneYear  <- round(digits=1, conditionalProbability(black,          365, cpmodel) * 100)

## Predictions from 2015-01-02:
subset(black, Alive, select=c("Market", "SixMonth", "OneYear"))
#                      Market SixMonth OneYear
# 56             Dream Market    100.0   100.0
# 57                    Agora     65.6    65.6
# 58            Outlaw Market     72.3    72.3
# 59                evolution     17.5    17.5
# 60         BlackBank Market     13.1    13.1
# 61                   Area51     57.7    28.1
# 62 Middle Earth Marketplace     56.8    28.8
# 63                 Diabolus     34.7     0.0
# 64      Nucleus Marketplace     15.7     0.0
# 65                  Panacea     89.7    34.4
# 66                  Abraxas     85.9    51.2
# 67                 AlphaBay     92.5    48.4
## Evaluation: Agora/evolution/BlackBank/Area51/MEM/Nucleus/Panacea/Abraxas were all dead by August 2016.

## Predictions from 2016-08-18:
#                   Market SixMonth OneYear
# 67          Dream Market    100.0   100.0
# 69         Outlaw Market      0.0     0.0
# 74              AlphaBay    100.0     0.0
# 76                Tochka     53.7    53.7
# 77                Crypto     58.3    58.3
# 79           TheRealDeal      4.1     4.1
# 84 Darknet Heroes League     44.7    44.7

See Also

Appendix

Return & Volatility

dead <- as.Date(c("2013-10-02","2013-12-02","2013-09-20","2013-11-29","2013-11-04",
                  "2013-10-20","2013-10-28","2013-12-22","2014-01-01","2014-01-05",
                  "2014-02-01","2014-02-01","2014-02-07","2014-02-06","2014-02-04",
                  "2014-02-07","2014-02-11","2014-02-01","2014-03-23","2014-02-17",
                  "2014-03-24","2014-02-28","2014-03-13","2014-02-01","2014-02-28",
                  "2014-03-28","2014-03-01","2014-04-07","2014-04-19","2014-04-20",
                  "2014-04-20","2014-03-20"))
live <- as.Date("2014-04-24") # yesterday, default for live markets
volatility <- read.csv("http://btcvol.info/csv",
                       colClasses=c("Date","numeric","numeric","numeric", "numeric"))

# 30-day return
sapply(dead, function(d) { post   <- volatility[volatility$date==d,]$price;
                           pre    <- volatility[volatility$date==(d - 30),]$price;
                           return <- ((post - pre)/pre);
                           round(return, digits=3) } )
 [1] -0.216  4.170  0.103  4.759  0.859  0.327  0.506 -0.173 -0.258  0.127  0.056  0.056 -0.182
[14] -0.033 -0.104 -0.182 -0.233  0.056 -0.014 -0.263 -0.031 -0.351 -0.047  0.056 -0.351 -0.129
[27] -0.334 -0.275 -0.145 -0.129 -0.129 -0.056
sapply(live, function(d) { post   <- volatility[volatility$date==d,]$price;
                           pre    <- volatility[volatility$date==(d - 30),]$price;
                           return <- ((post - pre)/pre);
                           round(return, digits=3) } )
[1] -0.141

# 30-day volatility
sapply(dead, function(d) { round(volatility[volatility$date==d,]$volatility, digits=3) } )
 [1] 0.018 0.102 0.024 0.093 0.035 0.056 0.063 0.127 0.118 0.109 0.047 0.047 0.030 0.031 0.043 0.030
[17] 0.032 0.047 0.046 0.040 0.045 0.048 0.057 0.047 0.048 0.052 0.049 0.046 0.074 0.075 0.075 0.050
tail(volatility$volatility,n=1)
[1] 0.07408


  1. There are a fair number. An incomplete list as of mid-2014:

    • Finnish: Silkkitie: http://silkkitiehdg5mug.onion

    • French: French Dark Place 2.0: http://ruzh5shkcme2tpfk.onion

    • Polish: Torepublic Market: http://nco5ranerted3nkt.onion/forum/market.php; Forum: http://nco5ranerted3nkt.onion/forum/

    • Russian: Ramp: http://ramp2bombkadwvgz.onion

    • Russian: Hydra Market: http://hydraruehsdjjfud.onion/ (not to be confused with the Hungarian Hydra busted in Onymous)

    • Italian: http://babylonxjrtdyomy.onion (Babylon was raided in late July 2015)

    • Swedish: flugsvamp: http://yakwbcn5ou2wkzfx.onion

    • Magic Shop

    ↩︎
  2. Historical archive of DNstats’s statistics is available in my DNM archives.↩︎

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